Y26's Week #4 of CFB

[Yanks27Sox9]

Absolutely got my ass handed to me in week three, unfortunately, going 6-10 last saturday. Took away some of the gains from the first two weeks of CFB, but definitely all my momentum...lol.

CFB YTD: 22-21-1, +4.18 units
Parlays: 1-1, +.327 of a unit
Teasers: 0-1, -.5 of a unit

Anyways, getting a head start on the coming week, even though only one play is in the books. Gotta ton more work to do on the card...which at first glance isn't all the exciting &/or enticing.

Friday 9/22

Nevada -8 over Northwestern (-101) for 2 units

Nevada's at home, which seems to make all the difference. Good offense against a (well) below average defense. But the kicker for this play (for me) is just how truly bad the NW offense is TY. Gawd-awful to watch. But hey, NW is a team beaten by a 1-AA school at home TY...then barely took care of E Mich, also at home. And after this road game in Nevada, it only gets far worse for NW. But back to this game. Basically capping it at a very similar result (points-wise) to the New Hampshire loss...a 35-14 Nevada home win.

Interested to see Pags' take on this game...but i was too impatient to wait.

Anyhow...i'll obviously be back during the week with much more.
Happy hunting this week, boys.:shake:

 

[pags11]

yanks,

I've been pressed out of this game for a couple of reasons...Northwestern presents more of a problem for Nevada on the ground than CSU did...Nevada's never really seen a back like Tyrell Sutton (Fresno's Wright would be the closest thing they've seen to him this year)...yeah, I know that Northwestern is struggling, but they don't seem to be giving up many points this season...kind of taking on the personality of the coach...I don't think Fitzgerald minds winning ugly...Nevada's D-Line is an issue...

that being said, Nevada is pretty money at home...I think they can score in the mid to high twenties here, and their defense did play better yesterday...just see this thing being pretty close to the number, but I wouldn't go against Nevada at home...no play for me this week, but I wish you a lot of luck...

 

[HUNT]

Solid pick Yanks...

NW has really struggled IMO and travelling out west will be tough for them.

GL.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

sure hope so, Hunt. especially with what they got on deck, waiting. they're just so ugly to watch...

Pags...thx for the note.:shake:
Though i sure would feel more comfortable knowing you were on this too.
In any case, i hear what you're saying about Sutton...and Nevada's d-line. But imo they'll be able to focus on the run, stack the box...not having to worry about much of a passing game outta NW.
As far as NW's defense...imo, it's skewed cuz of who they've played. Miami-ohio was breaking in a new QB...and jsut couldn't get anything together. Actually the only decent offense they've faced so far was New Hampshire, the 1-AA loss they had...where they gave up 34 pts. I jsut see nevada's passing game having the same kinda success NH did.

 

[pags11]

yanks,

that's a good point about Northwestern's competition...I know that they caught Miami OH without RB Murphy in week one and noting the I-AA loss...this isn't the Northwestern of last year for sure...good points bud...Rowe played a lot better yesterday and Hubbard ran hard...it's always important to note that Ault likes looking good in front of the home fans...BOL here bud...

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

some more plays...

Hopefully that extra point on Nevada isn't going to bite me in the ass. Hate when the lines move against me. Too early there...and too late on others. Totally missed all value on USC and Louisville...so no plays there, as a result. And i'm not touching the thurs nite game either.

Anyways, made a bunch more plays for Saturday. Write ups will have to come later, cuz i'm running outta gas. For some reason, i always seem to be doing this shit at 3AM.


Notre Dame (-3.5) over Michigan St (+100) for 3 units

Notre Dame/Michigan St over 59 (-105) for 2 units

Will definitely get into more detail here soon...but motivation, revenge, and exercising some recent frustrations will be the key to a Domer blowout...in the range of a 45-24 final score.

Kentucky (+23) over Florida (+100) for 2 units

Boston College (-7) over NC State (+100) for 2 units

Oklahoma St (-1.5) over Houston (-101) for 2 units

Arizona St/California over 57 (-105) for 2 units

UCLA (-3.5) over Washington (+103) for 2 units

And i usually don't play halfs...but i really liked this one...

