***Wildcard Lex***

Almost locked in -122 but woke up to a nice -108 so I’m not going to hope for a better line anymore.

Heavy lean to tt over but I hate the hook & the biggest question mark for me is the kicking game.

I’ll be adding reasoning/plays as the week goes on but there is zero chance I’m fading Josh Allen as a pick rd1 idc if the game is on mars
 
Close to a cook rush yds over wager as well.

Jax is great vs the run but haven’t faced a balanced attack. They face Taylor 2x but game 1 Danny dimes gets knocked out and game 2 was rivers. They shut down good rbs but cmc still had 140 all purpose. Jax will have to prove they can stop cook and the oline is nice and healthy so I think they’ll be up for it.

Side bar- mcd getting flack for Hairston injury to me is unwarranted. You can only rest so many ppl and to me Hairston not seeing the field for so long I would think they want him in game action as much as they can. Just bad luck. They clearly made a decision to rest Dion and I think it could pay dividends here vs a solid d line.
 
Like the Kincaid play quite a bit. Gotta be a really good sign he played last week. Really hard to see a world he doesn’t go over this. Seems like a nice wheel candidate, he could double this easy depending on game flow.
 
Brewers888 said:
Buffalo has to at least win this game or the coaching staff has to get fired with both Stefanski and Harbaugh out there. Hopefully Allen can overcome McDermott but they can't keep wasting his career on inferior coaching.
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I definitely wait out this game and even the next if I'm Johnny Harbaugh. This is a change that needs to happen unless they make the SB.
 
Also forgot I have Bills to win SB Future (posted week 15 i believe) +1200 but I posted +1000. Still available @ +1000 so not the best on value but hey it's locked in.

Allen 0-6 road playoff games is something I keep seeing thrown around... This is a stat you shouldn't be hanging your hat on. Totally different teams & matchups. 1 road playoff game in the last 4 years so how relevant is it really. No offense to Jax but they aren't the Chiefs of years past. The other losses were early in Allen's career with little run game. You can say it's the coaching but def not on Josh who put up video game numbers in losses @KC.

Jags are +13 turnover differential to the Bills +1 kind of reminds me of how the Bills were last season. The Bills likely won't win if they can't win the turnover battle.


Been mulling over Cook props rush yds or rush/rec over. Again KC run D was great last season and in the playoffs Cook had 134 all purpose 2 tds (should have had more touches). He's even better now. Jax run D is great but the whole Bills identity is running the ball. Zero chance the Bills abandon the run and I think low chance Jax completely shuts down Cook. I could see Buffalo trying to take advantage of play action early to open up more run lanes.
 
Some quick thoughts on player props


Shakir- Allen trusts Shakir and he was targeted 6+ times in 4 of the last 5 playoff games. 6 catches in three straight playoff games and although the game script will be much different it's tough for me to see him not getting 6+ targets. I think his catches total o4.5-120 is very beatable- I don't want to get too crazy props wise but I see him in the 40-65 yd range. 4+ catches is a nice leg for a parlay & will be added to mine.

Cook- already talked about him but a sneaky one I have been looking at is rec yds. He was used much less in the passing game this season but I suspect they'll try to get it to him a couple times in the passing game. His longest rec is 8.5 which is VERY beatable. Longshot 30+ rec & 2tds pays+1500. If he breaks one pass for a long td you are looking great.

Cook rush o110 pays 3 to 1. He did it 7x this season I think he might break one. Longest rush @14.5 enticing too.

Knox- another guy Allen trusts. I would think he's targeted a couple times could be worth a shot at 17.5 as he's averaging 24.5 ypg.

Gabe Davis is interesting to me. Maybe the Bills think he can make a big play downfield? I think after that catch last week they might give it a shot. I would think he gets 3+ targets and he's also a solid blocker. So tough to predict who will even be seeing the field at wr at this point. Is Keon going to be a healthy scratch when he is the third most targeted player? It's crazy every other wr & the top 3 tight ends in rotation all averaged more yds per catch than Keon. Even after being scratched he's still the 2nd most targeted Bill & 2nd in rec tds.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Close to a cook rush yds over wager as well.

Jax is great vs the run but haven’t faced a balanced attack. They face Taylor 2x but game 1 Danny dimes gets knocked out and game 2 was rivers. They shut down good rbs but cmc still had 140 all purpose. Jax will have to prove they can stop cook and the oline is nice and healthy so I think they’ll be up for it.

Side bar- mcd getting flack for Hairston injury to me is unwarranted. You can only rest so many ppl and to me Hairston not seeing the field for so long I would think they want him in game action as much as they can. Just bad luck. They clearly made a decision to rest Dion and I think it could pay dividends here vs a solid d line.
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Totally disagree with the sentiment on Hairston. There is no circumstance where the 1st round pick should be on the field at arguably the bills thinnest position in a meaningless game up 35-0 late in the 4th. ..I'm putting anyone at CB at that point .. Sam Franklin , shit I'll even put Josh Palmer out there 😂😂😂...

I get it thou brother , this possible catastrophe is the result of Beane cutting solid depth corner Jemarcus Ingram without even bothering to see if Darius slay wanted to sign here.

The Jags are loaded at WR with 4 players that could give the Bills secondary fits ( and the TE Strange too ), not having our fastest CB possibly ever in franchise history might be dooming Sunday ....

Completely understand your point ..Really appreciate your time here posting on CTG



GO BILLS 💙♥️🤍
 
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Thanks @DOUBLEUP4LIFE

The Slay debacle I will never understand…. Ingram isn’t good my any means but yeah the lack of depth is scary.


BetRivers moves bills to +1. Total @ 51.5 on there so now I got bills tt o25.5-120. Didn’t think it would get there but here we are.
 
Added tt o25.5. Would have been a 4 unit but I already played 2ndh o1.5 tds.


Added Kyren- playoff football means you gotta run the ball, even more when you’re otr and your defense hasn’t been great. Kyren crushed last playoffs and I think he gets over this number. Might play an alternate with td not sure yet
 
2daBank said:
Like the Kincaid play quite a bit. Gotta be a really good sign he played last week. Really hard to see a world he doesn’t go over this. Seems like a nice wheel candidate, he could double this easy depending on game flow.
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I think the number is low because he’s been injured. He’s been limited in practice but I think that’s just being cautious.

When targeted 3 or more times this season he’s went over 36 yds 9 out of 10x. Tough for me to see a game script where he gets under 4 targets so auto play for me. Not going to overthink this one I believe barring injury or dropping multiple balls this cashes.
 
I'm going to edit in straight wagers at the top until first kickoff. I'll just put the parlays I have played here...


+310

Shakir 4+ rec
Allen 30+ rushing
James Cook 70+ rushing
Kincaid 20+ rec

2 units


+15610

Davante Adams TD
Kyren 50+ rushing
Josh Jacobs 75+ rush & rec
Josh Jacobs TD
Swift 40+ rush
Kincaid TD
James Cook 75+ rush & rec
Saquon TD
Nico Collins TD

.25 unit


+10830

Allen 2 rushing tds
Davante Adams TD
Saquon TD
Woody Marks TD
Nico TD

.25 units
 
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