World Cup 2022 Discussion

not been mentioned but France lost Benzema as we all know

I am thinking now France may be a candidate to miss the knockout stage
 
alright time to get this done

Group F

Belgium - They are on the back end of their 'golden generation' - and I think we might see a poor showing from Belgium overall after the group stage is over. They will MAYBE get through this group, it won't be easy. I would not be shocked to see any of these teams get through but I think the biggest concern that Belgium should have is they are still starting Aldeirwerald and Vertonghen. In their prime, they are one of the best CB duo's we've seen in the 21st century - but they are both on the back end of their career. Several other players, who were in their prime in 2018 in Lukaku and Hazard have taken big slides in their career. I am very cautious on Belgium in this tounrament.

Canada - Worth mentioning Canada has been in one World Cup and they have never scored a goal in the World Cup. They've got two star players and Davies and David. Don't be surprised if after this tournament there will be talk about bringing Jonathan David into the Premier League as he is currently in 4th in Ligue 1. Davies, is already a star for Bayern Munich - he is coming off a hamstring injury earlier this month but should be ok by all reports. Something to keep in mind is that Canada finished in first for CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. What struck me when USMNT played against them is this felt like a team that has balance. They've got consistency all across the field and I would not be shocked at all to see them qualify.

Croatia - The runner ups in 2018 and I've heard a lot of people love them but I just wonder about their age a little about as well (a common theme for me in some cases). Modric is 37 years old and the talisman to this historic midfield. They play Morocco in their first game (more on them later) and I think it's worth wondering if a loss their will set them back. In the knockout stages in 2018, they won every game in ET (PK's in 2) - I think they did get a little bit lucky. In the qualifying group they got by Russia, which is not a good team on the final day to qualify. They do have some youth mixed with age but I think they could struggle.

Morocco - By far the best team Africa during qualifying - giving up just ONE GOAL and winning every game (until the playoff, which they won 5-2 on agg). They have a ton of talent, with Ziyech in the fold again and Hakimi leading the team as their star player. I have great visions in 2018 as a clearly concussed Amrabat was being smacked in the face by the doctor to wake him up. Hopefully we don't see that again. This is my dark horse to make a run. Fun fact I learned the other day - most foreign born players in the tournament on this team. Remarkably their coach was fired after they qualified for the World Cup because everyone hated him (3rd time this has happened to him) - I think that speaks about how talented this team is.

1 Morocco
2 Canada
3 Croatia
4 Belgium

BOLD but here we fucking go
 
Group G

Brazil - the favorite in the tournament, and deservedly so. A critical World Cup for Neymar, this will determine where his legacy stands in Brazil and if he has what it takes. I think in previous tournaments the Brazilian team has centered around Neymar, that load should lighten in this one. The depth they have in the midfield and their forwards is incredible. If Allison goes down, Ederson is hardly a huge step downward. Where the concerns rise, if you want to have any, is that Thiago Silva is starting for Brazil. It was presumed that 2018 was his last World Cup, but his consistency has kept him in the squad. That slowness in pace could be a problem once we get to the knockout stage and games accumulate. Brazil is my pick to win the group.

Serbia - Serbia has had a great cycle in the run up to the World Cup, winning their qualifying group over Portugal and continuing that success in the Nations League. Mitrovic is coming off breaking a record in the Championship with 43 goals. After questions in their previous stints in the EPL, he has continued that form with 9 goals in the EPL this year. Vlahovic I think is probably a little disappointed with his performance this season , but nonetheless 6 goals in Serie A this year. Its questionable who starts in Serbia, and their 3rd striker Jovic has had success before in additional to Tadic on the wing. They are going to be potent offensively, there is no reason to think their won't be goals and they could have some success past the group stage. I saw ESPN said anything past the round of 16 would be a miracle, that doesnt make sense to me

Switzerland - Remarkably consistent by always getting out of the group stage in losing in the round of 16. Looking at the lineup, this is largely the same team that we saw in 2018. Most projections have Serbia and Switzerland facing off in the final game for who gets out of the group - I probably agree and this exact matchup happened in 2018 with a tense political back drop to add on. Sommer might be injured and its unclear when and if he plays. Switzerland is consistent but they just arent great anything.

