WNBA 2025

[RBD]

Record: 0-0

NBA kind of bores me (although last night's Ind/NY game was a good one to watch, in part because I don't like any of the New York teams and I enjoyed watching the Knicks blow an important game they should have won) but I find the WNBA interesting, in a train wreck kind of way.

Example - I saw Kelsey and the Sparks put up a 7 point 3rd quarter last night.
Yes, seven, as in one-fewer-than-eight.
They followed that with a 33 point 4th.
A 7, followed by a 33.
Welcome to the WNBA.

Can you see a similar disparity of quality play in the NBA?
Sure, maybe not as ridiculous, but close.
But here's the thing of it, for me anyway - I expect more from the NBA, they're supposed to be professional athletes. I have no such misconceptions about the WNBA, so when they have a shot clock violation turnover TWO PLAYS IN A ROW it's not irritating, it's amusing (unless I have the Over.)

When I have money on an NBA game I have no tolerance for amateurish play (like taking a two-point shot when you're down by three with only four seconds left on the game clock - I'm talking to you Kelsey Plum.) So the WNBA amuses me and I enjoy watching it more than the pros.

Too early in the season for me to have any data accumulated on my handicapping models to steer me in a strong direction for a side or total, but I have a slight edge on both tonight based on my numbers, and I want action so I'lI start with some small $ bets.

There's only two games on the schedule tonight Ind/Atl and NY/Chi, and only one of them is televised.
Guess which one.
Yep, it's the Caitlin's. OF COURSE.
They won their first game against the Chicago Bullies, then lost their second game against what appears to be a very mediocre Atlanta Dream team.

Tonight they're -4' Rd Favs with a total of 173'.
Layin' 4 and the hook on the road is giving a little too much respect to the Caitlin's if you ask me, but I'll bite and lay the wood.

And I bought the total too (what the hell, if you're tossing darts and having fun, why throw just a single one?)
Each team has only played two games so the data hasn't got much value but . . .
Atlanta is averaging 90.5 PPG, making them the number four offense in the league.
And they're surrendering 92 PPG, making them the second worst defense in the league.
Indiana is only giving up an average of 74.5.

Got to start somewhere, why not tonight?

Pacers -4'
Ind/Atl Un 173'

 

[KJ]

No need to qualify any sport

I'm trying to make it a point to watch more WNBA and MLS this season and I've despised the notion in the past. Helps that half the family are Hawkeye fans so it's something a very female dominated family can identify with when I want to talk sports, but it's going to be a lengthy work in progress. Fwiw it's an infinitely better product than it was even three years ago (the last time I watched a game before a few minutes of a game this weekend). Kinda the same with MLS, taking the Euro guys as they approach retirement has at least brought some drama to that league.

Don't have it in me to bet it just yet but I'll at least be paying attention fbow. Good luck on stuff going forward.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff.

Definitely softer markets at times in the WNBA.

I'll be involved here and there -- as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Record: 0-0

NBA kind of bores me (although last night's Ind/NY game was a good one to watch, in part because I don't like any of the New York teams and I enjoyed watching the Knicks blow an important game they should have won) but I find the WNBA interesting, in a train wreck kind of way.

Example - I saw Kelsey and the Sparks put up a 7 point 3rd quarter last night.
Yes, seven, as in one-fewer-than-eight.
They followed that with a 33 point 4th.
A 7, followed by a 33.
Welcome to the WNBA.

Can you see a similar disparity of quality play in the NBA?
Sure, maybe not as ridiculous, but close.
But here's the thing of it, for me anyway - I expect more from the NBA, they're supposed to be professional athletes. I have no such misconceptions about the WNBA, so when they have a shot clock violation turnover TWO PLAYS IN A ROW it's not irritating, it's amusing (unless I have the Over.)

When I have money on an NBA game I have no tolerance for amateurish play (like taking a two-point shot when you're down by three with only four seconds left on the game clock - I'm talking to you Kelsey Plum.) So the WNBA amuses me and I enjoy watching it more than the pros.

Too early in the season for me to have any data accumulated on my handicapping models to steer me in a strong direction for a side or total, but I have a slight edge on both tonight based on my numbers, and I want action so I'lI start with some small $ bets.

There's only two games on the schedule tonight Ind/Atl and NY/Chi, and only one of them is televised.
Guess which one.
Yep, it's the Caitlin's. OF COURSE.
They won their first game against the Chicago Bullies, then lost their second game against what appears to be a very mediocre Atlanta Dream team.

Tonight they're -4' Rd Favs with a total of 173'.
Layin' 4 and the hook on the road is giving a little too much respect to the Caitlin's if you ask me, but I'll bite and lay the wood.

And I bought the total too (what the hell, if you're tossing darts and having fun, why throw just a single one?)
Each team has only played two games so the data hasn't got much value but . . .
Atlanta is averaging 90.5 PPG, making them the number four offense in the league.
And they're surrendering 92 PPG, making them the second worst defense in the league.
Indiana is only giving up an average of 74.5.

Got to start somewhere, why not tonight?

Pacers -4'
Ind/Atl Un 173'

Great work!!

Take that front door cover and run! .

Under was just great capping!

Salute.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 2-0
Review: I thought that number, -4', was showing a little too much respect for Indiana on the Rd and my opinion was accurate. I barely slid by with a win by the hook, needing Sophie Cunningham to hit a free throw with 5 seconds left in the game The Under was a little easier.

I bought a side in the Wash/Phx game but before I get to that I want to share some numbers on a situational spot that I tracked last season.

WNBA teams don't play a lot of back-to-back games but when they do the record for the Over in the second game in 2024 was 17-6.
That's a 74% situational spot to play ON.
(That record may differ from others you might see, it's all dependent upon what line was used - the opener or the closing number.)

It's important to remember - In handicapping, what worked one season may not work the next season. But you sure as hell want to be aware of it when you doing your handicapping in the current year.

As with all my methods I also tracked a few subsystems, plays within the play, to see if I can improve on the W percentage and uncover a stronger situational spot to play on.
Here are some more numbers to consider if you're 'capping the WNBA this year:

Sequence
Obviously, teams play differently at home than on the road.
Where they're playing affects their PPG on offense and defense.
And some teams don't travel well.
This subset breaks the numbers down to factor in the sequence of where the games were played, a home game preceded by a home game the night before, a Road game after playing at Hm the night before, etc.
Here's the breakdown:

Hm/Hm 4-1
Hm/Rd 5-2
Rd/Rd 4-3
Rd/Hm 4-0

All spots have winning records but teams playing back-to-back Road games are only one game away from not being profitable.
Just something to keep in mind this season.

Day of the Week
Most days have the same feel to them, but not all.
Friday nights may benefit from a higher energy crowd.
NOBODY likes to go to work on Monday and some sports teams are no different.
And, when you play most of your games on evenings during the week, Saturday and Sunday early games have a different feel to them, different atmosphere and different outcomes for some teams.

I track those four days and here's what I have:
Friday 4-0
Saturday 2-1
Sunday 8-3
Monday 0-1

Factor in days of the week or not, it's up to the individual 'capper.
But for me, I like to have as much information as possible at hand when I'm deciding whether to buy a play or not.


