Futures MLB World Series Winner Odds: Let's Sail with the Mariners
World Series Odds (per Bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers +275
Philadelphia Phillies +650
Milwaukee Brewers +750
Detroit Tigers +900
Toronto Blue Jays +900
San Diego Padres +1100
Seattle Mariners +1100
Houston Astros +1200
New York Yankees +1200
Listening to History
History tells us that it is extremely unlikely for the Dodgers to repeat as World Series champions.
The last team to win consecutive World Series titles was the Yankees back in the year 2000.
It's not like there weren't teams that were great in consecutive seasons.
But — and this speaks to why I detest favorites in futures betting — so much has to go right for even the best team ever to win a title. This is especially true in a variance-heavy sport where any pitcher's FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) can diverge greatly from his ERA and where a tremendous disparity can exist between a batter's slugging rate and his expected slugging rate.
Stated differently, a team can have the batters who do the best job of making good contact and the pitchers who do the best job of throwing quality pitches, but, as this sample of metrics indicates, what is truly a good performance frequently doesn't translate to what actually happens.
To expect the same team to have enough good fortune to beat out all of the opposing contenders in consecutive seasons is ludicrous.
For variance reasons alone, the significance of which is formulated in terms of the tendency for champions to fail to repeat, we have to look elsewhere.
But, also in terms of history, I find it so odd that a Dave Roberts-managed team is being expected by so many bettors to win a consecutive title.
This is a manager of whom it was commonly asked whether he could lead a team to a title. He's had many great Dodgers teams over the years and has so often come up short in the postseason. I don't get why we are supposed to forget that this is Dave Roberts who we're talking about.
The Dodgers' Bullpen
Now, the counter to my Dave Roberts quip is that the Dodgers have amazing MVP-caliber talent this year.
But they are also seriously flawed. They are flawed enough to have endured a 33-game span in which they failed to exceed twelve victories.
Based on past years in which they experienced such a prolonged slump, we can't expect them to win the title.
Their primary flaw is with their pitching.
While they have very solid starters, those starters don't last long enough.
Consequently, they have to depend heavily on a bullpen that isn't good enough.
This bullpen leads the MLB in innings pitched with 528. It's telling that the lowly White Sox are second with 504.1 bullpen innings pitched and the Rockies third with 486.1 bullpen inings pitched.
In terms of ERA, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 20th.
The Dodgers simply fail to trot out enough good pitching.
Ruling Out Other Candidates
So, don't follow the masses by investing in the Dodgers.
But here are other relatively favored teams to avoid: one is the Phillies, who do have great starters but also have one of baseball's worst bullpens, ranking 24th in ERA.
Also avoid the Tigers, who lack enough quality starting pitching after Tarik Skubal. Their second-best starter is Casey Mize with a 3.63 ERA. Their other starters suffer an ERA of 4.51 or worse.
Their bullpen is also insufficient, ranking 17th in ERA. Tommy Kahnle was supposed to be a good addition, but he has declined massively in his first year as a Tiger. His ERA is 5.10.
Also avoid Toronto, which lacks enough good pitching in general, as evident in its ranking 21st in ERA.
The Yankees aren't much better. They take a step back relative to last year without Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole.
What About the Brewers, Astros, and Padres?
Milwaukee doesn't have betting value right now, because it is currently in peak form. You want to catch a team on a losing streak in order to maximize betting value.
But no matter what, the Brewers aren't worth investing in. Neither are the Astros and Padres.
The reason is the same for all three: they lack sufficient power in their respective lineups. All three of those teams rank in the bottom half in home runs per game.
Statistically speaking, home run-hitting ability takes on extra significance in the postseason.
In the playoffs, games are lower-scoring because the pitching is better. A home run, especially in a lower-scoring game, easily makes a decisive difference.
It is also, as common sense dictates, generally the case that teams that hit more home runs than their opponent are statistically likelier to win.
Run-scoring and, ultimately, winning will be too difficult for these teams in postseason baseball.
My Pick
Seattle has everything you want in a champ, and it all comes at a nice price.
Before the season, ESPN ranked Seattle's starting rotation as the best in baseball. It is well-stocked with proven guys, including Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
While injuries have caused those two players to struggle at times, they have plenty of time to find their form.
There's also Luis Castillo, who has the 26th-best ERA, and Bryan Woo, who has the 16th-best ERA.
The bullpen, moreover, is a good one, ranking ninth. It is anchored by just the man you want to close out games, Andres Munoz with his 1.31 ERA.
Their lineup features guys like Julio Rodriguez, who is a historically good young player now rounding into form, Randy Arozarena, who is known to love the big stage, and home run leader Cal Raleigh.
Led by Raleigh, the Mariners rank fourth in home runs, giving them the sort of power they need to triumph in the inevitable close games.
Overall, they rank tenth in runs per game and fourth in road runs per game. This latter stat is relevant because their home ballpark is notoriously run-suppressing.
Takeaway
Seattle's combination of well-rounded pitching, solid hitting, and home-run power distinguishes it from other World Series contenders.
And yet, we get the Mariners at a great price.
The odds account too strongly for impressions fixed by the most recent season, but Seattle's appearance in the World Series would certainly not feel as random as the recent appearance of teams like Texas and Arizona.
As explained above, the Mariners have everything you could ask for in a champion, making them the most reasonable and justifiable investment.
