Mizzou/A&M...my 2 cents
Got a lot of opinions on this game...and i still think Mizzou isn't getting the credit they deserve so far this year.
Yes, i know about all the turnovers of Tx Tech. And everyone seems to want to chalk it up to Tech playing so poorly. But what about giving Mizzou some credit for both forcing those turnovers, and then taking advantage of them?
Guess it depends on which side you played last week, but take the MNF game this week. I had the Ravens, and blamed McNair for having a poor game and throwing the costly picks. But conversely, i'm sure Denver backers would see it that the Bronco defense jsut played a supurb game, and made the plays. Just saying the perception can go wither way.
But back to last week's CFB game...yes, Tech turned the ball over, and Mizzou converted those TOs into points...but maybe Mizzou should be credited a bit more for their performance...for forcing a fumble on a sack, making the pick, and so forth.
Anyways, let's get into this matchup. First off, i do think this should be a very good game...and i cap it as Mizzou winning by a TD, only cuz A&M is a tough place to play for sure.
But that's also why it's gambling. A&M (under Fran) is one of the most unpredictable teams, imo. Historically, they're good for a couple great games...where they basically play over their heads against very tough competition. Yet Fran's A&M teams are also equally good to lay at least a couple eggs during the course of a season...and completely under-perform.
Neither A&M or Mizzou have played the greatest of schedules so far, to say the least. Neither has Tx Tech for that matter. But Mizzou's pretty much handled their games so far this year.
Yes, they let Tech come back a bit. But after jumping out to such a big early lead, maybe it was nothing more than a temporary letdown &/or easing up by the team...because as soon as it got too close for comfort, Mizzou shut the door and pulled away again.
On the other hand, A&M looked like crap vs Army...who has lost to both Arky St and Rice this year. Whether they deserved to or not, A&M still lost to Tx Tech this year...who lost to TCU, lol. And A&M barely beat that offensive powerhouse known as Kansas the other week, and even that needed a 14 pt 4th Q comeback. The same Kansas team that barely beat South Florida, and lost to Toledo this year. Not impressive at all, especially knowing the Kansas defense is absolutely nothing like it was last year.
Now let's look at the matchups a bit.
Mizzou, Tx Tech, and A&M all have pretty good offenses. Yardage wise it would go Tech, Mizzou, and A&M...but they're all really close.
A key difference is that Tech has most of their success passing. A&M has most their success running. And Mizzou is the more balanced of this group, between run and pass.
Tech mounted that attempted comeback against Mizzou passing the ball, for the most part. And even though Mizzou's defense has been very good this year, the real strength of that defense is up front and agaisnt the run. Which is conversely what A&M relies upon mostly to move the ball. So where Tech had that period of success against Mizzou, A&M (being more reliant on running the ball) will not necessarily be able to do the same thing. For A&M to have some success against this Mizzou defense, they're gonna have to pass the ball a lot more than they're used to doing...cuz those yards ont he ground jsut aren't gonna be there.
Offensive #'s:
TxTech = 436 yds, 352 pass, 84 rush
TxA&M = 412 yds, 208 pass, 203 rush
Mizzou = 423 yds, 244 pass, 179 rush
Defensive #'s:
TxTech = 290 yds, 147 pass, 143 rush
TxA&M = 293 yds, 179 pass, 113 rush
Mizzou = 255 yds, 182 pass, 72 rush
And these #'s are all agaisnt poor to average teams, all fairly soft schedules...no great disparaties between these three in that respect.
Anyways...like i said, imo Mizzou isn't getting the credit they deserve. And i think some are being too quick to fault Tx Tech, and not give Mizzou their due...though the reality of things is prolly somewhere in the middle, as it usually is.
But imo Mizzou is the better team here, and by a decent amount. The numbers show it, as do the first 6 weeks of the season. And when you consider the success Tech had in the middle of the game agaisnt Mizzou last week, know that it was also Tech's strength against what hasn't shown to be Mizzou's strength this year...the passing game. And A&M's strength, running, will have to go up agaisnt what is indeed Mizzou's defensive strength so far this year.
Just something to consider...though i do agree A&M is highly unpredictable, and that A&M is a very tough place to play. Cuz w/out those factors considered, i'd be playing this game a helluva lot harder.
Yet with fairly comparable schedules, Mizzou has both the better offense and the better defense in this game...and imo they continue to roll this weekend.
but I'm confident we are 3-4 after tomorrow
