World Cup Semi-Finals Discussion

Love to hear any reason to bet Brazil besides they are at home.......without JR I don't see how they win. DFB has gone 270+ without conceding.
 
aplous said:
Love to hear any reason to bet Brazil besides they are at home.......without JR I don't see how they win. DFB has gone 270+ without conceding.
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is that the reason? Just base everything without Neymar?
That's not a good enough reason to bet the Gerries either is it?
 
I'l be more than happy to take Brasil 0 and to advance, there is a huge tactical advantage between Scolari vs Low.
It's not like Germany are going to run riot against the Brasil D either it will be a possession ball game and this game will most likely be won on a set piece.
 
I just don't think Brazil is that good.....bunch of guys on their lineup that are average at best.....soooo many fouls against Colombia. Now you remove their best threat? Germany totally shut down France and I think they do it again unless the home team gets the love from the officials again. (Disallowed goal was bullshit + ref refusing to show anyone a card despite 30+ fouls).

Lahm moved back to fullback finally last match.....
 
aplous said:
I just don't think Brazil is that good.....bunch of guys on their lineup that are average at best.....soooo many fouls against Colombia. Now you remove their best threat? Germany totally shut down France and I think they do it again unless the home team gets the love from the officials again. (Disallowed goal was bullshit + ref refusing to show anyone a card despite 30+ fouls).

Lahm moved back to fullback finally last match.....
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yet you also said Colombia and France were better teams. You doubted the Gerries and you doubted the Brasilians.
So many fouls were expected, that is South American football. All any team really needed to do was just hit James and put him out of the equation and they would be screwed.
I'm not fading Gerries, I'm considering Brasilian at this price more enticing.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
if Silva's yellow card appeal is successful then you know FIFA wants Brasil to win
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Agreed, but there is almost no chance it's successful right? It would be unprecedented and would clearly show their desire for Brazil to win, which just seems like it's way too WWE for it too happen. You never know though, I guess.
 
Lareux said:
Agreed, but there is almost no chance it's successful right? It would be unprecedented and would clearly show their desire for Brazil to win, which just seems like it's way too WWE for it too happen. You never know though, I guess.
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exactly most appeals are for red cards not yellows. so right now this can be put under the table but as I said if they some how rescind it then you know something is up
 
Toronto_Mike said:
yet you also said Colombia and France were better teams. You doubted the Gerries and you doubted the Brasilians.
So many fouls were expected, that is South American football. All any team really needed to do was just hit James and put him out of the equation and they would be screwed.
I'm not fading Gerries, I'm considering Brasilian at this price more enticing.
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Show me where I said France was better than Germany please.....I said they had a shot to advance....are you always this salty or does the WC do it for u?


Ask any neutral and they'll say the ref was awful in the Bra/Col match.... Brazil should have had multiple yellows (which would have changed their fouling ways) and Colombia had a legal goal disallowed.
 
aplous said:
Show me where I said France was better than Germany please.....I said they had a shot to advance....are you always this salty or does the WC do it for u?


Ask any neutral and they'll say the ref was awful in the Bra/Col match.... Brazil should have had multiple yellows (which would have changed their fouling ways) and Colombia had a legal goal disallowed.
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Huh? You said in Rex's thread " I like Colombia and Frogs to move on today and meet in the semis."
I don't get it, it's a discussion forum if you can't handle having a discussion then what gives?

Yes I agree there should been many yellows for both sides, whats your point? Colombia didn't play any better than they did in previous rounds that many people had been saying. Scolari's tactics worked perfectly against Colombia. The better team on that day won and I had already posted in the Q Finals thread how the potential of home cooking was going to be there and some odd calls would be apparent.
 
Marco Antonio Rodriguez is the lead ref for the Brazil/Germany semifinal. He was in charge when Uruguay played Italy and Suarez bit Chiellini. He's had two matches thus far in the tournament. He had a Mexican crew in the Suarez Bite Game. That crew will be in charge, with USA's Mark Geiger serving as the fourth official. He was also the fourth ref in the aforementioned Bite Game.
 
Toronto_Mike said:
Huh? You said in Rex's thread " I like Colombia and Frogs to move on today and meet in the semis."
I don't get it, it's a discussion forum if you can't handle having a discussion then what gives?

