'16-'17 Trade/Keeper/Draft/All Fantasy Advice & Suggestions

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Its never too early to start talking keepers.

League Basics:
PPR league - 1 PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE/RB, 1 K, 6 IDP, 6 BN.

Keep up to 3.

$230 auction budget, any unused cash is added to your $100 for FA.


Potential Keepers:
Odell Beckham JR - $46
AJ Green - $46
Demaryius Thomas - $46
Todd Gurley - $40
Mark Ingram - $28
Michael Floyd - $3
Carson Palmer - $3


Obvious choices off the bat would be ODB, AJ Green, and Todd Gurley but with this being a PPR I think Ingram is probably a better bargain with the Saints offense vs. Rams. Of course Gurley's ceiling is significantly higher, second year in the season, Ingram always misses games, blah blah blah.

Carson is a steal at $3 but QB should be deep this year.
 
Last edited:
TheHbomb said:
Sometimes the obvious choice is the correct choice. In your case, I'm inclined to agree.
Click to expand...

With which one? He said his obvious choice was 4 guys...lol.

Are you going with Ingram?

I'm not sure it's that obvious, I'd go with ODB or Gurley myself...probably leaning towards Gurley.
 
We get to keep 3 players - its hidden a bit.

I am basically debating between Gurley or Ingram with this being a PPR league. AJ Green and ODB would be kept regardless.

Gurley = higher ceiling
Ingram = better floor, underrated pass catching back
 
reNew Orleans said:
We get to keep 3 players - its hidden a bit.

I am basically debating between Gurley or Ingram with this being a PPR league. AJ Green and ODB would be kept regardless.

Gurley = higher ceiling
Ingram = better floor, underrated pass catching back
Click to expand...

Not sure if Ingram has the better floor, of if your NO bias is showing through a bit. If you're not looking at the money differential as a determining factor (not sure how much that $12 is really worth as I'm not in auction leagues), then it seems like a no brainer to go with Gurley. He's a top 3 RB in the league.

With that top 3 you have a helluva trio, tough to see anyone having s better 3 WR/RB combo than that in your league...but then you have only $98 to fill out the rest of your roster. Is it too risky to keep Palmer over Green? Again I'm not in an auction league so you know how they go 100% better than I do, but it seems pretty interesting to figure out and find the balance on what you want to spend the money on and value more...
 
call me crazy i know QB is deep but id keep Palmer for $3. Palmer-Gurley-OBJ gets you 3 steals who are elite at their position
 
12 team league.

FYI
QB scoring - 50 passing = 1 pt, .25 pt per completion, rushing QBs have a decided advantage since 10 rushing yards = 1pt.
 
Lareux said:
Not sure if Ingram has the better floor, of if your NO bias is showing through a bit. If you're not looking at the money differential as a determining factor (not sure how much that $12 is really worth as I'm not in auction leagues), then it seems like a no brainer to go with Gurley. He's a top 3 RB in the league.

With that top 3 you have a helluva trio, tough to see anyone having s better 3 WR/RB combo than that in your league...but then you have only $98 to fill out the rest of your roster. Is it too risky to keep Palmer over Green? Again I'm not in an auction league so you know how they go 100% better than I do, but it seems pretty interesting to figure out and find the balance on what you want to spend the money on and value more...
Click to expand...

I guess to clarify the comment on Gurley's floor, it is more about game flow & belief in Rams passing game being able to succeed. Its probably because Im letting a couple games from last year creep into my mind. I have to imagine Gurley does get more involved in the passing game though.

Auction leagues are trickier to prepare for but every dollar counts especially because we have 6 IDPs. I tend to a lot around $12 on all IDPs (just so I can bid up to $3-5 if I really want someone) but JJ Watt went for $16, Lavonte David $13, Luke Kuechly $11 last year.
 
reNew Orleans said:
I guess to clarify the comment on Gurley's floor, it is more about game flow & belief in Rams passing game being able to succeed. Its probably because Im letting a couple games from last year creep into my mind. I have to imagine Gurley does get more involved in the passing game though.

Auction leagues are trickier to prepare for but every dollar counts especially because we have 6 IDPs. I tend to a lot around $12 on all IDPs (just so I can bid up to $3-5 if I really want someone) but JJ Watt went for $16, Lavonte David $13, Luke Kuechly $11 last year.
Click to expand...

But you have to now factor in a rookie QB, which if he starts, will increase the load on Gurley. It's okay to disagree, that's why it's fun to talk about...but imo Gurley's floor and ceiling are both much higher than Ingram's. And yeah, you're inclination that he'll get more involved in the passing game is also probably spot on...you'd have to imagine they told him to work on that specifically, so they can get the ball in his hands as much as they'd like.
 
