1/6 hockey discussion

slim5150

slim5150

Freelance Gynecologist
Disnt want to clog up C-man's thread with this.

I Generally make my own lines with certain adjustments for different things, recent form, recent opposition, startimg goalie and their tendencies, amongst other things.

Below is a look at the unadjusted numbers for tomorrow. I do input a 20 cent line on these to try and mimic what i might see from the books. Raw numbers close to a pickem dont always have the 20 cent spread in there.
Im not an expert at this, but its a good exercise to try and find some value or spot a grossley mispriced line.

If these were the offerings, what would you be on?

Canucks +139 @ Sabres -159
Avs -110 @ Tampa -110
Ducks +152 @ Philly -172
Stars 124 @ canes -144
Devils 101 @ islanders -121
Florida -127 @ tor 117
Vegas -115 @ -105
Nashville 141 @ oilers -161
Columbus -150 @ sharks 130
Bruins -113 @ kracken -103
 
See if Detroit can come back with some vengence after a piss poor matinee Saturday.

This Ottawa rivalry has gotten quite chippy the past few years.
 
Detroit is an interesting animal. Pens played a couple nearly flawless games against them. The fame on saturday, pitt played a very unexpectedly good 3rd period (one of their recent weaknesses), allowing limited shots.

They go against merlinian tonight it appears. While he has won 2 of the last 3 since ullmark went down ( coming in as relief midway through toronto game on 27th in which he game up late goals in the loss).

While his save percentage is decent in the last 2, he has given up some goals over the course of the year. Id lean towards detroit tonight, by virtue of price. But not really interested in getting involved with the wings until i see a bit more life
 
Since the start of the 2019-20 season, the Senators are 15-2-2 against the Red Wings. Det managed just 12 SOG last game…wow

It’s now or never for the Rangers. If they can’t carry some momentum from that winter classic victory and get on track on home ice then it’s not gonna happen this season.
 
Already played 3 over in cmans thread posted yesterday and adding a couple more. I'm stretching out a bit on a couple of these, mostly dictated by what the lines are and i feel as im being compensated enough for the risk.

Tor +110
Sj +106
Tb +105

CUrrent limes for these 3 are 100, 110, and -105 respectively. I feel good about jumping in early.

The adds today are
Nash +131
Dal +122. I wish i were getting more here, but for two 25 win teams i doubted that would be the case. Once can quickly see that the stars are winless in their last 5 losimg twice to the bedardless blackhawks. Looking deeper, they had 2 ot losses and 1 shootout loss in that span. Ottinger is slated for net tonight and he has averaged 3 goals against his last 5 with a paltry 89% save rate. This is about 4 points below his yearly average. They have won the faceoff battle in 3 of those last 5 games while their season long pp is a stellar 29% and a pk of 82%. It seems loke they are due for a bit of positive regression yo the mean. Ill take a shot here with this price after they have won 6 of their last 10 on the road. Carolina has played a very challenging schedule their last 5 and are 2 and 3 in that span. They are 5-5 in their last 10 at home.
Ana +128
Bos -116

Isles were a close add with markstrom going for the devils. But 1st game bavk for sorokin and the isles do have a few key injuries. Ill see how sorokin looks and how the isles reengineer their lines before i dive back in the them. Devils are healthier, but that hasnt translated to increased scoring yet.
 
2 lined up for tomorrow already.

Hawks -101
SJ/lak ov 5.5 -130

Depending on outcome of dal game today...i will look to them and maybe an over tomorrow. Although with both going over so much lately, it might be a heavily juiced 6.5. Id take tbe over 5.5 -130 now, but i want to see how the stars play in carolina tonight first. Desmith should be in net tomorrow so that could help things.
 
I’ll be on Dallas for sure. This team is confident playing on the road. Lean SJ, Ana, Bos as well. Avs a bit beat up so like your play there.
 
Thanks man! I like the way toronto has been playing. Nashville worries me a bit, but the line waa yowards the upper range of my numbers. Ingram will be the wildcard there. Im hopeful he has a game like he dis last time out.
 
Added 4 losers, sweet. Adding 2 to what i already have out there for today.

Dallas/ wash ov 6 -131
Sj +212. Should have taken it yesterday. This price is just a bit out of bounds. Witj how the sharks can score, anything is possible. Kings just played 2 physical matches against the wild. Sj is comimh off a b2b. If the sharks can get their shots and keep their legs fresh, i like the odds on this.
 
