YoungGun11
Collaborating w/ Tip
Well boys here we are, I don't see any reason we can 't make a ton of money. If you have ever read my horse racing threads, I am not a tout or looking to make any money or brag or anything. I only care about passing along knowledge and showing people how easy it is to win at this game. Like sports betting knowledge is key. However the only difference is you are playing other players not the house. I would like to think I am as knowledgeable as any but can always learn. I would love to get a discussion going, and ask any questions you have regarding a play or a take. Saratoga Champ!
I will keep this clean and to the point, so not sifting through a ton of fluff and junk. I am an exotic player and focus only on Pick 4's and Pick 5's. This way I can win 10-20% of my wagers and be profitable. If you want to focus on win wagers, that is great too as this is the weekend to do it. Odds will be generous and you should only need to win 2-3 tickets a day to break even. If you wish to bet on something over 5-1, I recommend putting WPS. I rarely recommend WPS however with big fields and big odds, it makes sense to bet across the board. You don't want to lose by a nose on your 12-1 shot and be down, instead of up. I will post who I am using in my pick 4 or pick 5. I will post a top pick, and in (parenthesis will be horses I would like to use, or am scared of but did not use.
Keeneland Friday 11:30 Central
1: If this is the worst race of the weekend, I am shocked. This race is full of speed and is the start of the pick 5. In a claiming race there is horses in here that have raced against monsters like Runhappy and Rockfall. I cannot figure out who is going to be the speed of the speed here, so I am opting for all of them. 23457 is the play. Top selection will be the 3 Bump Start who is 9-13 in the top 3 and lightly raced. 10-1 on the line but expect him to be bet down exiting a race in the mud against Runhappy. Should like the class relief today and has been favored in 3 of the last 7. Should be rolling late as the speed tires.
1: 23457 TOP PICK 3 BUMPSTART
2: Another 6 furlong sprint. I see this one pretty clearly and pretty chalky. I see the top picks all being between 2-1 and 7-2, as the drop off is quite steep. The 1 Steet Blush is a wild card, witching trainers and winning by open lengths in a 9 horse field at Saratoga is nothing to bat an eye at and could improve. Layoff, Post #1, first time winners kept me from making her my top pick. I will use the 15679 The 56 are the class of the field and could be favored. The 7 Chantline loves to run top 3 and is always competitive. I like 7 the least however I can't bring myself to leave out Santana and Asmussen who win 25% together. The 9 Smooth Caramel is a huge threat winning last 2 by open lengths no idea how good she is off the claim. Top pick is the 5 Titanium. 2nd off the layoff and cutting back. I like the ability to sit close and work out a good trip. I expect all of 3-1 on her as I feel 1 and 9 are likely to be bet down.
2: 15679 TOP Pick 5 Titanium
3: 7 furlong spring where 10 go, and finally see some viable long shots. I will use thje 1 Sweet daddy on my ticket. Any horse regardless of surface or class who wins 3 in a row and is 6 for 19 has my attention. This horse has a desire to win. The knock is never been on the dirt but sports a bullet work at Hawthorne who is notorious for being a deep tiring track. I will use 134679. This is a difficult race as 7 furlongs usually is. I think the 2810 could catch a piece for you exotic players playing tri's and supers. 9 Truth or Else is my top pick. Nothing sexy here, very simple. CLASS OF THE FIELD. 2nd time off layoff, and cutting back again. The others all have potential with great trainers, but will be running for 2nd. Don't leave 1 Sweet daddy off your ticket.
3: 134679 (2810) TOP PICK 9 The truth or else
4: Turf stakes race and here we go full field of 12. I think the 234 are WEAK. They are must uses but they are weak. I also am not crazy about the 9 who could run them off their feet or finish off the board. Horse is only 1 for 4 on the turf, although can never sleep on Lezcano and Mcpeek definitely the class, but will also be hammered at the window. I am using 234891012. The 5 and 6 scare me, good jockeys been running in classy races and scare me but don't fit the bill. Top pick will be the 10. I think Billy's Star will sit a good trip. The races on the turf at woodbine are the real deal and this horse has been competitive. Attfield spots his horses in the right spots and is 20% this year. Love the pick up of Rosario and will get all of 8-1 considering the 23 will be grossly overbet. Don't leave 12 out of exotics. If this horse takes to the turf which he could, watch out!
4: 234891012 (56) TOP PICK 10 Billy's Star
5: Fayetter G2. I think the good look good here but there are some sleepers underneath. V.E. day could be sitting on a big one off a nice freshening. Been running against some toughies lately like Honor Code, Liam's Map, tonalist, and Coach inge and running admirably. I hate that baffert ships and never gives an official work over the track. Must use but won't bet! Pletcher enters 3 and all come out of a clunker race. I am not sure if Race day will ever be the same but if he runs back he could win. The sleepers I can't use but would be good for exotics are the 12811. The 11 is sneaky from the 11th post and is jumping in class major, but he is 2-2 at Keeneland and seems to do what needs to be done to win at this track, just likely not good enough.
