xxDaJackaLxx
Speaker for the Dead
Alight CTG, I think we might have another gift from the Vegas gods on this one, but as usual "He that giveth, taketh away." So post your opinions please.
My leans for Week 9:
WAS -4 : DID NOT PLAY
NE -6 : DID NOT PLAY
PLAYED:
BUF +1.5 : 1.1 units to win 1 - WIN
BUF U43.5 : 1.1 units to win 1 - LOSS
JAX +4 : 2.5 units to win 2 - LOSS
DAL -3 : 3.25 units to win 2 - WIN
TEASED:
WAS +6 - WIN
NE +4 - WIN
DAL +7
All teased 10pts. 5.5 units to win 5 - WIN
and
JAX +9.5 - LOSS
DAL O40.5
Teased 6pts. 1.1 units to win 1 - LOSS
______________________________________________________________
Here is what I see with these lines:
WAS -4 @ NYJ - LEAN, no play
As JoePublic was clever enough to discover and post,
"Has anybody noticed what happens to teams the week after they play the Pats?
The last three teams that have played them, Cleveland, Dallas, and Miami all covered the next week.
Before that Cincy played NE then had a bye so I don't think you can count that one (though they came out of that bye and lost at KC), but the week before that it was Buffalo who won outright against the Jets.
That makes it 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU if I'm not mistaken with the two losses being SD in GB in that wild finish game and the Jets in Week Two going to Baltimore as almost a double digit dog and Baltimore letting 'em, very graciously, in the back door.
Psychologically this makes a lot of sense, but it's also something to look at going forward."
I like this trend to begin with and I think WAS is still gonna be very sour over the thrashing NE gave them when they play another, less dominating AFC East team on the road. Skins need to regroup in hurry and pull off this win to prove to themselves and the league that they deserve a shot at the playoffs.
NE -6 @ IND - LEAN, no play<O></O>
Potential AFC Championship in Week 9, sweet deal. As Joe Cornhole was saying during POI on MNF, and I've checked into a bit further, here is how these teams match up historically:
In 2001, NE thrashed IND at home in week 3, 44-13 and went on to win the Super Bowl against STL 20-17. At the end of the 2001 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive or defensive category, while IND was #2 in YPG and #2 in Pass YPG.
In 2003, NE beat IND in week 13 in IND 38-34, then again in the AFC playoffs 24-14, and NE went on to win the Super Bowl against CAR 32-29. At the end of the 2003 regular season, NE D was only #4 against Rush YPG and was not in the top 5 for any offensive category. IND was #3 in YPG and led the league in Pass YPG. IND D was also top 5 against Pass YPG.
In 2004, NE beat IND at home in week 1, 27-24, then again in the Div. playoffs, 20-3, and NE went on to win the Super Bowl against PHI 24-21. At the end of the 2004 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive or defensive category. IND was #2 in YPG and led the league in Pass YPG.
In 2005, IND beat NE on the road in week 9, 40-21. Both teams ended up losing a Div. playoff game. NE lost to DEN and IND lost to PIT. PIT ended up beating DEN and then won the SB. At the end of the 2005 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive category and was #2 against Pass YPG. IND was #3 YPG and #3 Pass YPG.
In 2006, IND beat NE on the road 27-20 in week 9, then again in that amazing AFC Championship comeback, 38-34. IND went on to beat my Bears by DD for the SB. At the end of the 2006 regular season, IND was #3 YPG and #2 Pass YPG. Their D was #2 against Pass YPG too. NE was only #5 against the Rush.
What does this mean to me? Well it seems that NE can win games and make it to the bowl even when they are not league leaders in any category. And even when IND is a league leader, NE still can come out victorious. The two years IND did beat NE (2005, 2006) IND was top 3 in Total Yards and top 2 in Pass Yards AND #2 against the pass in 2006.
Well, good news for IND backers. This year IND is #3 in Total YPG, #5 in Rush YPG, and their D is #4 against Total YPG and #1 against Pass YPG.
