1st ROUND SAMMY SERIES PLAYS-- Its Time-

[Sammy Meatballs]

1st round PROP- Philly to lose 3-0 series-

I am hoping Philly plays Boston which I think they will because Philly is not winning a game this year anymore.

This team I can tell has QUIT, they dont run, they dont care, I dont know why, I mean they are giong to playoffs and should be pumped up--

It seems to me that this team really wants to go and Play golf or do something else. Perhaps they hate each other, perhaps they hate the coach, but for certain they are DONE---

This team walks the ball up the court in slow motion and really wont score in a half court game--

If they go to Boston, its 2-0 guaranteed, then all that has to happen is Boston wins game 3, which is very good chance also--

I cant say that for any other team because its playoffs and they all have a PUNCHERS chance for an UPSET---

However Philly just doesnt want to play, It is clear, Andre Miller is playing like he is 300 years old-
I am not sure if they are burned out, or what is up, but for sure they are BEATEN men, even the Raps dominated them, and they basically put no fight up at all-
The raps 3rd stringers were dunking all over Philly--

If they had any visions of post season success they would have done everything to avoid Boston and play Orlando--

This team cannot win vs a good team on the road and will go down 2-0 and then QUIT at home-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

1st round PROP- Portland to beat Spurs 3-0 or 3-1

If these 2 teams match up, Portland will take the first 2 at home and then eliminate them in 3 of 4 games--

Spurs are just too old and Duncan is falling apart and hurting-

This is a match of young studs vs aging unathletic players.. ROY will dominate that series and POrtland just stops parker and its an easy series win for them--

I am thinking spurs may get one win at home, sympathy win and then POrtland takes them out for sure in 4 games--

 

[pigeon]

playoff series are best of 7 kiddo

 

[pigeon]

playoff series are best of 7 kiddo

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

1st round is best of 5

 

[pigeon]

maybe in 1970... check yourself

 

[pigeon]

how did atlanta take boston to 7 games in the first round last year?

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

First round is Best of 7...

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

THanks guys, I have re revise my strategies then, good to know that--

I could have sworn they were best of 5, but I vaguely remember it may ahve changed, I am happier now, cause I know there is no chance of an upset now----

 

[rod_steel]

No way Blazers sweep the Spurs if they meet

 

[Satyr]

:36_11_6: LMFAO at 3:1.


Anyways, I agree Sammy, I'm a Spurs fan but these guys probably gave their all, Manu is out and Timmy can barely stand. Start the playoffs in a month, Spurs have a shot but right now they just seem drained. They are still a very well coached team with a few solid individuals but they have changed dramatically over the past few seasons, they're now not so focused in the D (especially interior D) and shoot more treys than ever with Mason leading the way.

I think Portland is the better team right now.

 

[Satyr]

playoff series are best of 7 kiddo

:36_11_6::36_11_6:

Epic

 

[Satyr]

btw again I agree Sammy, Philly is DONE. The way they played in Toronto today is beyond me. Boston sweeps em unless Sixers step up all of a sudden which I don't see happening.

 

[blownaway]

there's also the possibility that they are just waiting for the playoffs to start knowing they already clinched

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

there's also the possibility that they are just waiting for the playoffs to start knowing they already clinched

No that is not true, because if they were they would be trying everything possible to get the highest seed--
WHy would they want to play Boston?

Playing Orlando or moving up and going vs Miami or Atlanta looks better to me-

They have QUIT, tough to explain why, but there is more to this than meets the eye, maybe someone screwed someones wife or the team quit on the coach, because they are not doing the right thing for the playoffs---

Orlando is different, they are still beating the good teams in big home games, I believe they just struggled and were scared of Detroit, Van Gundy knows they have NO shot vs detroit--

the whole Detroit front line owns HOWARD, he is Detroits Bitch, they have his underwear and own that guy bigtime- He is owned that much that Orlando started making a habit of losing to the worst teams in the NBA-

Orlando can at least still play when it counts, even though if TURK is out with Nelson gone and the Overrated Howard, they can lose also--

 

[Smokedawg]

What happened was Thad Young got hurt

How well they play in the playoffs depends on if he comes back healthy or not

But 'how well' is a relative term...Thad being healthy is the difference between them maybe winning two games and getting swept....they have no chance to win a series at all

but that being said, id rather play boston and hope KGs hurt than play Orlando...Orlando would destroy the sixers...theyd make about 100 threes en route to the sweep