I'm sharing this information because today we have the first game that qualifies for this situational spot:
Con at Atl

The Dream played last night. At home vs Dallas.
They're home today which puts them in the H-H sequence.
Last night's game stayed Under by 11 points.
(Somewhere in my notes I have the record for game two of B2B's broken down into whether game one was an Under or Over, but I have to hunt through my notes to find it. Top of my head I think the stronger play is when game one was an Over. I'll drop by with the record after I dig it up.)

Atlanta was 0-0 in this spot last season (yes, in addition to the league based records I also track the records based on how individual teams perform when they're in this spot. ALWAYS looking for an edge, anywhere I can find it.)

Today's game opened 159 and is down to 157'.
There's extra juice on the Over and I'm not expecting the number to get any better so if anyone likes the Over they should grab it now.

The game doesn't fit any of the three different models I use for handicapping totals so I'm strictly playing this one based on last year's performance. Yes, as I said, what worked one season may not work the next but this spot was good to me last year so I'll take a chance and ride it the first time it's in play this season.

The Sun are offensively challenged, third worse offense in the league.
Fortunately they suck on defense too, they're also the third worst defense in the league.
I'm going to need Atlanta to surpass their team total and get most of the scoring done for me today.

Also . . .
I have two different 'capping models for trying to determine where the books made the wrong team the Fav (WF1 and WF2, just for record keeping and referral purposes. I have to call them something.)
WF1 says Phoenix and LV are Wrong Favs today.
WF1 is 5-6 on the season, 3-2 at home, 1-4 on the Rd.
Seattle's at home, Washington's on the road.
I'll ride the stronger number (1-4) and Fade the Mystics.
The line opened -7, now down to -4 (too much respect for Washington, I think.)

My buys:
Con/Atl Ov 157'
Phx - (I'm waiting to buy this one, the number is moving in my favor and there's 6 hours left before tip off. I'll wait a little longer to see if I can get it down a hook or more, but won't wait too long in case people that took the +7 look to get a buy back, angling for a middle.)

Update: posted the write up above, went to check the lines and I see buy backs already started, 4/4' now, so I bought the -4

Update #2: Lines moving quickly this morning (doesn't help when you have a loooong write up.) 157' is gone, so is -4, so I'll use 159 and -4' here, lines that are still readily available.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-1
Review: Missed with the first "B2B Gm 2 Play Over" play of the season. Got it back with the late game on Phoenix.

Just a heads up in case anyone is looking at New York/Washington. The Liberty played last night at Home.
The post above this one has records for these B2B spots when they happen on a Friday night, and when it's a Road game after a home game.

For anyone looking for something more team specific, NY was in this spot three times last season. All three games went Over.

Atlanta is in the same spot as Phoenix was when I used them vs the Mystic last time I was in.
The 2025 record for this play when it's a Rd team is 2-5, a solid Fade thus far so I'm buying it.

Sea -4'

 

[KJ]

Pissed I didn't just unload on Washington Wed night against Indiana. Fever were 4.5 faves w/o Kaitlin. There is a really soft market in this sport for sure.

 

[skanless13]

Sun for me tonight. Line seems a bit high

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-2
Review: Seattle not only couldn't hold on to the 4th quarter lead and get me a cover at home, they ended up losing SU.
This team is soft.
Next!

Do teams play harder with extra incentive?
Yes (or they're supposed to and should anyway.)
Is a 40K bonus per player an added incentive?
Yes, 40k is a lot, even if you're an obscenely overpaid professional athlete (and no, I don't side with the owners in that debate either.)
But if you're in a league like the WNBA where the average salary is $130k then a 40K bonus is HUGE.
And that's approximately what each player will get if they're on the team that wins the Commissioner's Cup.
So do the WNBA players look at and approach CC games a little differently?
Yeah. It's human nature.

The tiebreaker for home court advantage in the CC championship game is based on a point differential.
Can this have an effect on the ATS outcome of CC games? Possibly.
Let’s say the home team is a -6′ Fav and is winning by 6 points with only a minute left on the clock. In a normal game, scoring would now be secondary to using up as much time on the game clock as possible.
BUT if point differentials matter it's possible that some teams will keep trying to score to the very end.
In the scenario above, it could turn a game from a loser ATS to a winner.
I’m not saying it’s a fact that the point differential tiebreaker has an effect on final scores; I’m simply offering it as food for thought.
But here is a fact:
In 2024, Commissioner’s Cup Favorites had a record of 19-11.

That’s 63%.
That’s an exploitable edge.
Coincidence?
Fluke? (also, a great book by Christopher Moore.)
I don’t know.
But certainly, something to keep in mind in 2025.

Here are a few more things to keep in mind if you're going to bet the CC games.

DD (Double Digit) Favs of 10 or greater in 2024 CC play were 4-1 ATS at Hm, 0-1 on the Rd.

Five of those six games went Over.

4-1 on DD Hm Favs and 5-1 to the Over are certainly worth keeping an eye on in this year's CC. So is 0-1 for a possible Fade on DD Rd teams.

CC 2025 play began on June 1.
There have been two DD Favs, one at home, one on the road.
The home team (NY) covered.
Like last year, the DD Rd team (Min) did not.
The New York game stayed Under (because the offensively challenged Sun only scored 52. Yes, 52. The Liberty almost doubled that, putting up 100 all by themselves.)
The Minnesota game went Over.

There are two DD Favs tonight, both at Hm.
The lines on the Favs and totals in both games have all gone higher since the opening numbers were put out. As a general rule I usually avoid buying a game when the lines moved against me by a couple of points. Unfortunately I didn't crunch numbers on the Commissioner's Cup games until yesterday, too late to take advantage of opening odds, so I'll bend my rule and play the early game tonight.
If it wins I'll bank it, if it loses I may add a play on the late game.

Min -12',
Phx/Min Ov 158

Good luck to any of you who are playing WNBA Commissioner's Cup games this year.

 

[KJ]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-2
Review: Seattle not only couldn't hold on to the 4th quarter lead and get me a cover at home, they ended up losing SU.
This team is soft.
Next!

Do teams play harder with extra incentive?
Yes (or they're supposed to and should anyway.)
Is a 40K bonus per player an added incentive?
Yes, 40k is a lot, even if you're an obscenely overpaid professional athlete (and no, I don't side with the owners in that debate either.)
But if you're in a league like the WNBA where the average salary is $130k then a 40K bonus is HUGE.
And that's approximately what each player will get if they're on the team that wins the Commissioner's Cup.
So do the WNBA players look at and approach CC games a little differently?
Yeah. It's human nature.

The tiebreaker for home court advantage in the CC championship game is based on a point differential.
Can this have an effect on the ATS outcome of CC games? Possibly.
Let’s say the home team is a -6′ Fav and is winning by 6 points with only a minute left on the clock. In a normal game, scoring would now be secondary to using up as much time on the game clock as possible.
BUT if point differentials matter it's possible that some teams will keep trying to score to the very end.
In the scenario above, it could turn a game from a loser ATS to a winner.
I’m not saying it’s a fact that the point differential tiebreaker has an effect on final scores; I’m simply offering it as food for thought.
But here is a fact:
In 2024, Commissioner’s Cup Favorites had a record of 19-11.

That’s 63%.
That’s an exploitable edge.
Coincidence?
Fluke? (also, a great book by Christopher Moore.)
I don’t know.
But certainly, something to keep in mind in 2025.

Here are a few more things to keep in mind if you're going to bet the CC games.

