Y26's Week #3 of the NFL


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Got another early start...
Week #1 was pretty damn good...gave a bit back in week #2, but thanks to JAX it wasn't much.

NFL YTD: 9-6, +2.69 units
Teasers: 0-2, -1 unit

There'll be more to come, for sure, over the remainder of the week...but here's what's in the books for this coming Sunday.

Jacksonville (+7) over Indianapolis (-105) for 2 units

Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay (-104) for 2 units

Arizona (-4.5) over St Louis (-101) for 2 units

Cincinnati/Pittsburgh over 42 (+103) for 2 units

I'll discuss these more over the remainder of the week, but here's the quick (late nite) version.

Is there a better 2-0 team right now than JAX? Maybe...but none that've beaten two better teams. And now they face Indy, their divisional rival. That's the 3 toughest games to start the season in the NFL...hands down.
Anyways, JAX defense is no surprise by now. They looked very good against Dallas, beating a public super bowl contender. And they looked flat out awesome beating Pittsburgh, the super bowl champs. And i know you'll question the JAX offense, and rightfully so...but take a look at the competition. Dallas and Pitt are two of the best defenses in the league...so there is obvious room for improvement, especially when facing lesser quality defenses. Fred Taylor looks healthy...and the O-Line was pretty damn good for most of those two games. Anyways, my point is that this isn't last year's Bears...JAX will score some points TY.
On the other side, we have Indy. Prolly missing Vinatieri, which could cost points when JAX defense stalls some Indy drives. Edgerrin is gone to AZ...so JAX can focus more on passing defense, while pinning their ears back and attacking Peyton. And, maybe most importantly, are the Colts defensive losses. Gone are Triplett and Thornton...and now Freeney's hurt. Might play still...but even so, it won't be at 100%. In any case, Indy gave up 21 pts to the Giants then 24 to the Texans. And that Houston game was very reminicent of the old Colts, where they jsut outscored you...at least until the playoffs came around, lol.
JAX lost both games to Indy LY, by 7 and 8 pts respectfully...but both were within the spreads. But last year, Indy was finally playing defense....and they had the threat of a running game. Regardless, JAX is 6-2 ATS in the L8 vs the Colts. And the under is 3-1 in JAX's L4 trips to Indy...which also demonstrates how the JAX defense keeps things close.
In any case, JAX may actually take this game outright...but i won't push my luck with them going on the road for the first time, after two straight brutal dogfights to begin the new season. More trends on this matchup to come though...

Panthers cost themselves last week. But i'm gonna ride them again here, for a couple reasons. First, Carolina has a good team. They'll turn this shit around and make a run sooner or later. Second, Tampa is not a good football team right now. In two games, they got 3 whole pts. 3 points. And now a shaky Simms gets to face another quality defense? Bad news...and wouldn't be surprised to see Gruden be forced into a QB change during or after this game...because TB will be lucky to have reached double digits in season points after this game is done. And this poor offense is affecting the defense. Did ya see all the yards they're giving up? Especially on the ground? Not the TB defense we're used to seeing. On the other side, hopefully Carolina finally gets Smith back. But even if they don't, this is one game they're not going to let get away.
Also, Panthers are 5-1 SU & ATS L6 against TB. More to come here too...

Cards are 4-1 ATS in L5 against the Rams. But everything about this game comes down to home field. This potentially high-powered offense of AZ's performs much better at home. Shit...they actually may even have a little home field advantage going now. And we all know that St Louis is not the team they are at home, when they're on the road...nowhere near it, as evidenced in SF last week. Definitely more info coming soon on this play...

Still looking at the side, but i love the over...which is 4-0 in the L4 of this series at Pitt. Carson Palmer will pick up where he left off, torching the Steelers secondary for some big plays. Live by the sword, die by the sword...with all those exciting blitz packages of Pitt. And Cincy, for their part, will be a welcome relief for Pitt...from that JAX defense. They'll be able to run the ball again. Big Ben won't be running a fever...and he'll have worked out some of the kinks, since before JAX he hadn't played a real game since LY. Not sure Pitt's offense will have enough success to pull out the W or not...but it'll definitely pick up from the first two weeks, and keep them in the game. Anyways, neither teamscores under 20 pts here...and Cincy could be looking at 30, with the right game plan. Waiting on a side here though...

Last and always least, i already got a teaser in the books too...

CHI (+3.5)
CAR (+3.5)
SEA (+3)
PHIL (+1/2)
1/2 unit to win 1.2

With more than a FG with Chicago and Carolina, those should be good. Giants have dropped their L3 in Seattle. And SF won't take out Philly SU.

GL this week. Still working on the card, always looking for more.:cheers:
Thx, Santa. If they happen to win outright...wow, what a start.

Waiting on you, Jump. not for the cincy/ptt over that i'm already on...but curious if you're gonna take your bengals.
I'm waiting to see if i can get 3, myself. But still wanna see youre take on this game, buddy.
added a MNF play

Atlanta/New Orleans over 44 (+102) for 2 units

Don't know how all the emotions will effect the outcome of the game, but you know they'll wanna put on a show.
The two totals between these two teams LY were 65 and 53...and this year the Saints got Reggie Bush, not to mention a better QB.
Should be fun.

Jump...waiting for your unbiased Cincy/Pitt opinion...
and, in honor of Tru, my fade play of the day...

Cleveland (+6) over Baltimore (+104) for 2 units

I love the Ravens TY...but so does everybody else this week. Gonna give the home dog a shot here, thinking Romeo will have his defense ready to play...and at least keep things close.
final two adds...at least until sun nite

NYJets/Buffalo over 35 (+102) for 2 units

Minnesota (+3.5) over Chicago (+100) for 2 units

GL all... &:spank: your book tomorrow
pretty good day

4-2-1 so far, plus the teaser hit....so up over 5 units on the day.

In the middle of a long day of yardwork, so just stopped by to make a play on the late game.

Denver/New England over 38.5 (+100) for 1 unit

Hope you all are doing well w/ your plays. Back sometime tonight...but for now, back to the lawnmower.
last one for the week...

Well, that sun nite addition blew. But still up over 4 units on Sunday.
Anyways, got the over on MNF played above for two units...and i'm gonna add the side as well. I'm a sucker for a home dog...

New Orleans (+4) over Atlanta (-102) for 1 unit

Gonna ride the emotional wave, and hope NO can keep it w/in a FG. But as long as the game goes over the total, it's all good.
GL on Monday:shake:
thx, BG:shake:

Way to kick ass in South Pacific Sports, bud. I owe you a few drinks or something, cuz i've been tailing here & there...and it's working out well.
Getting wasted in Austin...threw heavy on Vick getting over 57.5 yds rushing tonight.

:drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :wacka wacka: :drink: :drink: