I am just going to avoid the ones where we are off by 2 or 3 points in either the direction of the chalk or dog, at this time of year I don't think a 4-6 pt window is too unreasonable. So w/o further ado here are our "major" disagreements, most of which aren't too major.
Miss State won't likely be catching 25 points. That would be somewhat historical in the context of the last five years to have a home dog of that size in SEC play. Florida was laying 20 or more twice in the last five years (0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU!) and UGA was laying 24 to Vandy and 25 to UK (1-1 ATS) in that timespan and that was all that I saw in Phil Steele's mag. I did see a lot of -16s and -17s and that is about where I would expect this number. LSU has a date with VT the following week and is breaking in some new skill position pieces so I wouldn't look for this line to get to 20. I don't think a non-covering shutout by the Bengals is out of the question here. I could see them giving 18 and winning 17-0, its always possible.
I look for the Spartans to be laying a minimum of 17 points, if for no other reason than shear massive talent differential. Speed might not be that big of a gap as the Blazers have brought in some good athleticism in the last few years, but there appears to be a big edge in the trenches for MSU and they definitely have an edge in experience. I am a Dantonio fan as well. If the ball bounces their way a few times this season, they might even go bowling.
33 might prove to be a little bit high for VT with a trip to Baton Rouge over the immediate horizon, but you won't see me taking ECU at any price. That has shutout written all over it as the Hokies defense is going to be really frightening this season. I have them rated about even with USC on that side of the ball.
Kansas won't be a home dog, they'll be favored by a few, but probably not the full 8 that ISU was giving to Toledo in last years MAC @ B12 opener. Maybe -5 or so. CMU brings a lot back, but they lost a lot too, best deep threat, best pass blocker, center, best pass rusher, fastest LBer, best cover corner, head coach, and both coordinators. When you hear that they have 14 returning starters it doesn't sound so bad, but when you hear that they lose two of their three best WRs, two best OL, two best DL, and all three coaches, it paints a very different picture. This is a tough spot for them to walk into. I got to see Kerry Meier a few times last year and the one thing I do remember noting is that although he is a good size, he is certainly no statue. He gave Toledo all sorts of problems and he figures to do that to the Chips as well. Big 12 defenses don't care about that because their backers are fast enough to make up ground on a scrambling QB, but that can be a serious problem for MAC teams.
I would look for NU to be in the 17-21 department against a very young Reno squad. For all his misgivings off the field, Keller is dynamite on the field and those wideouts should be running wild through the Pack backfield.
Norther Illinois is gonna need a lot more than 14 to make that one interesting. The Huskies will need some luck just to reach the end zone. They caught the Hawkeyes in a dreadful spot last year (after UM) and even with Wolfe and company, they were unable to find 200 yards of offense. I see no reason why that would change this year. And as an added bonus for prospective Iowa backers, this year's starter Christensen played against NIU last year when Tate broke his thumb. I would expect this to look something like last year's Poinsettia Bowl, only the line will be much higher as the name Iowa (B10) resonates more than TCU (Mountain West.)
Oregon will be laying closer to 20, but I won't be taking them with trip to the Big House on deck.
Notre Dame won't be a home underdog. I have that line as Irish -2. Maybe it should only be 1.5 or just 1, but for a Gailey team to be a road chalk to a Weis team, my goodness, I think the planets would stop spinning and the end times would be upon us. As much as I like GT's blitz package defense, and I think Tashard Choice is very nice, its worth remembering that the Jackets will be one-dimensional in the early going this year. Notre Dame's talent level and speed are finally getting to a point where they can be competitive with most upper-echelon BCS teams after the dreadful late 90s. I think a lot of folks are gonna be betting on this game and I doubt I will be one of them.
Possible UCLA supporters should expect to lay closer to 20 than 10.
I am expecting to see Purdue favored by about a TD, but I am expecting to be betting on Toledo. In their last 5 chances as a home dog they are 5-0 SU, I believe.
ASU will be a favorite of much more than 11.5, but that game is certainly difficult to handicap. Tomey has things headed in the right direction there in terms of learning to run the football and bringing back the Desert Swarm approach to defense, but this will be the best team they have encountered in his time there other than maybe Boise last season. Dennis Erickson tends to have an immediate impact with teams before wearing out his welcome a couple years down the line.
UTEP -1 or Pick looks better to me. They will as good as their QB on offense, love the addition of Rouse, but their defense might go from bad to worse - if that's possible.
SMU better be catching double digits or something is seriously wrong with the world.
Good thread.