DD (Double Digit) Favs of 10 or greater in 2024 CC play were 4-1 ATS at Hm, 0-1 on the Rd.

Five of those six games went Over.

4-1 on DD Hm Favs and 5-1 to the Over are certainly worth keeping an eye on in this year's CC. So is 0-1 for a possible Fade on DD Rd teams.

CC 2025 play began on June 1.
There have been two DD Favs, one at home, one on the road.
The home team (NY) covered.
Like last year, the DD Rd team (Min) did not.
The New York game stayed Under (because the offensively challenged Sun only scored 52. Yes, 52. The Liberty almost doubled that, putting up 100 all by themselves.)
The Minnesota game went Over.

There are two DD Favs tonight, both at Hm.
The lines on the Favs and totals in both games have all gone higher since the opening numbers were put out. As a general rule I usually avoid buying a game when the lines moved against me by a couple of points. Unfortunately I didn't crunch numbers on the Commissioner's Cup games until yesterday, too late to take advantage of opening odds, so I'll bend my rule and play the early game tonight.
If it wins I'll bank it, if it loses I may add a play on the late game.

Min -12',
Phx/Min Ov 158

Good luck to any of you who are playing WNBA Commissioner's Cup games this year.

Man I love reading your write ups and I also love heart attacks

 

[RBD]

Thanks B.A.R and KJ.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 4-3

Got a split with my last picks, hit the side, missed the total.

No games on the schedule today but here's something to consider for tomorrow:
NY is a DD Rd Fav, -12' (and likely to go higher) at Washington.

Commissioner's Cup last season, DD Rd Favs were 0-1 ATS.
This year, they are 0-1 ATS.
So, Fade NY in this spot, yes?
BUT . . .
The Liberty have been DD Favs four times this season.
They are 3-1 ATS.
And . . .
NY already beat Washington by 22 points in the first meeting this season so bettors might look at that score and think 12' isn't too difficult to cover.
And it shouldn't be.
But . . .
NY beat GS by 28 in their first meeting this year as 18' pt Favs.
In their second game vs the Valkyries the Liberty were losing SU late into the fourth quarter, before escaping with a 5 pt W.
The moral of that story is - game one results don't ensure similar results in game two.

With only two games on the card tomorrow I'm not sure I'll have anything but will post if I do.

 

[RBD]

Record: 4-3

I've got a couple of stats backing a play on the Golden State Valkaries today (And how cool is the name Valkyries for a women's sports team? Extremely cool, ultra-cool, Charlie Watts level cool.)

First up, GS is a Double Digit Dog.
Overall this season during Commissioner's Cup play Double Digit Favs are just 3-4 ATS.

But it becomes an even more profitable and playable Fade when the DD Favs are on the Rd.

During Commissioner's Cup play, Double Digit Rd Favs were 0-1 last season.

This season there have been three Double Digit Rd Favs thus far in the Commissioner's Cup.
ALL THREE have failed to cover the spread, including last night's game where Atlanta went into Connecticut as 11-point Favs and lost SU 76-84.

That makes the 2-year total on this spot 0-4.

The LV Aces are 4-2 SU on the season, 3-3 ATS.
They have been a Double Digit Fav twice and are 1-1.
Both games were at home, they're on the road tonight.

The Golden State Valkyries are just 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS.
They've been Double Digit Dogs four times already this season, in just seven games, BUT they're 3-1 ATS in those four.

So I've got two spots that say take GS tonight, the league-based trend that says to play AGAINST DD Favs on the Rd, and the team-specific trend that says the Valkyries are a value play when getting 10 or more points.

Looks good for a Valkyrie buy, right?
I was all ready to put in my play but then I finished my morning handicapping and I saw that GS also fits a play that's been a solid Fade for me across all sports over the past year.
It's rare, this is only the second time this season I've had an WNBA game qualify.
Back on Tuesday May 27th Connecticut qualified as the Fade.
They lost by 22 points.

So I've got a conflict on the game, a league base trend AND a team-based trend that say take the Double Digit Dog, but the play that's been the most profitable for me across all sports over the last 12 months says take the Fav.

So what am I going to do?
I'm going to do what every bettor should do when undecided - look elsewhere. (Sometimes you set aside common sense and make a bet anyway just because you want some action/fun on a game. LV/GS is not one of those games, for me.)
Instead, I'll look for a prop bet.

The books hung a 13' on Gabby tonight.
In her first game against Phoenix, Seattle's first game of the season, she only scored four points.
In Seattle's second meeting with Phoenix she only put up 11 on just four of nine FG and 3 of 7 on three pointers.
But she's on a roll lately, scoring 20, 14, 20, 18 in her last four games.

Alyssa Thomas played for Phoenix in their last meeting with Seattle but she's out tonight, joining Copper, McConnell and Mack on the injury list. Williams should find it a little bit easier to score against the current Mercury lineup.

My play:
Gabby W. Ov 13' pts, -120

 

[RBD]

NBA record 0-0

In the post above I started to do a write-up on a play for the NBA game tonight instead of the WNBA. But somehow I lost it.
F'er just disappeared on me after I switched sites to check a stat. Came back, it was gone.
Pissed off, I went with the Williams bet above instead.
But . . .
There's that old adage that says, "You should never change your original answer on a test" and I think this carries over into sports betting also.
So . . .
The Thunder have to be pissed off after the way they self-immolated in game one.
So the question is how will they come out in Q1 of Gm 2?
Coming into the championship series they've only lost four games.
How did they fare in Q1 after those losses?
They won three of four, by scores of 24, 9, and 7.
So it appears they come out ready to play.

Indiana stole game one at Cleveland.
They came back and lost Q1 in Gm 2 by 17 pts.
They stole game one at New York.
They lost Q1 in Gm 2 by two pnts.

Overall OKC has covered the spread in tonight's first quarter (-4') in 8 of 12 playoff games.

My play:
OKC -4', -112, Q1 (corrected from Indiana)

 

[lvmike32]

NBA record 0-0

In the post above I started to do a write-up on a play for the NBA game tonight instead of the WNBA. But somehow I lost it.
F'er just disappeared on me after I switched sites to check a stat. Came back, it was gone.
Pissed off, I went with the Williams bet above instead.
But . . .
There's that old adage that says, "You should never change your original answer on a test" and I think this carries over into sports betting also.
So . . .
The Thunder have to be pissed off after the way they self-immolated in game one.
So the question is how will they come out in Q1 of Gm 2?
Coming into the championship series they've only lost four games.
How did they fare in Q1 after those losses?
They won three of four, by scores of 24, 9, and 7.
So it appears they come out ready to play.

Indiana stole game one at Cleveland.
They came back and lost Q1 in Gm 2 by 17 pts.
They stole game one at New York.
They lost Q1 in Gm 2 by two pnts.

Overall OKC has covered the spread in tonight's first quarter (-4') in 8 of 12 playoff games.

My play:
Ind -4', -112, Q1

Isn't Indiana the dog +4.5? Also, game is tomorrow night.

 

[RBD]

LVM,
Thanks for picking me up on the mistakes.
Busy morning, rushed while looking at today's WNBA, CFL, Belmont, boxing tonight, UFL for tomorrow and yes, as you said, NBA tomorrow too, before running the usual Saturday morning type errands.
I'll edit the above, again thanks.