Yes I agree there should been many yellows for both sides, whats your point? Colombia didn't play any better than they did in previous rounds that many people had been saying. Scolari's tactics worked perfectly against Colombia. The better team on that day won and I had already posted in the Q Finals thread how the potential of home cooking was going to be there and some odd calls would be apparent.
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Yes, Scolari's "tactis" worked perfectly:


[h=1]BRAZIL REAPED WHAT IT HAD SOWN[/h]






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    Has injured Brazil star Neymar been the unwilling victim of his coach's controversial tactics in defense? (Getty)








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Lost among the hyperbole and sense of mourning over the loss of Neymar to the 2014 FIFA World Cup, is the uncomfortable reality that the host nation may have brought it upon itself with its continued and controversial use of 'tactical fouling'.

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By Tim Vickery

7 JUL 2014 - 3:09 AM UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO



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After the cruel injury that keeps Neymar out of the rest of the World Cup, Brazil has become a country in mourning – and also a country in denial.
Camilo Zuniga, the Colombian right back whose ill judged lunge caused Neymar's injury, has become public enemy number one. As I write, Brazil's most famous football commentator has just described it as one of the most violent moments in the history of the game. The Brazilian FA is in the process of asking FIFA to give Zuniga a huge ban.
At this time, with the poster boy out of action, reality has been thrown out of the window.
Saturday's edition of 'Lance!' – Brazil's usually excellent sports daily – makes a sole passing reference to the wider context. "Curiously," says one article, "Brazil committed more fouls than Colombia – 31 against 23." This fact is presented as if it were some statistical quirk. But really it is part of a plan.
It is all very well for Brazil coach Luiz Felipe Scolari to complain that Neymar was being hunted on the field. The hunting started from his side. This is an unfortunate part of the contemporary Brazilian game. It is called tactical fouling. Its aim is to prevent the opposition gaining any fluency in possession by repeatedly interrupting the game with fouls.
I well recall being in the stadium for the final of the 2007 Copa America. Brazil, with an understrength side, pulled off a surprise by beating Argentina 3-0. It was a clinical counter-attacking triumph. But, up against a team with the likes of Riquelme, Veron and a young Lionel Messi, Brazil opened up its tool box and committed around 45 fouls.
Last year's Confederations Cup final against Spain was another resounding 3-0 win for Brazil, with some superb Neymar moments along the way. But the Spanish were entitled to a little grumble about the persistent fouling by their opponent – Brazil committed 26 fouls in that game, five fewer than its total against Colombia.
If any player was hunted on the field at Fortaleza last Saturday (AEST) it was the number ten of Colombia, James Rodriguez. Again and again he was on the end of vicious fouls from Brazil midfielder Fernandinho, who appeared to be acting to a plan to intimidate his opponent out of the game. And the referee did nothing.
The danger signs were there in Brazil's previous match against Chile. Right at the start Fernandinho flew into a late tackle. It was a clear yellow card. None was awarded. This leniency has been so prevalent that we can only assume the referees are acting on some kind of FIFA directive. It would seem that the world governing body, understandably, does not want to see too many players suspended, which might devalue its showpiece competition. Even Lionel Messi has been fortunate to escape punishment for the occasional petulant challenge or reaction.
This style of refereeing is very dangerous in a game involving two South American sides. After Fernandinho had got away with his bad tackle against Chile, it was clear that Chile would react. If Brazil was going to have a free one, then so would Chile – and it was also clear who the victim would be. Charles Aranguiz slid in with a tackle on Neymar which reduced the effectiveness of the young Brazilian in the match and briefly threatened his participation against Colombia.
In other words, Brazil had received a warning – do not go out to hunt lest you be hunted. It did not heed that warning. It tried to kick James Rodriguez out of the game, and the outcome is that Neymar has been kicked out of the World Cup.
​
It is very sad for him, for his team and for the tournament. But the sad, and surely unavoidable truth is that Brazil is reaping what it has sown – and as a proud owner of 1982 Brazil shirt, that is a desperately despondent sentence to be forced to write.