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thanks Smokedawg for a good unbiased post, nothing better than seeing the TRUTH on your home team--

Good stuff

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

No way Blazers sweep the Spurs if they meet

RODNEY- I think Blazers win in 5-- Spurs win one game out of first 4 MAX-

HOW DO I KNOW THAT? Because if spurs didnt win 1 game that means they won 2 games out of 4, and that is 50% and they SUCK and will not win 50% of the first 4 games vs POrtland---

Spurs are done BRO, they are losing on the road for sure going down 0-2 and then losing one at home, go down 3-1 and lose in 5 games--

By the way when Spurs lose series they often lose in 5 games- Lakers usually beat them that same way---

Spurs get one at home, and lose in 5--

If I can get that PROP I will be all over that one also- no way in hell spurs are 2-2 with portland after 4 games--

 

[B.A.R.]

Best of 7 first rounds started in 2003 fwiw

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Gonna get one in early-- I am taking Lakers to win the WESTERN Conference Championships--

I debated about taking the Lakers to win it all, but one thing I dont like is that they will be playing probably the 2nd best team in the league and likely will not have HOME COURT--
Although I think they can beat the Cavs quite easily with the size differential I decided to take the Lakers to win the Western Conference Finals---

Reason-- I am a math wizard and was eating some SUSHI and I realized Okay let me think about this in pure numbers--
If lakers are going to LOSE, and they always have game 7 at HOME which I believe they CAN WIN vs any West team--

For someone to win in 6 games, they would have to WIN ALL THEIR Home Games vs Lakers and also WIN one in LAKERS Stadium----

I think its going to be hard to WIN IN LAKER STADIUM and also Lakers have shown this year they can WIN on road vs good teams, Boston and Cavs and when they Lose its always by a few POINTS and the games are tight in the 4th qtr--
Much of the year was without Andrew BMW BYNUM also, and he is back making the Lakers bigger than most teams by a landslide--

SO I thought about this and realized that 2 teams have a SHOT to do THIS-
I have ruled out SPURS, Orleans, Dallas and DENVER- Denver is same TEAM just a Little Better--

HOUSTON OR PORTLAND- Lakers own Houston anyway and can beat them, PORTLAND is hot and good, and plays Lakers good at home, but is not good themselves on the ROAD--

SO my biggest fear is PORTLAND- They can beat us at HOME, and we can beat them AT HOME- BUT WE HAVE HOME COURT ADV---

Perhaps I overlooked Utah but I dont think they can beat us even though out of all teams they seem to match up better than rest of Western teams, but The way they are playing, and road WOES I cant see them doing it either--

Portland is young has no Playoff VETS, Houston cant get out of the first ROUND- The 2 teams expected to challenge Lakers were HORNETS and SPURS, and both really suck now--- SPurs are injured and Hornets are just too THIN with no depth-- This is a year where I think lakers toughest series IMO may be the series vs JAZZ if that makes any sense at all!

So eating some SUSHI at a restaurant, I took it to GO and hurried home and played the Lakers to win the Western Conference Championships--

I played it as a regular PLAY as I dont want to attract too much HEAT with limits but my first Series PLAY this season-- I rarely ever play any Chalk but in this spot I see Tremendous Value because the line was based on Spurs challenging Lakers and Hornets also being GOOD- It worked out that both suck so Lakers are looking like they have a better path to the finals.

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td colspan="4">

</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#666666"><td>[FONT=arial,helvetica]Team/Player [/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=arial,helvetica]Event [/FONT]</td> <td align="center">[FONT=arial,helvetica] Amt Wagered [/FONT]</td> <td align="center">[FONT=arial,helvetica] Amt to Win [/FONT]</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"><td>[FONT=arial,helvetica]LA Lakers[/FONT]</td> <td>[FONT=arial,helvetica]NBA West Conference[/FONT]</td> <td align="center">[FONT=arial,helvetica]$9000[/FONT]</td> <td align="center">[FONT=arial,helvetica]$4000[/FONT]</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="4">1 total futures</td></tr></tbody></table>
I will likely have some more First round Series Parlays that I am working on already. It will consist of a SUPER PARLAY involving likely Cavs-Boston and perhaps going vs Spurs or Hornets depending on who they play---
I dont think either Spurs and Hornets have enough to win series vs good teams.
Also will be going vs Philly hoping they play Boston as they are done fast in that series-

 

[wreck]

How many threads do you need to make?

cluttering the forum.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

How many threads do you need to make?

cluttering the forum.

