YTD: 5-2 Dec 1 NBA Plays

rookie333

Blame it on the boogie
would've been a delluva day yesterday if it wasn't for a hook with dam hamilton's shot. O well, tomorrow's is looking good. I'm on a couple square plays, but hopefully since I got it early, it won't matter

Cleveland -2 (-115) Atlanta- 2 units (115 to win 100)
Denver +1 (-105) Minnesota- 2 units (105 to win 100)
Indiana/Seattle OVER 198.5- 2 units (110 to win 100)

Cleveland
This probably will be a huge public play, and the more I look at it, I'm liking it less. I will probably hedge it once it gets bigger and just play the 1st H, 1st Q, and/or Lebron prop. Any thoughts? This is a huge revenge spot for Cleveland as Atlanta beat them in OT last time they played, and Cleveland is off a loss at home to NY. I'm not a fan of Atlanta this yr, but they've been taking my money, so maybe I should pay better attention and show more respect. It's just the thought- Atlanta being good?! I guess it's true this year, but I don't like it. Cleveland will definitely come out fast to try to gain momentum. Expecting a big game from Lebron as we all remember his exit from the last contest btw these two. These two typically play close, so if I keep it and Cleveland wins by 1 oh man I'm gonna explode. This is a nice situation for Atlanta as they won't be home for another week and a half and will only come home for 1 game to go back on the road the next. You'd imagine they are kissing family goodbye and everything and wanna show the home croud a nice win to leave on. Both teams in nice situations, so I'd rather not play the game.

Denver
Twolves lost 2 in a row, and may want to bring it tonight to snap that streak. However this is a similiar situation for Denver as Cleveland with revenge on their minds as ealier November Minnesota beat them at their own game at denver 112-109. This must be a nice revenge spot as they are also off a loss. Minnesota is 4-0 when they score 100+, and Denver has allowed everyone get 100 except LAC twice. Obviously conflicting numbers, but too much revenage here as Denver will run and run and hope Minnesota can't keep up. The over is looking good, but I don't typically like Minnesota Overs. Might bite as it is Denver. They're off a loss where they score 98, just the 3rd time this season less than 100 and surprise surpsie they're 0-3 w/o 100 pts. Gotta believe Denver sets the tempo here despite being on the road. Minnesota has allowed 100 once, so they'll probably try to slow it down, but the thing with Denver is when they're running up and down the floor, it's hard not to play with them trading baskets. Minnesota might get caught doing so, as I don't trust Casey coaching them true discipline.

Indi/Seattle
I'm leaning to Indi on the road getting points, but will probably stay away. Indiana, on the road tends to let you run, and at home lock it down. Seattle will run and will love to, and supposing they make most of their shots, will reach 100 easily. Now as a Warriors fan, I'm still hating Stephen Jackson for that 3 pter w 1 second left, but I gotta hand it to Indi they will score. Two teams looking to score, look like an over to me

I'll talk about the leans 2m, hella tired
 
oops meant

Cleveland -2 (-115) Atlanta- 2.3 units to win 2
Denver +1 (-105) Minnesota- 2.1 units to win 2
Indiana/Seattle OVER 198.5- 2.2 units to win 2
 
added in

Portland +4 (-105) Orlando- 2.1 units to win 2
NYK +7 (-105) Detroit- 2.1 units to win 2
NYK/Det OVER 199.5- 2.2 units to win 2
1st H Cleveland -1.5 (-110) Atlanta- 1.1 units to win 1
Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 218- 2.2 units to win 2
Prop Arenas OVER 27.5 pts (-115) - 1.15 units to win 1

Portland
Orlando line is inflated with 5 straight wins. This is a big let-dwon spot as Orlando probably won't bring it all while Portland has dropped 3 in a row desperate for that W. I love Portland ATS at home as the public fades them no matter what, inflating this line. Portland plays strong at home, with rising stars. This game might actually be pretty fun to watch with Randolph VS Howard, Jack VS Nelson. This will probably be a close tough game with grinding it out on both sides. This is mostly a let-down bet for me.. with leans to under, but won't bet it. 93-90 type of game

NYK
Detroit again in a let-down spot off a huge win off revenge. Now coming home, they probably won't bring it all and just coast. You gotta love the line movement, although I'm beating myself up for not taking it at 8.5, I'm content with 7. NY will probably come out fighting, but they're off a win, which is typically a bad spot for them, but I like them nonetheless. NY on the road is a fun bet always, and I'm thinking about this 1st H. Picks to the over as NY never plays D and Detroit will probably want to let loose and trade baskets for fun after yesterday's critical game. Detroit probably sees this as a scrimage while NY has been prepping for their semi-championship game. 106-103 type of game