Have to play SJ. How about Hawks too? Stl is playing well but Chi looking for revenge on this crew. F Dallas. Horrible effort last night. Have to stay away from them now.
 
Yeah, boyh dallas and anaheim were letdowns. But, what i hoped would happen in dallas didnt, and anaheim played spirited, but phillybwas just too much. My initial 3 plays all hit, and my 4 adda all lost. What a day.

Yeah, i took hawks and sj/lak ov 5.5 yesterday. Added sj side today. Hawks are probably my favorite play. Added the over 6 in dallas. Utah worth a hard look two i think.

I really like the way chicago is playing. I get knight vs binnington. I had chicago closer to a 120 fav, so i feel like a got a bit of a discount cause they are WB (without bedard).
 
I cannot understand the odds on the Sharks here. It's a play regardless of how good LA is. Which if you look at the standings, both have 45 points. Over +200 in a rivalry game? I'll take it. Puck line @ -115 ain't bad either...Sharks to score at least 3 @ EV

Dallas -102 breaks out of losing streak.

Lean Blackhawks +104
 
7 of utah's last 20 games have been at home. In those they were 2 and 5. This is the first of a 7 game homestand.

Merlinian looks to get the call after having the nigbt off for the sens drubbing at the hands of the red wings.

I think this is a good spot to back the short fav at home. They palyed a great game at the rangers last time out for an ot victory(i was on rangers) might have been a different story had igor not got hurt.

Utah -121
Already played
Sj +212
Chicago -101
Sj ov 5.5 -130
Dal ov 6 -130
 
That dallas line is curious. I fely bettwr about their chances yesterday than today. Maybe im pissed at them for such a lack of effort. Im just going to stay away. Did take yhe over 6 there. So that means its a 2 to 1 game probably.

Yeah...sj line makes no sense at all. I shoulda played it yesterday. Mad at myself for not locming in a +235 or so
 
For 1/8, my initial interests are with

Habs
Buff
Pit
Tor/phi ov 5.5
Ana/car ov 6
Jets
Ottawa, dumb price. 1st of a 7 game homestand for avs who have lost 2 straight.
Columbus
Minn/sea un 5.5

The sides are mainly based on price at this point.
 
Really good day yesterday. Have 5 plays today, lets hope i am not getting out over my skis. But if it checks all the boxes for me, why not.

Calgary +128 tough scheduling spot for the bruins with one day of rest after losing 7-4 @ seattle on tuesday. Calgary off the loss where they were competitive against the habs save a bad 4 minute stretch in the 2nd period. Ok if swayman goes, but he has played the last 4, so korpisalo may get the nod which would slightly help my case. Wolf off 7 straight starts, so i would think cooley gets the nod here which i am fine with.

Montreal +108. Probably wouldng get this price if the habs didnt play last night. Marchand looks like he might be out after getting pulled from toronto game. That was all i needed. My numbers, not discoumted for marchs likely absence, had this closer to a pick.

Buff -120. Not in love with this spot. Rangers have a number of injuries, but i was on them last time out versus the kracken where they came up short in ot. Quick is a servicable backup...and ellis is projected to get the start for buff. That is a concern since he hasnt played since 12/9. Going against my numbers here with a team that is exhibiting better current form.

Pit -112. My numbers say this is a bit of a discount on pitt, perhaps due to a better than expected effort since jersey had a poor showing last time out vs the isles where they were humiliated 9-0 @ in nassau. Nowhere to go but up for them. Allen looks to get the nod after markstroms spaghetti strainer performance. Pitt has really upped the intensity lately which, as a fan, i am happy to see. If malkin is ruled in for this game, which is possible, this line would increase significantly.

1.5 units ana/car ov 6.5 -125
Im not goimg to prattle on about why i am on this side. Maybe both teams are scoring soo much lately that they are tired tonight. Perhaps there were other reasons where the under should be considered. I didnt look. Anaheim could be worth a sniff, but i elected to just play the total.

Columbus +148. Took a price with this one as it is out of range for the top end of where this should be priced. Both have had some recent challenges. Eichel still hasnt really got things going simce his return and they havent had the best recent home record. They do look to be finally healthy. Cbus with avs on deck, so one would think there will be max effort here to try and get at least a point. Both recently been getting goals lately. This is the weakest play of the bunch.
 