Lareux said:
But you have to now factor in a rookie QB, which if he starts, will increase the load on Gurley. It's okay to disagree, that's why it's fun to talk about...but imo Gurley's floor and ceiling are both much higher than Ingram's. And yeah, you're inclination that he'll get more involved in the passing game is also probably spot on...you'd have to imagine they told him to work on that specifically, so they can get the ball in his hands as much as they'd like.
Click to expand...

STL got Gurley to be a high volume beast of a running back. Comparing him to Ingram isnt even fair to Ingram. I agree that this is all fun to talk about, but you have a stud in Gurley here...the only thing that stops him from being a top 3 RB is injury. Keep him!
 
D-Woww said:
STL got Gurley to be a high volume beast of a running back. Comparing him to Ingram isnt even fair to Ingram. I agree that this is all fun to talk about, but you have a stud in Gurley here...the only thing that stops him from being a top 3 RB is injury. Keep him!
Click to expand...

Exactly.

I wasnt trying to be a jerk either when I said reNew's Saints' bias was showing through. I'm not sure anyone outside of NO would even give that choice a second thought. It's a top 3 RB, who may have a rookie QB under center...that's all you need to know really.
 
keep whom?

1 keeper
14 team extra WT/TE flex. 0.5 point PPR. I have pick 11 in a snake. lose pick in round listed by name

Ant Brown rd 1
Devonta Freeman rd 5
David Johnson rd 6
Jordy Nelson rd 15

Lean David but want to hear CTG. I'm not sure I really like the hype. Good offense, gonna make plays but if you watch his film, he's not that good of a back. He was not a very instinctive runner last year but he does have that top end speed.
 
There's some beat writer for the cards that still thinks Chris Johnson is going to win the job lol. I suppose I'd go David Johnson just bc of situation and ability to catch.

Antonio brown as the 11th pick overall also seems crazy to pass up.

My keeper is auction based so not too familiar with keeper based on rounds.
 
AB for the 11th overall, no doubt about it for me...
He's a top 3 pick in almost every PPR I've seen.

Secondly I would do Jordy in the 15th, pending health inspection.
 
I hate to use my first round bc I can draft aj green or similar in the first and have him and DJ instead of brown and a 6th rounder. But I get it. Also waiting on Jordy info. If he's healthy that might be the best one
 
Also a 6th rounder in this league is like a 8-9th round in a non keeper 10 team. so losing a first round pick instead of a 6th or 15th is huge.
 
You're getting possibly the best player in the entire draft tho.

I get you lose a first rounder but look at it as if he was still on the board at 11, wouldn't you click draft immediately? I'm taking him any time I can, in any position, in first round.
 
reNew Orleans said:
My keeper is auction based so not too familiar with keeper based on rounds.
Click to expand...

basically if you keep a player and lose 1st round you don't have a 1st round pick. DJ would be the 1st or 2nd RB taken in this draft with the keepers gone. AB no doubt goes 1 overall then DJ would be 2-4th. Keeping DJ and having all of my 1st 5 picks guarantees me a couple other solid players, but yeah no one can match up against AB week to week. Gotta be well rounded to win though.

my 3rd place team last year had...
Devonta
David J
AB
Gronk
Arod
yuck!
 
STEED said:
You're getting possibly the best player in the entire draft tho.

I get you lose a first rounder but look at it as if he was still on the board at 11, wouldn't you click draft immediately? I'm taking him any time I can, in any position, in first round.
Click to expand...

I appreciate your input STEED. this is why I posted the question. you definitely have me thinking about it. Its possible I could trade back to 13 without giving anything up and have a slightly better 2nd round pick if I want to keep AB
 
another thing to keep in mind is that there are only 2 WRs kept based on initial input (keepers not locked in yet). 7-8 RBs will be kept. So their are still lots of decent WR1s left but no chance at a RB 1 at my 1st pick
 
kj, its probably not as easy as it used to be to get a script started. my wife has one and many others I know do. friend of mine is prescribed 120 30s per month. WTF is that!?
 
STEED said:
You're getting possibly the best player in the entire draft tho.

I get you lose a first rounder but look at it as if he was still on the board at 11, wouldn't you click draft immediately? I'm taking him any time I can, in any position, in first round.
Click to expand...

I agree with this as well, but see the reasoning for going with Johnson...just not sure Johnson is going to live up to the hype and you have a sure thing in AB.

Not going to start another thread (not yet at least I guess), but here are my options: (you don't lose a pick or anything, just a straight keeper)

Luck (probably not going to keep a QB this year)
Le'Veon
L Miller
Hopkins
Cooper

I guess since we don't lose a pick I'm not really considering Cooper. I am however considering Miller only because Bell is going to be suspended for 4 games, and I would 100% keep Bell if he wasn't suspended. Only reason I'm considering Hopkins is because he's a top 3ish WR and I'm not sure I want to keep Miller. Anyone think I should keep Bell even though he'll be suspended? We also don't find out draft order until all keepers are chosen (seems the best way to do it so no advantage to anyone).