If you want to Win my friend you will not complain and just tail along and listen as the winners will come your way :smiley_acbe:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

If anyone reads this that is in charge, can they get rid of this avatar and bring my normal one back please.

 

[orangemonk]

Reason-- I am a math wizard


do I need to link the game show 3 doors always switch thread?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Reason-- I am a math wizard


do I need to link the game show 3 doors always switch thread?

Well I got that right BRO, didnt I correctly have the answer to that problem-

I can do calculations in my head with QTR live betting NBA, with regards to possessions based on time in the game and scoring outputs and can spot if a line is off by 1 to 1.5 to 2 points based on how much time is left in the QTR-

Guys have computers to run these programs, I run them in my head BRO-

Although I wish I had the computer, Lol I am like an air traffic controller, have to pay close attention and can have NO distractions at all when I am in the Capping Command Centre-- :shake:

People often ignore the importance of math and calculations when wagering especially LIVE, that is what it is all about friends.

 

[mogo]

Reason-- I am a math wizard


do I need to link the game show 3 doors always switch thread?

don't forget he was eating sushi when he thought of all this....

must be the NEW brain food! <label for="rb_iconid_14">

</label>

 

[CapTwo]

where are the strippers?

:smiley_acac:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

don't forget he was eating sushi when he thought of all this....

must be the NEW brain food! <label for="rb_iconid_14">

</label>

No JOKE, Diet is very important, eating ALMONDS and drinking enough Water is critical-

If you feel like shit, your mood is effected and then YOUR DECISIONS with CAPPING IS ALSO SHIT AND EFFECTED--

Everything boils down to your MOOD and WELL BEING and mental state---

That is why any Good Capper must do weights, run and get fresh air, go to the local stadium and run some Stairs drills, do anything to get blood flowing-

So the sushi may have helped, but I started to see numbers and realized IMO that I broke it down and realized how the Lakers would lose, and it doesnt seem likely as I explained it above---

If they lose a game at laker Stadium and lose all 3 ROAD games to a Western TEAM I will gladly shake that teams hand and give them credit--
IN case you didnt know, Laker Stadium is a hard place to win at, and Lakers love playing at Laker Stadium.

However I am CONFIDENT that i will be the one celebrating and Partying with some new strippers.

 

[Joe Public]

That is why any Good Capper must do weights, run and get fresh air, go to the local stadium and run some Stairs drills, do anything to get blood flowing-

So that's why Fondy's so goddamn good. Dammit, I knew it had to be something.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

where are the strippers?

:smiley_acac:

My friend the Strippers are easy, its so simple all you need is MONEY and they are yours, its not rocket science, its no different than renting a Vending machine for your home, you basically RENT their services also--
:cheers:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

That is why any Good Capper must do weights, run and get fresh air, go to the local stadium and run some Stairs drills, do anything to get blood flowing-

So that's why Fondy's so goddamn good. Dammit, I knew it had to be something.

Fondy does stair Drills at Lambeau Stadium---

Ever see 2 for the MONEY- the guy Bernard Lang was working out all the time and pumped up, you need to work out , it is critical for success.:tiphat:

 

[HUNT]

so for the mentally challenged what was the price you laid?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

so for the mentally challenged what was the price you laid?

9 to win 4 dollars-----

It works out to basically -225 if you wanna think about it that way--


HUNT- I rarely take CHALK, but when I see a price that I believe is VERY LOW and I believe there is VALUE I have to ACT ON THAT PRICE--

In this case I believe the price of -225 is very Reasonable with WHAT I HAVE going for me in this spot--

Last year IMO was harder for Lakers, They had NO BMW BYNUM and no ARIZA and also UTAH and SPURS were HEALTHY and AWESOME--

This year both UTAH and SPURS SUCK and all that is left is Portland, Houston and Denver-- All 3 of these teams have no playoff experience and wins and just are YOUNG and not ready to win on road vs best team in WEST-
Only minor concern would be Portland, but they cant win in Lakers and i Know we can win in Portland, and we have HOME court baby, LAKER STADIUM YEAH :tiphat::tiphat::tiphat::tiphat:
SO that is why I played this HUNT-:shake: I hope to go and fly to Laker Stadium and watch my boys clinch the western conference title if I am not too busy with playoffs action.