 

[lvmike32]

LVM,
Thanks for picking me up on the mistakes.
Busy morning, rushed while looking at today's WNBA, CFL, Belmont, boxing tonight, UFL for tomorrow and yes, as you said, NBA tomorrow too, before running the usual Saturday morning type errands.
I'll edit the above, again thanks.

No worries. I was 99% sure u were on okc based on ur writeup but just wanted to be sure. Eager to follow and see if u can beat wnba. Ive actually never found anyone who beats it consistently which surprises me

 

[RBD]

"Eager to follow and see if u can beat wnba."

Me too.

I beat it in my short time here last season, finishing at 7-5.
All WNBA plays last year I was 28-22, 56%, for the regular season. (Can't find my postseason notes but I know I squeezed out a small profit because I had New York to win it all, hedged a little on Minnesota. Pretty sure I shared that stuff here, too.)
Doing okay this season, just trying to keep my head above water while I gather some data to use.

My goals are a little bit different than many (most?) bettors:

Goal Number One: Do Not Lose Money

A lot of people read that and think, "What kind of goal is that??!!"
It's a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
Estimates have it as high as 98%!
I ran a sports book on the Vegas strip.
I had access to the database. I know 98% is accurate.
So, as the physicians’ creed goes, “Primum non nocere” translation “First, do no harm” – in this case, to my bankroll.

If I don’t play to win money, then why bet?
I didn’t say I don’t play to win, I said it’s not my first goal. Which leads to . . .

Goal Number Two: Finish the Season with a Profit. ANY profit.

Goal Number Three: The Grail, 67%
In any endeavor in life you should always have a goal that’s difficult to reach, one you have to work hard at to achieve. A win percentage of 67% is a lofty goal when you consider that 98% of bettors can’t hit 53%.

Goal Number Four – HAVE FUN.

And I always have fun.
I like crunching numbers. My morning 'capping session is one of my favorite parts of the day.
I like tracking data.
I like hunting for situational spots that have a winning percentage I can bet on, or a losing percentage I can Fade.
I even have fun when I lose. Not all the time (and obviously not as much fun as when I win) but sometimes, because I enjoy yelling at my TV, it's entertaining, and maybe a stress release, like riding a bike, playing my bass, fishing, etc.
I like the chess game aspect of 'capping, me against the books, can I beat their numbers?

Anyway... back to 'capping.
Just an update on some stats for anyone looking at the Minnesota game today.
After GS won SU last night, Commissioner's Cup Double Digit Favs are now:
Overall 2-5
Rd 0-4
Ov 4-3

I only saw one DD Rd Fav LY, they didn't cover either which makes the 2-year total 0-5.
Something to keep in mind if you're looking at the Lynx today as they're DD Rd Favs.

The numbers above are league-based, encompassing all teams. If anyone wants something more team specific:
Min is 1-1 as DD Favs this tournament.
Hm 1-0 (vs Phx on 6/3)
Rd 0-1 (vs GS on 6/1)
(BTW, after last night GS is now 4-1 ATS when getting 10 or >.)

More team specific stuff - Wash was a DD Dog once so far in the tournament. On June 5th they lost SU but covered ATS vs the Liberty.

I didn't buy anything on the game yet, probably won't. Minnesota is the best team in the league, not sure I want to Fade them even with the favorable stats listed above.
Then again, they are 1-4 as DD Favs, tournament games and non-tournament games, so who knows, maybe I'll change my mind. I'm going to take a look at some prop numbers for both games today, see if there's anything I like.
Just stopped by to shares some information in case anyone's looking for angles on the Min/Wash game.

Correction: Minnesota played Dallas not Washington.

 

[RBD]

Recap:
WNBA 1-0
NBA 1-0

Record:
WNBA 5-3
NBA 1-0

Review:
Had W's with Gabby Ov 13' (she scored 21) and OKC Q1 -4' (they won by 6; I think I got lucky with a last second bucket to end the Q if I remember correctly.)

In an earlier post I was talking about CC DD Favs (Commissioner's Cup Double Digit Favs.)

Here's an update on the numbers:
All games 6-6 ATS, Overs 5-7.

A slight advantage on Unders but really no edges to possibly exploit, right?

But as a handicapper you have to dig deeper. You have to track subsets looking for something that might be worth betting on.

Here's a look at a subset based on Hm/Rd.
Hm 5-1 ATS
Rd 1-5 ATS
Hm Ov 1-5
Rd Ov 4-2

Well look at that.
The spot goes from NO edges to an edge in FOUR different categories:
Play ON CC DD Hm Favs
Fade CC DD Rd Favs
Play Un when it's a Hm team
Play Ov when it's a Rd team

Dropped by with this update because two games qualify tonight,
Ind at Hm vs Con and Min at Hm vs LV.

Indiana has not been in the spot this season.
Minnesota has been in this spot four times, record 3-1, three W's at Hm, 1 L as Rd Fav.

Asking the Caitlin's to cover by 18 might be asking too much. They're coming off a big win against previously undefeated best-team-in-the-league New York, how do they get it up for this game against the worst team in the league? (Viagra ain't gonna help. Griner maybe, but she plays for Atlanta.)
(And yes, technically Dallas has a worse record but I think Connecticut is the worst team right now. And the Wings did beat the Sun this season, SU.)

Unders are 1-5 in CC DD Hm Fav games.
I'm going to take a closer look at those.

The number on the Con/Ind game is 166.
At home, the Caitlin's have gone Over in four of six games.
On the road, the Sun have gone Over in three of five games.

Four of ten Connecticut games have gone Over tonight's number, and four of ten Indiana games have gone Over tonight's number.

I think the Clarksville Crew will be a little flat tonight. And Caitlin herself has to come down - hard to imagine her topping her performance in her first game back from injuries when she put up a season high 32 vs NY, including 7-14 from three point range.

This game features the fourth best defense in the league against the league's worst offense. On any given night the Sun can be held to 55-65 points. If the Indiana D can hold them to that at home tonight the Caitlins would have to put up a hundred for the game to go Over.
I'll chance that 100+ not happening.

My play:
Con/Ind Un 166

Half time Update:
On pace to go over by 6 + points.
Need Indiana to pull ahead by enough points so that the last minute or two is a slow pace/shot clock being used up. Right now they're only up by eight, need them to double that.

Q3 Update:
A 13 pt Q3 from the Sun and a total Q3 of 34 pts combined gets me back on the pace I need to be on.
Total after 3 Q's sits at 120, meaning they need a 47 pt Q4 to beat me (first 3 Q's were 47, 39, and 34.)
Indiana is up by 16, if they can keep the lead that size or more I should get a slow paced final two minutes to help me out.

Regardless of the outcome I could have done a better job at 'capping tonight. I had two games where I liked edges for the Under. I took the Indiana game instead of the Minnesota game.
Indiana has never been in this spot before, Minnesota was in it three times, with a 2-1 record on Unders.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: WNBA 6-3
Review: Last time in I had Con/Ind Un 166.
At halftime they were on a pace to go Over but the Sun bailed me out with a 13-point Q3.
Game landed on 159.

I have a play tonight and it also uses Connecticut Under in a Rd game (it's just a coincidence, I don't play only Sun Rd games to go Under, although that wouldn't be a bad idea since they're 2-5 Ov/Un this season when they're on the Rd.)

Here are some of the reasons I bought this play.

