2.28

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Early look ..not sure if I will place this now or wait till the AM. Not a big believer in the value of the best line anymore 98% of the time it doesnt seem to matter...

Over 202.5 Denver @ Orlando {6units}

For all the talk about the ORL defense and style b4 the Bulls game they allowed 110 @ Det , 100 @ NYK , 93 @ NJ , 113 @ Tor and 116 @ Milw..
We dont need to talk about Denvers non existant defense. Orl getting some bodies back. The 1st meeting had 207 pts in ORL with a 208 total...there was no AI. Denv last 4 at home 113,114 ,111,114..nuggs look cheap at home since ORL stinks away and caught Chi in tough spot...

Looking at a strong play in UNDER 198.5 NYK( 6 unit strong)...that just seems way to high...also NYK ML..road team has won like 6 straight but waiting on Lee status.....also like over 201.5 Seattle with Livingston out cause it seems the few he missed there was more scoring. If Chi attempts to play defense it will get ugly...might look to play Suns 1st H after the huge comebackmomentum should carry over and Philly struggles vs the West

BOL bedtime
 
nice i was laying on the bed thinking about this total like you said magic hasnt been top notch on defense lately and we know about denver
 
I dun think the line will come down. By looking at GS's away loses, Chicago's bounce back spot and the revenge factor, mostly will be on Bulls or no play.
 
DAMN SPORT, those totals r lookin f*ckin great. ur prolly my fav. capper along wit the mob boss. i know u like the fondy style but i think u could make more loot by cutting down on plays, and that doesnt mean u have to increase ur wager on ur few plays, but instead of searching for action that is not there, just cap a few games u like more in depth.
 
Thanks Duy and Satyr : GL

jimbo : Definetly my own worse enemy at times...adding marginal plays and like I said all those plays seem to find ways to lose. Its not really about action cause alot of these guys I really dont watch the games I have that much. Its more about being able to pick a winner and not having the confidence to wager on it. Like not being able to pass up something cause I feel like I have the correct answer...I am a headcase no denying....I want better consistency...I get 'trapped' by ridiculous runs where I go like 17-3 over 2 or 3 days.....need a better line on determing what andwhat not to play....thanks for the compliments though....BOL

Ray / Austin: With ya here bro...cant see why it would come down by GSW has that potentila label that suckers in the betting public (myself included). ...just saw -12 yikes...BOL
 
So far:

Over 202.5 @ Denver {6units} (only 2u in so far could get cheaper)
Under 198.5 @ Boston {2units} & Under 197 @ Boston {4units}

Looks like I will have both at different levels think I can scoop up the Den ov @ 202 right now....
 
take knicks and jazz ! Boston has 14 wins and Memphis 15 wins gotta lose for DURANT sweetstakes !
 
Cake :

Looks like the Brand prop is based on averages nothin more..

career vs SEA 27.5 P+R(29 last game in limited minutes and 23 in 1st meeting)
Home thsi yr 30.4 P+R
1 day rest 29.4 P + R

he has fallen below 30 in 5 of 6...and maybe Wilcox gets up playing a former teammate...

Same with Starbury basically based on his avgs. This though stands out as a situation where he may excel. He hasnt been contributing many boards or assists but 3 straight with 20+ points sure helps...

Like them both but would rather play Starbury prop...Brand he is probably good for 19 and 10 but your paying -130...for a coin flip...
 
played them both already i see EB dropping 22 at least tonight im flat betting tonight so i have Orlando Magic/Denver Nuggets o202.5,Miami Heat +3.5,Atlanta Hawks/New Orleans Hornets under 190.5,EB P+R o30,Starbury P+R+A o22.5,New York Knicks/Boston Celtics u196.5 if you care
 
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SportsNut do you bet on a lot games in baseball too same unit wise?
 
I care cake...like to know what I am rooting for...

baseball yes...I have to say that real disappointed in myself in many ways this year with BB. Should be doing alot better then I am. Not complaining but damn I have been sloppy this season...

I have to reorganize myself once bases start...watching the Muts now....on the comeback trail ...
 
and keith complaining...the only guys who run are the pitchers...damn I 'hate' when I see Spring Training pitchers....guy like Adkins throwing 86, 87 having a ML job....back in the day that would be an awful day for me...thats what I threw in my 1st college appearance back in FtMyers...ahh the memories...hell 10,11 years ago I was cracking 91,92,93 on those guns and fields..wish I was raised in warm weather...

They have all quirky exercises to get in shape during the spring...
 
