Here is a good writeup from a Cowboy blog, he really thinks the game comes down to how healthy Anthony Henry actually is. By Rafael Vela from theboysblog.com.
10-1 vs. 10-1. Think the NFL Network is happy?
When the Packers Have the Ball
Brett Favre took a sip from the fountain of youth this offseason. Or maybe having more talent around him has calmed him and curbed the bad decision machine we’ve seen in recent years.
The Packers have undergone a conversion in the past few years. Under Mike Sherman they had one of the best, most experienced offensive lines in the game and used Ahman Green to wear opponents out. The line was ripped up by age and free agency — guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera both left after ‘04.
The offensive overhaul began last year when the Packers force fed young guards Jason Spitz and Darren Colledge into the lineup, with veteran tackles Kyle Clifton and Mark Tauscher. The kids integrated themselves quickly and shored up the Packers protection.
Green Bay also rebuilt the receiving corps on the fly, teaming youngsters Greg Jennings and James Jones with veteran standout Donald Driver. Driver has thrived with quality help, posting over 800 yards so far. The Packers struggled badly early in the year but have jump-started their running game the past month, with Ryan Grant posting a 4.7 yard average, with teams so concerned with the Packers passing attack.
Green Bay alternates spread formations with four and five receiver sets with two tight end sets; they have a diamond-like formation, with the fullback and tight end each lining up behind each tackle with Grant as the lone back. The Packers have balance and try to break cutback runs off this package, as Grant has the quickness to break runs outside to the backside should an opponent over-pursue.
Dallas will likely play pass first, using a lot of the 3-3-5 package they unveiled against the Jets. They’ll have to tackle well, as the Packers like to run lots of flanker screens and smoke routes.
We’ll also see if the Cowboys will pounce on the Packers inside routes; Green Bay runs slants more than any other team in the game. Teams have been wary of overplaying these routes as the Packers’ WRs have the speed to get upfield if a corner is cheating inside. Look for Terence Newman to lock on to Driver, in an attempt to take Favre’s favorite option away.
When Dallas Has the Ball
The Cowboys offense has been the most potent this side of New England, but they’re facing a quality defense this week. The Packers have been a top ten scoring defense all year and rank 6th right now.
That’s a huge step up from a unit that ranked 20th in ‘05 and 25th in ‘06 in scoring. Green Bay’s turnaround there began with two key veteran signings. Green Bay paired CB Charles Woodson with Al Harris and got immediate quality corner play. The Packers also stole DT Ryan Pickett from the Rams. Pickett anchors the Pack’s run defense. The Packers also made a key philosophical adjustment, taking DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila off the field on run downs in favor of the much bigger Cullen Jenkins. KGB is a feared rusher, but teams were running him over with running plays.
Green Bay also made the most of their top ten pick, adding A.J. Hawk to a linebacking corps that already sports MLB Nick Barnett. The Packers have improved significantly at every level the past couple of years and now are a top level defense.
Dallas is also a pass first team and the key matchup will be keeping 11 sack LE Aaron Kampman under control. The Packers don’t blitz much and Tony Romo will have time to get the ball downfield if his protection holds.
Green Bay plays a lot of man coverage and that will have Terrell Owens and Jason Witten smiling. Dallas loves to send their tight end up the field and will try to do so again tomorrow. The Packers are strong overall but give up a lot of yards on throwing plays.
I would not be surprised if the Cowboys give Green Bay some of their medicine, spreading the field early to throw and then hammering with the Jones/Barber duo later.
Overall:
Fasten your chinstraps. This should be a wild, open game. And I’m not at all certain Dallas will win it. The game will come down to matchups and in my opinion everything rides on Anthony Henry’s ankle. The Packers are the team most able to attack Dallas the same way that New England did.
The Cowboys missed Henry badly in that game, as the Pats abused Nate Jones over and over. Henry has played lately but does not looked fully healthy.
I’m going to offer a qualified return. A sound Henry will see a four point Dallas win. If he’s gimpy, I’m giving it to the Pack by a point.