Cameroon - They had a shocking advance to the World Cup by beating Algeria. In the past Cameroon has been a dark horse candidate and the next big African team. They have a few solid players but this is not the Cameroon team of the past. I think there is a chance this might just be one of the worst teams in the tournament. What really doesnt bode well is the coach, when announcing the team, seemed to not know who the plays where or how to pronounce anyones name

1 Brazil
2 Serbia
3 Switzerland
4 Cameroon
 
Group H

Portugal - an incredibly deep team with talent all over the pitch in every position, and they should in theory be right up there as one of the favorites. If you look around at whats being said, there are a few points of concerns for this team. The first, the manager, Santos. Despite the amount of attacking talent, he is a conservative minded coach and he believes in allowing opposing teams to keep possession. The second, is Ronaldo. I was in Portugal over the summer and I can confirm that there is probably no man that matters more to this country then Ronaldo. The drama surrounding his club and him seem like a dark cloud - and the constant attention cannot be loved by his teammates even if they are used to it. There is talk that Ronaldo needs to be benched - thats not going to happen. Third is the inconsitency at the goalkeeper position, where they had 3 starters during qualifying. Diogo Costa seems to have that spot tied up, but something to think about. Lastly, I think they will most Diogo Joita, who had the most goals and assists per minute for Portugal in qualifying.

Ghana - the USMNT old nemesis is still the same team. I watched quite a bit of AFCON and the fact that Ghana lost Comoros under a year ago in a tournament of meaning is worth thinking about. But being Nigeria to qualify gets them a bit of redemption. Theyve got some talent in the midfield with Kudus and Partey. A few other players you night recognize from around the EPL as well. The Ayew are both still expected to start, which leads me to think - they might not be scoring too much.

Uruguay - a mix of you and age from front to back for Uruguay. I cant believe that there is actually talk about Godin starting in some games. Godin was never the quickest, but he seemed done about 3 years ago. Saurez also seems like hell be leading the attack in this one as well, and he seems to have taken a step back as well. The midfield, with Valverde and Betancur are the heartbeat and the youth of Uruguay. Betancur is on a hot run with Spurs right now, scoring 4 goals in the last 2 weeks. Ultimately Uruguay should get through to the knockouts I believe, but I think the old age element might get exposed when it comes to the kncokout rounds

South Korea - I recall watching South Korea in 2018 play Sweden and think, wow this is one of the worst games I've ever watched. They did end up beating Germany in the next game, the beginning of the end for Low. There's question about whether Son will play or not, and ultimately I believe that he will. Although he ended up getting a hattrick in one game this season, I think its hard to deny that Son has not had the year he probably would have wanted to have thus far. There is a scattering of other European talent throughout team, but I think they will struggle to score. Interesting thing...4 Kims on the backline and the keeper is also named Kim.

1 Portugal
2. Uruguay
3 South Korea
4. Ghana
 
Group H

Portugal - an incredibly deep team with talent all over the pitch in every position, and they should in theory be right up there as one of the favorites. If you look around at whats being said, there are a few points of concerns for this team. The first, the manager, Santos. Despite the amount of attacking talent, he is a conservative minded coach and he believes in allowing opposing teams to keep possession. The second, is Ronaldo. I was in Portugal over the summer and I can confirm that there is probably no man that matters more to this country then Ronaldo. The drama surrounding his club and him seem like a dark cloud - and the constant attention cannot be loved by his teammates even if they are used to it. There is talk that Ronaldo needs to be benched - thats not going to happen. Third is the inconsitency at the goalkeeper position, where they had 3 starters during qualifying. Diogo Costa seems to have that spot tied up, but something to think about. Lastly, I think they will most Diogo Joita, who had the most goals and assists per minute for Portugal in qualifying.

Ghana - the USMNT old nemesis is still the same team. I watched quite a bit of AFCON and the fact that Ghana lost Comoros under a year ago in a tournament of meaning is worth thinking about. But being Nigeria to qualify gets them a bit of redemption. Theyve got some talent in the midfield with Kudus and Partey. A few other players you night recognize from around the EPL as well. The Ayew are both still expected to start, which leads me to think - they might not be scoring too much.

Uruguay - a mix of you and age from front to back for Uruguay. I cant believe that there is actually talk about Godin starting in some games. Godin was never the quickest, but he seemed done about 3 years ago. Saurez also seems like hell be leading the attack in this one as well, and he seems to have taken a step back as well. The midfield, with Valverde and Betancur are the heartbeat and the youth of Uruguay. Betancur is on a hot run with Spurs right now, scoring 4 goals in the last 2 weeks. Ultimately Uruguay should get through to the knockouts I believe, but I think the old age element might get exposed when it comes to the kncokout rounds

South Korea - I recall watching South Korea in 2018 play Sweden and think, wow this is one of the worst games I've ever watched. They did end up beating Germany in the next game, the beginning of the end for Low. There's question about whether Son will play or not, and ultimately I believe that he will. Although he ended up getting a hattrick in one game this season, I think its hard to deny that Son has not had the year he probably would have wanted to have thus far. There is a scattering of other European talent throughout team, but I think they will struggle to score. Interesting thing...4 Kims on the backline and the keeper is also named Kim.

1 Portugal
2. Uruguay
3 South Korea
4. Ghana
I hesitated on Uruguay future because of fear that godin plays a part, suarez shouldn't either

Valverde has been on absolute fire lately, like you said he and betancur are the heartbeat and maybe one of best midfield duos in tournament on form, Nunez is really good too up top, if they kept the old guys out they can go far
 
I wouldnt bet on anything in the US England game until after the wales Iran game that morning

Us playstyle is probably different to start depending on a draw vs a wales (or iran but less so) win
 
I wouldnt bet on anything in the US England game until after the wales Iran game that morning

Us playstyle is probably different to start depending on a draw vs a wales (or iran but less so) win

Yeah I was saying earlier that wales has a huge advtange playing first. I think this might be a must win against England
 
Group C

Mexico - they did finish behind Canada in WC qualifying but I think generally speaking Mexico did not look very good throughout - they did not beat Canada or USA in any of the 4 games played. I’m not entirely sure what to say about this team except I feel like they need a refresh. Although they have a lot of depth and experience, I think the team is aging and not gracefully. I think the draw was fortunate for them and they end up advancing using that experience, as they always do. They won’t go further then that though.

Argentina - I am pretty surprised that they are only -250 favorites to win this group. They got the proverbial Mouse off their back but winning the Copa America. They also haven’t lost since the 2019 copa america final. Messi, after a tough first year at PSG, is coming back to his old form in year two by finding the perfect position for himself at his age. Despite previous years success, the recent success has to be related to finding a quality keeper for the first time in many years in Martinez. Despite all this good news, it appears they’ve lost Lo Celso for the World Cup a hamstring tear. Despite his club form, he is a critical piece for Argentina. Romero, also has missed the last few weeks with injury concerns. Still, this is a very complete team and clearly one of the favorites to win it all, and I expect them to float through the group stage.

Poland - every international tournament I hear about how Poland is a dark horse and to watch out. Oddsmakers agree and Poland is projected to finish second in this group. Every time I do watch Poland, the goal is to get the ball to lewandowski and hope he creates something. Lew can do this on Bayern and Barcelona and I feel when he is the one and only focal point on offense, he usually gets shut down. Although you may come to me and say hey lew has scored many goals in qualifying - my answer is against San Marino and Andorra. This team is getting old and I expect a usual flat performance from Poland as it appears they plan to play counter attack football this year.

Saudi Arabia - every player on Saudi Arabia also plays in Saudi Arabia. Despite that they had a great qualifying campaign and finished in first place. That said, as many of these Asians teams I just don’t know a ton other then to say they will probably sit back quite a bit at least initially. Saudi Arabia should get a boost from its fan, who undoubtedly will have many fans in Qatar

1 Argentina
2 Mexico
3 Poland
4 Saudi Arabia

Mouse off their back, that's a new one

I'm not convinced by the Mexico offense, don't think they can win a scoring battle with Lewandowski and Poland who are trying to get younger around him (still have old defenders).

Agree Argentina look like they don't have a serious challenger anywhere in here, not convinced Mexico defend well enough without the ball nor do i think they will be pragmatic enough to just try to stall out Argentina. Didn't work for CONMEBOL teams more used to parking the bus in qualifying, not sure Mexico can morph into that low block team all of a sudden in this competition.

No idea how anyone can believe in Saudi Arabia, they usually qualify but i can't really remember them ever being competitive.

Argentina gets off to a good start and then Mexico/Poland recognize they have their adversary in minutes. Part of me thinks that means each push for a victory, but I also think they see it as a "don't fuck this up" match and possibly get more conservative. I think that fits with an under lean I have on that one as I expect Poland can keep Mexico quiet (since Costa Rica did) and Tata likely has to worry about Lewy and Zielinski meaning they try to possess the ball and take the easy passes instead of the risky ones that can turn over. With that said, Lewy isn't a speed guy and i'm not sure anyone on Polska is a huge threat to run by everyone. Creativity around Lewy is always the problem
 
Mouse off their back, that's a new one

I'm not convinced by the Mexico offense, don't think they can win a scoring battle with Lewandowski and Poland who are trying to get younger around him (still have old defenders).

Agree Argentina look like they don't have a serious challenger anywhere in here, not convinced Mexico defend well enough without the ball nor do i think they will be pragmatic enough to just try to stall out Argentina. Didn't work for CONMEBOL teams more used to parking the bus in qualifying, not sure Mexico can morph into that low block team all of a sudden in this competition.

No idea how anyone can believe in Saudi Arabia, they usually qualify but i can't really remember them ever being competitive.

Argentina gets off to a good start and then Mexico/Poland recognize they have their adversary in minutes. Part of me thinks that means each push for a victory, but I also think they see it as a "don't fuck this up" match and possibly get more conservative. I think that fits with an under lean I have on that one as I expect Poland can keep Mexico quiet (since Costa Rica did) and Tata likely has to worry about Lewy and Zielinski meaning they try to possess the ball and take the easy passes instead of the risky ones that can turn over. With that said, Lewy isn't a speed guy and i'm not sure anyone on Polska is a huge threat to run by everyone. Creativity around Lewy is always the problem

If it’s not 100% obvious most of these where written on my phone!
 
I wouldnt bet on anything in the US England game until after the wales Iran game that morning

Us playstyle is probably different to start depending on a draw vs a wales (or iran but less so) win

Wales win doesn't mean so much since the US still has Iran left, doubt they all of a sudden change their gameplan in only hours and probably will still see a draw as a great point that Wales may not get vs ENG

i guess if it's like 4-0 Wales, but even then idk how much that changes
 
i just watched it, surprised Fox was so quick to offer the replay (though with like 6 commercials per half)

tons of offside and one bad 10' puts the most bet country in limbo. Love this game, though i still think they win the group and thought about adding -250 last night lol
 
i just watched it, surprised Fox was so quick to offer the replay (though with like 6 commercials per half)

tons of offside and one bad 10' puts the most bet country in limbo. Love this game, though i still think they win the group and thought about adding -250 last night lol
Mex/Pol ending 0-0 enhances a group win by a lot
 
Wales win doesn't mean so much since the US still has Iran left, doubt they all of a sudden change their gameplan in only hours and probably will still see a draw as a great point that Wales may not get vs ENG

i guess if it's like 4-0 Wales, but even then idk how much that changes
Welsh win means US cant lose to England

More likely to protect a draw if needed than go for a win

If wales win and US lose friday, wales and england can play for a draw and both go through
 
Southgate mentioned the USA pressure, don't think that changes either way results go especially since if berhalter knows anything it's that his team can't create goals passing the ball around the midfield

i also don't know who is willing to change their system much at all since none of these managers get any time with their players
 
Southgate mentioned the USA pressure, don't think that changes either way results go especially since if berhalter knows anything it's that his team can't create goals passing the ball around the midfield

i also don't know who is willing to change their system much at all since none of these managers get any time with their players
I think most just have two built in at least


Against teams they dont feel are an huge threat attacking, England play a back 4, all the way back to the euros last year. If they feel the team can hurt them, back 3 with wingbacks

Brazil will play fred as an extra midfielder against some teams and sacrifice vini or Richarlison, moving neymar to striker

For the US, if they go attacking maybe Reyna plays? Was kinda surprised he didnt g1 anyway
 
i agree that formation signals intentions, but i'm not sure how much changes game-to-game because they only have so much time to practice strategy (and changing it on the fly can cause big problems / national team managers only do it when they must cuz they're losing)

most of these people are such big believers in themselves since they've been doubted all their lives that they seem very stubborn to respect their opponent
 
alright people, is Belgium over the hill?

Canada didn't respect them one single bit, market doesn't seem to either considering a goalless draw made the market want to back Morocco
 
Some historical stats regarding how semi-final results reflected on the final result. 1986 was the first time the current WC format was instituted, so all the WC stats before that are irrelevant here.

(1) France won every knockout game in regulation, while Argentina needed extra-time (& more) to defeat 1 opponent.

In the 9 WC since 1986, 5 times one finalist won every knockout game in the reg. 90 while their opponent needed extra-time to win at least 1 knockout game. 4 of those former teams won the WC in the reg. 90 and the other lost it on penalties, meaning no team in France's position has ever lost a WC final in the reg. 90 to a team in Argentina's position vis-à-vis their respective knockout results.

(2) France won every knockout game in regulation while scoring a combined 7 goals in those games.

In the 9 WC since 1986, 7 teams have previously managed to win every knockout game in the reg. 90 mins while scoring a combined minimum of 5 goals: none of those 7 teams went on to lose the WC final in the reg. 90 mins. 5 won the final, while 2 lost it on penalties.

