World Cup Semi-Finals Discussion

Few thoughts while I'm procrastinating at work....

Germany/Brazil game basically a pk with both teams -110 to advance last I checked this morning. I wonder what line would be if Neymar and Silva both starting, Brazil -140 to advance? Either way, I still think Germany has a nice advantage with both of those guys out, because let's face it, Dante is a nice player, but he is no Silva. And whomever is chosen to replace Neymar in the starting lineup is just going to deplete the bench and lack of options in tactical changes later on if need be.
To me, Brazil has played mediocre this world cup. Honestly Hulk has been poor, Oscar mediocre. In the little time I've seen Willian/Ramires, I've see no game changer type play. Fred hit the pitch yet? Jo is a lazy bastard. Brazil chances of scoring will come off a set piece or counter. Germans should have advantage on corners on both ends, but Brazil certainly has some set piece takers that can dazzle.
Germany has been playing a highly efficient, ball control, tight defensive game, offering fewer opportunities to the opponents....albeit with lack of many dangerous chances themselves.
But, if Schurrle had any class about him, Germany would have beaten France 3-0 at least in the quarters. It's not as if Germany has played a bunch of daisies so far and they've done very well only with 1 draw.
Game very well will be low scoring. I'm on Germany, but don't think this is a slam dunk by any means. I just see more value with the full team.

Will definitely be playing cards market bigger. Cards reset, and I see a bunch of fouls turning into cards. Germans already complaining with the shit tackling of Brazil (which is truth anyway), but don't think the Germans will not make a few later, rash tackles themselves if need be.

Give me a 1-0 Germany victory with 4-5 yellow cards and 10 corners and see me walkign away with a big smile.

:cheers:
 
dylanphan said:
Few thoughts while I'm procrastinating at work....

Germany/Brazil game basically a pk with both teams -110 to advance last I checked this morning. I wonder what line would be if Neymar and Silva both starting, Brazil -140 to advance? Either way, I still think Germany has a nice advantage with both of those guys out, because let's face it, Dante is a nice player, but he is no Silva. And whomever is chosen to replace Neymar in the starting lineup is just going to deplete the bench and lack of options in tactical changes later on if need be.
To me, Brazil has played mediocre this world cup. Honestly Hulk has been poor, Oscar mediocre. In the little time I've seen Willian/Ramires, I've see no game changer type play. Fred hit the pitch yet? Jo is a lazy bastard. Brazil chances of scoring will come off a set piece or counter. Germans should have advantage on corners on both ends, but Brazil certainly has some set piece takers that can dazzle.
Germany has been playing a highly efficient, ball control, tight defensive game, offering fewer opportunities to the opponents....albeit with lack of many dangerous chances themselves.
But, if Schurrle had any class about him, Germany would have beaten France 3-0 at least in the quarters. It's not as if Germany has played a bunch of daisies so far and they've done very well only with 1 draw.
Game very well will be low scoring. I'm on Germany, but don't think this is a slam dunk by any means. I just see more value with the full team.

Will definitely be playing cards market bigger. Cards reset, and I see a bunch of fouls turning into cards. Germans already complaining with the shit tackling of Brazil (which is truth anyway), but don't think the Germans will not make a few later, rash tackles themselves if need be.

Give me a 1-0 Germany victory with 4-5 yellow cards and 10 corners and see me walkign away with a big smile.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

I disagree that Hulk has been poor, he's actually been pretty good upfront for brasil, IMO...Chile match was one that stands out...both Neymar and Hulk helped to stretch the field...

I like Dante's familiarity with the germans and think that is a bonus for the home side....

that being said, I have already played the draw and am more than likely to play Brasil advance prop
 
Ewing effect in full mode with Brazil today. Lose best player(s) team/subs rise to the occasion.

A wonderful world cup. I really like Netherlands tomorrow.

Hoping for some serious drama and a Brazilian miracle this afternoon.
 
Brasil to Advance @ 1.89 (5u)
Brasil ML @ 2.7 (1u)

Nothing to go crazy about here, just two classic footballing nations battling it out for that final spot. Neither of these teams are playing out of this world...infact there really hasn't been one team in the tournament that has been very consistent in their performances.
Line came out a split even with the books knowing Silva would get suspended and Neymar out, there was a shift towards the Gerries but not for awhile then it shifted back to split and now there is movement towards the Brasilians. I've mentioned before that there are really only 2 teams that would make Brasil a -0.25 or PK and that would be the Argies and Gerries.
The loss of Neymar is big in terms of image but in terms of football he wasn't out of this world, the loss of Silva is a bigger blow as his leadership and skills are necessary against a very physically demanding German side. The question is who will step up for Neymar? The Brasilians aren't short of choices and it seems people expect a major dip from Neymar to guys like Ramires/Willian/Bernard, etc. The style might change with Oscar perhaps moving in more central and if Bernard plays he will use his speed on the wings.
The Germans will set up with a back four of Lahm/Hummels/Boateng/Howedes and Schwein/Khedira/Kroos in the middle with Muellar/Ozil/? I left a question mark there because there are choices for the Germans as this is expected to be a very close encounter you have game changers on their bench. The old man Klose is available, Schurrle, and Gotze all can really change the dynamics upfront.
There is no doubt the quality of the Germans, a standout keeper, a solid defensive line, options in the middle of the park and size/pace upfront..the key here is tactical management from Low. Germany have been one of the most consistent footballing nations over the past 20 years, they've at least made it to the semi's in the last 3 World Cups in which they lost the finals in 2002 vs Brasil and back then who was the Brasilian coach? Scolari. Since that defeat the Germans have done well to breeze through qualifiers, do well in group stages of Euro's and WC but they keep messing up at the most pivotal part. That comes down to poor in game tactics. Low may probably be one of the greatest German managers to have won....Nothing. He has a fairly ridiculous win percentage, 110 games managed, 75 wins 20 draws 15 loss yet still has not won silverware, this is probably his last shot at a title as there really aren't a lot of national team managers that have stayed as long at their helm like Low has. He has the resources and the chances but cannot complete the task.
Scolari on the other hand is back for more, second stint as Brasil coach after leading them to the 2002 title. Since 2002 the Selecao have endured a rather wishy washy effort they brought in 3 different managers with very mediocre results, now they bring back Scolari in hopes he can help deliver the prize that the country wants and needs.
Tactically speaking Scolari is known to have a much more rougher edge to this teams, as we saw vs Chile and Colombia things can get nasty. Whether or not people buy into this, the answer still remains he wins. Now I've said from the start don't be surprise to see Brasil get some home cooking, things always get fishy when the host nation is involved. Whether its a bias from the referees, or the fans get involved sometimes you scratch your head wondering how on earth did they get the result?

The line here is suggesting this is Brasil's toughest task, the last time you saw Brasil priced like this was last years CONFED Cup final vs Spain where it was a PK/-0.25 the end result was a 3-0 win. Was that the start of the Spain downfall or did the Brasilians just outplayed them? Whichever way you look at it, the Brasilians sealed the deal when it mattered.

I support both teams and have nothing bad to say about either teams, but I"m going to side with a Brasilian team that has had a chip on their shoulder all tournament long. This team is not just composed of Neymar, sure he can be a difference maker but the depth on this team is big enough that they shouldn't be threatened by the Germans. Ozil/Muellar are soft players and we've seen how Muellar likes to dive and whine. This is going to be a very gritty and physical game, a set piece could do the trick but ET/Pen not out of the question. The Germans have gone to a much more slower tempo style and some have compared them to the Italians. They were tested by the Algerians and settled to just absorb the French attack for a good 70mins. This could be a 0-0 snooze fest or you could see things get open quickly if a team goes down early. With how both teams are shaping up, I think this is going to be a slower possession game, each knowing the strengths of one another, don't try to attack Brasil with an onslaught and don't try to play tiki taka BS with the Germans.
Set pieces or a controversial call will decide this!
 
i've gotten killed this tournament so thanks for the writeup on the opposing side, TM.

I have not liked Brazil in this tournament despite picking them to win, however I'm thinking to myself there is value on the Germans pick line at +108. That way no blood if we go to ET, so if Neuer plays like he's capable and shuts them out I have no chance to lose. Without Neymar scoring I'm not sure where the offense comes from besides set pieces and the German backline has to play a role in keeping that quiet.

From where I sit here, I'm not sure what additional value I'd see on the Germans at halftime if I waited besides falling behind 1-0 or 2-0 and adding that benefit. I think their open style with their talent is much more conducive to Brazil tying it back up, but that wouldn't matter if they held on and went to ET with my pickline play as opposed to a play if they had the lead at halftime
 
Some outside issues kept me from being online between the QF & SF, which is why I didn't get a chance to collate & post the following stats before the first SF (in light of the result, nobody misse dout of anything. No historical data anticipated that result coming - surprise, surprise).

Note: I consider the modern era of the WC to have started in Mexico in 1986 (hence the pre-modern era are WC up to & incl. 1982). 1986 was the first WC to finalise the basic template we see used today (initial 4-team group play giving way to a knockout phase sequence of L16/QF/SF/F). Also note, the stats from the Ger/Bra 7-1 result have not been included in what follows.

-----------------

(1) Scoreless 1st halves
- In the pre-modern era, only 2 of 18 SF 1st halves ended scoreless.

- In the modern era, there have been 9 scoreless 1st halves out of the 14 SF played. At least 1 SF in every modern era WC has delivered a scoreless 1st half.

As an aside: the goals total for the 14 modern era SF 1st halves prior to 2014 comes in at 8, an average of 0.57/game. Brazil & Germany, ahem, combined to deliver nearly 9 times that.


(2) Scoreless 2nd halves
- In the pre-modern era, only 2 of 18 SF delivered scoreless 2nd halves.

- In the modern era, only 3 of 14 SF have delivered scoreless 2nd halves.

Unlike with the pronounced difference re 1st half scoring between eras, SF across the board have not been in the habit of delivering scoreless 2nd halves.


(3) Overall scoring
- Pre-modern era SF averaged 4.22 gpg, with 13 of 18 SF seeing at least 3 goals scored.

- Modern era SF have averaged 1.86 gpg, with only 3 of 14 SF seeing at least 3 goals scored.

One thing that has stayed consistent across eras is the scoring of losing teams: only 4 of 32 losers have managed to total more than 1 goal in regulation.


(4) First scoring team results
- In the pre-modern era, 4 of 18 teams scoring first went on to lose a SF in regulation.

- In the modern era, no team scoring first has lost a SF in regulation (13 in total, there's been one 0-0 result).

Given the radical drop in scoring rates for SF between eras, it makes sense scoring first has become that much more of a critical act.


(5) Clean sheets
- In the pre-modern era, only 2 of 36 teams managed to keep a clean sheet in regulation.

- In the modern era, 10 of 28 teams have managed to keep a clean sheet in regulation.


(6) Other tidbits
- Every WC featuring a SF stage since 1970 (9 in total) has seen at least one SF deliver a drawn 1st half.

- In the history of WC SF, only 1 eventual losing team has led at half-time (Italy, as host nation, led Argentina 1-0 @h/t in 1990. Argentina won on penalties after they manged to draw 1-1 at the end of regulation & then extra-time).

- Only 3 of 17 teams to lead a SF at half-time have failed to go on and win in regulation (Italy up 1-0 in 1990; Italy up 1-0 in 1970; Hungary up 1-0 in 1954 - all played extra-time after drawing @90 mins).

- Only 7 of 32 SF winning teams have been held scoreless in a 2nd half.
 
Yep, while they're my team to win it all, losing a CONMEBOL in the other semi just seems to set up for the Argies. They should smell blood tomorrow. Winner tomorrow I will be on in the finals regardless.
 
well, the German war machine was in full force yesterday, the soldiers were all meth'd up and the panzers were rolling.

i don't really put any stock that FIFA NEEDS argentina to make the finals or wants them too or anything. i think the final will be great regardless--and the dutch may have more stars with dimaria out (though messi+dimaria > rvp robben, but messi alone < rvp and robben).

gotta give higuan credit--he scored a hell of a goal in the quarters, but without that deflection there is no shot. i can't stress enough how good argentina looked the 1st 30 minutes and how average their attack was (d was great until stoppage time) the last 60. what happened? the dimaria injury.

so if messi rolls through belgium, netherlands, and germany in the knockout stage i will tip my hat, eat my words, and say that this was the greatest accomplishment by any argentine player in football (or handball). i just don't c it.

also, i c the dutch playing it a little close to the vest in the 1st half, doubt we have a 5-nil lead by the half hour mark. i will play 1st half draw and leverage my netherlands future, feeling things out for the dutch in the 2nd half.
 
Quick thoughts on todays game before I get bogged down with work...

Fully disagree with all this talk about FIFA NEEDS a South American team in the final. Everyone thought Brazil would sure to get calls yesterday - maybe - but it didn't really matter much now did it.
As a handicapper, all you can do is take a look at all the variables available, and map out the most probably cause of events. There is no edict that the ref should favor one team or the other, so that should not come into play one bit when evaluating the outcome of a match. Home field is a factor, but the game is in Brazil, so although closer to Argentina, and perhaps more Argentine fans will be there, again, I cannot see this being a large factor. As far as the referee goes, he's a Turkish ref - a UEFA ref and a cunt at that. Straight redded Nani vs Real Madrid in a crucial CL clash a few years back. But being that we are not using a South American ref, again, I think any ideas of home cooking should not really come into play here.