5: 34569 (18) TOP PICK 4 V.E. Day
6: BC Juvenile Turf. I singled the 8 Airoforce last time at 5-1 from the 14th post, and he ran as expected and crushed. I can't go against a horse who has done everything asked of him. 2-2 winning first time going to turns and from the 14th post is impressive and should onlu improve. The 8th post will be perfect for him with this many entered. I as usually think highly of the euro's but man did they get fucked on the post positions, especially on this track and this distance they will need a lot to fall into place for them. It should be noted the likely favorite the 14 horse is 2-2 and even beat 22 horses his first race out. This race can make your head spin, and will be all about sitting the trip. It pains me that all of my picks are on the outside.
6: 6810121314 (25711) TOP PICK 8 Airoforce
7: BC Dirt Mile. Don't get cute, don't overthink it. LIAM'S MAP LIAM'S MAP. He will be untouched in this race which is why they chose this one. Use 6 in all exotics and underneath, sleeper can run.
7: 13589 (26710) TOP PICK 3 Liam's Map.
8: BCJuvenile Fillies Turf. When I cap Fillies, I often find it is hard to find a consistent female, this is in my personal life and in my horse capping. These things are hit or miss.My top pick is the 10 illuminate. She is 4-4 in the top 2 and been running against some toughies, including wining by 2 lengths in a 18 horse field. The main threats also on my ticket are 3478. I think 4 looks great however he will be challenged all the way around by the 5 who is cheap speed. Harmonize will be over bet and no value. If you use the 8 I am not sure how you don't use the 7, which is 10-1 instead of 7-2.
8: 234781012 TOP PICK 10 ILLUMINATE
9: BCDistaff. I just can't find a way around 7 Wedding Toast. It isn't too appealing being the favorite, but with UNBETTABLE out and no Beholder, I think this horse has the best chance. This will be my single in pick 4 I believe. The others to include are 4891214 some of the main contenders got the worst posts, I think I am most afraid of 9 and 12 don't sleep on those at a decent price. This is a race I would feel great taking my picks and boxing them in exacta's tri's and super's think it is covered.
9: 47891214 (1) TOP PICK 7WEDDING TOAST
WILL BE ADDING MORE, BUT NEED TO RUN NOW. FEEL FREE TO POST ANY THOUGHTS OR QUESTIONS!!!!
I will keep this clean and to the point, so not sifting through a ton of fluff and junk. I am an exotic player and focus only on Pick 4's and Pick 5's. This way I can win 10-20% of my wagers and be profitable. If you want to focus on win wagers, that is great too as this is the weekend to do it. Odds will be generous and you should only need to win 2-3 tickets a day to break even. If you wish to bet on something over 5-1, I recommend putting WPS. I rarely recommend WPS however with big fields and big odds, it makes sense to bet across the board. You don't want to lose by a nose on your 12-1 shot and be down, instead of up. I will post who I am using in my pick 4 or pick 5. I will post a top pick, and in (parenthesis will be horses I would like to use, or am scared of but did not use.
Keeneland Friday 11:30 Central
1: If this is the worst race of the weekend, I am shocked. This race is full of speed and is the start of the pick 5. In a claiming race there is horses in here that have raced against monsters like Runhappy and Rockfall. I cannot figure out who is going to be the speed of the speed here, so I am opting for all of them. 23457 is the play. Top selection will be the 3 Bump Start who is 9-13 in the top 3 and lightly raced. 10-1 on the line but expect him to be bet down exiting a race in the mud against Runhappy. Should like the class relief today and has been favored in 3 of the last 7. Should be rolling late as the speed tires.
1: 23457 TOP PICK 3 BUMPSTART
2: Another 6 furlong sprint. I see this one pretty clearly and pretty chalky. I see the top picks all being between 2-1 and 7-2, as the drop off is quite steep. The 1 Steet Blush is a wild card, witching trainers and winning by open lengths in a 9 horse field at Saratoga is nothing to bat an eye at and could improve. Layoff, Post #1, first time winners kept me from making her my top pick. I will use the 15679 The 56 are the class of the field and could be favored. The 7 Chantline loves to run top 3 and is always competitive. I like 7 the least however I can't bring myself to leave out Santana and Asmussen who win 25% together. The 9 Smooth Caramel is a huge threat winning last 2 by open lengths no idea how good she is off the claim. Top pick is the 5 Titanium. 2nd off the layoff and cutting back. I like the ability to sit close and work out a good trip. I expect all of 3-1 on her as I feel 1 and 9 are likely to be bet down.
