Win Totals...Who You Like?
- Thread starter mrpickem
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I will focus on AFC South with 2 huge additions back this year in Watson and Luck and new coach in TEN
I like HOU over, JAX under, TEN under
SDChargers o9.5, not sure about LA but sure
ATL no 1st place schedule, like over there
Tampa under, early season candidate for a 2 win team imo
I like HOU over, JAX under, TEN under
SDChargers o9.5, not sure about LA but sure
ATL no 1st place schedule, like over there
Tampa under, early season candidate for a 2 win team imo
Packers hype worth it?
I think the Browns hype is absurd tbh. How are they gonna score points for starters? Has anyone seen how difficult their schedule is?
dg84
Pretty much a regular
Replacing Kizer with Taylor last year would have resulted in 4 wins alone. Kizer's turnovers killed them in every close game they were in. Add in the other free agents, trades & draft picks & I think they could easily be a 6-10 or 7-9 team. If their coach had a clue, I might even give them a reasonable chance at sneaking in as a wild-card. Unfortunately, Hugh Jackson is not head coach material. I don't care how little talent a team has, if you're a good NFL coach, you'll be able to pry 6-7 wins out of the worst team over the course of two seasons.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I wouldn't take them to be .500 let alone win the AFC
The Bills literally do not have an offense, the Giants don't have a difference making pass rush / quarterback, the Bears have accumulated a lot of talent and are due for a coaching uptick, the Panthers have already suffered a few big injuries, and the Falcons have a fairly favorable schedule along with a healthier Julio / talented defense that is entering their third straight year together all entering their physical primes.
They're going to score points by giving the ball away much less often, having a very talented interior offensive line, difference makers at X receiver, slot receiver, tight end, and a stable of running backs with a variety of talents including Duke who is one of the best mismatch players in the entire league but hasn't had competent QB play. This offense has top 10 upside, scoring points should be a total non-issue for them.
Upgrading from Kizer to Tyrod / Baker is the biggest quarterback upgrade in recent NFL history. Worst QB play of the decade to good / at least competent QB play is a MASSIVE jump.
From Barnwell: Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, the teams that finished dead last in turnover margin in a given year posted an average margin of minus-20. The following year, those same teams posted a positive turnover margin, averaging a mark of just under plus-three. The teams improved by an average of 3.6 wins. If you're this bad at turning the ball over, a combination of luck and offseason investment tends to flip your margin the following season. The Browns had the league's fifth-worst fumble recovery rate (totally random) and replaced a historically sloppy quarterback with the league's safest pair of hands.
The QB upgrade alone should be worth 4 wins.
Raems you could say that about basically any team. The Jets for instance. They have backs with a variety of talents. Arguably more proven talent. Difference makers at receiver. Potential/ball security at qb. Talent on the line. Basically every team has talent and difference makers. I don‘t think the Browns have enough to do well with given their schedule. Yes they would have beaten Colts and few others with this year‘s team. But that‘s not the same as succeeding with fifth-hardest schedule this season.
(I’m gonna beef up this message later)
(I’m gonna beef up this message later)
You can't really say that other teams that were bad last year made comparable upgrades, we disagree there. Going from literally the worst possible quarterback play to average quarterback play is a very large jump. The Jets had a -4 turnover differential, Cleveland had a -28. The regression Cleveland is due for is close to historically unprecedented.
Josh Gordon, Njoku, Duke Johnson and Jarvis Landry compared to Robby Anderson, Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse - I don't see the Jets skill guys in the same stratosphere, and that's coming from a lifelong Jets fan.
Jets had a 3-5 record in one possession games last year, MAYBE you could say that can jump to a more normalized 4-4. Cleveland had an 0-6 record in one possession games last year - normalize that and it's worth 3 wins.
I understand your points diving into the roster, but I just don't agree. And my actual points are based more in basic statistical regression, which the Jets just don't have a case for given their point differential, turnover differential, record in close games, and 2017 win total. They actually overachieved a little last year.
Josh Gordon, Njoku, Duke Johnson and Jarvis Landry compared to Robby Anderson, Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse - I don't see the Jets skill guys in the same stratosphere, and that's coming from a lifelong Jets fan.
Jets had a 3-5 record in one possession games last year, MAYBE you could say that can jump to a more normalized 4-4. Cleveland had an 0-6 record in one possession games last year - normalize that and it's worth 3 wins.