Plays : 5-1 +20.80

Over @ Denver {6units} ( at 202 ,202.5 and 203) +6.00
Under @ Boston {6units} ( at 198.5 and 197 (4u)) +6.00

Sixers +8.5 {6units} ML +320 {1/2unit} +7.60
Under 209 Sixers {3units} +3.00

Grizz 1st H +3 {2units} Win ML +180 game {1/2unit} +1.50
Over 214 {3units} -3.30

NO / Den / Hous ML parlay {1.5 units} -1.50
something like -260 /-220/-220

Lean : Wash -2 Butler's status holding me back , Bulls -12 Stephen Jacksons status , NYK +4.5 fishy move and NY is real shorthanded 3players out. ,

Notes:
Why take Philly? Cause I am a glutton for punishment and worse a sucker for an attractive dog . I have 4 subsets of reason for why I see value in this but none is the line is to high.
1) After the All Star break in which 3 PHO players particpated in teh long weekend this will now be there 6th game in 8 days all in different venues and the fifth away.
2) Since the New Year begun and I believe this is due largely to the SUns short rotation they are just 1-4 ATS on B2B games most of which were double road games. The lone way the OT game @ Portland. They snuck by Tor 100-98 , they failed to cover 9 in NY winning by 5 , they lost SU to Minny in a 4th in 5 spot and failed to cover the DD at home vs Boston right after the break. So I think they could be wearing thin.
3) Last nite was a spirited comeback that had to take its toll. Not only that Diaw returned an reaggravated his injury which is leaving him as doubtful now. Then Marion and Amare both pulled up lame. Marion dislocated a pinky and bruised thigh. Where Amare suffered only a cramped calf but said he lost eleveation after that. Remember Nash came back stating he was not 100% as well...shows doesnt it!
4) The last is Phillys defense at home. It has been real solid execpt the Dal game okay PHO is in Dal category. (hunter and Dalembert)The difference is the situation tehy are meeting in . So they wont need 110 pts IMO cover 95-100 should be good enough ...to me playing at Philly is just about the same as MSG...difference being NY pulls out the close ones and Philly doesnt. But I do admit the teams like Dal , SA and Det are the ones who really gave Philly trouble..


Thinking about possible being riksy and going 1st H Suns with carry over momentum from yesterday . Interesting note is how Suns have not performed well ATS since 1/1 with this being the 1st 3 game ATS streak since 2 arlier ones...

Really like the under 209 playing that and maybe 1st H as well...
 
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With you on the over in denver tonight nut..
GL with the rest of your plays.
I thought about philly but then came back to reality.. I liked the over there more than a side..GL
 
Great thoughts on the Philly game...Cant say that I disagree with any of it....May be my dog of the day....

What about Orlando Nut? You dont like them in this spot?
 
SportsNut said:
Plays :

Over @ Denver {6units} ( at 202 ,202.5 and 203)
Under @ Boston {6units} ( at 198.5 and 197 (4u))

Sixers +8.5 {5units} ML +320 {1/2unit}


Notes:
Why take Philly? Cause I am a glutton for punishment and worse a sucker for an attractive dog . I have 4 subsets of reason for why I see value in this but none is the line is to high.
1) After the All Star break in which 3 PHO players particpated in teh long weekend this will now be there 6th game in 8 days all in different venues and the fifth away.
2) Since the New Year begun and I believe this is due largely to the SUns short rotation they are just 1-4 ATS on B2B games most of which were double road games. The lone way the OT game @ Portland. They snuck by Tor 100-98 , they failed to cover 9 in NY winning by 5 , they lost SU to Minny in a 4th in 5 spot and failed to cover the DD at home vs Boston right after the break. So I think they could be wearing thin.
3) Last nite was a spirited comeback that had to take its toll. Not only that Diaw returned an reaggravated his injury which is leaving him as doubtful now. Then Marion and Amare both pulled up lame. Marion dislocated a pinky and bruised thigh. Where Amare suffered only a cramped calf but said he lost eleveation after that. Remember Nash came back stating he was not 100% as well...shows doesnt it!
4) The last is Phillys defense at home. It has been real solid execpt the Dal game okay PHO is in Dal category. (hunter and Dalembert)The difference is the situation tehy are meeting in . So they wont need 110 pts IMO cover 95-100 should be good enough ...to me playing at Philly is just about the same as MSG...difference being NY pulls out the close ones and Philly doesnt. But I do admit the teams like Dal , SA and Det are the ones who really gave Philly trouble..


Thinking about possible being riksy and going 1st H Suns with carry over momentum from yesterday . Interesting note is how Suns have not performed well ATS since 1/1 with this being the 1st 3 game ATS streak since 2 arlier ones...

