Y26's Week #7 of CFB


CTG Partner
Got a few plays made today. But for the most part, i'm gonna ride things out and see how the lines move over the remainder of the week.
Week six sure started poorly, but it also closed very well with Tenn/WashSt/TX/Cal/Mizzou all coming through in the afternoon.
CFB YTD: 41-44-2, -3.6
Parlays: 1-1, +.327
Teasers: 0-4, -2
Still got some work to do. The totals are jsut killing me this year for some reason. So what do i do, i go and play some more...though i'll try like hell to keep it to jsut two or three of these fuckers this week.
But here's what's done already. I'll add to the list over the course of the week.

Missouri (-3) over Texas A&M (+106) for 2 units

Minnesota/Wisconsin over 49 (-105) for 2 units

Tulsa (-2.5) over E Carolina (+100) for 2 units

California/Washington St over 55 (-105) for 2 units

Houston (+1.5) over So Mississippi (+101) for 2 units

Unreal the lack of respect Missouri got last week, and is still getting here.
Back with more thoughts, at a more reasonable hour...and more plays too.

GL with your capping.:drink:
Yanks, I'm on Mizzou as well, but this will be a very tough game for them. A&M should have beat Tech and will give Mizzou everything they have. I definitely see this one going to the wire.

I know Houston is playing well and So Miss is missing Dustin Almond a bit, but the Eagles are very strong in Hattisburg. Not saying they can't win, but I would lean toward So Miss myself.

Good luck this week !
I'm actually thinking of taking East Carolina as the home dog this week. Both these teams have been ATS darlings, but East Carolina has been very tough at home and has played some decent competition. Tulsa likes to pass and east Carolina has been good defending the pass. This being a conference game, I think East Carolina will be very focused.

Good luck on your other plays, Yanks!
thx guys. i really love Mizzou this week. houston i really like, but ya never know which houston team will show up.
den...jsut think tulsa has the better offense, and the better defense.
no more plays yet...

still researching, and watching the lines. unfortunately, Penn St is never gonna get back up over 7 pts, so prolly a no play.

jsut went over the year so far, and found something interesting. i've been kinda perplexed as to why i'm not winning in cfb so far this year. historically, i win in cfb...and more often than not, give it back in the nfl. last couple years i won at both, but not as much in cfb as i'm used to.
anyways, i don't usually separate my numbers...but the totals are indeed killing me this year.
so far i'm 35-30-2 on sides, and 6-14 on totals...thus the 41-44-2 record. not sure how much the rule changes played a part in this...but got-damned do i need to step away from the totals, until i get this shit worked out again. just unreal to me that (in terms of my total plays this year) throwing darts or something would totally be outperforming my systems and capping. anyways...gonna stick to the sides for the time being...for obvious reasons...jsut found this info both interesting and alarming.
Mizzou/A&M...my 2 cents

Got a lot of opinions on this game...and i still think Mizzou isn't getting the credit they deserve so far this year.

Yes, i know about all the turnovers of Tx Tech. And everyone seems to want to chalk it up to Tech playing so poorly. But what about giving Mizzou some credit for both forcing those turnovers, and then taking advantage of them?
Guess it depends on which side you played last week, but take the MNF game this week. I had the Ravens, and blamed McNair for having a poor game and throwing the costly picks. But conversely, i'm sure Denver backers would see it that the Bronco defense jsut played a supurb game, and made the plays. Just saying the perception can go wither way.
But back to last week's CFB game...yes, Tech turned the ball over, and Mizzou converted those TOs into points...but maybe Mizzou should be credited a bit more for their performance...for forcing a fumble on a sack, making the pick, and so forth.

Anyways, let's get into this matchup. First off, i do think this should be a very good game...and i cap it as Mizzou winning by a TD, only cuz A&M is a tough place to play for sure.
But that's also why it's gambling. A&M (under Fran) is one of the most unpredictable teams, imo. Historically, they're good for a couple great games...where they basically play over their heads against very tough competition. Yet Fran's A&M teams are also equally good to lay at least a couple eggs during the course of a season...and completely under-perform.

