Your Two National Championship Teams . . . .

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SoonerBS

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BCS standings came out today and by the looks of things and the remaining schedules it will be Auburn playing the winner of the Mich/Ohio State winner.
 
BCS Standings

1 Ohio State
2 USC
3 Michigan
4 Auburn
5 West Virginia
6 Florida
7 Louisville
8 Notre Dame
9 Texas
10 California
11 Tennessee
12 Clemson
13 Arkansas
14 Oregon
15 Boise State
16 Rutgers
17 Nebraska
18 LSU
19 Georgia Tech
20 Boston College
21 Wisconsin
22 Oklahoma
23 Iowa
24 Missouri
25 Tulsa
 
I think florida will beat auburn in the ga dome
Also arkansas will have to lose 2 games to not be in that game.. so dont write them off
 
WVU will jump Auburn if they win out. They are extremely low in the computers but will get a boost if they beat Lousville, Pitt, and Rutgers.
 
If Auburn wins out there is no way they are not there. Also, Auburn, other than the SEC Championship game, has a cush schedule the rest of the way out this season.

Pitt is going to cause some chaos in the Big East somehow. I don't know which team they will beat, but they have both WVU and Louisville as home games at the end of the year.
 
yeah, but auburn lost at home to arkansas...WVU or Louisville would be undefeated, if they win out. If somehow every one of those teams loses once I can see Auburn in then.
 
WVU plays both Louisville and Pitt on the road and will lose at least one of those games if not both.
 
I know it's early, but part of the fun is speculating on how we think things will shake out when all is said and done and we hopefully have the two best teams in the country playing for the National Championship at the end of this thing.

In terms of my thoughts, the first spot is there for the taking for whoever wins the Michigan at Ohio State game in Columbus on 11/16 as I don't see how either of these two teams don't head into that game undefeated at this point.

As far as the second team in the equation, that one is the fun part, as it is completely up for grabs as far as I see it. I see Louisville, Auburn, Florida, USC, and Notre Dame all having legit shots at it based on where things currently stand, but of course anything can and probably will happen over the next few weeks.

Here is what I am thinking...

I see Louisville beating West Virginia in Papa John and then going on to beat both Rutgers and Pitt to stake their claim for the #2 spot with an undefeated season in hand, but to me that doesn't necessarily guarantee them the spot.

I say this because the winner of the SEC Championship game (I think it will be Auburn and Florida personally but who knows) AND the winner of the Notre Dame vs USC game to an even stronger extent will also have claims as well (I think USC will be undefeated going into this one and ND will still only have 1 loss, and I think ND wins, which would create a mess, but that is just my hunch at this point).

With all that said, I think that it will be Ohio State vs Notre Dame for some reason, with Louisville getting "screwed" out of the party, but I wouldn't be shocked if USC beat ND of course and then I would say USC vs Ohio State with Louisville again getting "screwed" out of the party as the odd man out.

What do you guys think.

CB

ps The reason I don't include Texas is because I think there are too many other teams for them to overtake, although I wouldn't be surprised if they get in if Louisville say loses at Pitt after beating WVU and ND falls to USC but USC loses to Cal the previous week for example.
 
what if UM loses by a fg to OSU, do they still go to the title game? even over an SEC team?..would be interesting.
 
WVU's defense stinks... they could lose 2/3 of those big games comming up. I like Texas to make a late run at being the #1 1 loss team. Which is bad because if Michigan beats OSU in a nailbiter... why not bring OSU back to play them in the championship if everyone has one loss?
 
Hunt, exactly... you can't throw either OSU or UM out in comparison to 1 loss teams. If anything, have to give both of them the nod IMO.
 
I would love to see UM/OSU on a neutral field if they both win out and have an epic battle in columbus.
 
I'm confused. If USC wins out you guys don't think they're in?
 
This is probably the worst BCS poll I have ever seen.

USC #2. Fuckin' please.

Auburn #4. Whatever.

WVU #5. Forget it.

Louisville #7. Not right now they're not.

Do these assholes even watch CFB because we know the computers don't.
 
Killa said:
I'm confused. If USC wins out you guys don't think they're in?

Killa, I don't think USC will win out. They still have Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame left on their schedule and I don't see this year's team winning out here.
 