In the post above I shared some stats on DD Favs during the Commissioner's Cup.
When the Cup games ended I decided to look at DD Favs for the entire season, pre and post CC.
Here are the numbers, ATS and on the Over:

DD Favs Pre CC:
4-6 ATS
Subcategory Hm/Rd
Hm 2-6 Rd 2-0
Ov 3-7
Hm 2-6, Rd 1-1

DD Favs CC Games:
7-7 ATS
Hm 6-2, Rd 1-5
Ov 5-9
Hm 1-7, Rd 4-2

Combined:
11-13 ATS
Hm 8-8, Rd 3-5
Ov 8-16
Hm 3-13, Rd 5-3

Looks like there are some pretty good spots to take advantage of.
For example, on totals, it's a 67% Fade on the Over, at 16-8.
And it's even better Fading home teams on the Over at 13-3.

But, remember, jumping on trends is usually not a way to consistently win at sports betting (although it's a method that a large number of bettors seem to use) because of that little thing known as Reversion Toward the Mean.
If you've been riding a trend and banked a few units already then ride it until it bucks you.
But jumping on one that's already established usually doesn't work.
It's better to anticipate a trend and get on it early (granted, that's difficult to do.)

To illustrate that point, let's add DD Favs, post CC games:

DD Favs Post CC:
2-4 ATS
Hm 1-2, Rd 1-2
Ov 5-1
Hm 3-1, Rd 2-0

All of a sudden, the Over doesn't look like an automatic Fade.
It's gone 5-1 since the CC games ended.

Here are the combined records, pre-CC, CC, and post CC:
13-17 ATS
Hm 9-10, 4-7 Rd
Ov 13-17
Hm 5-14, Rd 8-3

For the season it's still a losing play backing DD Favs at 13-17, a profitable Fade at 56%.

And, coincidentally, Fading the Over gives you the same numbers and profit, 17-13, 56%.

Fading DD Favs on the Rd is even more profitable at 7-4, 63%.
Fading the Over on DD Fav Hm teams is 14-5, 73%.
Playing ON the Over when you have a DD Fav on the Rd is the strongest play at 8-3, 72%.

The question is will those numbers hold or will reversion toward the mean begin?

Tonight we have one game that qualifies and possibly a second.
The Las Vegas Aces are -19 at Hm against Connecticut.
The Liberty are -9' at Golden State but one or two books have it at -10 and most of the places at 9' have extra juice on the Fav, so by tip off time this one might also qualify.

Update: The WAN for NY/GS is now -10 so I'll add that one to my charts for DD Favs.

I took the Con/LV game Under.

As mentioned, I have Con at 5-2 for the Under on the Rd.

And I've already got at least one unit banked on this play so I'm okay with riding it again.

Recently, three of the last five Sun games stayed Under.
One of the two that didn't was Over by just one point.
Las Vegas' numbers don't help my cause, slight edge at 4-3 Over at Hm.

These two met earlier in the season and it landed on 149.

I missed out on the best number ('capping takes time.) It opened at 160'. Right now the board is kind of split, 160/159', but the 160's are at the odd books that most people probably don't use, the popular books are at 159' so that's what I'll use (it's also what I bought.)

My play:
Con/LV Un 159'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-3
Review: I had this one banked early, as Connecticut put up a 6 pt Q1.
My number was 159', landed on 144.

Pretty sure I'll have something tonight but still 'capping so I wanted to stop by with some stats and stuff for anyone looking for edges on today's slate.

We have a DD Fav and a team in Game 2 of B2B's situation tonight.

Here are updated stats on both spots.

DD Favs

DD Favs this season are:
14-18 overall
Hm 10-10
Rd 4-8

Totals in this spot are:
Ov 13-19
Hm 5-15
Rd 8-4

Tonight, Seattle is -19/-19' vs Con.
Con in this spot is Ov 3, Un 6.


Gm 2 of B2B's

Teams playing in game 2 of B2B's were profitable LY (Last Year) at 17-6 when playing the total to go Over.
This year, totals started out at 2-0 for the Under but four straight have gone Over so the record is Ov 4, Un 2.
Thus far, profitable plays on the Over, just like LY.

AND . . . the teams playing the second night in a row are 5-1 ATS.
Indiana played last night.
The Fever are laying -2/-2' at Dallas.
There's only been one B2B Rd Fav this season, NY.
They covered the spread.

Yes, Indiana is Clark-less tonight.
And yes, Indiana is 2-4 SU sans Caitlin.
But, as a 'capper you want to dig deeper.
Three of those six games were on the road.
They are 1-2 SU in those three games.
Here are their opponents:

They lost to Atlanta, who sits in second place in the Eastern Conference, winning 67% of their games at 10-5.

They lost to Washington, who is a surprising 8-8.

Their lone Rd win came against the 4-10 Chicago Sky, who they beat by 27 points.

Of those three opponents, Atl (10-5), Washington (8-8), and Chicago (4-10), which one closely resembles tonight's opponent, Dallas (4-12)?

Suddenly, laying two points and a hook doesn't look too bad.

Strong numbers for Connecticut Sun Under, again, but I've already banked a few on that spot and I don't like going back to the well too many times.

The Over in Game two of B2B's is looking good again this season.
Problem with tonight's spot is Clark is out.
Indiana full season avg 83.4 PPG on offense.
Without her they average 70.
Tonight's total is 168'.
Looks kind of high to me, especially when you factor in that the six games without her the games came in at 133, 131, 161, 168, 160, and 160. Every one of those are Under tonight's number.
So for league-wide stats the numbers for the Over look good, but when you get more team-specific, like Indiana without Clark, the numbers don't look so great.

So there it is, just some stuff to factor in if you're looking at either of those games.

I'm off to do some prop work. I should have something for tonight. If I do I'll post it later today.

Good luck with your play today.

Update:
My play today is for people who like to figure things out for themselves.

Tip off's in three and a half hours (it's 3:30 PST right now.)

First name: famous jeweler.

Second name: second word, title of Jimi's song about acid.

Un 14' pts, -108

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-3
Review: Banked a W last time in.
Famous jeweler: Tiffany and Company
Jimi song about acid: Purple Haze
Tiffany Hayes Under 14'
She landed on 13.
(Sorry about the puzzle, it wasn't too difficult though, and ya gotta break up the routine once in awhile.)

I have a play today, decent numbers on it, but it's one of these weekday early start time Camp Day/Kid Day games, which means an additional factor to add to your 'capping, one that I have no data on (but I charted this year's spots so I'll have something on it next year.)

Minnesota is in game 2 of B2B's.
This was profitable on the Over last year but is sitting at .500 this year, 5-5.
Edges can be found within that 5-5 though if you dig a little deeper, Hm 2-4, Rd 3-1.
So if you're considering a play on the Under on a team in game 2 of B2B's and they're at home you have an extra stat to add to your ammo.
Same if you're looking at an Over if they're on the Rd.
The Lynx are on the Rd today, possible consideration for an Over, but there's also this:
Teams playing in game 2 of B2B's are:
8-2 ATS.
The breakdown is Hm 4-2, Rd 4-0.

Looks like a good spot to play the Lynx on the Rd.

Let's look at a couple other angles, see if anything else justifies trusting them with my money today.

Minnesota is clearly the best team in the league, so as Spackler would say, "I've got that going for me."
Record-wise they're three games ahead of the Mercury and four games ahead of the Liberty.