(3) Argentina conceded a combined 3 goals in its 3 knockout games, while France conceded 1 goal total.

No team which has conceded 3 (or more) goals in its 3 knockout games has ever won a final against an opponent who conceded less than 3 goals in their own 3 knockout games.

In 2010 the Netherlands conceded 4 knockout game goals to Spain's 0 headed into the final: Spain won on penalties (0-0 after 90)
In 1998 Brazil conceded 4 knockout game goals to France's 1 headed into the final: France won 3-0 in the reg. 90.
In 1994 Italy conceded 3 knockout game goals to Brazil's 2 headed into the final: Brazil won on penalties (0-0 after 90)

(4) France's knockout game goal-difference is +6 to Argentina's +4

In the 6 WC since 1986 where 1 semi-finalist had a superior GD over their final opponent (3 WC involved the two semi-finalists managing =GD), 5 times the team with the better GD has gone on to win the final. The one exception involved the team with the inferior GD playing the tournament on home soil (France, 1998).

(5) Argentina defeated Croatia (WR #12) in its semi-final, while France defeated Morocco (WR #22).

Fifa's official World Rankings began late in 1992. So, since the 1994 WC onwards, the team who defeated the higher ranking opponent during the semi-final stage has ended up winning the WC 6 times out of 7. The only team to fail to win the final after defeating a superior SF opponent was Brazil in 1998. It should be noted that the team Brazil lost to was playing that final on home soil (France). None of the other 6 occasions involved either finalist hosting the tournament.

(6) France won the 2018 WC final and has now made the 2022 final.

Since 1986 no team making the final off a WC win has managed to repeat.
- Argentina won in 1986, but lost the 1990 final in the reg. 90 mins while failing to score.
- Brazil won in 1994, but lost the 1998 final in the reg. 90 mins while failing to score.

Have to say, the Argies in '90 are the worst 'good' team to ever make a final. They scored - wait for it - all of 2 combined goals in their 3 knockout matches. The only team ever to do worse in making a final? You guess it, Argentina (2014, 1 goal).



So, the specific in-game performance stats over the knockout games for these respective finalists all point to France winning based on historical trends. But the wider view trends point to Argentina. Weight each how you will.
 
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Of the 17 WC completed so far to feature a format involving 2 x semi-finals then a 3/4 playoff then a final, none have ever seen all of their last four games fail to produce at least one 1h draw.

2 semis and a 3/4 playoff completed so far in this WC, and not only have none featured a drawn 1st half, but all have seen the fave lead at h/t & win su.
 
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All 5 who were too ill to train for France Friday did train Saturday but there is a real virus surrounding the team and those who have been sick are all defensemen. Tough to see them suddenly be at full strength suddenly. According to what I've seen is they're symptoms have them all pretty roughed up.
 
Actually one is Coman but he doesn't feature anyway but the others are significant

Rabiot, Upamecano, Varane, Konate all got the bug
 
So as I read it, the protesters are pissed that the final will be in Melbourne regardless and they're pissed that it isn't practical for most of the country?

So they just randomly decide to go batshit crazy in a Melbourne City/Melbourne FC match? Guessing that protest didn't do them any favors.
They lost their shit when the opposing keeper threw a flare straight back into the crowd, which was mind-numbingly stupid thing to do. But that their shit was there to be lost, was because of the final relocation.
 
They lost their shit when the opposing keeper threw a flare straight back into the crowd, which was mind-numbingly stupid thing to do. But that their shit was there to be lost, was because of the final relocation.
Sounds like the crowd mob was just begging for a reason to pounce and succeeded
 
Yeah, a Melbourne derby crowd doesn't need much reason be get unruly at the best of times. Realistically, just a bunch of wannabes vis-à-vis your typical historical English football hooligan behaviour.
 
Yeah, a Melbourne derby crowd doesn't need much reason be get unruly at the best of times. Realistically, just a bunch of wannabes vis-à-vis your typical historical English football hooligan behaviour.
You know the Motherland is beaming with pride today
 
Benzema basically flipped the bird at Macron, staying home instead of flying and hanging out in a suite with him

That guy needs drama to succeed
 
Lineups should be out in the next 15-20 minutes, really curious who French trot out there in the back
 
I have one of my largest wagers ever here on Argentina because supposedly Messi is the goat, France isn’t a deserving country of successes in my opinion, and what my eyes I’ve showed me. Plus the FIL passed away before the tournament started and born and lived in Argentina half the time.

Let’s go!
 
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