Better news, however, for NE backers. For the first time since Tom Brady has been NE QB, the Patriots are #1 in Total YPG, #1 in Pass YPG, and their D is #3 against Total YPG and #5 against Pass YPG. Also, this is the first year since Payton has been in the league that IND is NOT top 5 for Pass YPG. (A grain of salt: 1. season is only half over and this is likely to change. 2. Top 5 include Brady, Favre, Romo, and Palmer.) Regardless, I think we can all agree that the NFL has not seen a team like these NE Patriots in the last 6 years.
And for that same reason, its easy to forget that IND is its own wrecking ball of a squad. I just think NE's balls are a bit bigger this season and they are on a mission to dominate everybody. For a while there, many people thought DAL was the guaranteed NFC Champ and they would face NE (most likely) or IND in the Super Bowl. DAL was on fire, Romo was being called the next Favre, etc. Then they played NE and that perspective changed, at least for a good few. IND probably would have beat DAL too, but not by 21 and in DAL. (By the way, NE was only a 6pt favorite in that game too.)
Key Injuries
IND: Marvin Harrison is questionable with a knee injury as is CB Matt Giordano with a hamstring injury. The addition of Harrison to IND's repertoire will certainly help their chances here, so keeping an eye on that.
NE: RB Sammy Morris is doubtful with a chest injury. TE Benjamin Watson questionable with an ankle injury.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=statsHeaderRow vAlign=top colSpan=3>Betting Trends:
</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I see NE rolling like a boulder all the way through January for yet another Brady/Belichick ring.
DAL -3 @ PHI - 3.25 to win 2 - WIN
DAL ML 1.9 to win 1 - WIN<O></O>
IMO, this line is just soft. DAL is #2 in Total YPG and #3 PYPG. Mismatch that against PHI's 7th ranked overall and 15th against the pass D. Add to that the fact that PHI safety Brian Dawkins is doubtful for week 9 with a neck injury, safety Sean Considine is questionable with an ankle injury and Lito Sheppard, despite being probable to play, will be playing on a hurt knee, its starting to seem like Romo will have his way with the PHI secondary. I'm not saying PHI won't get their points in this game (looking at the over as well) but I don't see this one being decided by a field goal. Plus, Dallas is coming off a bye week from a 10pt victory over MIN. They have had plenty of time to prepare for a PHI team that, IMO, is very similar to MIN. I'm thinking Dallas by at least 7 and putting my money where my brain is.
BUF +1.5 v. CIN - 1.1 units to win 1 - WIN
This game is basicaly a coin flip and I think BUF will win outright. At first glance, neither team should face a lot of difficulty moving the ball. CIN's 5th ranked total offense, 5th ranked passing offense, and 6th ranked in avg score is facing BUF's 30th ranked D for total yards and 29th ranked for pass yards.
The catch is BUF is holding their opponent to an avg of only 13pts a game. The only thing I can deduce from that is they are miserable in the open field but clamp down in the redzone. (if anyone has redzone stats, feel free to throw them in here to support or refute) CIN on the other hand is allowing 30pts a game with their D being 31 in total yards and 28th against the pass and run.
I think the match-up here is BUF run v. CIN pass. CIN can't run for shit and BUF is throwing almost as few yards as they run (145 to 100). IMO, BUF wins that match-up. I think they will run all over CIN's D, wearing out that D line by start of 4th. BUF should be able to control the clock and momentum for most of the game. Hopefully that will keep Palmer and Ocho Cinco off the field as much as possible and prevent the big plays downfield. I expect one to go over the top for a probable 6. (Possible team prop for longest play? Not available on my book, but if you can find it, might be worth a look.)
This game depends on how much of the clock and momentum BUF is able to control. The last thing they want to do is get into a throwing contest with the Bungles. And since they are at home and on a roll, I play BUF and the under.
Couple trends for you:
BUF is 4-1 ATS in last 5
BUF is 3-2 SU in last 5, including beating BAL at home and a last minute loss to DAL on MNF, and NE.
BUF total has gone UNDER in 6 of last 8
CIN is 1-3-1 ATS in last 5
CIN is 1-4 SU in last 5, beating NYJ and losing to PIT, NE, KC and SEA
CIN is 1-3-1 in last 5 games on the road.