But here's what I really like about this spot today - they're off a loss. Only their third of the season.
Here's how they responded in the next games following the first two losses.
They lost to Seattle, came back the next game and won 101-78.
They lost to the Mystics, came back the next day and won 96-92.
After losing to Phoenix in their last game I imagine they're going to be looking to take it out on somebody today, and the Sparks are that somebody.

So I have a team that's got the best record in the league at 17-3, facing a team that's tied with Chicago and Dallas for the second worst record in the league with just six wins (only the Sun are worse.)
Not a stretch to think Min wins SU, the question is will they cover the spread?

The Books opened this one at Min -3'.
There are still a few -6' out there but the WAN is -7 so that's what I'll use here.

I have a few rules that I try to stick to.
One of them is if the line moves against me three points or more I don't buy it.
Rules like that shouldn't be broken, they're in place for a reason, but I'm going to ignore it today. Sorry I didn't drop by sooner when better lines were available.

The Lynx are just 4-5 ATS on the Rd, not too great, but . . .
LA are 1-7 ATS at Hm; suddenly 4-5 doesn't look too bad.

The pendulum's got to start swinging back the other way for LA's ATS numbers at Hm, but hopefully it doesn't start today.

One other stat.
That 22-point win I mentioned above after Minnesota lost to Seattle?
Their opponent that night was . . . LA.

Good luck with your plays today.

My play:
Min -7

 

[B.A.R.]

Great stuff, I love puzzles!!

 

[B.A.R.]

That was a great cap.

I didn't realize this was a matinee.

That 4th made things a bit more interesting than it should have been!

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-3
Review: I was going to mention in my last post that for me this season Minnesota is one of those "nemesis teams."
You know what I mean, the team that always seems to lose when you bet ON them and wins when you bet AGAINST them, they go Over if you bet the Under and Under if you've got the Over.
But I didn't mention it in the post because I didn't want to jinx myself.

And they almost screwed me again.

They had a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter, ending up winning by just 9, barely covering the spread.

NEXT!

When I get bored I sometimes post my pick as a puzzle, just to break up the monotony.
When I do so, I expect possible blowback from people that like things handed to them without having to put any effort in (like entitled Gen Z'ers.)
But if anyone wants to complain about today's pick, blame B.A.R! (see post #22 above.)

I bought a player prop.
First name: Boris's partner in crime.
Second name: Moe's surname (stage, not real/actual.)
Ov 10' points, -108

She averages 11' PPG.

In three games against tonight's opponent she's scored 6, 26, and 15, covering tonight's number in two of three.

In the game she didn't cover 10' she was 3-9, just 33%, 15 points lower than her normal 48%.

She also went 0-4 on the free throw line, and you know that ain't going to happen again, she normally hits 75%.

Tonight I expect her percentages to be more in line with the two games where she surpassed 11'.

Twice this season she's scored less than five points in a game.
In her next game she bounced back with 16 and 13.
The relevance?
She only scored four points in her last game.

Good luck with your plays today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-4
Review: Lost on my prop bet, Boris's partner in crime (Natasha) Moe's last name (Howard) points total Over 11'.

Early Buy Recommendation

When the overnight line comes out I'm jumping on the Over in the Ind/NY game because I fully expect the line to go higher throughout the day.

I could be wrong, but that's my gut feel - barring any significant injuries the total will go up.

The number isn't out yet because the Caitlins are playing tonight.

This means that tomorrow they'll be playing in game 2 of B2B's, a spot that usually sees the total go higher (even though these are just 6-5 to the Over this season; slight edge.)

And there's this - these two have already played twice this season.
The first game opened at 170 and closed at 174'.
The second game opened at 167, closed at 170'.
BOTH games went up, 4' pts and 3'.
And both games went Over.

I'm not a "I guarantee it!" kind of guy.
I don't know if my 'capping on the Over for tomorrow's spot will be correct, after all, it's sports betting, anything can happen.

But I'm pretty sure the total is going to go higher so if you're planning to play the Over grab it early.

I'll try and update this post with the number I get when it shows up after tonight's game ends.

Note - tomorrow is Camp/Kids Day again, with a couple of early start times. Ind/NY isn't one of them but in case anyone's wondering if there are any edges to be taken advantage of, or at least considered when 'capping, here's what I have from last week's Camp/Kids Day games:

Corrected updated:
Favs 1-4 ATS
Ov 2-3


Not to sound like Colombo but, "One more thing" . . .

In case anyone's looking at tonight's game, the Fever are Double Digit Rd Favs.
DD Rd Favs are 6-11-1 ATS, and Overs are 13-5.

Those are league-wide stats, all WNBA teams.
Team specific, the Fever are 0-1 as DD Rd Favs, 1-0 Over.

Some good stats that say take the Over but I have no dog in the hunt.
I don't like using Con when I buy an Over, they're the worst scoring offense in the league at just 72.5 PPG.
They're just 10-10 on Ov/Un.
And Indiana is 10-12.

Update:
Lines were Ind -15, 166

Q1: Ind 29, Con 28. Combined 57.
And I thought - maybe I should have rode with the numbers and taken the Over?
But then, the natural order of things is restored:
Q2: Ind 15, Con 14. Combined 29
29!!!
Halftime line available at 166'/167'.
Sticking with my original take on the game, no play on the Over.

Update #2:
Total posted at a couple houses, everywhere from 163' to 165'.
With about 50 seconds left in tonight's game Clark pulled up lame, holding the inside of her right thigh, visibly upset, banged her head a few times against the padding on the backboard stanchion.
She just came back from a groin injury, looks like she may have reinjured it
This makes it difficult to pull the trigger on the total, not knowing which direction it's going to go if she's a game time decision.
If she is out here are some numbers from the games she missed this season:
4-5 SU
As a Fav 3-4 ATS, 1-1 as a Dog
OV 3-6, 2-3 Ov at Hm, 1-3 on the Rd.

With Clark questionable I can't buy the Over, their numbers without her are just too brutal.
I'll update this tomorrow.

 

[B.A.R.]

Clark doesn't seem right.

She did double her points tonight in the 4th at least.

Live total was at 182.5 at one point tonight!!

Obviously went way under that but i should have pounced earlier on that live bet.

Gunshy.

 

[RBD]

B.A.R,

Yes, she looked great in the 4th quarter.
I try to avoid 'capping using The Due Factor (based on the lesson taught to us by Krusty the Clown, regarding using it in sports betting; if anyone's not familiar with it look up, "Krusty bets on the Generals" and watch the video / tutorial. "He's spinning the ball on his finger - just TAKE it!") but she's about due for a comeback.
And I was looking forward to taking the points and/or the Over tonight.
But not with Clark out of the lineup (see stats below.)

The thing that stuck out to me the most about last night's game is how ESPN's announcers repeatedly (and with glee) kept reporting on her negative stats this season.
I was struck by the contrast to the announcers in the Chicago game that I watched the night before. They cannot praise Angel Reese enough, despite her underwhelming stats and entitled brat attitude.
She had a stupid turnover because, well, to be honest she's not very bright, and the announcers talked about what a great play it was by the defense, rather than just admit she wasn't paying attention to the game and got robbed of the ball.

Last night was a tough one for that total.
I had strong stats on and was tempted to take the Over, but managed to stay off it.

Same thing with tonight's game.
Conflicting stats.

Handicapping in the morning is usually my favorite part of the day, but today it’s giving me a headache.