Really like the under 209 playing that and maybe 1st H as well...
Click to expand...
nice write up the last three suns game on the road i been watching close all those covers been coming down to the last two minutes vs TWolves barbosa hit like two threes late to seal the 6 point cover then @ atl hawks just went cold late and started fouling and we seen what happen yesterday vs INDY

only reason why im scared to play sixers lots of BS lately with these suns games for lucky covers
 
Waiting on Caron Butlers status if he goes I like Wash in some capacity...they were -11 last meeting minus Shaq and Wade and blow them out early...so if Butler were to play I owuld think this should be 4 or 4.5. I do worry about Wash playing 6 in 8 and B2b though...caution...you cant expect Miami to win on the road just like in NY they find ways to lose....

Looking at Mem over 214 and Grizz 1st Half....

Lean Chi -12 waiting on injuries

Lean Denver since ORL struggles there
 
Cake...true they always seem to be right near the number...the only difference is can point out is those other games the line was a bit high and here abit low...you would think if Indy is 6.5 or 7 then Philly owuld be more then 8, 8.5 especially since they were in NY. They were 8.5 , 9 in ATL as well...not sure I can explain but looking at those numbers they seeme high where as +8 seems short...

Trout : I really dont trust either...just gonna ride the over...I tend to actually like Denver but not enough.....BOL

Farm...I should sniff some reality...keep me in check...I like the under what scares me is the lack of defense on B2B's but this game I dont think breaks 200.. 102 -97..GL
 
Nut,
Philly has cooled their scoring for sure. I just don't know if the suns have a blowout when philly raises the white flag tonight..
If they keep the run pace this game goes over.. Suns on a long spell here as well..
I was saying over because I only expect philly to keep up for the first half, and the suns run up the score.
GL tonight
 
adding Chicago Bulls -12 i think this can be similar the game @ home vs Memphis UGLYYYYYYYYYYY

Sixers +9 too
 
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Thanks Steed! BOL yourself....

Thinking about adding that Cakeoff...just waiting on Stephen Jacksons status..BOL

Farm guess all my logic boils down to Philly competiting...
 
Thats about all I may add 3 units on Wash if I can find about Butler.....its WED which is basketball nite for me so running out the door. Did my best to edit my plays window/thread...squeezed an extra unit on Philly and now its only 7..maybe wise maybe dumb.....

Hopefully be back around 8:30 starts!!
 
jamison out bulter is dressed but might not play is what i heard on the wizards pre game
 
Thanks guys. I didnty get involved I was rushing to get to my hoops game but I do very much appreciate the help...
 
SIXERS !!!!!!!! you cap it perfect SportsNut you even liked the under
 
Thanks Cake...I have to admit it feels good pulling 2 plays liek that out of my ass with a rationalized explanation...how the long the euphoria lasts depends on the totals..nice hit on Miami and thanks for the update
 
We got the same ML parlay, i just want Houston to give us at least a chance of winning this. I can't believe they're down by 10 to the Raptors now
 
our over in Colorado could use a boost in the 2nd half :D.

:shake: good call on the under in Boston.
 
Satyr said:
our over in Colorado could use a boost in the 2nd half :D.

:shake: good call on the under in Boston.
Click to expand...


Absolutely. Freakin Iverson is killin us. 2-10. Thought he was going to defer to Melo. He's got more shot attempts than he does.
 
Lackluster FT's as well...that kills momentum IMO..its a downer to miss a FT and plus to hit one especially caused the action is stopped so takes away from the flow of the game..so if ur missing its a big negative IMo...was hoping for 93-95 at half..we have life though..

Thanks Satyr. Even though it came down to the end and maybe some pushed I thought it was a good call. Had there not been that strange last 90 seconds of the 3rd quarter it wouldnt have been that close...they scored 14 points I believe in that span...136 to 150..in 90 seconds..really u would expect 7 pts...I would never say that I didnt get the lucky bounce there
 
j3pj3p said:
We got the same ML parlay, i just want Houston to give us at least a chance of winning this. I can't believe they're down by 10 to the Raptors now
Click to expand...


You have not seen TOR play this year? They were extremely flat last game and I guess they decided to make up for that...they are VERY good. Talentwise few, if any, can keep up with them...

:drink:
 
I agree swede, their European look surely looks refreshing in the big league, they have depth and are a well rounded, talented team. They could go far if they start stepping up on the road once the playoffs start.
 
Satyr said:
I agree swede, their European look surely looks refreshing in the big league, they have depth and are a well rounded, talented team. They could go far if they start stepping up on the road once the playoffs start.
Click to expand...

They are still young and need experience, hence their roadwoes. I guess most americans hasn´t heard of Garbajosa but that time will soon be over...
 
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