And as a contingency (what I consider to be a gift from Vegas), I am also considering laying heavy chalk on the following teaser. You know, just in case one of the above goes the other way through a game-ending FG...This is my biggest play of the week.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
My leans for Week 9:
WAS -4 : DID NOT PLAY
NE -6 : DID NOT PLAY
PLAYED:
BUF +1.5 : 1.1 units to win 1 - WIN
BUF U43.5 : 1.1 units to win 1 - LOSS
JAX +4 : 2.5 units to win 2 - LOSS
DAL -3 : 3.25 units to win 2 - WIN
TEASED:
WAS +6 - WIN
NE +4 - WIN
DAL +7
All teased 10pts. 5.5 units to win 5 - WIN
and
JAX +9.5 - LOSS
DAL O40.5
Teased 6pts. 1.1 units to win 1 - LOSS
______________________________________________________________
Here is what I see with these lines:
WAS -4 @ NYJ - LEAN, no play
As JoePublic was clever enough to discover and post,
"Has anybody noticed what happens to teams the week after they play the Pats?
The last three teams that have played them, Cleveland, Dallas, and Miami all covered the next week.
Before that Cincy played NE then had a bye so I don't think you can count that one (though they came out of that bye and lost at KC), but the week before that it was Buffalo who won outright against the Jets.
That makes it 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU if I'm not mistaken with the two losses being SD in GB in that wild finish game and the Jets in Week Two going to Baltimore as almost a double digit dog and Baltimore letting 'em, very graciously, in the back door.
Psychologically this makes a lot of sense, but it's also something to look at going forward."
I like this trend to begin with and I think WAS is still gonna be very sour over the thrashing NE gave them when they play another, less dominating AFC East team on the road. Skins need to regroup in hurry and pull off this win to prove to themselves and the league that they deserve a shot at the playoffs.
NE -6 @ IND - LEAN, no play<O></O>
Potential AFC Championship in Week 9, sweet deal. As Joe Cornhole was saying during POI on MNF, and I've checked into a bit further, here is how these teams match up historically:
In 2001, NE thrashed IND at home in week 3, 44-13 and went on to win the Super Bowl against STL 20-17. At the end of the 2001 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive or defensive category, while IND was #2 in YPG and #2 in Pass YPG.
In 2003, NE beat IND in week 13 in IND 38-34, then again in the AFC playoffs 24-14, and NE went on to win the Super Bowl against CAR 32-29. At the end of the 2003 regular season, NE D was only #4 against Rush YPG and was not in the top 5 for any offensive category. IND was #3 in YPG and led the league in Pass YPG. IND D was also top 5 against Pass YPG.
In 2004, NE beat IND at home in week 1, 27-24, then again in the Div. playoffs, 20-3, and NE went on to win the Super Bowl against PHI 24-21. At the end of the 2004 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive or defensive category. IND was #2 in YPG and led the league in Pass YPG.
In 2005, IND beat NE on the road in week 9, 40-21. Both teams ended up losing a Div. playoff game. NE lost to DEN and IND lost to PIT. PIT ended up beating DEN and then won the SB. At the end of the 2005 regular season, NE was not in the top 5 for any offensive category and was #2 against Pass YPG. IND was #3 YPG and #3 Pass YPG.
In 2006, IND beat NE on the road 27-20 in week 9, then again in that amazing AFC Championship comeback, 38-34. IND went on to beat my Bears by DD for the SB. At the end of the 2006 regular season, IND was #3 YPG and #2 Pass YPG. Their D was #2 against Pass YPG too. NE was only #5 against the Rush.
What does this mean to me? Well it seems that NE can win games and make it to the bowl even when they are not league leaders in any category. And even when IND is a league leader, NE still can come out victorious. The two years IND did beat NE (2005, 2006) IND was top 3 in Total Yards and top 2 in Pass Yards AND #2 against the pass in 2006.
Well, good news for IND backers. This year IND is #3 in Total YPG, #5 in Rush YPG, and their D is #4 against Total YPG and #1 against Pass YPG.
Better news, however, for NE backers. For the first time since Tom Brady has been NE QB, the Patriots are #1 in Total YPG, #1 in Pass YPG, and their D is #3 against Total YPG and #5 against Pass YPG. Also, this is the first year since Payton has been in the league that IND is NOT top 5 for Pass YPG. (A grain of salt: 1. season is only half over and this is likely to change. 2. Top 5 include Brady, Favre, Romo, and Palmer.) Regardless, I think we can all agree that the NFL has not seen a team like these NE Patriots in the last 6 years.
And for that same reason, its easy to forget that IND is its own wrecking ball of a squad. I just think NE's balls are a bit bigger this season and they are on a mission to dominate everybody. For a while there, many people thought DAL was the guaranteed NFC Champ and they would face NE (most likely) or IND in the Super Bowl. DAL was on fire, Romo was being called the next Favre, etc. Then they played NE and that perspective changed, at least for a good few. IND probably would have beat DAL too, but not by 21 and in DAL. (By the way, NE was only a 6pt favorite in that game too.)
Key Injuries
IND: Marvin Harrison is questionable with a knee injury as is CB Matt Giordano with a hamstring injury. The addition of Harrison to IND's repertoire will certainly help their chances here, so keeping an eye on that.
NE: RB Sammy Morris is doubtful with a chest injury. TE Benjamin Watson questionable with an ankle injury.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=statsHeaderRow vAlign=top colSpan=3>Betting Trends:
</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I see NE rolling like a boulder all the way through January for yet another Brady/Belichick ring.
DAL -3 @ PHI - 3.25 to win 2 - WIN
DAL ML 1.9 to win 1 - WIN<O></O>
IMO, this line is just soft. DAL is #2 in Total YPG and #3 PYPG. Mismatch that against PHI's 7th ranked overall and 15th against the pass D. Add to that the fact that PHI safety Brian Dawkins is doubtful for week 9 with a neck injury, safety Sean Considine is questionable with an ankle injury and Lito Sheppard, despite being probable to play, will be playing on a hurt knee, its starting to seem like Romo will have his way with the PHI secondary. I'm not saying PHI won't get their points in this game (looking at the over as well) but I don't see this one being decided by a field goal. Plus, Dallas is coming off a bye week from a 10pt victory over MIN. They have had plenty of time to prepare for a PHI team that, IMO, is very similar to MIN. I'm thinking Dallas by at least 7 and putting my money where my brain is.
BUF +1.5 v. CIN - 1.1 units to win 1 - WIN
This game is basicaly a coin flip and I think BUF will win outright. At first glance, neither team should face a lot of difficulty moving the ball. CIN's 5th ranked total offense, 5th ranked passing offense, and 6th ranked in avg score is facing BUF's 30th ranked D for total yards and 29th ranked for pass yards.
The catch is BUF is holding their opponent to an avg of only 13pts a game. The only thing I can deduce from that is they are miserable in the open field but clamp down in the redzone. (if anyone has redzone stats, feel free to throw them in here to support or refute) CIN on the other hand is allowing 30pts a game with their D being 31 in total yards and 28th against the pass and run.
I think the match-up here is BUF run v. CIN pass. CIN can't run for shit and BUF is throwing almost as few yards as they run (145 to 100). IMO, BUF wins that match-up. I think they will run all over CIN's D, wearing out that D line by start of 4th. BUF should be able to control the clock and momentum for most of the game. Hopefully that will keep Palmer and Ocho Cinco off the field as much as possible and prevent the big plays downfield. I expect one to go over the top for a probable 6. (Possible team prop for longest play? Not available on my book, but if you can find it, might be worth a look.)
This game depends on how much of the clock and momentum BUF is able to control. The last thing they want to do is get into a throwing contest with the Bungles. And since they are at home and on a roll, I play BUF and the under.
Couple trends for you:
BUF is 4-1 ATS in last 5
BUF is 3-2 SU in last 5, including beating BAL at home and a last minute loss to DAL on MNF, and NE.
BUF total has gone UNDER in 6 of last 8
CIN is 1-3-1 ATS in last 5
CIN is 1-4 SU in last 5, beating NYJ and losing to PIT, NE, KC and SEA
CIN is 1-3-1 in last 5 games on the road.
And as a contingency (what I consider to be a gift from Vegas), I am also considering laying heavy chalk on the following teaser. You know, just in case one of the above goes the other way through a game-ending FG...This is my biggest play of the week.
Happy Hunting My Friends,
xxDaJackalxx
xxDaJackalxx
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Last edited:
