YTD: 0-0 from covers, posting plays and writeups for Thursday NBA


Blame it on the boogie
Hey, I'm from covers (SF_Capper) and have been reading here since the start of the season. I'm deicding to post so I can hopefully get some nice feedback and possible counter trends/facts that I didn't see before. My unit size is 50 dollars, but my average bet size is probably like 75. Hopefully everything works out here. O yea posting at covers I'm 58% but up like 19 units cuz of bigger bets. Here it is tomorrow:

Lakers -4 Utah- 3 units (165 to iwn 150)

Detroit -2.5 (-115) Miami- 4 units (230 to win 200)

Both of these teams will bring it 2m IMO. Both in revenge spots. Lakers from last week losing to Utah and Detroit obviously from playoffs.

lets start with the Lakers... With one of the few low post scorers in the league (Bynum, Yao, Shaq, Kaman, Duncan, and probably only a couple more) Lakers have an edge. If have have watched him Bynum play, you'll notice his skills- he's long and plays reallly hard all game. He gets himself into foul trouble a little, but other than that this guy is a monster. He plays big and is big. Okur has the size to matchup, but not the strength. Although having Okur outside shooting will bring him out of the paint on defense, I think Jackson will have a gameplan ready. In advanced.. Play Lakers 3rd quarter at HT. They very often come out well and adjust and make their shots for some reason. Also, this is usually when Kobe starts playing for real and not trying to boost up his assists column. He is a hog, but the best one in the league and he tries not to let people know. Particularly on national TV, he'll probably pass too much early on, but come 2nd H, he'll bring his real self. Lamar Odom also for some reason starts making his shots by the 3rd. Utah must be tired after this grinf it out game with the Spurs. They also might be high on themselves, and now must go all the way to LA to play. I don't like it. I'm iffy on the total, but leaning to the over. Lakers like to push and find ways to score at home, and Utah typically do as well, although not of late. I believe after a loss, a well-coached team slows it down to olimit mistakes, but Utah is high on themselves and will likely have more fun and run after restricting themselves last night. They know they couldn't afford to make mistakes against the Spurs, so will most likely make them here. If it doesn't make sense ask a basketball player. They're more likely to say shoot an uncalled for 3pointer on the break instead of waiting for a better possible layup, or they're not as self-conscious to box out, etc. Maybe a Laker 1st Q bet will be warranted by this.

Now on Detroit. They have nothing but revenge in their minds, and after 4 days of rest you gotta believe they bring everything they've got here. Last yr, Wade spanked on them inside and out making superman shots etc. Unless that happens again, I like Detroit by DD. They've had 4 days of rest, and I think they've been doing nothing but watching tape and prepping for this game on national TV. I'm not sure if people realize this, but they're on a 6 game win streak... quietly. They've been on and I don't see rust being a problem here. Last yr, Big Ben wasn't able to help out on defense cuz Shaq demanded too much attention, but with both gone, I thin k Nazr Muhammed is fine to play the help out role, but Alonzo just doesn't have the firepower to demand that attention. If you look at the matchups: (Guards: J Will, and DWade VS Rip and Chauncey; edge goes to detroit) (Forwards: D Wright and Haslem VS Sheed and Prince; edge to Detroit) (Center: Zo VS Nazr; slight edge to Detroit)

Taking both faves here, and I know that isn't good by the TNT trend, but whatever, that trend is just coincidence. Really one game has no effect on another unless like there's playoff contention on the line and one team is anxious for the 1st game to lose or something, which is completely irrelevant here. Lets go, planning to ML these when they come out just for precaution

Thoughts/help would be great. Also, any thoughts on the totals/quarters/props would help too, thanks
awesome write-ups...on Lakers pretty big and may hit Stons as well..good to havre you over here man
I played Detroit minus 3. Detroit has won 7 in a row on Thursday and is playing at a high level right now and have beaten Miami at least times in a row on Thursday while Miami has not beaten an over 500 team yet this year so this line seems silly. Utah however has beaten Lakers, Suns, Detroit, Clippers and Houston so the balance of strength seems much less clear. Lakers 4-6 on Thursday losing last 3 while Utah 3-7. I guess it comes down to a belief that the Lakers are a very good team with a rest advantage playing a team that is still better than them. That 2 game losing streak---first they lost to a pitiful GS they had crushed earlier and then looking ahead to Spurs and then Lakers on Thursday they lost to a very good team. Now they do have a tendency to lose to teams that they have beaten earlier in the season and that may help the Lakers who really are a quality team but since I am fairly sure Detroit is a good bet why look for trouble challenging a team that has done so well and is so deep and talented. GL

Detroit/Miami UNDER 192.5- 2 units (110 to win 100)

Recent trends show last that the last 8 games between these teams have gone WAY under. Typically imo big rivalry games, teams like to slow it down to limit mistakes and beat the other team in a set half court with their thought out plays to attack the defense they've been studying. Also typically, in big rivalry games teams would spend a lot more time watching tape of the other team''s offense because studying another teams defense is difficult especiallly in a man-to-man defense. There isn't much to study except players' defensive tendencies, but as professionals, there are limited problems with an individuals defense. However, watching a team's offense is much more efficient as you can prepare to defend what is to come: learning the other teams' playbook in a way. This will result in more clock milking and difficult shot taking. Detroit has had so much time to prepare that one must believe they're ready. Pat Riley has been stressing defense with this Heat squad for a couple games now. Recent trends could be thrown off, as each respected leader is gone (Ben and Shaq), so this could be more of a guard play game. One could make a case that this means high scores, but I think it's the opposite. I still think there'll be clock milking, just now instead of a mini-hook by shaq, it'lll be a jump shot by wade= under.
Rookie333 - nice write ups and glad to have you here. I think you have a solid card tonight, however I'm favoring the over in the Heat game. BOL to you!
thanks, and I'm adding

Pistons ML (-165)- 2 units (165 to win 100)

Really like them here tonight. Might add Lakers ML too, but we'll see. Thanks for the feedback guys
I feel like a wuss. This one could get close at the end with free throws etc. Teams are lookin better than I had thought, gonna get a little middle


2nd H Detroit/Miami OVER 96- 2 units (110 to win 100)

get myself a 9.5 pt middle
3rd Q Lakers +1 (even) Utah- 2 units (100 to win 100)
3rd Q Lakers OVER 25.5 pts (-130) Utah- 2 units (130 to win 100)

Lakers always show up after a halftime, but Utah not so often. Not touching the 2nd H cuz there could be some bs plays and bench coming out, but I'm liking these. I've been waitin for a day, and would play more if it were closer
Lakers -4 Utah- 3 units (165 to iwn 150) WIN
3rd Q Lakers +1 (even) Utah- 2 units (100 to win 100) WIN
3rd Q Lakers OVER 25.5 pts (-130) Utah- 2 units (130 to win 100) WIN

Detroit -2.5 (-115) Miami- 4 units (230 to win 200) LOSE (MOOSE)
Pistons ML (-165)- 2 units (165 to win 100) WIN
Detroit/Miami UNDER 192.5- 2 units (110 to win 100) WIN
2nd H Detroit/Miami OVER 96- 2 units (110 to win 100) LOSE

New YTD: 5-2
+4.2 units