I understand your points diving into the roster, but I just don't agree. And my actual points are based more in basic statistical regression, which the Jets just don't have a case for given their point differential, turnover differential, record in close games, and 2017 win total. They actually overachieved a little last year.
But 0 wins to 6 wins would also be a huge jump. And the sos.
Can‘t rely on Josh Gordon imo. I get that Duke is relatively strong catching pases but I dont think the Browns backs are a match for Bilal Powell with support from Forte replacement. Plus upside of Mcguire who did average more per catch than Duke (i know, less usage). And don‘t forget Pryor.
Can‘t rely on Josh Gordon imo. I get that Duke is relatively strong catching pases but I dont think the Browns backs are a match for Bilal Powell with support from Forte replacement. Plus upside of Mcguire who did average more per catch than Duke (i know, less usage). And don‘t forget Pryor.
Yeah I guess we just won't agree on this one and that's fine, it's what the discourse is for. We will see when they play the games.
My point was more that Cleveland is due for a very positive uptick, whether it's 3,4,5,6+ wins, whatever it ends up being will be a massive uptick when you consider they only play 16 games. I don't see anything resembling a similar case for a Jets uptick, especially not with the underlying statistical indicators.
My point was more that Cleveland is due for a very positive uptick, whether it's 3,4,5,6+ wins, whatever it ends up being will be a massive uptick when you consider they only play 16 games. I don't see anything resembling a similar case for a Jets uptick, especially not with the underlying statistical indicators.
Jets also had a harder sos though didn‘t they? Pats twice, Falcons and rest of NFC South. Quality wins like against Chiefs.
Also coaching ability
On a side note, i‘m trying to locate an article from last season about how the Jags match up well vs certain teams like Pitt who use certain packages as opposed to teams like 49ers. Trying to find it and apply it to this season. Help appreciated!
I think 5 wins is ceiling with Browns this season
I think Jets‘ wr talent has been obfuscated over the years by some bad qb play
Totally fair to think that, but a 5 win increase is a MASSIVE rarity! That's more my point, a jump that big is not to be discounted or dismissed as an achievement.
So is 0-16 though. But yea very fair point!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
The only real SOS I would ever use is when a team comes from nowhere to first in their division (Rams for instance) and go from an easy schedule to a first place schedule or complete team makeover (Watson and Luck do that so AFC South is tremendously more difficult, as do the Browns with actual weapons) those teams become much more difficult to beat.
Remember the NFL is so fluid and built for parody, so SOS is all relative. Every year teams aren't what they were last year with the exception of a couple of them, we may look at the Browns schedule halfway through the season and say it was fairly easy at this point for all we know.
Remember the NFL is so fluid and built for parody, so SOS is all relative. Every year teams aren't what they were last year with the exception of a couple of them, we may look at the Browns schedule halfway through the season and say it was fairly easy at this point for all we know.
Texans will certainly be better though. And sos is way harder than last year.Good SOS writeup from Chase Stuart --- this is implied based on full season forecasted point spreads.
http://www.footballperspective.com/2018-schedule-analysis-sos-and-front-and-back-loaded-schedules/
http://www.footballperspective.com/2018-schedule-analysis-sos-and-front-and-back-loaded-schedules/
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/the-secret-to-beating-the-jaguars-pass-defense
Fantastic article here. Can someone tell me how many of Jags opponents tend to use two wr or fewer sets?
Fantastic article here. Can someone tell me how many of Jags opponents tend to use two wr or fewer sets?
Analytically dubitable is his quip about the Packers, gotta look into that more, cause he kinda nullifies one of his own points there
Here's the thing though. A team with a +149 point differential and their game scripts tends to win 12 games, not 10. What I mean is if you ran that exact season for the Jags through a simulation, the 50th percentile result is a 12 win team. They underperformed significantly by only winning 10 games last year.
AFC East / NFC East draw is probably the easiest possible out of division draw this season, too.
Jags were -1 in close games. But they mostly best up bad teams including Houston after hurricane and then minus Watson/Watts and Ravens in London. Two games vs Colts
Wow I didn’t realize that every game is actually very winnable for Jags. Not to mention they’re better than Pats with honest referees lol. I mean, best defense for sure and if Blake is as good as he was in playoffs...great o-line (bolstered even) and Fournette.