 

[orangemonk]

ahhh my bad sammy i thought you were the one getting it wrong for some reason but it was Frito. my apologies :shake:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

ahhh my bad sammy i thought you were the one getting it wrong for some reason but it was Frito. my apologies :shake:

No worries Brother, that was a tricky little problem, but the most ironic thing in school I was an average student, got pretty much C's and some D's and basically attended a quarter of classes and never did homework or took notes- So i wasnt exactly ripping it up in scholastic studies- I was in a school with some REAL NERDS- like everyone had over 95% average, big time Brainiacs--

Long story but 2 courses I took were Accouting and Finite(statistics) Course and I got the highest marks in the Class in BOTH- I beat all the NERDS, because that was interesting to ME- I scored 97% in Accouting and 98% In Finite Statistics-
The teacher accused me of Cheating and Copying from an Asian Nerd who sat beside me-
I told him how could I cheat off him, as I got 5% higher than him on the TEST?

MORAL- To be good at something, you have to know you are GOOD and understand that in YOUR BRAIN and USE the PASSION to get the results--

Capping is nothing more than Money Management-End result is MONEY management and how you CONTROL your money and your AMOUNTS-
99% of people do this completely WRONG---
Once you master this skill you can take it to NEW LEVELS--

THe only reason people are LOSERS in this game is because they Listen to others who say NO ONE CAN WIN and they Have a LOSING Attitude--
TO win you just need a Winning attitude and understand that you are damn good and CAN WIN-
When you start to win for example 25 out of 30 days on average with no issues you will understand what I am talking about--

The above bet I made is a very SMART bet, as is part of bankroll management principles, it is roughly 0.5% of my bankroll, which is the way to do it- I could have bet more but the CORRECT THING to do is to bet the 0.5% of my roll on this BET-

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

EMOTION TEST--- To eliminate EMOTION from CAPPING, next time you are DRUNK and feel like doing something Stupid, calling an EX GIRL or anything against better judgement- You have to have that ability to just walk away and do nothing, when someone does something to you or pisses you off you must walk away-
I am at the point where even DRUNK I can turn off the EMOTIONS even after a tough late LOSS, it doesnt effect me anymore, and that is the hardest thing to do IN LIFE-
Ex- If you are drunk and feel like caling a woman, TRY TO JUST SAY NO DONT DO IT, I need to strengthen my emotions and HAVE Control over them-
Emotions in this Game is what KILLS people and EMPTIES BANKROLLS-

I make it a habit if I lose a game I laugh about it and have a good Laughing session about it- That is crucial--

NOTE--- I can guarantee on MY NAME that almost over 95% of BETS that people lose on or on losing days-- that The reason they lost is not the TEAMS and themselves---

This is important, YOU MADE THE DECISION, so its your FAULT---

You must look at yourself and SAY okay I made the decisions, its my FAULT, I JUST NEED TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS and I WILL WIN--

I have a erasable Board on MY WALL and AFTER A LOSS i write down I lost, i made an ERROR and WHY IT WAS MADE--

Ex- I took Raptors -9.5 live BETTING-- ERROR ON MY PART- NO DISCIPLINE- CHASE BET-
Ex- Took an over 183.5 LIve- ERROR took it too early, failed to realize Detroit would slow the game down-- Rookie mistake--

Overall ROOKIE AMATEUR ERRORS were made--

1- No discipline-
2- Too many bets-

My board was empty for the longest time as I was sick of seeing mistakes on it, so I noticed that my board for the last 6 months had times where in a week there would be less than 5 mistakes on it--
THere started to be less and less mistakes on it--

SO I started to WRITE down Lessons after WINNERS and what I was doing Correct-

Ex- 1- Great patience
2- Good knowledge of teams
3- Good amount of games played
4- GOod understanding of teams involved-
5- Perfect amounts played on games-
6- Good elimination of Media and learning true value of teams-

This is how serious I take it, I take it to those Levels, because that is the correct way to WIN and to do it--

i write on my board-- PRe game stragies--

Ie- Live betting- Detroit vs Bulls- Scenarios- POssible OVer if pace is fast--
- POssible moneyline Dog on Detroit if winning

Strategies- Will look at hitting some first qtr overs- look for games involving smaller players and run and gun teams-

Strategies- Bet the Obvious- ie- suns first qtr overs- Gstate overs--

Strategies- look to bet any good home team at a low line on live betting- MAX PLAY IF I FIND THIS ONE--

SO I already know exactly what I am looking for before I work for the day-

Strategy- SCALP them and middle them-- I have different outlets, that I regularly SCALP for big amounts and get free chances at making on one side-

 

[Joe Public]

The above bet I made is a very SMART bet, as is part of bankroll management principles, it is roughly 0.5% of my bankroll,

This bet is .5% of your bankroll? $9000 is 0.5% of your bankroll?