The Marquee matchup is Indiana at New York. Here are some records to consider.

Indiana played last night so they're on the Rd in game 2 of B2B’s.
This spot (Rd teams in game 2 of B2B) is 5-0 ATS.
This spot is 3-1 Over.
Looks good for Indy and the Over, right?

Indiana is also a Double Digit Rd Dog.
These teams are 6-12 ATS.
These teams are 13-6 on the Over.

So I lose Indiana as a possible play because of conflicting records of 5-0 ATS and 6-12.
But the Over still looks good, right?

Once again, the Fever will be Clark-less tonight.
With Caitlin out of the lineup, the Over is 3-6.
With her, they average 85.5 PPG.
Without her, they average 79 PPG.
(Yes, I did a lot of stat work last night and this morning.)
So, based on 3-6, there goes the Over, right?

But wait a minute – what about the much heralded betting theory “Next Man Up” (or woman in this case) that says, "Take a team in the game after they lose their star player as everyone else steps up to the plate"???
Clark has been injured twice this season.
First game without her they lost 77-83 at Washington.
Second game they lost at home 75-88 to an extremely lousy LA.
They lost both games SU and ATS.
And both games stayed Under.
So much for, "Next (wo)man up."

TOO many conflicting stats on both the side and the total.
Thus, my headache.
And now anyone else's headache too if they’re looking at this game.

I'll have to look elsewhere for some action/fun tonight.
Will post if I have anything I recommend.

 

[RBD]

Record: 9-4
No recap or review 'cuz I didn't have a play in my last post.
Too many conflicting stats on the Ind/NY game I was looking at.
Sure, in ANY game, any sport, you can find stats that support either either side or Ov/Un, but you can usually come up with one factor that you weigh more heavily than the others and that's where you put your money. But in that game I got a headache from going back and forth and decided to just stay off it.

I haven't been making a lot of plays, but I wanted an interest in a game I was going to watch last night so I took Over 154' in Sea/Chi, based on the Ov/Un record for Double Digit Rd Favs (13-7, 65%.)

The Sky managed a pathetic 8 points in the second quarter.
In that quarter they also had a ridiculous NINE turnovers.
NINE!
A WNBA quarter is only 10 minutes long which means they averaged almost one turnover per minute!
And these guys have the nerve to wear t-shirts that say "Pay us what you owe us!"??!!
How about paying me back for the wager I lost because you suck!

Despite the Sky's disgusting Q2 the total was still winnable going into the 4th quarter. I only needed 42 points to get the Over and they had just scored 48 in Q3.
They scored 39. I lost by three points, thanks to that debacle of a second quarter (not to mention Chicago's abysmal 4-21 on three point shots.)

Okay, now that I got that off my chest, here's some stuff to consider for tonight:
Las Vegas played last night.
Teams that are playing in the second game of back-to-back nights are 10-3 ATS.
But . . .
LV is 0-1 ATS as a Double Digit Rd Dog and they're getting +10 from the Lynx tonight.
And Min is 7-3 ATS as a Double Digit Hm Fav.

Conflicting stats on LV/Min.
So, what to do?
How about avoiding a headache by looking at a different game.
I took Stewie (the Liberty version, not the Family Guy one) Ov 3' assists.
It's a little pricey at -125, but she averages 4 per game.
She's had 4 or more in four of her last five games.
The only game in those five that she didn't hit 4 or more she played 10 fewer minutes than her norm. She's not listed as injured in any way so she should get her full minutes tonight.

My play:
Stewart Ov 3' assists, -125

Side note - In case anyone is looking at possibly taking the total in the LV/Min game, game 2 of B2B's are 8-5 Ov/Un. This is down from last year's 17-6 but still profitable, hitting at 61%.

 

[B.A.R.]

Record: 9-4
No recap or review 'cuz I didn't have a play in my last post.
Too many conflicting stats on the Ind/NY game I was looking at.
Sure, in ANY game, any sport, you can find stats that support either either side or Ov/Un, but you can usually come up with one factor that you weigh more heavily than the others and that's where you put your money. But in that game I got a headache from going back and forth and decided to just stay off it.

I haven't been making a lot of plays, but I wanted an interest in a game I was going to watch last night so I took Over 154' in Sea/Chi, based on the Ov/Un record for Double Digit Rd Favs (13-7, 65%.)

The Sky managed a pathetic 8 points in the second quarter.
In that quarter they also had a ridiculous NINE turnovers.
NINE!
A WNBA quarter is only 10 minutes long which means they averaged almost one turnover per minute!
And these guys have the nerve to wear t-shirts that say "Pay us what you owe us!"??!!
How about paying me back for the wager I lost because you suck!

Despite the Sky's disgusting Q2 the total was still winnable going into the 4th quarter. I only needed 42 points to get the Over and they had just scored 48 in Q3.
They scored 39. I lost by three points, thanks to that debacle of a second quarter (not to mention Chicago's abysmal 4-21 on three point shots.)

Okay, now that I got that off my chest, here's some stuff to consider for tonight:
Las Vegas played last night.
Teams that are playing in the second game of back-to-back nights are 10-3 ATS.
But . . .
LV is 0-1 ATS as a Double Digit Rd Dog and they're getting +10 from the Lynx tonight.
And Min is 7-3 ATS as a Double Digit Hm Fav.

Conflicting stats on LV/Min.
So, what to do?
How about avoiding a headache by looking at a different game.
I took Stewie (the Liberty version, not the Family Guy one) Ov 3' assists.
It's a little pricey at -125, but she averages 4 per game.
She's had 4 or more in four of her last five games.
The only game in those five that she didn't hit 4 or more she played 10 fewer minutes than her norm. She's not listed as injured in any way so she should get her full minutes tonight.

My play:
Stewart Ov 3' assists, -125

Side note - In case anyone is looking at possibly taking the total in the LV/Min game, game 2 of B2B's are 8-5 Ov/Un. This is down from last year's 17-6 but still profitable, hitting at 61%.

Appreciate the info.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-4
Review: Had Stewie Ov 3' assists and she rewarded my faith in her by getting 5.

Tonight - a soft number put up by the books on Minnesota, expecting an overreaction from Joe Public due to Napheesa Collier being out?
I think so.

Yes, she's their top scorer.
And yes, she's also their top rebounder.
But does that make the Lynx 'Dogs to Seattle?

Minnesota was a 7-point Fav at home against Seattle and beat them 82-77, a win but no cover.
In their second meeting this season they were Rd Favs, -3', and won SU 94-84.
Tonight they're +2' in Seattle so the books are saying Collier is worth six points.
Maybe, maybe not. But this is the fourth game Phee has missed this season and Minnesota's 2-1 SU in the first three games.

Minn is an underdog for the first time this year.
And there's a reason for that - they don't suck.

I didn't dig too deep into stats on this one, it's more of a gut feel play, and my gut tells me take the points.
Well, I did do a little digging. It may be the first time Minnesota is getting points this year but last season they were 'Dogs 13 times. And they won nine of those games . . . SU!
And they were 10-3 ATS.
Like I said, they don't suck.
And that's more than you could say for most of the teams in this league.

Gimme the Phee-less Lynx +2

Good luck with your play today.

 

[Administrator]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-4
Review: Had Stewie Ov 3' assists and she rewarded my faith in her by getting 5.