Initial leans were Mon, Nash and Edm. I like that over in Carolina. The way the ducks are playing defense. Carolina might get there on their own! Not sure what to do with the Pens. New Jersey was embarrassed last game so I expect a good effort from them. But this is Italian night at PPG and I will be in attendance, so looking to play something here. Considering the first period over 1.5.
 
Yeah, i could see that with the pens. Always a good look in the 1p..

The downside of the pens play that i made is the fact that jersey should try harder than last time out. But i imagine if the devils woulda win their last game, or at least not lost by 3 field goals, pens woulda been a -135 fav or so. Add in malkin MIGHT be back...its enough for me to take a lower risk shot where i just want the pens to mai tain their current level.
 
Isles +105
Edm -110
Min/sea u6 -115

Im suckered into the isles line at thia price. More i looked at edmonton/winnipeg i kept finding more reasons to back the oilers. With minn/sea, i get 2 goalies playing really well with a 6 on the board. Ok, ill nibble.

Best of luck today gents!
 
Took an early look at tomorrow’s slate. Kings look good coming in rested with Jets off another heartbreaking loss. Can Hawks beat Caps twice in a week? I like the way they are playing and Caps stumbling around right now. Utah priced a bit crazy.
 
Chicago and kings are where i am looking today. Utah price seems a little steep, so i wanna see whats happening there.

Wash has been down a couple offensive guys the last couple games. And i wasnt overly impressed with how they played vs dallas although they were victorious. 1st of two road gamea for the caps with them playing nashville on sunday. I dont think they win both and nashville will assuredly be a bigger dog than this.

Chicago has been playing with some grit lately.

I juat talked myself into making the play.

Chicago +128
 
Still thinking what if anything i do for the other two games on the card. But the lines popped for tomorrow and i had to take this price.

San jose +155.
 
Did this in the other teo games today

Parlay +138
Lak ov 2.5 goals
Utah ml

Comerie looks to get the start for winnipeg. Kings missing kopitar could hurt a touch. But i like how offensively they have been getting more chances. Comerie has looked poor in his last 5 starts.

I liked utah in this one, but wasnt about to lay that big of a number. The blues are attractive at thier current price, but decided this was a nice pairing to limit how much i put out there on pucks tonight.
 
Ofer yesterday. Chicago swapped out knight at the last minute and apparently there is a sickness rolling through the clubhouse. Those are the breaks.

Played san jose already yesterday. Adding these others. Considering a couple more, but i see alot of landmines out there today.

San jose +155 (played yesterday)
Bos -125
Buf/ anaheim ov 6.5 -125
Florida -102
Philly +135
Pitt -153
3 leg parlay +125
Col ml
Col gm over 5.5 goals
Col race to 3
 
GL on the card today Brother! Good call getting the Sharks last night! Line down a good 10/11 points this morning.
Sharks have Vegas tomorrow at 5 on the West Side. Going to that game, pretty excited, though always tough against them!
Haven't looked at the rest of the card yet.
 
Got tied up playing poker last night. Turned out to be a good night to sit out. Square AF, but hard to not like Mon, Pit and Buff.
 
@Vapster that should be a great game! Eichel is back in the fold and the vegas defensive squad is getting healthier.

Sharks are young but super competitive. Dallas has the more talented team on paper, but they are not playing up to that level. Maybe they do today, but what would the line had been if dallas had won 5 of their last 6.

@C-MAN buff is for sure playing like they much better team. I dont know that i want to back them and what i yhink is a bit of an inflated price. But i can very much understand the inflation. It was not quite enough to take a stab with the ducks, but they should have plenty more opportunities to score over what they experienced in raleigh. I felt over was the safer route.

I went opposite with the redwings vs the habs. Habs been playing great no doubt. Lotta history between these two. Big diviaion game which i took a price in.

I agree pitt is sqare af and the price is inflated. They continue to do the little thing they need to little things they need to to have an opportunity for success. 2nd game back for malkin which improves the pitt pp so much. Calgary is one of the most penalized teams in the league. If the flames gey behind, they could get chippy. If so, the pens have the weapons to make them pay. Hoping silvos doesnt get the start, but would generally feel a bit less ok if they do
 
Bought out of philly with errsson getting the nod. The bet was predicated on vladar. If tb wins...i net zero. If philly can still claim victory ill lose .3 units. Tb was -165.
 