2: 15679 TOP Pick 5 Titanium
3: 7 furlong spring where 10 go, and finally see some viable long shots. I will use thje 1 Sweet daddy on my ticket. Any horse regardless of surface or class who wins 3 in a row and is 6 for 19 has my attention. This horse has a desire to win. The knock is never been on the dirt but sports a bullet work at Hawthorne who is notorious for being a deep tiring track. I will use 134679. This is a difficult race as 7 furlongs usually is. I think the 2810 could catch a piece for you exotic players playing tri's and supers. 9 Truth or Else is my top pick. Nothing sexy here, very simple. CLASS OF THE FIELD. 2nd time off layoff, and cutting back again. The others all have potential with great trainers, but will be running for 2nd. Don't leave 1 Sweet daddy off your ticket.
3: 134679 (2810) TOP PICK 9 The truth or else
4: Turf stakes race and here we go full field of 12. I think the 234 are WEAK. They are must uses but they are weak. I also am not crazy about the 9 who could run them off their feet or finish off the board. Horse is only 1 for 4 on the turf, although can never sleep on Lezcano and Mcpeek definitely the class, but will also be hammered at the window. I am using 234891012. The 5 and 6 scare me, good jockeys been running in classy races and scare me but don't fit the bill. Top pick will be the 10. I think Billy's Star will sit a good trip. The races on the turf at woodbine are the real deal and this horse has been competitive. Attfield spots his horses in the right spots and is 20% this year. Love the pick up of Rosario and will get all of 8-1 considering the 23 will be grossly overbet. Don't leave 12 out of exotics. If this horse takes to the turf which he could, watch out!
4: 234891012 (56) TOP PICK 10 Billy's Star
5: Fayetter G2. I think the good look good here but there are some sleepers underneath. V.E. day could be sitting on a big one off a nice freshening. Been running against some toughies lately like Honor Code, Liam's Map, tonalist, and Coach inge and running admirably. I hate that baffert ships and never gives an official work over the track. Must use but won't bet! Pletcher enters 3 and all come out of a clunker race. I am not sure if Race day will ever be the same but if he runs back he could win. The sleepers I can't use but would be good for exotics are the 12811. The 11 is sneaky from the 11th post and is jumping in class major, but he is 2-2 at Keeneland and seems to do what needs to be done to win at this track, just likely not good enough.
5: 34569 (18) TOP PICK 4 V.E. Day
6: BC Juvenile Turf. I singled the 8 Airoforce last time at 5-1 from the 14th post, and he ran as expected and crushed. I can't go against a horse who has done everything asked of him. 2-2 winning first time going to turns and from the 14th post is impressive and should onlu improve. The 8th post will be perfect for him with this many entered. I as usually think highly of the euro's but man did they get fucked on the post positions, especially on this track and this distance they will need a lot to fall into place for them. It should be noted the likely favorite the 14 horse is 2-2 and even beat 22 horses his first race out. This race can make your head spin, and will be all about sitting the trip. It pains me that all of my picks are on the outside.
6: 6810121314 (25711) TOP PICK 8 Airoforce
7: BC Dirt Mile. Don't get cute, don't overthink it. LIAM'S MAP LIAM'S MAP. He will be untouched in this race which is why they chose this one. Use 6 in all exotics and underneath, sleeper can run.
7: 13589 (26710) TOP PICK 3 Liam's Map.
8: BCJuvenile Fillies Turf. When I cap Fillies, I often find it is hard to find a consistent female, this is in my personal life and in my horse capping. These things are hit or miss.My top pick is the 10 illuminate. She is 4-4 in the top 2 and been running against some toughies, including wining by 2 lengths in a 18 horse field. The main threats also on my ticket are 3478. I think 4 looks great however he will be challenged all the way around by the 5 who is cheap speed. Harmonize will be over bet and no value. If you use the 8 I am not sure how you don't use the 7, which is 10-1 instead of 7-2.
8: 234781012 TOP PICK 10 ILLUMINATE
9: BCDistaff. I just can't find a way around 7 Wedding Toast. It isn't too appealing being the favorite, but with UNBETTABLE out and no Beholder, I think this horse has the best chance. This will be my single in pick 4 I believe. The others to include are 4891214 some of the main contenders got the worst posts, I think I am most afraid of 9 and 12 don't sleep on those at a decent price. This is a race I would feel great taking my picks and boxing them in exacta's tri's and super's think it is covered.
9: 47891214 (1) TOP PICK 7WEDDING TOAST
WILL BE ADDING MORE, BUT NEED TO RUN NOW. FEEL FREE TO POST ANY THOUGHTS OR QUESTIONS!!!!
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