WVU/Colorado Discussion...

I think different from the game tonight in the sense that you're getting WVU at a very cheap price here off their crushing defeat at ECU as 8 pt faves. Buy low, sell high. K-State was priced high tonight at 2-0 and Louisville low, considering their only public showing this year was a thrashing against lowly Kentucky.

WVU - the pts here...
 
Good points, under 7 was a no-no for me to pick KSU, now short line on the "obviously" better team coming off loss. Just a lean now, will finalize pick tomorrow, line move up may lead me to reconsider, but -3 may be Buffs play
 
mid week teams traveling this yr since school started in Sept:

SC-10 @ Vandy, Outright loss
Navy +6.5 @ Ball St, Lost and didn't Cover
KU +4.5 @ USF, Lost but Covered
UNC +5.5 @ RU, Outright Win
Wazzu +7 @ Baylor, Lost and didn't Cover
KST -5.5 @ LVille, Outright Loss


So far the visiting team is 2-4 ATS, favorites are 0-2 ATS
 
I don't read too much into trends, especially when the team in question here has had a long time to mull about their disappointing loss. I'm sure that they're ready to come out and kick some ass on national television.
 
Cherry Picker said:
I don't read too much into trends, especially when the team in question here has had a long time to mull about their disappointing loss. I'm sure that they're ready to come out and kick some ass on national television.
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Its not so much the trend I care about, I think mid-week travel has an affect on teams, road teams do much worse.
 
Pucks said:
How good is Colorado's rush defense?
Click to expand...

I think the strength of the Colorado defense is their rush defense. For the most part, they held a running team like CSU in check although Gartrell Johnson was having some success on the ground
 
E.T.G. said:
I think the strength of the Colorado defense is their rush defense. For the most part, they held a running team like CSU in check although Gartrell Johnson was having some success on the ground
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agree...think it's the strength of the team. defense was kind of banged up in the spring, but return 8 of 11 including a very experienced and tough defensive line that was 31 last year agaisnt the run as a younger group. kept that the focus as they held csu to 2.7 ypc and a shitty e wash team to 2.1. johnson did have success, as etg mentioned, but he's a different style back than what wvu brings. lots of things i've read say that dizon is a huge loss to this defense, but i strongly disagree. the experience and leadership won't be missed, because experienced smart and jones have stepped right in, and they have plenty of talent and depth with mohler, sipili, burton, and beatty that will replace dizon and IMPROVE the run defense in my estimation. being beat up in the spring caused some cohesion problems with this defense as an entire unit, but i expect them to come together for their best game of the year so far tonight. crowd should be absolutely rockin too; most anticipated game in a while shown by record attendance in the spring...gl fellas
 
I've seen nothing from WVA this year that indicates that they can cover this game. A lackluster win vs Villanova and a blowout loss to East Carolina. Not to say they didn't fix things during the bye week and maybe we'll see the Mountaineer team that took down OU in January; they still have Pat White and pretty much the entire OL. Really think they miss Reynaud on the outside though...a much bigger loss than Slaton when you consider the replacements.

I think CU is primed tonite and QB Hawkins will have a lot of success throwing against this secondary.
 
Colorado seems to have problems only with teams that has quartbacks who can throw very well
 
Colorado struggled against Eastern Washington, anyone have any background info on this school?
 
WVA should have an advange with overall team speed. If WVA doesnt turn the ball over and give the short field to CU I think they can cover. Those were key elements in the CU win over E. Washington. Colorado needed a pick six and a TD drive that started on the EWU 4 while giving up TD drives of 81 and 83 yards.

WVA has big play potential on offense, CU doesn't.
 
Texas Tech opened up against EWU. We had 5 turnovers and still won by 25 points, but they had a great offense. Their QB will be drafted. EWU could beat a lot of division 1 teams without a doubt.
 
Colorado returns 15 starters from their 2007 squad, including six on offense and eight on defense.
West Virginia returns 13 starters from 2007, including eight on offense but just four on defense.