The way it should play out is the UM/OSU winner versus an Arkansas team that wins out. But there's no way Arkansas wins out. So the SEC has a one loss champ (UF/AU/Ark) and so are out. That leaves UL/WVU winner and the USC/ND winner. USC/ND winner will be crowned the greatest team ever and will advance to the title game. OSU/UM loser is going to the Rose Bowl. Going out on a limb, the SEC goes undefeated in bowls.
 
If WV or Louisville or anyone else for that matter goes undefeated and 1 lose Auburn or FLA gets in I will shit.

WV especially has proven they deserve it if they go to LVille and get a W.
 
If USC gets knocked off and UM plays OSU tough... there is no reason they shouldn't turn around and play on a nuetral field for the championship. No other potential 1 loss team would be better. Same goes if OSU loses closely to Michigan.
 
Grill piece.....they havent lost a game in a year, they have the best rushing attack in the country and they proved themselves in last years BCS w/ a convincing victory over a top 5 SEC team.

Im a huge Michigan fan, but if OSU beats Mich. and WV is the only other undefeated, they deserve in.
 
WVU won't beat Louisville, so no need to worry.

Does anyone actually think USC is the 2nd best team in the country? I mean, does Pete Carroll even think that?

It's OSU and Michigan right now as the 2 best teams in the land. If a 1 loss team ends up making it, I'd like to see it be the SEC champ, given that they are a one loss team.
 
Pretty good article here from an obscure website..

Breaking Down the BCS: What does it all mean?

Date: 10/16/2006

The first BCS standings are out and, due to Florida’s loss, the title picture is clear – for now.


There are now seven unbeatens: Ohio State, Michigan, USC, West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers and Boise State. The first three control their own destinies, the other four need help.

The winner of Ohio State and Michigan will be #1 or #2 in the BCS at season’s end, assuming they win out. The same is true for USC if they refrain from losing. You can take this to the bank, no matter what else happens, an unbeaten West Virginia or Louisville (or even Rutgers or Boise State) will be behind these teams in the human polls and far behind them in the computer polls. [For a detailed explanation of how the BCS works, see the end of this article.]

But is this likely to happen? Yes and no.

First, it is a virtual certainty that the winner of OSU/Michigan will play for the National Championship. The only team left with a pulse for either team is Iowa, who has to travel to the Big House to play Michigan. While Iowa has given Michigan trouble in recent years, the Hawkeyes just lost to Indiana, got torched by Ohio State and Michigan is playing nasty. At best Iowa has a 20% chance and that is probably a reach. Everyone else these two teams play will be at least 20 point dogs, until they play each other. And, considering how much better the Buckeyes and Wolverines have looked than everyone else this year, November 18th may be the “real” national championship game.

For USC, the path is murkier. First, they have been unimpressive the last three weeks, winning single possession games against mediocre competition. Second, they have Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame, who are a combined 16-3, left on their schedule. While USC gets all three at home, their odds of winning out are most definitely under 50%.

So what happens if USC stumbles? Well, that is where it gets interesting.

With all due respect to Rutgers and Pitt, there is every expectation that the winner of West Virginia and Louisville will finish unbeaten. So all they need is for USC to lose, right? As Mr. Corso would say, “not so fast my friends.” Already, once beaten Auburn is #4 in the BCS, ahead of both West Virginia (#5) and Louisville (#7) and BCS #6 Florida has even better computer numbers than Auburn.

Both Auburn and Florida have made it through the hard part of their schedules and it is likely they could play a rematch in the SEC title game. If it is between a 12-1 winner of that game and an unbeaten WVU/Louisville there will be lots of debate – and don’t forget, a likely 12-1 Texas and the one loss loser of the Ohio State/Michigan game will likely be in the mix too (as well as possibly a once beaten Cal or USC or Notre Dame). Get those PR campaigns humming, because while it won’t have any effect on the computers, how the humans rank all these teams will go a long way in determining who plays the OSU/Michigan winner if USC loses.


BCS Primer

Confused about how the BCS works? Well, it is actually pretty simple these days. Like last year, the BCS is a combination of three elements, (1) the Harris Interactive poll, (2) the USA Today Coaches poll and (3) an average of six computer polls. Each team is assigned a point value (as a fraction of 1.0) for each of the three components and then these are averaged together. The higher your team’s number, i.e., the closer to 1.0, the higher they are ranked. Let’s break it down using BCS #1 Ohio State.

For each of the human polls a team’s point total is determined as a percentage of available points. For example, Ohio State was ranked #1 by every voter in the Coaches Poll, thus achieving 1575 of a possible 1575 points (they get 25 points for each first place vote and there are 63 voters). Thus, the Buckeyes get a 1.000 rating. For the Harris Interactive poll, they received 2848 of a possible 2850 points (112 first place votes and 2 second place votes). So, their rating is .999.

Things are not as rosy for the Buckeyes in the computer polls. There are six different rating systems, but the highest and lowest are eliminated. Ohio State is first in one poll and third, behind USC and Michigan in the other five. With highest and lowest eliminated, they are third in the four that count, resulting in a .920 rating.
So, we add together 1.000, .999 and .920, divide by 3 and get Ohio State’s .9731 rating.

What does it all mean? Well for one, a team’s relative weight in the human polls is highly important. There is a big difference between being first and second the way Ohio State and USC are (OSU getting all the number one votes, USC splitting the number twos with Michigan and West Virginia), and being ranked first and second with both teams sharing a lot of first place votes. Ohio State has a huge advantage over USC and Michigan in the human polls, garnering an average of .9995 in the two human polls, compared to USC’s .934 and Michigan’s .921. This allows Ohio State to comfortably be in first place in the BCS, even though they are only third in the computer polls.

But don’t discount the computer polls, they can play a huge roll. Let’s say, for example, that at the end of the year, Ohio State wins out and is a clear cut #1, West Virginia is undefeated and a 12-1 Florida team wins the SEC. In such a scenario, I suspect West Virginia would end up #2 in the human polls, because of the general bias towards undefeated teams. But it may be a close vote, perhaps similar to USC’s current .934 to .921 advantage over Michigan. If that is the case, Florida will only need to be one spot ahead, on average, in the computer polls to jump over WVU. And they may be a lot higher, as a one loss OSU/Michigan (and maybe others) might also be in between Florida and WVU.

For now, it is all speculation, but if USC loses, the fun will begin in earnest.

Tom’s Top 10 October 16, 2006

1) OhioState (7-0): Played flawlessly in thumping MichiganState. Closest game all season was a 17 point victory over #3 Texas.

2) Michigan (7-0): Nasty defense. Tough, balanced offense. Screw the BCS Title game, Nov. 18th against OSU may decide the champion this year.

3) Texas (6-1): They beat USC to end last season. They’d beat them this year too.

4) USC (6-0): Unimpressive three straight weeks against mediocre teams. The big win over Arkansas was a long time ago.

5) Tennessee (5-1): Had the week off. Doesn’t matter, watch the Georgia and Cal games. This team is good.

6) West Virginia (6-0): They run and they run and they run…but one dimension isn’t going to beat OhioState or Michigan.

7) Auburn (6-1): Way to bounce back. Florida’s probably a better team – remember they played at Auburn – but have to give the Tigers their due for at least one week.

8) Florida (6-1): Great team, but showed a lack of poise down the stretch against Auburn.

9) California (6-1): The show down with USC is still four weeks away. Based on the last three weeks, they’d route the Trojans. But all seven games count and they will need to thrash the Trojans to make people forget the beat down Tennessee gave them.

10) Louisville (6-0): Cincinnati had three shots at the endzone to win the game. They are lucky to be this high.


http://www.truchamp.com/?pc=article&p=view&id=79
 
nice articles jump, as a die-hard Texas fan it was nice to see that at least a couple of people in this country are not overlooking the defending national champions who's only loss came to the undisputed number one team in the country. I would really like to get my shot at some of these computer geeks who thought that Texas was the 18th best team in the country. Too bad these assholes don't wager with their rankings...if they did, they wouldn't be able to afford a computer.
 
You're forgetting that Auburn could, and most likely will, lose that SEC championship game.

Louisville/Michigan in the natty championship game :cheers:
 
OrangeLover said:
nice articles jump, as a die-hard Texas fan it was nice to see that at least a couple of people in this country are not overlooking the defending national champions who's only loss came to the undisputed number one team in the country. I would really like to get my shot at some of these computer geeks who thought that Texas was the 18th best team in the country. Too bad these assholes don't wager with their rankings...if they did, they wouldn't be able to afford a computer.