Phoenix/Milwaukee
I like Phoenix first H but don't wanna lay that many in just a half. I probably don't need to put much explanation as both teams will look to run, gun, and shoot. Phoenix at home always like to give their fans a show, and Milwaukee will probably let them and try to keep up

Washington/Charlotte

No side pick. Maybe a Charlotte, but I do see Arenas having a nice day. I see a lot of free throws for him as Felton will guard him physically and Arenas will try to burn him and draw fouls. No side pick because Charlotte's bigs could be too much for Washington to handle, but I'm uncomfy betting against Wash at home as this is the only place the play well. Arenas hasn't given a real show to the fans in a while, so expect his legs to be in and him to be making the shots
 
other games:

Boston/Toronto- eh

Chicago/NO

Leans to this unpopular road favorite. New Orleans is just flat out in trouble without West/Peja, and there is no real scorer left. Chris Paul is a fantastic player.. on a good team. Without scorers, he cannot get much done. Chicago might be determined to improve this road record and they could see this spot as the opportunity as they won't be on the orad for a looong time with 8 games coming in a row at home- a spot I'll be betting them early in it, then fading later on

Sac/Dallas

Might play Dallas 1st Q, as they always try to start off aggressive and feed from that. This is somehwat of a rivalry game, but Dallas is WAY too hot to bet against them, especially with Sac on the road. Anyone else realize Dallas always goes on some crazy streak early every year? Looking to next season... :)
 
1st H Phoenix -5.5 Milwaukee- 2.2 units to win 2
1st H Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 110.5- 2.2 units to win 2
1st Q Dallas/Sac OVER 50 (-130)- 2.6 units to win 2
 
rookie, appreciate your thoughts. I have a lean on that Minny Under which I'm still working on.

As far as Dallas goes, I'd be fearing a letdown for them anytime soon now. Spurs now have more losses than they do, so the impetus they felt to go on a tear at 0-4 has largely dissipated. Their only recent Over came against a TOR side just happy to run up and down in a giveaway spot. I'd be wary of both those bets: could see Sac up something like 26-23 after 1.
 
1st H Phoenix -5.5 Milwaukee- 2.2 units to win 2
1st H Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 110.5- 2.2 units to win 2
1st Q Dallas/Sac OVER 50 (-130)- 2.6 units to win 2

and bought back Cleveland game and added one more unit on Cleveland 1st H
 
Thanks BetCrimes, but looking into it, both tems love to score it up in the 1st quarter, and I'll take my chances with these. I remember some interview with Avery Johnson on NBATV saying that in order for his team to win, they need to get out early
 
anyway, here's the card:

1st H Phoenix -5.5 Milwaukee- 2.2 units to win 2
1st H
Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 110.5- 2.2 units to win 2
1st Q
Dallas/Sac OVER 50 (-130)- 2.6 units to win 2
Denver +1 (-105) Minnesota- 2.1 units to win 2
Indiana/Seattle OVER 198.5- 2.2 units to win 2

Portland +4 (-105) Orlando- 2.1 units to win 2
NYK +7 (-105) Detroit- 2.1 units to win 2
NYK/Det OVER 199.5- 2.2 units to win 2
1st H Cleveland -1.5 (-110) Atlanta- 2.2 units to win 2
Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 218- 2.2 units to win 2
Prop Arenas OVER 27.5 pts (-115) - 1.15 units to win 1
 
I placed a wage in for Cleveland -1.5 for the first halve. I like them here and yeah I think they will come out to play and try to take an early advantage here and go into the 2nd halve with a lead. Cleveland had me upset last week and I look forward to a good first halve.
 
I like your card, I need to move on and leave Bodog behind, I really like some of these 1q lines something bodog is leaving me with out and thier college basketball lines suck as well meaning lack of first half oppotunities practically no over unders and such related b.s.
I look forward to cashing in on Pheonix alot this year. like the play, Milwuakee can be a good team once in a while though, sometimes you gotta try to call em out...the suns, they gotta lose sometimes. But good luck, liking it.
The arenas prop is a good play, the guy is due for a game. I took amare stoudemire prop ov. 32.5 pts + reb
 
thanks guys.

MX- I like the amare prop BOL

adding

1st H NYK +4 (-115) Detroit- 2.3 units to win 2
1st q nyk +2.5 (-115)- Detroit- 2.3 units to win 2

big card tonight, hopefully it hits
 
Arenas 33 pts. got em'. I like to see Arenas do good, he's a good player. Didn't take him tonight missed out on the deadline.
Go Stoudemire!
 
2nd H Phoenix -7 (-115) Bucks- 1.725 units to win 1.5 units

Bucks shooting 66%?! No team can continue that
 
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