Pretty good day yesterday. Glad i bought out of that philly play.

3 pack for today.

Winn -125
Pitt -113
Lv/sj ov 6.5 -117

Big day of football today. Didnt try and overthink things.
 
slim5150 said:
Pretty good day yesterday. Glad i bought out of that philly play.

3 pack for today.

Winn -125
Pitt -113
Lv/sj ov 6.5 -117

Big day of football today. Didnt try and overthink things.
Click to expand...
Good day yesterday but you did have to sweat out the Boston game with the Rangers almost able to get within a touchdown.
 
On all the same today slim. Let’s get them. Been looking hard at Washington too. Annunen likely in net for Preds and I love playing teams when they’re on their dad’s trip. Only concern is the caps may have been out partying on Broadway all night.
 
Washington has 10 road wins this year, 8 of them have been by 2+ goals. Might be talking myself into a puck line play.
 
Yeah...i keep thinking about washington also. I paused only because i liked too many plays today and nashville looked soo god awful. I would expect a better effort out of them today. But caps have been playimg really well. Annunen is the key. If i can get confirmation he is in...ill probably ride.

Lets hope both of us have some success for our recent successes!
 
Glad i stayed away from caps, or the over, as i woulda been wrong twice!. 2 and 2 day with a little juice loss. Pitt was close, they had so many chances. San jose was bested by a strong defensive performance from vegas highlighted by allowimg zero pp goals on 5 chances. Enough offense to get it over the total. Vegas looks to be in quite good form.

9 game slate today with some good matchups. Looks to be a few temptimg dogs out there.

Sabers, kracken, wild, hawks, and avs ov all have my radar up. Got some work to do.
 
Went ahead and just plowed through the selections. Lets see how this ends up. May try and come back with some additional thoughts.

Buff -112
Det +128
Habs/minn ml parlay +142
Chi +145
Dal -119
Tor/col ov 6 -130
 
Just a hunch but think Tor has a chance to give Col its first regulation home loss tonight. Tor is hot and has pretty good history h2h and Avs injuries could catch up to them.
 
Yeah...that thought process is kinda the impetus for my over. Ive been high on toronto sjnce they got healthy and cleaned out upper management. The market tends to agree cause it ia down about 35 cents or more.

I considered a +1.5 play
 
Another sistet kisser going 3-3 but picking up .16 units. Shoulda listened to my gut and added the leafs +1.5 PL, but alas, they did enough to get the over so im happy with that.

Alot to like on this card. Had a tough time paring it down to 6. 3 totals on the card today, so hopefully i have some more success with those than in recent history.

Also a bit favorite heavy for me. But im trying to get the baseball mindset, somewhat, out of my mind with the dogs where i exclusively played those pups (well almost exclusively). Its a different animal on the ice so i am trying to evaluate the process.

I dont keep a formalized record. I feel that i have been doing well. I use one book almost 95% for hockey plays and i have managed to double the account during the season. Being a bit more selective helps, but i have those days where i feel like gambling and try and position my money where i estimate i can get the greatest return.

Ive started using profitX for alot of these plays. Ive bested my regular book (betOnline) on most plays by about 8 cents or so. When locking in some early, as i sometimes will, i have found even more savings.

For those that remember, it is a reincarnation of matchbook. While some markets have limited liquidity, for sides and totals i can get down what i need to. And i can usually snag an alt game total that is reasonably priced (ov 6 vs ov 6.5, for example).

Todays plays.
Tb -127
Van/ott ov 6 -127
Cal/cbus u 6.5 -115
Bos -121
Isles +121
Dal/ana ov 6.5 -123

Leans being considered
Mon ov 6.5
Calgary
Carolina
Nashville
Toronto (wish they woulda lost by 1 last night)
 
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I love this card too. Going to try and narrow down a bit and then will post some thoughts. Pissed I didn’t add Tor last night but oh well.
 
I too am always upset about the ones i felt were right, but didnt add. I do only remember the winners moreso than the losers, which is natural.

I like to think if i woulda added it, that woulda jinxed it and toronto woulda lost by 2 or more. Like my paltry wager had that much sway, lol
 
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