Now, I'm certainly no math wizard like yourself, but . . . um, congratulations. I guess that is I guess the right word for it. I suppose Covers would be the other word for it. But I'll stick with the former.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

The above bet I made is a very SMART bet, as is part of bankroll management principles, it is roughly 0.5% of my bankroll,

This bet is .5% of your bankroll? $9000 is 0.5% of your bankroll?

Now, I'm certainly no math wizard like yourself, but . . . um, congratulations. I guess that is I guess the right word for it. I suppose Covers would be the other word for it. But I'll stick with the former.

That is my roll JOE, and I do have a partner who is 50% PARTNER but has no say at all in any picks, so my percentage is half, but I control everything and he is an equal partner, I trust him so this works and he is a Doctor lol out of all things.

BRO, the best advice i can give to anyone is to put a good amount and treat it like a business-- That is the only way to WIN-
I dont play scared, I have a good roll, but I want more brother, I need a bigger roll than that.
I would like nothing more to bet more on Lakers, but out of principle I have to stick to exact percentages-
people use 2%- I use 0.5 %-- I believe I understand Variance better than anyone in this world due to my advanced math background-
I bet conservatively and need a huge roll to work with.

To win at this game your MONEY has to be STRONG and not SCARED and you need a good roll, finding a partner with MONEY is a good idea, especially if you both have money, because it is not hard to raise a few hundred g's without issue--

 

[BRARSTAR]

holy shit 9000 is .5% of your total bankroll wow

 

[Joe Public]

I dont play scared, I have a good roll, but I want more brother, I need a bigger roll than that.

You need a bigger roll? Than the one you "have now"?

Let me just see if I have this right, if $9000 is .5% of your roll, 1% of your roll is $18,000. Stick with me here, because--and again, I'm no math genius so it takes me a minute or two to use all my fingers to add this up--but that would mean 10% of your roll is $180,000, bringing 100% of your roll to $1.8 million dollars.

Wait, sorry, my mistake, that's totally believable, carry on.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

holy shit 9000 is .5% of your total bankroll wow

This is a regular Series play for me which is 0.5% of total roll, that is a lot of the roll--- reason is because its still $9000.

I dont bet 0.5% on each game, I bet anywhere from 0.01% of my roll on a typical NBA play, I would never bet that much on NBA reg games--

Series plays have a 0.5% roll valued to them--- I will go a MAX of 1%--

regular plays are anywhere from 0.001% of roll to even smaller so roughly about $1000 to $5000 K max which is very rare, maybe less than ten times a year unless its a middle then I go ALL IN HIT THE LIMITS FOR SURE-

I will have some more series plays for sure----

In total I expect to have maybe another 1% on first round which is another $20,0000----

i know what I am doing so to me I am confident and everything will work out very good for me :cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

I dont play scared, I have a good roll, but I want more brother, I need a bigger roll than that.

You need a bigger roll? Than the one you "have now"?

Let me just see if I have this right, if $9000 is .5% of your roll, 1% of your roll is $18,000. Stick with me here, because--and again, I'm no math genius so it takes me a minute or two to use all my fingers to add this up--but that would mean 10% of your roll is $180,000, bringing 100% of your roll to $1.8 million dollars.

Wait, sorry, my mistake, that's totally believable, carry on.

I wish BROTHER-- lol only I can wish it was that BIG-- No wonder you were talking about COVERS--

10% is around 18k bringing 100% of the roll to roughly 200K----- not 1.8 Million Dolllars---

I will get their my friend, that is CERTAIN and WILL HAPPEN but not overnight, hard work and using my system of positive expectations.

You will laugh if you found out what I started with 6 months ago in my accounts and what it has ammassed to as of current.

 

[RetroVK]

 

[Joe Public]

You will laugh if you found out what I started with 6 months ago in my accounts and what it has ammassed to as of current.

Oh, but I'm already laughing. I truly am.

Oddly enough, I agree on the actual play. Tough to see the Lakers blowing it unless they're on the take.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Sorry JOE my bad, I miscalculated everything brother lol---- Geez for a math wizard I am making odd miscalculations of late, I think I am burned out and need to refresh and recharge as my BRAIN is smoking like a mad scientist, I never make math mistakes and made more in the last week than in years- Time to hit the weights and eat good food.

