August 29, 2008
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The Friday Five: UK-UofL Picks[/FONT]
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CatsPause.com
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Talk about it in
The House of Blue
When the college football season kicks off for Kentucky and Louisville on Sunday at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, months of futile internet banter and radio chatter will give way to the very meaningful sound of shoulder pads popping and the rivalry being settled the way it was meant to be – on the actual field.
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Jeff Drummond/CatsPause.com</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>
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Alfonso Smith and the rest of the UK backfield figures to loom large in Sunday's game.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Smith, Alfonso 250 Image-->Before that can happen, however, each member of our CatsPause.com staff offers his final take on what will happen in the battle for the Governor's Cup.
1. JIM TIREY:
Since the revival of this series, I cannot remember the last time there were more unknowns in the UK-UofL showdown. That makes predicting anything in this game a scary situation, but here goes…
The matchup I'll be glued to is the experienced and seemingly improved UK defense trying to shut down talented Louisville quarterback Hunter Cantwell. This is what I think will be the key. I do not have enough faith in Kentucky's offense to think it will be able to outscore Louisville in a shootout. The defense, with experience on the line and the gifted Trevard Lindley patrolling the secondary (the Cards will be foolish to throw his way), needs to shut Louisville down early and often. Watch for third down conversion rates. If the Cards can get around 40-45% on the day, they will win the game, no question. That will mean that their offense is staying on the field, making it a long day for those wearing blue.
Tony Dixon and Derrick Locke also figure big. If the Cats control the clock with a good ground game, the Cats get the W. If Dixon
and Locke get over 100 yards, it will be a Cat blowout.
Prediction: Cats 19, Cards 17
2.MATT MAY:
I've been playing EA Sports'
NCAA Football video games for years, and I'll admit that I'm partial to throwing the football all over the field – or screen – because, well, it's a heck of a lot more fun than lining up and running the ball all the time. The same can't be said for real life, where being able to ram the ball down your opponent's throat is both an accepted and necessary method of winning football games.
The Kentucky-Louisville rivalry has been defined by who controls the line of scrimmage with the running game and this year will be no different. The Cats had 18 rushes of at least five yards in last year's game and dominated the ground war. If UK can do that again – and a veteran offensive line plus a stable of four talented backs suggest it can – I can't see the Cats losing. If not, Louisville is more dangerous than some UK fans want to admit. In the end I think the Cats' running game will help them protect their two young quarterbacks and expose the Cards' shaky defense in the second half.
Prediction: Kentucky 23, Louisville 20
3. TIM WISEMAN:
The rivalry returns to the opening week of the season, but most of last season's offensive stars will not be back for UK and UofL. As a result, the game should look much different than last year's scoring fest. With both teams starting new quarterbacks and revamped offenses, turnovers – or lack there of – will be the story of the game. UK is in far better position to take advantage of any miscues from the Cardinal offense. Cornerback Trevard Lindley made a pivotal interception in last year's game, and he likely will make his presence felt again. Plus, he has plenty of help from an aggressive and veteran D-line that could spoil Hunter Cantwell's first start at QB.
In a relatively low-scoring affair, expect the Wildcats' experienced defense and deep offensive backfield to make the difference. It might not be pretty thanks to so many changes for both teams' offenses, but it should be exciting.
Prediction: UK 24, UofL 20
4. DARRELL BIRD:
When you're talking about two football teams with more mysteries than a "Murder She Wrote-Night Stalker" twinbill, guessing "whodunit" between Kentucky and Louisville this Sunday isn't so easy as following a predictable script to a tidy conclusion before final credits roll.
Nonetheless, all gumshoes know you track any mystery first by following the clues, and the facts as we know them are these: Kentucky has better overall athletes, a deeper bench and superior confidence given the mindset of each program after last season. UK enters 2008 having collected back-to-back bowl Emmys while the Steve Kragthorpe Show is facing early cancellation if the ratings of testy UofL fans continue to plummet.
Kentucky wins the game because it has a better running attack thanks to a quartet of Tony Dixon, Derrick Locke, Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen compared to the bulk of Louisville's defensive strength, which rests on the line of scrimmage. Punch a hole in that line, as UK's experienced offensive line should be able to do, and the running backs will burst into the open field. And that's where the fun begins.
The glaring question for Kentucky is QB Mike Hartline, who has no experience to speak of. But an experienced running game, offensive line and impressive defense should require that the quarterback be no more than a supporting character.
Mystery solved.
Prediction: Kentucky 23, Louisville 17
5. JEFF DRUMMOND:
With both teams having lost several star players since they last met in an Instant Classic at Commonwealth Stadium, it's been hard for fans and media alike to get a good read on this game. In some ways, I think that's why the build up for this year's game hasn't been quite as strong as in recent years. Compounding the mystery has been the fact that both programs have been running closed practices, so nobody
really knows what either of these squads look like right now except the teams themselves.
So my prediction is based on what I do know, which is this: no matter how sophisticated offensive and defensive systems get, and no matter how skilled the players of today have become, the game still boils down to a very simple combination -- blocking and tackling. In this regard, I believe Kentucky has a distinct advantage over a Louisville squad that has seen its overall depth depleted in a variety of ways.
Rich Brooks has been publicly critical of his offensive line at times during fall camp. I don't think it's been due to a lack of talent. I think the UK boss has known for months that the key to this game is his O-Line developing a nasty attitude and setting out to dominate the line of scrimmage. With inexperience at quarterback, the Cats need to run the ball early, often and late against a Louisville team that struggled royally to stop the ground game last season and is expected to start three linebackers with no game experience.
Barring turnovers or special teams gaffes -- two very real possibilities in a season opener -- I think the Cats get the job done.
Prediction: UK 26, UofL 20