I have over analyzed this game as usual pretty much all week at the expense of work, family, and anything other than breathing. It’s the same every year regardless of the records of each team heading into the game. The stakes are always high due to the unique nature of the game but even higher this year given both teams are undefeated and Texas could move to #1 with a victory. Keep in mind this is a program that has been wandering the desert for more than a decade since the 2009 season. The fan base has PTSD from false promises and all around underperformance under Strong, Herman and even in Sark’s first two years. We have had this season circled for a while now as the year it could all finally come together - talent, depth and experience on the OL and DL is the nucleus of any elite CFB team. Texas has that and everyone saw it against Bama. Ewers with a year under his belt looks to be more comfortable in Sark’s system which is not easy to pick up.
Other than Ohio State, Texas has probably the deepest WR corps and we haven’t even seen Neyor (Wyo transfer, tore ACL last year) or much of freshman stud Johntay Cook yet. Sark has kept a tight rotation of Worthy, Whittington, and Mitchell along with Sanders at TE (he’s playing on Sat). Who do you double cover? If the Sooners want to bracket Worthy, Mitchell will have a big game and vice versa. Landing AD in the portal from the Dawgs has been massive. But the dude that makes things go is Sanders. Having an elite pass catching TE makes a defense cover every portion of the field.
The main weakness Texas can and should exploit is a weaker interior Sooner OL. And this is a fact Sooner fans are bemoaning on their own boards. Their tackles are very good. Gabriel’s numbers in between the hashes are ridiculous. They play up tempo and know where the ball is going. As long as he isn’t pressured, all goes well. I just don’t see OU being able to keep a clean pocket without a strong running game. You usually know who the OU RB is heading into the game and the fact you don’t says something. it’s been a tough slog getting the running game going this season against suspect competition. Cincy has a good DL. That’s about it.
All of the damage has been through the air and other than a few coverage busts and dead brained deep balls Texas has allowed in each game, they have clamped down on the run and pass pretty damn well, esp in the red zone.
But we also haven’t faced many good QBs. Milroe has huge upside but that was a lot to ask in such a hyped up game and his nerves showed. Texas got lucky last week when Daniels opted to sit out after a pre-game warm up. I was impressed with Wyoming’s QBs and their overall game plan and have been tailing them ever since. That’s an experienced, tough team of grown ass men. Both QBs could sling it on the boundary and play keep away. Texas finally pulled ahead in the 4th in what was otherwise a very close game and a post-Bama hangover was inevitable.
Then Texas absolutely destroyed Baylor in all phases of the game except special teams where we put three balls on the turf, recovering one. Those two turnovers set Baylor up for their only points of the game - two FGs. Baylor would have gladly tapped out at half time. Total asskicking and they deserved every second of it.
Texas piled up 300+ rushing and passing against Kansas in a game where nothing quite looked in sync until late then you check the box score and it looked like a bloodbath. Completely opposite of last year where the Horns started strong and faded late, losing a bunch of one score games; this season is the total opposite. In game adjustments have been better (especially defensive) and I never have worried about whether we were going to lose a game this year. Even on the road at Bama. And the reason is the OL and DL. By the 4th Q most opponents are just tired of dealing with these dudes. Ewers has taken care of the ball, done slightly better in deep shots (still not his strength) but he is making hay in the intermediate passing game with a lot of ridiculous timing routes on the boundary and up the middle (see Sanders’ one armed grab last week that went for 50).
The Horns have not faced an up tempo team that can play fast and spread the ball around. But this defense erases one sided teams. Texas will happily rush four and drop a bunch of dudes in coverage. Squat two safeties deep where Gabriel does his damage and as soon as things get off schedule for him his accuracy and conversions plummet. And if he can hit those passes and lead his team to victory then props to him - that’s a good QB.
There are always are surprises in this game, usually with special teams and whoever gets a big break there can turn that into confidence in other phases - Shipley’s kick return for TD in 2008 turned around a 14-3 deficit and Texas never looked back.
OU has owned this series of late in the Stoops and Riley years. Venables got pantsed last year and everyone knew it going in once Gabriel wasn’t playing. Sark called off the dogs but that game easily could have hit the 60’s. Franklin would have faked a knee and scored another TD…
OU has improved immensely in all phases. But they haven’t faced a real defense yet and I just don’t think Gabriel will find easy passing lanes where he likes to throw the ball. And they don’t have a running game to fall back on.
I’m on Texas -6 and feel pretty good about any number up to 9. The line movement down to 5 has me nervous but not as much as the kids in that tunnel, which always smells like vomit from the freshmen who make that run for the first time.
This is one of the greatest games in college football and nobody has a clue what will happen. Texas has played better competition and has more ways to hurt OU than the Sooners can hurt Texas.
That is way too many words than I intended on typing. If you’ve made it this far, buckle up and enjoy! Nothing would surprise me.
But I think I think I have an idea on how this should play out…