Virginia Tech (-14.5) over Cincinnati (+105) for 1H for 1 unit

Missed the better line, so because of the extra 1/2 point it's only a one unit play. But Cincy's offense is so pathetic, it really should be a 17 to 21 pt lead at the break...easily.


Last and always least, also threw down an early teaser...

VTech (-20)
Cal (-1)
BC (pk)
ND (+3)
1/2 unit to win 1.25

Prolly one more of these to come too. Definitely more plays though. Watching the lines on a couple games...still doing research on others.

The weekend can't get here soon enough...:cheers:

 

[pags11]

I like your BC play...

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I like your BC play...

i assume many will like BC this week. historically, this is a tough spot...but NCST (at least from the outside looking in) seems to be in complete disarray right now.
hopefully that translates into the play cashing in for us.:shake:


Wow...ND/Mich St line is down to 3. If i'm lucky enough to see 2.5, might jsut have to double up on this. We will see...

 

[RSMS9999]

totally agree with the nd-msu thoughts, why on okla st?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Saw that about ND/MSU. Should be fun.

totally agree with the nd-msu thoughts, why on okla st?

Few reasons i like Okie St here.
Line actually opened at Houston -3, and was quickly corrected to basically a pick em. Now Okie St is the slight fav...which is where i capped the game, being on the road in Houston.
That said, I can't give Houston the full home field here. Horn or Den would know better...but from the outside looking in, it seems like Okie St will be very well represented at this game. It's also an area Okie St seems to recruit very well from.
It will be back & forth...with lots of offense. Two pretty good offenses, that will put up their share of points. Gotta give Houston the passing edge obviously, and Okie St the running edge. But it's the running edge that'll control the clock...and keep Kolb on the sidelines.
Both teams have basically played three cupcakes, more or less, going 3-0 early. But where Okie St has completely dominated their 3 pansies...Houston hasn't necessarily. Still got a bad taste from that Rice game. Houston needed a big comeback to pull that one out. And Rice had quite a bit of success running the ball. Also wasn't impressed with the performance against 1-AA Grambling St...the Houston defense was giving up too many yards and points there....as the 1-AA team actually won the time of possession, mostly passing the ball.
So, going into the season, i woulda given Houston the slight edge on defense...with all they returned...on paper at least. But after three games in, albeit against cupcakes on both sides, i gotta give Okie St the small advantage on defense. Also TY, Okie St appears to be protecting the ball much better than LY.
Lastly, if it means much, Houston is 0-9 SU versus the Big 12. LY it was Kansas blowing them out.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

some more saturday additions...

couple more first halves...

Texas (-14) over Iowa St (-105) for 1H for 1 unit

W Virginia (-13.5) over E Carolina (-108) for 1H for 1 unit

How will one of the worst run defenses in the country stop, or even slow, one of the best run offenses?

also a side...

S Florida (+4) over Kansas (+105) for 2 units

Might be deserving of a ML look as well. South Florida will score their share against this year's Kansas defense.

BOL this weekend:cheers:
Still looking for more...

 

[Mugg]

Still got a bad taste from that Rice game.

Gawd, no shit.........I hammered that game & still can't believe it. Bad way to start the season,

Like those 1st hf plays

 

[SHSUHorn]

Love Okie St. and got it at +3. They roll Houston bigtime. No such thing as home field advantage at Robertson Stadium.

 

[RSMS9999]

nice job, you convinced me to stay away from the cougars. They were one of my "teams to bet on" before the season. good luck on osu

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

again, rice killed that for me TY

nice job, you convinced me to stay away from the cougars. They were one of my "teams to bet on" before the season. good luck on osu

check Sooner's cfb thread though. he's on Houston, but also gives an accurate assessment...from phil steele...basically saying it'll come down to who has the ball last. could very well prove true...

 

[SoonerBS]

Wow, Yanks!! I can get Kentucky right now at BetUS for +27!!!

I don't know why, but it looks to me like this line is continuing to go up in Kentucky's favor, so I'll wait a bit.

+26.5 at BetCRIS as well!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Wow, Yanks!! I can get Kentucky right now at BetUS for +27!!!

I don't know why, but it looks to me like this line is continuing to go up in Kentucky's favor, so I'll wait a bit.

