WorldCup

I believe in Columbias offense power to get the win and advance to knock-out round. Senegal also capable to score so I think we will see a 2-1 or 3-1 win for COL, when Senegals opens up at 1-2 to allow counterattacks for COL. Really confident so..

COL-SEN over 2,5 and BTS +175 (2 units)
COL-SEN: COL -124 (3,72 units to win 3 units)
COL-SEN: AHC (-1) COL +140 (3 units)
COL-SEN: HC (-1): COL +205 (1 unit)
COL to score in both halves: (1unit)
COL-SEN over 2,5 +100 (1 unit)
COL-SEN: BTS -110 (1,1 units to win 1 unit)
 
13-29-3 -10.88 units

16 games to reach the black figures. Thinking about bet the draw in 5 or 6 games. Two would give a small profit.
 
1.png
Results from last WC 2014. Expect similar results this time. Bookies give +185 for draw between URU and POR, so they seem to expect it too.

Especially games with two teams of same level tend to go into ET. So today

ARG-FRA X +210 2 units
URU-POR X +185 2 units

Wait, how it works. I'm fine with one win to climb up. Maybe later URU to advance -105 but still not sure. Defense wins championschips, you say in US and URU defense yet the best I've seen.
 
For fun
2 of 5 System with FRA-ARG (+200), URU-POR (+180), KRO-DEN (+220), SWE-SUI (+220), KOL-ENG (+220) means ten 2-game-Parlays for each 0.25 units. Risking 2,5 units.
If all win, +20 units, with three ca. +2,5 - + 3 units
 
Ok, played the wrong games going into extratime, anyway.
13-31-3 -14,88

I pay more than 10 units to see Brazil not winning in regular time.

BRA-MEX: BRA - 193 10 units to win 5,2 units
BRA-MEX (AHC -1): BRA -125: 3,75 units to win 3 units (One-goal win as a push)
BRA/BEL ML parlay +109 2 units to win 2,18 units
BRA/BEL (AHC -1) parlay +188 2 units to win 3,76 unit

Last bets, if Mexican will get a result.
 
Last edited:
Have won a 10 unit risk-free livebet at my bookie. Try to put it at BEL -1 shortly after kickoff for ca. +110. Would mean to win 11 units and get cashback in case of loss. Brazil looks good. Still confident in Brazil to score the 1-0, but MEX always dangerous with counterattacks.
 
Still in the game.
15-31-3 -6.68 units
Three open bets and one risk-free live bet available. Have to take it for a WC-match. As BEL win is already in parlays, mabe over.
 
17-31-3 -2,9 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 18-31-3 +16,2 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra
 
See SWE and SUI as teams of equal strength. Think both find a way to score and to advance I have to take the better number:

SWE to advance +114 (1 unit)
SWE-SUI BTS + 107 (1 unit)
 
18-32-3 -2,76 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 19-32-3 +16,34 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra

Think these odds are value with Kane, Falcao, et al.

COL-ENG BTS +119 (1 unit)
COL-ENG over 2,5 +170 (1unit)
 
20-33-3 -2,51 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 21-33-3 +16,59 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra
 
20-34-3 -3,51 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 21-34-3 +15,59 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra

URU to advance +170
URU-FRA under 1,5 +140
URU_FRA X +220
1 unit each

Simply play the best defense. France impressive against ARG, but URU with better squad and first three games of FRA not so good.
 
Unfortunately not!

20-37-3 -6,51 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 21-37-3 +12,59 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra .

Still with plus money due to the free bet. Completely wrong on URU, never able to cope with Cavani missing.

Tunesia and Japan scored twice against Belgium. Panama and England with resting Kane scored not. So given the fact, that Brazilian offense is better than the Japanese or English (without Kane) I expect Brazil to score. Belgium with 12 goals in four games, defensive quality of opponent doesn't matter for me, because 12 goals are 12 goals. (Brazil scored "only" seven goals against stronger opponents).

So I think we'll see goals because of two strong offenses against at least one shaky defense.

BRA-BEL BTS -145 (2,9 units to win 1 unit)
BRA TT over 1,5 +102 (0,5 units)
BEL TT over 1,5 +185 (0,5 units)


1-1 gives at least a push and whoever scores the 2-1 in regular time gives me a profit. Rooting for Belgium but not confident enough to bet it. Good luck to all.
 
Of course should mean 2,9 units to win 2 units

BEL TT won so:
21-37-3 -5,59 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 22-37-3 +13,51 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra .

Two open bets...
 
22-38-3 -4,09 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 23-38-3 +15,01 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra .
 
I pay to see France or Belgium not to score a goal.

FRA-BEL BTS -135 10 units to win 7,5 units
BEL to advance + 104 2 units to win 2,08 units
FRA-BEL X Boost bet at bookie for +350: 2 units to win 7 units

Belgium in my opinion the more complete team. Offensive potential for both and root for BEL to advance in an extra time win.

Happy with 1-1!! 2-1 BEL or 2-1 FRA still gives a profit as long as both teams net it in.

GL to all.
 
22-41-3 -18,09 units
--------------------
inkl. freebet 23-41-3 +1,01 units wouldn't have played the over with own money, so count it extra .

I have to admit, that I have underestimated France defense so far. They're really strong, nothing to see from belgium offense, thanks to close some gaps in midfield. Speed of Hazard and de Bruyne was useless, when Giroud as first defender is waiting deep in the own half.

Got another freebet at my bookie, so still a chance to leave without a loss.

Can't read the games obviously, so hoping for goals and as yesterday I think both offenses have the power to score.

So CRO-ENG BTS +128 2 units to win 2,56 units.

Will place the 10 unit freebet on the draw for ca. +200 shortly after kickoff. +20 units if it wins.

In case of a loss I will take a 1 unit loss after all and watch the final without betting, looking forward to NFL season.

Bad read on some games, will evaluate bets and mistakes if I have time.
Enjoyed sharing thoughts with you and hope for a better result with NFL betting.
 
23-41-3 -15,53 units
--------------------
inkl. two freebets 23-42-3 +3,57 units

BEL-ENG over 2,5 -154: 3,08 units to win 2 units
BEL-ENG over 3,5 +160: 1 unit to win 1,60 units

Historic trend and both teams able to score.
 
Time to give FRA credits they deserve. CRO tired with three OT, so I think FRA will get it done in regular time.

FRA ML +115 3 units to win 3,45 units
FRA (AHC -1) +250 2 units to win 5 units (one-goal win as a push)

Good luck to all!
 
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