Neither A&M or Mizzou have played the greatest of schedules so far, to say the least. Neither has Tx Tech for that matter. But Mizzou's pretty much handled their games so far this year.
Yes, they let Tech come back a bit. But after jumping out to such a big early lead, maybe it was nothing more than a temporary letdown &/or easing up by the team...because as soon as it got too close for comfort, Mizzou shut the door and pulled away again.
On the other hand, A&M looked like crap vs Army...who has lost to both Arky St and Rice this year. Whether they deserved to or not, A&M still lost to Tx Tech this year...who lost to TCU, lol. And A&M barely beat that offensive powerhouse known as Kansas the other week, and even that needed a 14 pt 4th Q comeback. The same Kansas team that barely beat South Florida, and lost to Toledo this year. Not impressive at all, especially knowing the Kansas defense is absolutely nothing like it was last year.

Now let's look at the matchups a bit.
Mizzou, Tx Tech, and A&M all have pretty good offenses. Yardage wise it would go Tech, Mizzou, and A&M...but they're all really close.
A key difference is that Tech has most of their success passing. A&M has most their success running. And Mizzou is the more balanced of this group, between run and pass.
Tech mounted that attempted comeback against Mizzou passing the ball, for the most part. And even though Mizzou's defense has been very good this year, the real strength of that defense is up front and agaisnt the run. Which is conversely what A&M relies upon mostly to move the ball. So where Tech had that period of success against Mizzou, A&M (being more reliant on running the ball) will not necessarily be able to do the same thing. For A&M to have some success against this Mizzou defense, they're gonna have to pass the ball a lot more than they're used to doing...cuz those yards ont he ground jsut aren't gonna be there.

Offensive #'s:
TxTech = 436 yds, 352 pass, 84 rush
TxA&M = 412 yds, 208 pass, 203 rush
Mizzou = 423 yds, 244 pass, 179 rush

Defensive #'s:
TxTech = 290 yds, 147 pass, 143 rush
TxA&M = 293 yds, 179 pass, 113 rush
Mizzou = 255 yds, 182 pass, 72 rush

And these #'s are all agaisnt poor to average teams, all fairly soft schedules...no great disparaties between these three in that respect.

Anyways...like i said, imo Mizzou isn't getting the credit they deserve. And i think some are being too quick to fault Tx Tech, and not give Mizzou their due...though the reality of things is prolly somewhere in the middle, as it usually is.
But imo Mizzou is the better team here, and by a decent amount. The numbers show it, as do the first 6 weeks of the season. And when you consider the success Tech had in the middle of the game agaisnt Mizzou last week, know that it was also Tech's strength against what hasn't shown to be Mizzou's strength this year...the passing game. And A&M's strength, running, will have to go up agaisnt what is indeed Mizzou's defensive strength so far this year.
Just something to consider...though i do agree A&M is highly unpredictable, and that A&M is a very tough place to play. Cuz w/out those factors considered, i'd be playing this game a helluva lot harder.
Yet with fairly comparable schedules, Mizzou has both the better offense and the better defense in this game...and imo they continue to roll this weekend.
oh well...

no one agrees or disagrees w/ my Mizzou reasoning? no worries...gonna be a good game, either way. both sides can make a very good case.

late additions to Saturday...before i finally go to sleep, and miss all the early games.

Penn St (+5.5) over Michigan (+100) for 2 units

Auburn ML (+109) over Florida for 2 units

Nebraska/Kansas St over 43.5 (-105) for 2 units

Wyoming (+3) over Utah (-105) for 2 units

The Penn St line never got better than where it opened up, unfortunately.
Also threw in a teaser, including a bunch of games i basically liked SU...but was wary of the spread.

Wisky (-1)
Cal (-1)
Ohio St (-7)
Wash (-2)
Oregon (-2)
Arizona (+3.5)
1/2 unit to win 2.5

Good luck today, boys & girls. Enjoy your weekend. :drink:
Heh, I did almost that exact same teaser except..Oregon, Cal, Wisky and 3 NFL games...

Good Luck to you (and us)

Be weary of my Wildcats though, if we lose it will probably be by more than a feild goal :( but I'm confident we are 3-4 after tomorrow