+26.5 at BetCRIS as well!

jeezus c...see what you can get, and take it. kentucky routinely keeps it w/in the spread vs the gators. and like i said...all florida should be worrying about is getting and remaining healthy. not that they won't win the game, and keep kentucky at arms length (meaning 10-14 pts, maybe even 17)...but the 4 game stretch they have immediately following kentucky is what they're looking ahead to. w/out a doubt...especially auburn and lsu.
they jsut need to serve the suspension now, survive &/or nurse any injuries, and play enough to win the game. they got one, maybe even two, losses staring them in the face over that 4 game span..unless absolutely everything goes perfect against auburn and lsu.
if you see 28, un-fucking-load...

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

another teaser...

Mich (-6)
Minny (+4.5)
Iowa (-13.5)
UTEP (-2.5)
TXA&M (-16.5)
1/2 unit to win 1.75

This should about do me for the week. Nothing else turned up enticing enough to bite on. Though, depending on late line movements, i may end up tailing something like a Hawaii (Hawaiiguy) or UTEP (Sooner)...but we'll see how it goes.



Before i forget, i wanted to give some more thoughts on the ND/MSU game...which i played pretty big this week. Yes i expect ND to win big on saturday...and yes i also expect to hit the over here too...but jsut in case, that over is my safety net if MSU were to cover. Why? Because MSU will have to reach the 30s to even think of covering the spread.

Yes, i can see each team's numbers this year. But again, especially this early in the year, we can see numbers not necessarily being distorted...but not telling the whole story, to say the least. Let's look at this a bit deeper...

MSU beat a crap Idaho team 27-17. MSU beat a crap E Mich team 52-20. And MSU beat a very average Pitt team 38-23. Nothing to write home about here.
Both Idaho and E Mich are cupcakes. And Pitt hasn't beaten anyone TY. Pitt's 2 wins are against Virginia and Cincinnati...two of the most offensively challenged teams in the country, to be politically correct.
So MSU is 3-0, with some incredible offensive numbers...but imagine what ND's numbers would look like against these 3 teams. Imagine if they swapped schedules for the first 3 games. Doubt MSU would be 3-0...and i know MSU wouldn't be showing these gaudy offensive #'s at all.
And this isn't even taking into account the points MSU's defense allowed to these two crap teams, and one average team. Pitt put up 23, E Mich put up 20, and Idaho put up 17...and if you don't think ND will throw up at least 34 against this same defense, if not more, then maybe we're giving the idaho's and e michigan's of the world a little too much credit.

Now let's look at ND, and how their offensive #'s may be a bit skewed. ND beat GTech 14-10. And as we all saw tonight, GTech has an incredible swarming defense...one of the top units in the country. ND beat Penn St 41-17. Penn St is a good team, and still ranked in the top 25...where MSU is not. And of course ND got their asses handed to them by Michigan 47-21...where absolutely everything looked bad &/or went wrong. But hey, Michigan's a great team...on both sides of the ball.
So look at the 3 teams ND has played. 2, maybe even 3, decent to excellent defenses and teams. No cupcakes here to pad your statistics against. (Those come later in the year for ND, btw.)
Also, imo, MSU is much more equatable (overall) to a Penn St than they are to a Michigan...if you choose to look at things that way.

In any case, after ND wins this game over MSU...and gets their revenge for last year, while at the same time taking out all of their frustrations from last week's loss...ND will run the table, all the way up to the USC game. After this, the sailing is pretty damn clear for ND...and depending on other teams, they can very easily find themselves back in the discussion...at least up until the USC game, that is.

Anyways, i'm not saying MSU doesn't have a great offense. And i'm not saying ND doesn't have it's issues. What i am saying is the the numbers don't tell the entire story going into this game...especially after only 3 games, and with a tremendous variance in strength of schedules so far.

Lastly, there's the motivation factor. They can downplay it all they want. And i'm not even a ND fan. But ND, especially on defense, will be so motivated and focused, that i can't even see this game being that close. It'll make all the difference in the world, imo. And i'm sticking to my early in the week prediction...ND 45 - MSU 24.
And like i said...if i turn out to be wrong, that over will bail me out. But i don't see ND shitting the bed two weeks in a row. Too much at stake.

GL this saturday:cheers:

 

[SoonerBS]

Good luck this weekend, Yanks!

 

[NickFazekas]

good luck yanks. Might gobble up all those points on Kentucky now that you have pointed it out, thanks!