Damn i wrote this long writeup but it got erased :hairout:
Basically even after playing tosu texas has the 60th ranked schedule.. compared to the 6 teams above them who in that group the worst has the 21st schedule
Texas plays in the big 12 the 6th ranked conf.. Yes even worst than the big east..
Texas doesnt deserve to go based on their body of work.. :shake:Before all the horn homers come out from every where and attack me, please not i didnt say yall were bad or what not, just say based on ur body of work.. u dont deserve it. Congrats on Beating ou.. What will ur next best win? Nebraska? Baylor? Sam Houston :shake: I wouldnt be suprised to see USC or even auburn with even 2 losses rated higher than texas by the computers :drinking:
 
rjurewitz said:
This is probably the worst BCS poll I have ever seen.

USC #2. Fuckin' please.

Auburn #4. Whatever.

WVU #5. Forget it.

Louisville #7. Not right now they're not.

Do these assholes even watch CFB because we know the computers don't.

So who should be #2? Auburn beat florida and Lsu.. violin Texas has beat OU and Rice.. Im not sure how you can argue these at all.
USC Has played the hardest schedule in the country so far to date and they still havent played oregon, cal and notre dame. How about giving this team props, who cares if they dont win by 40. Ohio St didnt that one year and they won the championship
 
I think we have to stop the SEC favortism... sure they beat up each other all year long... and they are all very good teams... but look no further than what WVU did to GA and what Wisky did to Auburn. Wisky wasn't even close to OSU either last year and embarassed SEC's best. Bottom line here is... they don't travel outside the conference and are all located with a few hours by plane of one another... Until they do the SEC is a bunch of ranked quality teams beating one another up. I think Texas would easily handle any SEC team.. and think Wisky once again probably could and would and they are the 3rd best team in the B10. If Michigan losses the last game of the season to Ohio St. by 3 in a thriller... and Auburn gets in after losing at home to Arky... that would be robbery.

I'm not saying the SEC is worse, I just don't think it's fair to assume they should be the only conference who should send a one loss team.
 
Who has USC played? Arkansas? Arizona St.? Washington? I think USC is being disrespected but don't think they have the toughest schedule. They don't have those gimmies like some other schools... no one ranked over 100... but where's a top 15-20 school or a tough roadie behind them?

Not to say the schedule comming up doesn't qualify them for one of the toughest.
 
fuck usc and boise.

Michigan and whoever stays undefeated in the big east. If either WVU or Louisville loses and Auburn loses no more, then Michigan beats auburn for the NC.

:)

big blue koolaid is tastey...
 
Inspekdah said:
Who has USC played? Arkansas? Arizona St.? Washington? I think USC is being disrespected but don't think they have the toughest schedule. They don't have those gimmies like some other schools... no one ranked over 100... but where's a top 15-20 school or a tough roadie behind them?

Not to say the schedule comming up doesn't qualify them for one of the toughest.

What are you talkin about? At Ark. is pretty tough. Non Conf Nebraska?
I didnt say that schedule was impossible. Im not an sec homer either. It just has more teams ranked higher than the other conferences.
USC has gone on the road and won big games, who besides ohio st and florida has done that?
I just looked at the computers ranking for SOS. Im pretty sure that the majority of the teams usc will beat will make a bowl game :shake: Dont think i can say the same for texas
 
Inspekdah said:
I think we have to stop the SEC favortism... sure they beat up each other all year long... and they are all very good teams... but look no further than what WVU did to GA and what Wisky did to Auburn. Wisky wasn't even close to OSU either last year and embarassed SEC's best. Bottom line here is... they don't travel outside the conference and are all located with a few hours by plane of one another... Until they do the SEC is a bunch of ranked quality teams beating one another up. I think Texas would easily handle any SEC team.. and think Wisky once again probably could and would and they are the 3rd best team in the B10. If Michigan losses the last game of the season to Ohio St. by 3 in a thriller... and Auburn gets in after losing at home to Arky... that would be robbery.

I'm not saying the SEC is worse, I just don't think it's fair to assume they should be the only conference who should send a one loss team.

Who has michigan beaten besides notre dame at home? If they lose to ohio st then maybe 4 or 5 teams they play make a bowl game.
All i am saying is the top 4 in the sec are better than the top 4 in any confrence from 1 to 4
 
well, since CAL is gonna win the Pac-10...the USC discussion will be moot.

winner of Ohio St/Michigan gets in, obviously. i jsut hope the 2nd team is a top one loss team...and not someone like West Virginia, who may go undefeated.
a team like West Virginia is NOT as good as the loser of Ohio St/Michigan, whoever wins the SEC, and so forth.
 
if you think wvu stinks your on crack....yes their defenese is yound and not that good but it think they beat michigan any day of the week. they could beat auburn as well and usc. however wvu would to tOSU,LSU,and Texas. Lousiville has a good chance as well in a toss up game. i know this team well and they woul dlose to a team who has almost as eqaul talent on offense and very good defense. but they have to have both like the teams i mentioned above..
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
well, since CAL is gonna win the Pac-10...the USC discussion will be moot.

winner of Ohio St/Michigan gets in, obviously. i jsut hope the 2nd team is a top one loss team...and not someone like West Virginia, who may go undefeated.
a team like West Virginia is NOT as good as the loser of Ohio St/Michigan, whoever wins the SEC, and so forth.

