Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-2
Review: Howard sinks one, the last basket of the game with 46 seconds left, and my Un goes Ov by 1'.
Sometimes life be that way.
WNBA Championship Play
“Give me Liberty or give me Death!”
Patrick Henry
“Give me the Liberty or give me . . . the Lynx?”
RBD
Here's how I'm playing it this post season.
Eight teams make the playoffs but realistically only four of them have a chance.
Let’s do the easy work first and eliminate the bottom feeders.
Atlanta (15-25) and Phoenix (19-21) have zero chance.
Two down, six to go.
Next up, the Indiana Caitlin’s (odds +1500.)
I wish they had a realistic chance (and the networks do, too) but they don't.
Clark certainly did make it an exciting season and the league owes her a HUGE debt of gratitude for all the sellouts across the country and increased revenue from merchandising and commercial advertising sales. But everyone knows defense wins in the postseason and out of 12 teams in the league only one team has given up more PPG than Indiana, the Dallas Wings (9 wins, 31 losses.)
Out of eight teams in the playoffs the Clark's have the worst PPG defense, which is why the finished the reg season at 20-20.
They were hot down the stretch, but the Fever has subsided.
Which brings us to the fifth place Seattle Storm (+2500.)
A solid record at 25-15 as of this writing but they’re just 4-10 vs the top four contenders. In a money game on the second to last day of the season they had a chance to move up in the standings by beating the team that was one game ahead of them, Las Vegas.
They lost that game.
Just like they’re going to lose in the playoffs.
Thus, squelch the Storm.
And then there were four.
Only four teams enter the post season with a realistic chance of winning.
According to the odds makers, the Las Vegas Aces (+250) are the second choice to repeat and win this season’s championship trophy.
According to me they’re not going to even make it to the championship series.
In the playoffs, you have to hold on to your home court advantage and while Las Vegas looks solid at 12-7 their opponents are better.
Connecticut came in at 13-5, and Minnesota and New York, were both 16-3.
Plus, the defending champs haven’t fared so well against the other three top contenders.
Las Vegas is 4-6 vs the top three teams.
The only team they have a winning record against is Connecticut, and they’re not going to see Connecticut because the Sun will be knocked out by the Liberty.
They WILL very likely see Minnesota, who they are 1-3 against, with
all three losses coming by double digits.
Las Vegas may get past Seattle in round one but I see them getting KO’d in round two vs. Minnesota.
The Aces will be cracked.
Next up, the Connecticut Sun (+1000.)
They can defend home court, 13-5. They can win on the road, 14-6. But head to head against top contenders their weaknesses show.
They have the best defense in the league, and they do match up well with Minnesota, but they’re not going to see Minnesota.
To do so they’d have to get past New York, who they’re 1-3 against this year.
To my way of handicapping, the Sun just don’t have the heart required to win it all, an opinion formed by remembering them folding in the fourth quarter of a couple big games this season.
Blot out the Sun.
And then there were two.
I see the championship series as being between the Minnesota Lynx (+300) and the New York Liberty (+140.)
But who comes out on top?
I’m leaning towards the New York Liberty but their loss to Minnesota in the Commissioner’s Cup game deserves much 'capping consideration.
The playoffs bring the opportunity for additional cash. They’re all about who’s going to step up when the money’s on the table.
The Commissioner’s Cup game was worth $40,000 per player to the winner. And in it, the Lynx kicked Liberty butt. In New York.
Head to head in the regular season Minnesota also had the edge, taking three of four games; more numbers in favor of the Lynx.
But if 'capping was merely a matter of correctly reading the numbers more bettors would win. Most don’t.
So it’s intangibles that allow a team to finish on top of the mountain. Intangibles like heart and hunger.
There are four different components you need to win the championship.
The ability to hold on to home court advantage, the ability to win on the road, and heart and hunger.
I only see one team that has every one of those – the New York Liberty.
They have the best record overall.
They’re tied with Minnesota for the best home record.
They have the best road record.
As to heart and hunger, it’s their 3-0 season sweep over Las Vegas that has me convinced this is the Liberty’s year.
In last year’s championship series New York lost to Vegas.
Watching those three games this season I saw a team with a chip on their shoulder, a team determined to prove they’re the best.
I saw heart and hunger.
And I grade the hunger factor very highly in my handicapping.
There’s always a chance that the reigning champs from Las Vegas will step up their game in the playoffs and show their championship form.
And the Lynx enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league and have that 3-1 regular season edge over New York as a cause for concern, not to mention their win in the Commissioner’s Cup. But New York has a much deeper bench and they have that look of destiny about them. And hunger.
And I rate hunger very highly . . .
I may have some plays for individual games during the postseason, but strategically, for the championship series, I’m looking to lock up a small profit.
I’m putting one unit on both of my choices, NY at +140 and Minnesota at +300.
Eliminating the four lower tier teams leaves me with the top four.
Connecticut has no heart, and last year’s champs, Las Vegas, seem to be lacking hunger.
Placing a unit on both of the other two leaves me with what I see as a 50/50 chance among the only four teams capable of winning.
And a strong opportunity for adding a little bit more to my bankroll.
Championship Plays:
Minnesota +300
NY +140