And I agree Mich st is nothing to write home about, I watched the Idaho game and they looked like either they sucked or they were shaving.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Nice looking card this week Yanks! With you on Nevada, UCLA, and Notre Dame. GL this weekend. :shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

final ND/MSU thoughts...

Aztec:shake: BOL today. We got a lot in common.
Nick:shake: Neither would surprise me, lol.
Sooner:shake: Same to you, buddy. Should be a great day of footsies.


Pretty much said everything i could on this game. But i got some interesting trends tonight as well.
It begins with something i heard crazy Corso say tonight. ND has won 14 of the L17 in East Lansing.
Knowing that MSU is 7-2 ATS in the L9...wanted to look a bit further.

Sure enough, the road team dominates (ats) this series. Road team is 5-0 ATS L5...which conversely means the home team is 0-5 ATS L5.
Also if interest...MSU is 0-5 ATS in their L5 night games.

Just some interesting tidbits. Should be a helluva game though.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

and a couple tails...

Got extremely lucky &/or fortunate with Nevada tonight...so rolling that over into a couple tails for Saturday, which will definitely now finalize my card.

Alabama ML (+121) over Arkansas for 1 unit

Hawaii (+14) over Boise St (-105) for 1 unit

Good luck today, boys & girls. Enjoy the games, and spank your book.
:cheers:

 

[KALIND]

:cheers:

 

[Sparky1019]

BOL Yanks :shake: :beer:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Frustrating day...:hairout:
6-8, dropping 4.1 units...but literally had a 12 unit swing on kicking alone today/tonight. ND, BC, and Bama.

I was wrong w/ ND, thinking they'd win comfortably. But that ones my fault. I was already in this game so much, that i didn't take the 2.5 and double up to be safe. So even though there was a missed extra point, as well as a missed 2 pt conversion, only got myself to really blame on this one...g-damn it.
With BC, jsut got the coach to blame. Dumb shit shoulda kicked the FG. Instead he goes for it...fails...and gets beat outright to boot. At least the idiot got what he deserved.
Bama hurts though. The ML was the right call...and this kicker should be strung up tonight. Misses 3 FGs...one of them in the 4th Q, and one to win in OT...but losses the game single-handedly by missing a PAT in the 2nd OT. Feel bad for Bama, cuz they won that game, multiple times...except on the scoreboard.

Anyways, enough bitching. That's why it's gambling. Little bad luck, couple bad decisions, and it turned into a 12 unit swing...just the wrong fucking way. Coulda, woulda, shoulda...


updated #'s
CFB YTD: 28-29-1, +.08 of a unit
Parlays: 1-1, +.327 of a unit
Teasers: 0-3, -1.5 units
Basically back to where i started the year, lol.
Damn kickers...

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah...weird day buddy...in many forms...you'll get those swings your way in coming weeks.

 

[SoonerBS]

Oklahoma State screwed you, too, Yanks. You and I talked about the fact that it was really a coin toss in that game -- you took Okie State and I took the home team. I watched the entire game and it came down to the fact that Houston wanted the ball game more. Okie's turnovers killed them and they just literally fell apart in the 4th quarter. Houston's crowd was just phenomenal in that game as well -- maybe the biggest and loudest they have ever had! You can't cap crowd participation, turnovers and desire, Yanks. That's the bottom line in that game.

You'll get it back, dude!

 

[RSMS9999]

kicking...

 

[RambleOn]

That sucks, Yanks. I was pissed at that kicker for missing the previous 3 field goals, and then was praising him for missing that extra point - pretty much locking in my Bama +2 unless Arky missed their extra point if they scored. Seems like the lucky plays and breaks have been on my side, lately. Had Nevada, had Ohio St, Alabama, Colts last week, to name a few. Keep pickin winners and the breaks will go your way.

 

[E.T.G.]

BC Kicking game is awful. Cost me last night too. I would have accepted the missed extra point and in turn, the missed 2pt conversion if BC had covered or atleast pushed but after they neglected to kick the field goal and didn't get the 4th down, I began rooting for NC State. I agree with the poster above, they got what they deserved. I remember seeing the BC coach telling his kids before the 4th down play "This is the game guys", he was right, it was the game. You just lost because your kicking game is inept! :spank: