Hey, I'm from covers (SF_Capper) and have been reading here since the start of the season. I'm deicding to post so I can hopefully get some nice feedback and possible counter trends/facts that I didn't see before. My unit size is 50 dollars, but my average bet size is probably like 75. Hopefully everything works out here. O yea posting at covers I'm 58% but up like 19 units cuz of bigger bets. Here it is tomorrow:
Lakers -4 Utah- 3 units (165 to iwn 150)
Detroit -2.5 (-115) Miami- 4 units (230 to win 200)
Both of these teams will bring it 2m IMO. Both in revenge spots. Lakers from last week losing to Utah and Detroit obviously from playoffs.
lets start with the Lakers... With one of the few low post scorers in the league (Bynum, Yao, Shaq, Kaman, Duncan, and probably only a couple more) Lakers have an edge. If have have watched him Bynum play, you'll notice his skills- he's long and plays reallly hard all game. He gets himself into foul trouble a little, but other than that this guy is a monster. He plays big and is big. Okur has the size to matchup, but not the strength. Although having Okur outside shooting will bring him out of the paint on defense, I think Jackson will have a gameplan ready. In advanced.. Play Lakers 3rd quarter at HT. They very often come out well and adjust and make their shots for some reason. Also, this is usually when Kobe starts playing for real and not trying to boost up his assists column. He is a hog, but the best one in the league and he tries not to let people know. Particularly on national TV, he'll probably pass too much early on, but come 2nd H, he'll bring his real self. Lamar Odom also for some reason starts making his shots by the 3rd. Utah must be tired after this grinf it out game with the Spurs. They also might be high on themselves, and now must go all the way to LA to play. I don't like it. I'm iffy on the total, but leaning to the over. Lakers like to push and find ways to score at home, and Utah typically do as well, although not of late. I believe after a loss, a well-coached team slows it down to olimit mistakes, but Utah is high on themselves and will likely have more fun and run after restricting themselves last night. They know they couldn't afford to make mistakes against the Spurs, so will most likely make them here. If it doesn't make sense ask a basketball player. They're more likely to say shoot an uncalled for 3pointer on the break instead of waiting for a better possible layup, or they're not as self-conscious to box out, etc. Maybe a Laker 1st Q bet will be warranted by this.
Now on Detroit. They have nothing but revenge in their minds, and after 4 days of rest you gotta believe they bring everything they've got here. Last yr, Wade spanked on them inside and out making superman shots etc. Unless that happens again, I like Detroit by DD. They've had 4 days of rest, and I think they've been doing nothing but watching tape and prepping for this game on national TV. I'm not sure if people realize this, but they're on a 6 game win streak... quietly. They've been on and I don't see rust being a problem here. Last yr, Big Ben wasn't able to help out on defense cuz Shaq demanded too much attention, but with both gone, I thin k Nazr Muhammed is fine to play the help out role, but Alonzo just doesn't have the firepower to demand that attention. If you look at the matchups: (Guards: J Will, and DWade VS Rip and Chauncey; edge goes to detroit) (Forwards: D Wright and Haslem VS Sheed and Prince; edge to Detroit) (Center: Zo VS Nazr; slight edge to Detroit)
Taking both faves here, and I know that isn't good by the TNT trend, but whatever, that trend is just coincidence. Really one game has no effect on another unless like there's playoff contention on the line and one team is anxious for the 1st game to lose or something, which is completely irrelevant here. Lets go, planning to ML these when they come out just for precaution
Thoughts/help would be great. Also, any thoughts on the totals/quarters/props would help too, thanks
Lakers -4 Utah- 3 units (165 to iwn 150)
Detroit -2.5 (-115) Miami- 4 units (230 to win 200)
Both of these teams will bring it 2m IMO. Both in revenge spots. Lakers from last week losing to Utah and Detroit obviously from playoffs.
lets start with the Lakers... With one of the few low post scorers in the league (Bynum, Yao, Shaq, Kaman, Duncan, and probably only a couple more) Lakers have an edge. If have have watched him Bynum play, you'll notice his skills- he's long and plays reallly hard all game. He gets himself into foul trouble a little, but other than that this guy is a monster. He plays big and is big. Okur has the size to matchup, but not the strength. Although having Okur outside shooting will bring him out of the paint on defense, I think Jackson will have a gameplan ready. In advanced.. Play Lakers 3rd quarter at HT. They very often come out well and adjust and make their shots for some reason. Also, this is usually when Kobe starts playing for real and not trying to boost up his assists column. He is a hog, but the best one in the league and he tries not to let people know. Particularly on national TV, he'll probably pass too much early on, but come 2nd H, he'll bring his real self. Lamar Odom also for some reason starts making his shots by the 3rd. Utah must be tired after this grinf it out game with the Spurs. They also might be high on themselves, and now must go all the way to LA to play. I don't like it. I'm iffy on the total, but leaning to the over. Lakers like to push and find ways to score at home, and Utah typically do as well, although not of late. I believe after a loss, a well-coached team slows it down to olimit mistakes, but Utah is high on themselves and will likely have more fun and run after restricting themselves last night. They know they couldn't afford to make mistakes against the Spurs, so will most likely make them here. If it doesn't make sense ask a basketball player. They're more likely to say shoot an uncalled for 3pointer on the break instead of waiting for a better possible layup, or they're not as self-conscious to box out, etc. Maybe a Laker 1st Q bet will be warranted by this.
Now on Detroit. They have nothing but revenge in their minds, and after 4 days of rest you gotta believe they bring everything they've got here. Last yr, Wade spanked on them inside and out making superman shots etc. Unless that happens again, I like Detroit by DD. They've had 4 days of rest, and I think they've been doing nothing but watching tape and prepping for this game on national TV. I'm not sure if people realize this, but they're on a 6 game win streak... quietly. They've been on and I don't see rust being a problem here. Last yr, Big Ben wasn't able to help out on defense cuz Shaq demanded too much attention, but with both gone, I thin k Nazr Muhammed is fine to play the help out role, but Alonzo just doesn't have the firepower to demand that attention. If you look at the matchups: (Guards: J Will, and DWade VS Rip and Chauncey; edge goes to detroit) (Forwards: D Wright and Haslem VS Sheed and Prince; edge to Detroit) (Center: Zo VS Nazr; slight edge to Detroit)
Taking both faves here, and I know that isn't good by the TNT trend, but whatever, that trend is just coincidence. Really one game has no effect on another unless like there's playoff contention on the line and one team is anxious for the 1st game to lose or something, which is completely irrelevant here. Lets go, planning to ML these when they come out just for precaution
Thoughts/help would be great. Also, any thoughts on the totals/quarters/props would help too, thanks