I really like the Over but this trend is preventing me from doing so currently... Colorado UNDER is 6-1 in the past Colorado home games in Sept
 
ynnhoj316 said:
Texas Tech opened up against EWU. We had 5 turnovers and still won by 25 points, but they had a great offense. Their QB will be drafted. EWU could beat a lot of division 1 teams without a doubt.
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agree...i said "shitty" in an earlier post just because i didn't think you could really hold much weight to the 2.1 ypc stat. e wash was picked to be 1st or 2nd in the big sky by most. their offense is the type that colorado struggles with...and they had a lot of confidence because of their experience at the skills positions and because colorado lost to a big sky opponent a few years back. i think they could score on most teams. matt nichols is a very good qb who has elevated his play against better competition

i think they did play them pretty evenly and were able to put together some long drives. that being said, col fumbled in their own territory early, and hawkins threw a pick-6 to get them behind. they pretty much shut eastern washington down from scoring from the 2nd half of the second quarter on, (only a 52 yard fg from e wash for the rest of the game). you're supposed to put away mediocre teams, i know this, but they were also in a really flat spot coming off a rivalry game with wvu on deck...tough to be focused.

i'm sure there's some 1AA people that can shed some more light on e wash...but that's just my opinion from reading about the game...don't really follow big sky closely but i know a little about the teams.
 
Cherry Picker said:
ddk, with all due respect, that over/under trend is meaningless.
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:shake: I usually dont care much either for trends, No idea why today. Eastern Wa score might be misleading, Cody Hawkins also threw an INT that went all the way back for a TD.
 
Agreed, broadway. I wouldn't place to much emphasis on that narrow win against EWU. Prototypical "sandwich" spot coming off a rivalry game with ranked WVU on deck. Hard to get up for a spot in between against a 1-AA team, and a very good 1-AA at that...
 
line now down to 2.5 if anyone was wondering and 85% are on WVU, leaning stronger and stronger towards the buffs
 
Lean CU

If you take WVU you are laying chalk with a team adjusting to a new offense (why new coaches come in and change something that was so successful is beyond me), playing mid-week, and on top of that 2 time-zones away.

In addition, dogs on national TV weekday games have done very well ATS historically.
 
once again, ddk, that's meaningless. Those percentages mean ZILCH, NADA, NOTHING. Just cap the game, those percentages are just their to mindfuck you. There's absolutely no correlation between line movement and percentages being an indicator of who is going to cover a game.
 
boredlife - they're two zones west, not east. They actually receive time going west, not lose it. The time zone thing is only a real issue when teams have to travel east, especially when the game is slated for an early start time. Think California going into Maryland last weekend.
 
Cherry Picker said:
once again, ddk, that's meaningless. Those percentages mean ZILCH, NADA, NOTHING. Just cap the game, those percentages are just their to mindfuck you. There's absolutely no correlation between line movement and percentages being an indicator of who is going to cover a game.
Click to expand...

:shake:
 
boredlife said:
Lean CU

If you take WVU you are laying chalk with a team adjusting to a new offense (why new coaches come in and change something that was so successful is beyond me), playing mid-week, and on top of that 2 time-zones away.

In addition, dogs on national TV weekday games have done very well ATS historically.
Click to expand...



what makes this particularly bad is they promoted the HC from within ... he knew exactly how potent that offense was.
 
Dan Hawkins vs Bill Stewart?

Does Stewart have the ability to gt his team back on the right track after the ass beating at ECU? Everyone knows hes there just to keep the seat warm for a few years - he was a convenient hire - loyal, yada yada yada, The Buffs will move the ball - WVU defense has never been their strong point anyways..Now they have to travel to take on a Big 12 team whose coach is tremendous when having extra time to prepare...Hawkins ate teams alive at Boise with extra prep time..Yes, Pat White and Devine will get some yards - hell, they'l probably score at least 21 points...My take is that Colo will score at least 28..

Colo +3
Colo ML
 
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
331.gif
</TD><TD>
38.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>11-19</TD><TD>8-17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>350</TD><TD>351</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>303</TD><TD>261</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>32-51</TD><TD>28-39</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>5.9</TD><TD>6.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>90</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>33</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>2.1</TD><TD>2.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>7-69</TD><TD>10-70</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>29:20</TD><TD>30:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
277.gif
</TD><TD>
151.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>3-12</TD><TD>8-16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>1-2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>251</TD><TD>386</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>72</TD><TD>243</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>11-18</TD><TD>23-29</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>8.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>179</TD><TD>143</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>36</TD><TD>42</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>3.4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-36</TD><TD>9-60</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>24:19</TD><TD>35:41</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
horses said:
I've seen nothing from WVA this year that indicates that they can cover this game. A lackluster win vs Villanova and a blowout loss to East Carolina. Not to say they didn't fix things during the bye week and maybe we'll see the Mountaineer team that took down OU in January; they still have Pat White and pretty much the entire OL. Really think they miss Reynaud on the outside though...a much bigger loss than Slaton when you consider the replacements.

I think CU is primed tonite and QB Hawkins will have a lot of success throwing against this secondary.
Click to expand...

great post. i agree completely.
 
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