Thoughts?
 
Tough to answer this one without knowing who will be there for you at 1.11.

It also depends on how you tier the WRs. For me, Brown is 1.1 in all drafts and in his own tier at WR. So for me, the answer is Brown. But if you have Brown in a big first tier of WRs, then you might want to consider Johnson, especially in a .5 ppr. If you are confident that you can land AJ Green in rd 1 and you have him tiered with Brown, then I'd keep Johnson.

There's probably only 2 (maybe 3) RB's I'd consider taking before round 4. Johnson is definitely one of them.

Good luck this yr.
 
At the moment hard to answer with LeVeon appealing and Hopkins holding out. I don't know how mock drafts are going right now but is Miller, Bell, or Hopinks going highest right now?

I'd probably want Hopkins is he gets his money and Bell doesn't win his appeal.
 
Assuming he looks like he can go week 1 this is a no brainer and it's not even close.

Jordy w/ your 15th round pick, are you serious ? Dude is a top 10 receiver and probably going no later than mid 2nd round on average....will outplay his draft position more than any of those other possible holds.
 
Gorg, thanks for the input and good luck to you.

I moved up to pick 8 and I'm targeting Green. I'm almost certain he will be there or go right in front of me. Next best WR at that point is Jordy/Dez/Arob/Evans/Jeffrey

I consider that the next tier that AJ is not in. I put him at the bottom of Julio Obj tier.

So yep it's a dropoff any way I look at it. But there's a decent chance AJ is at 8. I was hoping to keep Johnson and take Green and Evans first 2 picks. Could easily not happen and miss those guys though
 
ArizonaKid said:
Assuming he looks like he can go week 1 this is a no brainer and it's not even close.

Jordy w/ your 15th round pick, are you serious ? Dude is a top 10 receiver and probably going no later than mid 2nd round on average....will outplay his draft position more than any of those other possible holds.
Click to expand...
:handshake:

Just worried about his health. Should know more before draft day
 
I've never done an auction, so I don't know too much about those. But I think I'd keep OBJ, AJ, and Palmer. Then I would target another stud WR in the auction. But it's tough to know who will be there since this is a keeper league.

In a 1pt ppr league, I would target 3 stud WR's in all draft formats. Then I would select a bunch of mid-level RBs who catch a lot of passes. Pay them less $.

As for Palmer, he's so cheap that it makes sense to keep him. You can use him in a committee situation with another QB like Eli Manning.
 
I don't see Green as a guarantee anymore at that price tag.

I think Gurley and ODB sure...but with RB being so shallow, I don't mind you using your 3rd keeper on Ingram at all
 
IvyinBarondise said:
I don't see Green as a guarantee anymore at that price tag.

I think Gurley and ODB sure...but with RB being so shallow, I don't mind you using your 3rd keeper on Ingram at all
Click to expand...

I think it depends on how you tier AJ. Some folks have him in Tier 1 with the Studs, some folks have him in Tier 2 with guys like Dez and Robinson. Personally, I like him this year since Cinncy doesn't really have a legit #2 WR. And who knows how healthy Eifert will be all year? Even if Eifert is healthy, Green should get plenty of work. He can be a 100 catch guy this year IMO.
 
OK so I've nailed down who I will have at 8...

If I keep jordy it will be one of these guys and only one will be available Bell, Freeman, Elliot or AJ Green

if I keep David Johnson all of those players will be gone and my next best is Dez, Jordy, or Ingram

It looks like throwing DJ back gives me a shot at a much better player. but maybe Dez or Jordy are close enough to be in the same tier?
 
If I keep brown I don't have a first round pick. So my first pick will 14 picks after the pick I am listing the available guys there. Best I can hope for there at WR is Evans. Rb will be very weak. ADP says forte or CJ Anderson. I won't pick either of them.
 
It's so tough for me to keep brown when I can keep Jordy AND get one of the guys above. Losing a first round pick in this league is a huge disadvantage because the rest of the field are keeping guys like Rawls, Arob etc at later picks.
 
So what I'm saying is I can get brown and evans or Jordy and evans AND bell/Elliot etc. at round 15 of a 14 team draft there is NOBODY left so that pick is basically useless anyway

If I keep Jordy I lose round 15
 
cool, thanks. I'm just scattered about giving up brown and DJ, but jordy provides the value. really my question now is how much worse is dez than AJ or bell/freeman/Elliot.
 
I'm starting to work on tiers today, but I think you gotta keep Brown considering the uncertainty of who will be there in rd 1.
 
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