Tonight - a soft number put up by the books on Minnesota, expecting an overreaction from Joe Public due to Napheesa Collier being out?
I think so.

Yes, she's their top scorer.
And yes, she's also their top rebounder.
But does that make the Lynx 'Dogs to Seattle?

Minnesota was a 7-point Fav at home against Seattle and beat them 82-77, a win but no cover.
In their second meeting this season they were Rd Favs, -3', and won SU 94-84.
Tonight they're +2' in Seattle so the books are saying Collier is worth six points.
Maybe, maybe not. But this is the fourth game Phee has missed this season and Minnesota's 2-1 SU in the first three games.

Minn is an underdog for the first time this year.
And there's a reason for that - they don't suck.

I didn't dig too deep into stats on this one, it's more of a gut feel play, and my gut tells me take the points.
Well, I did do a little digging. It may be the first time Minnesota is getting points this year but last season they were 'Dogs 13 times. And they won nine of those games . . . SU!
And they were 10-3 ATS.
Like I said, they don't suck.
And that's more than you could say for most of the teams in this league.

Gimme the Phee-less Lynx +2

Good luck with your play today.

Impressive content @RBD

Tie game in Seattle (66-66) as I type this. Good luck for the rest of this match.

 

[B.A.R.]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-4
Review: Had Stewie Ov 3' assists and she rewarded my faith in her by getting 5.

Tonight - a soft number put up by the books on Minnesota, expecting an overreaction from Joe Public due to Napheesa Collier being out?
I think so.

Yes, she's their top scorer.
And yes, she's also their top rebounder.
But does that make the Lynx 'Dogs to Seattle?

Minnesota was a 7-point Fav at home against Seattle and beat them 82-77, a win but no cover.
In their second meeting this season they were Rd Favs, -3', and won SU 94-84.
Tonight they're +2' in Seattle so the books are saying Collier is worth six points.
Maybe, maybe not. But this is the fourth game Phee has missed this season and Minnesota's 2-1 SU in the first three games.

Minn is an underdog for the first time this year.
And there's a reason for that - they don't suck.

I didn't dig too deep into stats on this one, it's more of a gut feel play, and my gut tells me take the points.
Well, I did do a little digging. It may be the first time Minnesota is getting points this year but last season they were 'Dogs 13 times. And they won nine of those games . . . SU!
And they were 10-3 ATS.
Like I said, they don't suck.
And that's more than you could say for most of the teams in this league.

Gimme the Phee-less Lynx +2

Good luck with your play today.

Nice work the other night!

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Admin and BAR.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-4
Review: Minnesota rewarded my faith in them as Dogs and came through with a SU win my last time in.

Recently I've been fighting the urge to go crazy and start betting more plays (possibly due to the REAL sports about to begin and getting a little antsy?) but discipline held me in check and I've been conservative as usual, 'capping everyday but just waiting for the right spots to buy into.

Won't be doing as much WNBA now as I switch over to college and NFL (college takes up a LOT of my handicapping time. Takes hours to run every game through the scenarios I use to try and find a Wrong Fav or total worth playing.)
I'll post up when I think I have a play worth sharing.

Have a prop I bought for tonight.
It's a little juicy at -136 but I have a few units banked on the season and I really like the match up.
I'll be visiting the Big Apple via TV tonight because I've got my money on:
The Teenage Witch Ov 4' assists.

 

[RBD]

Recap 0-1
Record 11-5
Review: I missed with the Ionescu prop.

I won my Battle with the Books for the WNBA regular season so I have some units banked to play with in the postseason. I only have one play in my pocket thus far, to win the championship.


WNBA Championship Pick

Yes, the picture above is Cameron Brink of the LA Sparks.

Yes, this is supposed to be about the WNBA championship.

Yes, her team didn't even make the playoffs.

So why the picture?
Because I may be wrong but I don't think anyone will complain.

But I digress.
Back to business.
Last year, at the start of the postseason, I took Minnesota and New York to win the WNBA Championship. When they both made it to the finals, I was able to hedge my bets and finish with a profit.

This season, I only see one team to pick, the Minnesota Lynx.

Let’s start with the two obvious eliminations.
First up, the Clark-less Fever.
Even if Caitlin was playing, they don’t have enough pieces to win the championship.
They split 2-2 with their round one opponent, Atlanta, in the regular season, but there’s a reason why Indiana opened at +10,000 and Atlanta at +1,000. Home court advantage is more than enough for Atlanta to take out Indiana.
Say “fini” to the Fever.

The Golden State Valkyries FAR exceeded everyone’s expectations and have set a new bar for expansion team franchises, one that may never be broken. Their season win total was set at 7’/8′ – and they won 23 games!
But this team lives and dies by the three-point shot. When they’re on, they’re ON, but when they’re off, they’re awf-ul, and despite the great record, they finished near the bottom of the league at offensive PPG.
So how did they win 23 games as an expansion team, scoring just 77 PPG? Believe it or not, they had the number one defense in the league, allowing just 76 PPG.
An expansion team is not going to win the WNBA championship.
Goodbye, Golden State.

Next up, the Storm.
Seattle finished 4th in the West and 7th overall. They drew the Aces in the first round. Though they split the regular season series 2-2, Vegas is the hottest team in the league, peaking at just the right time to begin the postseason.
Sayonara, Seattle.

Phoenix faces New York in round one.
They took three of four from the Liberty in the regular season, so this is a good matchup for them.

Or is it?

In their first win against New York, the Liberty were missing Ionescu.

In the second win, NY was missing Jonquel Jones.

In their third win, Jones went out with an ankle injury just 9 minutes into the game.

In the only game when New York had all its starters, Phoenix lost by 13 points.

New York is healthy now.
All their starters - Jones, Ionescu, and Stewie will be playing.
This Phoenix will go down in flames, not rise from them.

The Atlanta Dream had a terrific season and should advance to the second round after dispensing with the Fever.
They finished the regular season with the third-best record in the league as new head coach Carl Smesco broke the record for most wins by a WNBA coach in his rookie season.
And they are the only team to have a winning record against the top contender, Minnesota, beating them two out of three during the regular season.
So why are they fourth in betting odds to win the championship, behind a New York team that won three fewer games than them?
Experience.
Minnesota, Las Vegas, and New York all have the experience edge over Atlanta.
They folded in the first round last year, 0 games to 2. I like them to make it to round two this season, but not much further.
Arrivederci, Atlanta.

This brings us to the three teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all: New York, Las Vegas, and Minnesota.

The Lynx took three or four from New York during the regular season and two of three from Vegas.

Minnesota has all the edges.
They’ve got the experience.
They’ve got the confidence.
They’ve got the talent.
And they’ve got the bench depth.

They not only finished with the best record in the league, but they lost two straight only once the entire season, and that means a lot going into this postseason, where the WNBA for the first time will have a seven-game championship. Round one is best of three, round two is best of five, and the championship is now best of seven. So the ability to bounce back after a loss is a huge edge.

If you give me the best team, with probably the best player in the league (Napheesa Collier) and the best bench, *AND + money in a field of just eight teams where five realistically don’t have a shot, I’m going to take it every time.

* The Lynx were +110 when I bought them at the end of the regular season. They're -110 right now and I'll buy a little bit more at that price because I do not post what I do not buy myself.

My play:​

Minn -110

Good luck to anyone playing the WNBA postseason (translation: No one is playing the WNBA because it's football season!)