 
And Aguero replacing DiMaria up front, even at 25%

With Higuain, they good
 
apolous...seriously that's all you got? hilarious so Brasil won the game when the game got out of hand and you are going to say it's Scolari's fault?
Hmm interestingly enough you and I know that the ref let this one loose, he could of warned players to cool it but some how not a single yellow was given in the 1h.
I had Fernandinho to get a yellow card @ 4.00 and I still cannot believe he did not get one in the first half. I already knew that this was going to be a physical game and so did others here. So I still fail to see your point, Scolari's tactic's worked, Brasil won the game. Neymar's injury was a product of an ill timed challenge, so are we to say the other injuries in the world cup are part of the managers fault for their tactics?
 
kjohnson109 said:
He can't be fit, but nice gamesmanship
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Pretty sure this might be the same case with Altidore.
As you said just mind tricks and even if he does play what effect will he have? Has looked pretty awful so far when he has played. Argentina's game is in Messi's feet yet again although I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dutch midfield just hit him hard like how Brasil did to James. Also is Romero ready for a potential onslaught of shots?
 
line has been wishy washy, prior to the Neymar official news Brasil were ever so slight favs I know Rex got Gerries 0 +120 or something like that, then there was a swing favoring the Gerries and now it's back to being balanced out.
Both teams have a rather long unbeaten streak, Germany at 16, Brasil at 14.
Germans are rarely at this price when they are not playing at home or neutral ground, only Argentina, Brasil, and maybe the Dutch at home ground would garner this much respect.
 
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Name the Finalists - Brazil/Netherlands +7500
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Top European Team - Netherlands +1950*
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Winner 2014 - Netherlands +4200*

Should I start hedging now? Not sure of the best way to do this. Any help?
 
Skoalmint said:
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Name the Finalists - Brazil/Netherlands +7500
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Top European Team - Netherlands +1950*
6/12/14 4:00pm Soccer World Cup Winner 2014 - Netherlands +4200*

Should I start hedging now? Not sure of the best way to do this. Any help?
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Well betting against the Dutch in the semis would obviously be the way to hedge if you're going to hedge. You could also bet some against Brazil, but to a lesser degree. What aren't you sure of as far as hedging goes?
 
Lareux said:
Well betting against the Dutch in the semis would obviously be the way to hedge if you're going to hedge. You could also bet some against Brazil, but to a lesser degree. What aren't you sure of as far as hedging goes?
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I should have specified. Most concerned with the finalists one. Do I let the first game ride and worry about second or do I start with the first? I think I have an idea of what I want to do. Wanted to know what you guys think if I should push it one more game. Been getting very lucky.
 
Skoalmint said:
I should have specified. Most concerned with the finalists one. Do I let the first game ride and worry about second or do I start with the first? I think I have an idea of what I want to do. Wanted to know what you guys think if I should push it one more game. Been getting very lucky.
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and there is nothing wrong with that.
To be honest I personally think it's Brasil/Argentina as it's probably the most enticing of headlines for WC Final in Brasil, however matchup wise the Argies are close to playing second fiddle in all departments minus Messi. So I think the Netherlands wager is as good as you could possibly get.
In terms of Brasil, I like both countries but Gerries should have the competitive edge, however I still cannot help but think that Low's in ability to win when it matters is going to haunt him.
What are the odds for Germany/Argentina final in your book?
 
Toronto_Mike said:
oh and Skoal if you get Brasil/Dutch finals you'll win the contest too!
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He also wins with a Dutch/Germany final and the Dutch winning the final.

I posted all of the scenarios left in the contest thread if anyone is interested.
 
Skoalmint said:
I should have specified. Most concerned with the finalists one. Do I let the first game ride and worry about second or do I start with the first? I think I have an idea of what I want to do. Wanted to know what you guys think if I should push it one more game. Been getting very lucky.
Click to expand...

With that payout for the 'name the finalists' wager, you should be able to easily hedge to at least put yourself in a position not to lose any money. Even if you bet on every other finals possibility, you should make out okay. It's all dependent on how much you put on that wager, but even if it's a fraction of a unit, you're getting a good payout.