When I evaluate the talent that hits the field, DiMaria out in my eyes is the biggest blow. We see what losing a key guy or two can do to a team, in particular one that plays so prominently. If van Persie misses, that's a blow, but in all honesty, does he factor much into the Dutch buildup? He is more a guy that hangs on the last shoulder, looking for that probing pass, or making that keen run, and getting the crucial touch on the ball. His scoring touch would be missed, but I think he is much more replaceable than DiMaria.
I simply do not think Messi can do it all. Messi great with other parts around him, he can really shine. When you surround him with Xavi, Iniesta and then the likes of Sanchez or David Villa these are all players that deserve great attention, and opens up spaces and it's in those spaces where Messi kills. Now he'll have Higuain but he'll lack that cog that helps in the buildup and opens up these spaces in the midfield.
The Dutch have become a frustrating team to play against. They no longer play the wide open 4-3-3, the best defense is a constantly attacking offense. Now they opt for a more conservative 5-3-2.....which could even be more like a 5-4-1. They are comfortable keeping guys back, clogging the mf, keeping possesion. They play with 3 centre backs, so going will be tough for Higuain to get clear.
All this being said probably leads one to believe that I favor the Dutch here. Maybe so. Honestly, I just think the odds are too high on Dutch to advance, win outright. To me this one looks very, very close. Holland has had issues the past two matches in scoring - needed the late two goal miracle vs Mexico, and obviously got nothing vs CR. Both of those teams really packed it in though and Holland had plenty of chances, just a hard time getting the goal. I don't necessarily think Argentina pack it in, they play good, they've played the better opposition. Just think this one is real close and I'll take a shot getting higher odds with one side. +223 for Dutch to win outright is nice. I don't htink Argentina should be -140 to advance in this one.
 
dylanphan said:
Quick thoughts on todays game before I get bogged down with work...

Fully disagree with all this talk about FIFA NEEDS a South American team in the final. Everyone thought Brazil would sure to get calls yesterday - maybe - but it didn't really matter much now did it.
As a handicapper, all you can do is take a look at all the variables available, and map out the most probably cause of events. There is no edict that the ref should favor one team or the other, so that should not come into play one bit when evaluating the outcome of a match. Home field is a factor, but the game is in Brazil, so although closer to Argentina, and perhaps more Argentine fans will be there, again, I cannot see this being a large factor. As far as the referee goes, he's a Turkish ref - a UEFA ref and a cunt at that. Straight redded Nani vs Real Madrid in a crucial CL clash a few years back. But being that we are not using a South American ref, again, I think any ideas of home cooking should not really come into play here.

When I evaluate the talent that hits the field, DiMaria out in my eyes is the biggest blow. We see what losing a key guy or two can do to a team, in particular one that plays so prominently. If van Persie misses, that's a blow, but in all honesty, does he factor much into the Dutch buildup? He is more a guy that hangs on the last shoulder, looking for that probing pass, or making that keen run, and getting the crucial touch on the ball. His scoring touch would be missed, but I think he is much more replaceable than DiMaria.
I simply do not think Messi can do it all. Messi great with other parts around him, he can really shine. When you surround him with Xavi, Iniesta and then the likes of Sanchez or David Villa these are all players that deserve great attention, and opens up spaces and it's in those spaces where Messi kills. Now he'll have Higuain but he'll lack that cog that helps in the buildup and opens up these spaces in the midfield.
The Dutch have become a frustrating team to play against. They no longer play the wide open 4-3-3, the best defense is a constantly attacking offense. Now they opt for a more conservative 5-3-2.....which could even be more like a 5-4-1. They are comfortable keeping guys back, clogging the mf, keeping possesion. They play with 3 centre backs, so going will be tough for Higuain to get clear.
All this being said probably leads one to believe that I favor the Dutch here. Maybe so. Honestly, I just think the odds are too high on Dutch to advance, win outright. To me this one looks very, very close. Holland has had issues the past two matches in scoring - needed the late two goal miracle vs Mexico, and obviously got nothing vs CR. Both of those teams really packed it in though and Holland had plenty of chances, just a hard time getting the goal. I don't necessarily think Argentina pack it in, they play good, they've played the better opposition. Just think this one is real close and I'll take a shot getting higher odds with one side. +223 for Dutch to win outright is nice. I don't htink Argentina should be -140 to advance in this one.
Click to expand...

i'm trying to find reports on aguero heard he's fit to play and I think Higauin deserves a little more credit as well :)
 
I believe Aguero reports he's fit - but I hardly think he is.....I'm thinking Jozy Altidore type smoke screen there.