Best Bet: Mariners World Series at +1100 with Bet365
World Series Odds (per Bet365)
Los Angeles Dodgers +275
Philadelphia Phillies +650
Milwaukee Brewers +750
Detroit Tigers +900
Toronto Blue Jays +900
San Diego Padres +1100
Seattle Mariners +1100
Houston Astros +1200
New York Yankees +1200
Listening to History
History tells us that it is extremely unlikely for the Dodgers to repeat as World Series champions.
The last team to win consecutive World Series titles was the Yankees back in the year 2000.
It's not like there weren't teams that were great in consecutive seasons.
But — and this speaks to why I detest favorites in futures betting — so much has to go right for even the best team ever to win a title. This is especially true in a variance-heavy sport where any pitcher's FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) can diverge greatly from his ERA and where a tremendous disparity can exist between a batter's slugging rate and his expected slugging rate.
Stated differently, a team can have the batters who do the best job of making good contact and the pitchers who do the best job of throwing quality pitches, but, as this sample of metrics indicates, what is truly a good performance frequently doesn't translate to what actually happens.
To expect the same team to have enough good fortune to beat out all of the opposing contenders in consecutive seasons is ludicrous.
For variance reasons alone, the significance of which is formulated in terms of the tendency for champions to fail to repeat, we have to look elsewhere.
But, also in terms of history, I find it so odd that a Dave Roberts-managed team is being expected by so many bettors to win a consecutive title.
This is a manager of whom it was commonly asked whether he could lead a team to a title. He's had many great Dodgers teams over the years and has so often come up short in the postseason. I don't get why we are supposed to forget that this is Dave Roberts who we're talking about.
The Dodgers' Bullpen
Now, the counter to my Dave Roberts quip is that the Dodgers have amazing MVP-caliber talent this year.
But they are also seriously flawed. They are flawed enough to have endured a 33-game span in which they failed to exceed twelve victories.
Based on past years in which they experienced such a prolonged slump, we can't expect them to win the title.
Their primary flaw is with their pitching.
While they have very solid starters, those starters don't last long enough.
Consequently, they have to depend heavily on a bullpen that isn't good enough.
This bullpen leads the MLB in innings pitched with 528. It's telling that the lowly White Sox are second with 504.1 bullpen innings pitched and the Rockies third with 486.1 bullpen inings pitched.
In terms of ERA, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 20th.
The Dodgers simply fail to trot out enough good pitching.
Ruling Out Other Candidates
So, don't follow the masses by investing in the Dodgers.
But here are other relatively favored teams to avoid: one is the Phillies, who do have great starters but also have one of baseball's worst bullpens, ranking 24th in ERA.
Also avoid the Tigers, who lack enough quality starting pitching after Tarik Skubal. Their second-best starter is Casey Mize with a 3.63 ERA. Their other starters suffer an ERA of 4.51 or worse.
Their bullpen is also insufficient, ranking 17th in ERA. Tommy Kahnle was supposed to be a good addition, but he has declined massively in his first year as a Tiger. His ERA is 5.10.
Also avoid Toronto, which lacks enough good pitching in general, as evident in its ranking 21st in ERA.
The Yankees aren't much better. They take a step back relative to last year without Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole.
What About the Brewers, Astros, and Padres?
Milwaukee doesn't have betting value right now, because it is currently in peak form. You want to catch a team on a losing streak in order to maximize betting value.
But no matter what, the Brewers aren't worth investing in. Neither are the Astros and Padres.
The reason is the same for all three: they lack sufficient power in their respective lineups. All three of those teams rank in the bottom half in home runs per game.
Statistically speaking, home run-hitting ability takes on extra significance in the postseason.
In the playoffs, games are lower-scoring because the pitching is better. A home run, especially in a lower-scoring game, easily makes a decisive difference.
It is also, as common sense dictates, generally the case that teams that hit more home runs than their opponent are statistically likelier to win.
Run-scoring and, ultimately, winning will be too difficult for these teams in postseason baseball.
My Pick
Seattle has everything you want in a champ, and it all comes at a nice price.
Before the season, ESPN ranked Seattle's starting rotation as the best in baseball. It is well-stocked with proven guys, including Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
While injuries have caused those two players to struggle at times, they have plenty of time to find their form.
There's also Luis Castillo, who has the 26th-best ERA, and Bryan Woo, who has the 16th-best ERA.
The bullpen, moreover, is a good one, ranking ninth. It is anchored by just the man you want to close out games, Andres Munoz with his 1.31 ERA.
Their lineup features guys like Julio Rodriguez, who is a historically good young player now rounding into form, Randy Arozarena, who is known to love the big stage, and home run leader Cal Raleigh.
Led by Raleigh, the Mariners rank fourth in home runs, giving them the sort of power they need to triumph in the inevitable close games.
Overall, they rank tenth in runs per game and fourth in road runs per game. This latter stat is relevant because their home ballpark is notoriously run-suppressing.
Takeaway
Seattle's combination of well-rounded pitching, solid hitting, and home-run power distinguishes it from other World Series contenders.
And yet, we get the Mariners at a great price.
The odds account too strongly for impressions fixed by the most recent season, but Seattle's appearance in the World Series would certainly not feel as random as the recent appearance of teams like Texas and Arizona.
As explained above, the Mariners have everything you could ask for in a champion, making them the most reasonable and justifiable investment.
Best Bet: Mariners World Series at +1100 with Bet365