I agree with that, it will be a shame for usc to play in the toughest ranked conference, and also play out of conf games of Notre Dame -- Nebraska and At arkansas and have only 1 loss then some scrub team like UL makes it in over them
 
TroyStacks said:
if you think wvu stinks your on crack....yes their defenese is yound and not that good but it think they beat michigan any day of the week. they could beat auburn as well and usc. however wvu would to tOSU,LSU,and Texas. Lousiville has a good chance as well in a toss up game. i know this team well and they woul dlose to a team who has almost as eqaul talent on offense and very good defense. but they have to have both like the teams i mentioned above..

They play in a bs conference.. They knew that coming into the season and they scheduled the biggest jokes for out of conf games
Eastern Washington -- Syracuse -- Miss ST -- Thus the 100th toughest schedule in the country thus far.. Pretty simple.
 
yeah no one is saying that but they can score on any defense in the country. the will score atleast 20 points on anybody you can bet that
 
With all due respect, we haven't seen anything yet that makes it worth judging WVU. Their games worth anything all take place soon...Louisville, Pitt...I believe they play Rutgers too...

I don't think that WVU beats Louisville at Papa John, but if they do and if they take care of business the rest of the schedule, they have a legitimate claim to the National Championship.

I also think that you guys are not giving nearly enough credit to the SEC. They might not have the elite team to be worth a National Championship (although I honestly think if someone wins the SEC Champ with 1 loss, that team is probably one of the top 2 teams in the country)...but Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee are all probably top 15 teams, and even the second tier of the SEC, Alabama, Arkansas would put up more than an excellent fight against most other conferences 2nd or 3rd best teams...
 
I didnt say WVU was a bad team.. just said they dont deserve to be there even with a 1 loss auburn michigan or usc
 
kinda what i was getting at with these SEC teams or whatever. there'll be a few one loss teams, from the elite conferences, that would all be better #2s than an undefeated West Virginia. i don't think they stink by any means though.
the only potential exception to this for me would be Louisville.

but abcs, and this is from a trojan fan...you missed that i said CAL will win the pac-10.

in fact, USC has that 3 game stretch late in the year...& i wouldn't be surprised if they're a 2 loss team.
 
abcs, you won't here any shit from me in regards to Texas because I agree with you. Texas hasn't beaten anyone yet but OU and its showing right now on their SOS.

But Texas still has a game at Nebraska who is currently 6-1 and will probably finish the season at either 10-2 or 9-3. After Texas the only real tough games they have on their schedule are Mizzu at home and at A&M. They should finish the season ranked pretty well.

Texas also plays A&M and even though they struggled with Army still sit at 6-1 as well. Looking at their schedule they could easily be coming to Austin wth a 10-1 or 9-2 record depending on what they do at Nebraska. They have OU at home who I think they beat now with Adrian Peterson as the only other tough opponent. This will also help Texas in the computers if Texas beats them.

The big thing that Texas needs is for Mizzu to win the Big 12 North. Texas won't get extra points for beating Nebraska twice in the Big 12 title game so playing Mizzu would be a huge boost. Mizzu depending on what happens at Nebraska is probably walking into the Big 12 title game with an 11-1 record and high ranking if it beats Nebraska. They play OU at home and once again I think they handle OU because Peterson is out.

If Texas who is #5 in all human polls right now is 12-1 with their only loss being to what will probably be the #1 team in the country they will be sitting in the #2 or #3 spot at the end of the year in all human polls probably depending on what happens to USC who I think loses to Cal, and the winner of the Louisville/WVU game who coud easily be upset by a Pitt or Rutgers.

You get more points in the BCS for the number of vote points you get in the human polls plus Texas SOS will pick up from the teams I mentioned above for the computer polls.

This of course is all a moot point if they lose this Saturday but don't count out Texas just yet.
 
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