Higuain very good, but Dutch CB's should be able to contain him.

I think Argentina has a good side, I just think bettors are downplaying the absence of DiMaria (a mistake, imho) and upplaying the possible absence of van Persie (another mistake I think)

Argentina very well may win and advance, I would rather just be getting juice back then laying it in this game. I make it a lot closer than others I guess.
 
With the exception of his wonder headed against ESP, has Van Persie been good at all in this tournament? I thought he was dreadful against CR. If I was betting the Dutch id rather see KVH in there and maybe RVP as a late sub. If not for the name no one would be missing RVP if he wasn't in the lineup today.
 
Argentina was an easy BIG bet for me today prior to DiMaria injury. Lots of pressure on Messi today, but not sure he even cares. I'll be on ARG, but it's a matter of how large now. ARG D is really playing well and seem to be in good form. That was their only issue entering this WC.

FYI: Hearing RVP has "stomach issues" ... Not sure what's up with that, but something to monitor.

Seeing a low scoring affair 1-0 ARG in regular time, or 2-1 ARG in extra time. The bet will be ARG to advance, currently sitting at -140
 
And I can't wait to grab ARG as a DOG against Germany in the Finals, if they meet. Have to assume public will overreact to the German victory.
 
Yeah, if todays game is tight which I also expect, Germans gonna be pretty heavy favorites against whomever wins.
Maybe -140/-150 to Argentina, -175/-185 vs Netherlands. Gonna definitely be skewed.

Hell, after last nights win, Germany was -145 to win already, since that time it's drifted back down to -130 which may be about the best it's gonna get.
 
Both teams to score @ 2.10 (5u)
Netherlands o1 @ 2.18 (3u)
o2.5 @ 2.53 (2u) will play ingame here if still 0-0 15mins in
Corners o10 @ 2.00 (3u)
Argentina to score 1h @ 2.46 (1u)
Netherlands to score 1h @ 2.78 (1u)

I don't really want to get involved with a side here.
The scenarios are endless
All Euro Final
Messi to lift WC in Brasil
But what we've seen is teams that have just edge past will soon be exposed and well Brasil got it coming sooner or later. There was no help anywhere for them to escape.
Argies have been slipping by and the really surprising thing is that teams have not really threatened them offensively...this is a team that is known to have a rather mediocre D and keeper. But I suppose when we look at whom they've played there haven't been fluid offences yet the potential was there.
1 goal vs Bosnia
0 vs Iran (Iran had plenty of chances)
2 vs Nigeria
0 vs Swiss
0 vs Belgium

So are you telling me the Argentina have the best D in the tournament? Ridiculous. I call myself extremely fortunate to have won my CR +1 wager, Dutch just peppered that goal, the only game so far they've been shut out.
I couldn't play the sides because I still am thinking about how someone in here posted the ridiculous how teams do after a Pen shootout win, only Brasil have broken that curse but they were favs, the teams that won a pen shootout and lose the next game were all underdogs.
However, this Dutch team just seems to keep motoring through.

I would like to wager the o/u on flopping as there are bound to be a shit load with the hard tackling Argies against the pace of Robben and as well Messi is probably going to get a good taste of De Jong. There should be a lot of play along the wings as both will probably want to avoid the chaos in the middle.

It would be funny to see Argies go all the way with Messi lifting the trophy infront of the Brasilians but then again the Dutch have a mission after the heart break in 2010 and it seems van Gaal is intent on leaving the Dutch on a high. Either way, Germany vs Argentina/Dutch Final is still going to be a great match, this should be a war.
 
Looks good Mike.....That's your boy, big Phil!


I hope you are right about goals being scored....slight lean to Dutch and their TT O for me.
 
aplous said:
Looks good Mike.....That's your boy, big Phil!


I hope you are right about goals being scored....slight lean to Dutch and their TT O for me.
Click to expand...

If I had won the bet I was going to be a bit nasty and ask you to put some Jayhawks avatar lol
 
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