In Arrowhead is always tough. Idk what to think of Dallas this season. Steelers tough talent-wise but Jags match up well vs them. But Titans always a terror. Pats + refs are always hard. I could see a loss to Houston. Over makes a lot of sense to me now that we talk about it
Thankfully no west coast games Jags always fall flat there—a reality that didn‘t get accounted into Jags sos last season
Yeah even with inevitably less fortunate health on defense that should remain a top 5 unit. The uptick should be on offense where these young guys are all a year older, Norwell reaffirms the identity in a major way and Fournette is hopefully a difference maker / healthy unlike last year. If anything his weight loss should hopefully help.
Their path to 12ish wins is arguably the cleanest in the league.
Their path to 12ish wins is arguably the cleanest in the league.
Im taking for granted two losses to Tits, loss to either Pitt or Pats, and one upset. Yea Jags over gotta be a great play.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I will never buy that you can be a consistent year in/year out winner in this NFL with the old school running game a defense philosophy. They lost two receivers, better figure something else out than hand to Fournette on offense.
Do not see them winning games at KC, Dallas, Houston (who should win the division with healthy Watson) and depending on Luck, at Indy. Indy is sneaky talented on offense now. Lucky to get both NE and PIT at home for sure.
Do not see them winning games at KC, Dallas, Houston (who should win the division with healthy Watson) and depending on Luck, at Indy. Indy is sneaky talented on offense now. Lucky to get both NE and PIT at home for sure.
Teams that make huge leaps in a given season rarely improve the following year. From 1989-2016, there were 23 teams that improved by seven or more wins in a given season, as the Jags did a year ago in jumping from 3-13 to 10-6. Just three of those teams -- the 1997 Jets, 2012 Colts, and 2014 Texans -- maintained or improved on their record the following year. In one sense, the Jaguars are up against history
Probably a meaningless trend
Probably a meaningless trend
I hope extending Bortles‘ contract won‘t make him regress. I think this team is on a mission to reach super bowl tho after getting cheated vs Pats. I love guys coming out saying we‘re the best, same kinda positive attitude exhibited last season
They're returning 74% of their receiving yards if you just look at their top 7 guys last year in terms of yardage - the only guys who left are Hurns who only played the first half of the year, Marcedes Lewis who is now a guy collecting checks as a backup tight end. Bortles' top 3 actual targets in Cole / Westbrook / Lee are all back and are young guys who will only get better --- pointing out their skill guys is not the path to them getting worse, it's actually the path to them getting better.
They played all year without Robinson so counting him as an actual loss isn't fair.
Courtesy of Barnwell, again:
Crucially for the 2018 Jags, even good teams that underperform their Pythagorean expectation tend to improve, since a team's expected win total is a better predictor of future win-loss record than its actual win total. When you go back through 1989 and look at similar teams to Jacksonville by examining squads with .500 or winning records that finished more than 1.5 games below their expected record, you'll find that those teams improved by 1.7 wins the following year.
Crucially for the 2018 Jags, even good teams that underperform their Pythagorean expectation tend to improve, since a team's expected win total is a better predictor of future win-loss record than its actual win total. When you go back through 1989 and look at similar teams to Jacksonville by examining squads with .500 or winning records that finished more than 1.5 games below their expected record, you'll find that those teams improved by 1.7 wins the following year.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
There is something to be said that the window for them might be very small if they're gonna make that jump over the pond. Not sure how many FAs will want to go do all of that. And with the owner (might be my favorite owner in the NFL) seemingly ready to purchase Wembley it's a matter of when, not if I'm thinking.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Barnwell posted in his prolific way 6 going up 6 going down
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rove-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ine-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...rove-win-more-games-2018-projections-schedule
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ine-win-fewer-games-2018-projections-schedule
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I think the value in season win totals are where the line is set based on the past and not set because of future expectations. Recent example are the Rams. How they were only 5.5 after the coaching change and watching preseason is beyond me.
This years team who I feel falls in the same category are the Giants. Only thing I'm waiting on are a couple preseason games. Getting 6.5 instead of 7 would also add to my wager.
This years team who I feel falls in the same category are the Giants. Only thing I'm waiting on are a couple preseason games. Getting 6.5 instead of 7 would also add to my wager.
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