The series price is 5% of total roll----

For some reason i was using $900 and that is 0.5% of the roll lol--

Sorry for the confusion there, it is 5%-------

regular plays are 0.5% (1K) and higher 1% (2K)

I was already thinking my roll is up to 2 million, must be good fortune to be thinking that, I am already BELIEVING that lol It will happen , just give it time and I will be there----

 

[B.A.R.]

Sorry JOE my bad, I miscalculated everything brother lol----

The series price is 5% of total roll----

For some reason i was using $900 and that is 0.5% of the roll lol--

Sorry for the confusion there, it is 5%-------

regular plays are 0.5% (1K) and higher 1% (2K)

I was already thinking my roll is up to 2 million, must be good fortune to be thinking that, I am already BELIEVING that lol It will happen , just give it time and I will be there----

Reason-- I am a math wizard and was eating some SUSHI and I realized Okay let me think about this in pure numbers--
If lakers are going to LOSE, and they always have game 7 at HOME which I believe they CAN WIN vs any West team--

The play should be good, getting back to basketball. The value isn't there though imo. This team was +350ish before season to win er all. Now your laying 2.25:1 to get to the finals. Seems like your getting to the party a little late. But, that being said, this has a very good shot of cashing and then the price doesn't matter.

gl

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

You will laugh if you found out what I started with 6 months ago in my accounts and what it has ammassed to as of current.

Oh, but I'm already laughing. I truly am.

Oddly enough, I agree on the actual play. Tough to see the Lakers blowing it unless they're on the take.

Yeah that is what I think brother, hard to see them blowing it also, they know every west team GOOD and own them all, none of them have our Number and we have ARIZA and BYNUM this year which is huge, cause last year they didnt and still won the WEST vs tougher competition-

Sorry for the miscalculations, I am pretty sure you knew what I was talking about, if I had 2 million roll I would be famous by now.

Thanks BAR I agree, it has a great shot of CASHING now and that is all that matters, If I see it a winner, its a winner.
however If i could rewind the clock I would, But I CANT so the fact that they were +350 has no effect in my thought process unless someone is generous enough to offer it to me and I will take it for that price.

Where I think I have calculated this correctly is in the odds the Lakers lose a series--

Odds lakers lose 4-0 is virtually NIL--
Odds Lakers lose 4-1 is very very very LOW
Odds Lakers lose 4-2 is LOW because that means someone has to win all 3 home games and win a game in LAKER STADIUM---
Odds Lakers lose 4-3- LOW- Means Lakers either Lost 3 games on ROAD and game 7 at Laker Stadium-- OR lakers lost 2 games at HOME including 7 and WON one game on Road--

Either way the scenarios Lakers losing 4-3 and 4-2 are the only scenarios-
This means basically that Lakers win no ROAD GAMES AT ALL--
ALso they lose to some Team that is able to WIN all HOME games and ALSO WIN AT LAKER STADIUM--

Based on the competition this YEAR the odds of this happening is much HIGHER than what I PAID---

I would estimate that this series price should be double if not closer to -450 ish to -500--



Try not to laugh too hard at the pathetic mathematical errors I made in this thread-

 

[Joe Public]

The play should be good, getting back to basketball. The value isn't there though imo. This team was +350ish before season to win er all.

Right, that's the dilemma, is the value there? Problem is, the teams that started the season in the West aren't the ones who finished there. Everybody but L.A. is a shell of themselves at the start of the season--save Denver. And Denver doesn't have an answer for L.A. At least none that we know of.

That +350 is figuring in both a healthy Spurs team and the Eastern Conference--let alone anything out of say Phoenix or Dallas. Now you're pretty much removing all of the West based on their play.

You have to look at what the Lakers would be in each of their series--or guess it, I should probably say, and see if just betting those straight would somehow give you a better profit over the run of the three series.

Problem is, who will they be anything less than -300 against? I'm not sure it even gets that low.

Injury is the thing you fear most, I'd think. Bynum going back down, or something happening to Kobe. But you always kind of take that risk on futures.

 

[Joe Public]

Sorry for the miscalculations, I am pretty sure you knew what I was talking about, if I had 2 million roll I would be famous by now.

No worries, and you're already famous, Sammy. The legend of your beard grows mightier by the day.

=)