Good luck in whatever you decide, and nice job in the WC Contest thus far. Can't say I'm rooting for you as I still have a shot to win though. :o
 
Toronto_Mike said:
and there is nothing wrong with that.
To be honest I personally think it's Brasil/Argentina as it's probably the most enticing of headlines for WC Final in Brasil, however matchup wise the Argies are close to playing second fiddle in all departments minus Messi. So I think the Netherlands wager is as good as you could possibly get.
In terms of Brasil, I like both countries but Gerries should have the competitive edge, however I still cannot help but think that Low's in ability to win when it matters is going to haunt him.
What are the odds for Germany/Argentina final in your book?
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I think Brasil/Arg final is exactly what they want. Atmosphere would be amazing. At this point none of teams left have shown they are capable of getting to final. All 4 look very average with moments of greatness. As much as the Germans seem like right play, I cannot see Brasil losing here. If the Dutch don't do something different they have no shot. Robben getting the ball on the right and cutting in to his left is fucking old already. They need width from the left to be successful in my opinion. If they can get width from both I think they handle Argies.

I'm using 5dimes so +235.
 
Lareux said:
With that payout for the 'name the finalists' wager, you should be able to easily hedge to at least put yourself in a position not to lose any money. Even if you bet on every other finals possibility, you should make out okay. It's all dependent on how much you put on that wager, but even if it's a fraction of a unit, you're getting a good payout.

Good luck in whatever you decide, and nice job in the WC Contest thus far. Can't say I'm rooting for you as I still have a shot to win though. :o
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Was trying to decide if i should hedge with possible finals matchups or games. Think i'm going to unload a bit on Germans and go from there. And yeah, thanks man. Contest was real cool. Best of luck.
 
this is fucking hilarious

[video=youtube;cv9xrJWW2v8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv9xrJWW2v8&list=UUH2VZQBLFTOp6I_qgnBJCuQ[/video]
 
Germany has lost in the semi's in the last 2 WC.
Lost as hosts to Italy but did beat a host country vs South Korea
 
James Rodriguez to win Golden Boot looks like quite the value at -145

Muller would need at least 2 goals plus an assist to overtake him, Messi would need 2 goals plus 2 assists (a 3rd goal would obviously surpass James)

The x factor of course would be if either Muller or Messi are in the consolation match when all hell could break loose
 
kj--then you could hedge with game props for the consolation game--esp. if mueller and messi get a goal + an assist in the semis. i can c 3 goals in the consolation game, but am not holding my breath for much more. the 4 teams remaining are all in the top 5 or 6 in the world right now (not over the last few years, but as a flashpoint, where all 4 r better than spain, the 4th being the dutch, and we saw what they did to spain in the 1st game). true motivation will b a big factor, especially for germany who has been in that game before, and netherlands, who have never won a WC even though alot of these guys have come so close.

t-mike--did you say side-show bob will be the brazilian captain? my mind is officially blown. i would have thought julio caesar or maicon. but luiz has been the one to get them through the knock-out stage twice. without silva, i feal luiz has a much better chance of being the goat than the hero today, though.

these 2 games are really tough to cap. with neymar and silva for brazil and without dimaria for argentina, its almost 50-50 for me, or rather 1st goal wins for both games.

one thing i know -- argentina will need more minutes and better play from higuan and lavezzi today--their attack really was messi-junkie more than messi-dependent after dimaria went down. i did not like their attack AT ALL after that, and the dutch are like a better, more experienced belgium squad.

good luck to all
 
Question: looking at props and one is for the Golden ball award--is this fifa's version of the MVP (where the golden boot is the top goalscorer). if so, i think i like messi at +175, closest competition being james at +275. david luiz at +600--i think he needs another big goal and i don't c that happen today. mueller scored 3 in game 1 vs. 10men portugal and a right-place-right-time goal vs the u.s. but has done little in the knockout stages.

with the iran goal, the dimaria injury, the messi-dependence and the fact that he plays 2 more games and i already have action on james at even money for golden ball and netherlands to win the tourney at +750, i am thinking that this prop may be hedge-worthy. any thoughts?
 
kjohnson109 said:
James Rodriguez to win Golden Boot looks like quite the value at -145

Muller would need at least 2 goals plus an assist to overtake him, Messi would need 2 goals plus 2 assists (a 3rd goal would obviously surpass James)

The x factor of course would be if either Muller or Messi are in the consolation match when all hell could break loose
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yup that 3rd place game over will be a big bet for me
 
dante should be in the line up today right? He should be familiar with alot of the Munich players over on the other side of the pitch today and with Silva's suspension in place today it opens up a spot for them.
 
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