Wild Card Round: Rams vs. Seahawks Discussion Thread

[KJ]

Hardest game of the weekend for me. Can make a case for both sides and over/under, not a positive when gambling. Probably best live imo or a prop or two...I do not believe Metcalf has a big game, I do think Lockett will be the beneficiary. Also expect Russ gets sacked several times.

 

[C-MAN]

This season is such a different animal with totals. I don’t think under trends/stats from prior seasons means anything this year.

 

[wiseplayer]

I think you have to be insane to bet an under this low. Not saying I love the over, but so many things have to go right for it to stay under.

Especially with Wolford and the potential to turn it over. McVay took big chances with this kid last week so I don't expect a conservative approach.

 

[Lexington 125]

Especially with Wolford and the potential to turn it over. McVay took big chances with this kid last week so I don't expect a conservative approach.

Exactly. McVay knows they can't play conservative if they want to win. Can't fault him at all conservative play gets you a close loss. Hawks could give up some big plays but they do have an opportunistic d that can take a turnover to the house. Could also see the Rams playing "too physical" and Russ/DK getting calls on deep balls setting up short fields. Game is shaded towards scoring now more than ever.

 

[KJ]

Playing devil's advocate for over, what I saw last week was Wolford extending drives by running for first downs on 3rd and mid to long yet not like he was extremely efficient in the red zone. Lengthy drives ending in field goals or *gasp* punts inside the 10 are over killers. Dead serious, I have no clue how this one plays out.

 

[wiseplayer]

Playing devil's advocate for over, what I saw last week was Wolford extending drives by running for first downs on 3rd and mid to long yet not like he was extremely efficient in the red zone. Lengthy drives ending in field goals or *gasp* punts inside the 10 are over killers. Dead serious, I have no clue how this one plays out.

I'm looking at a 13pt teaser and I still can't figure out which way is the safest way to go. I could bring the total down to 30 and could lose with a 16-13 game

 

[Lexington 125]

If I played a 13 pt teaser I'd play Bills+6, Bills o39, Bears+23, Titans+16. I don't play teasers much though

 

[spottie2935]

Over 42.5 too good of a QB in Wilson to pass up. these Defenses too much respect for a total this low. I know the Rams offense has been bad and low scoring games for the Rams the last few games. Playoff time now light it up!

 

[2daBank]

Over 42.5 too good of a QB in Wilson to pass up. these Defenses too much respect for a total this low. I know the Rams offense has been bad and low scoring games for the Rams the last few games. Playoff time now light it up!

i dunno. As I’ve mentioned there prob is a little value on over anything below 43 but I still can’t bring myself to bet it. Not only has Wilson struggled a ton vs rams (especially since they added ramsey) but how can you trust seattle to open the offense up? Only way I can really see it going over is if they get tied at 20. It be pretty shocking if 23/24 wasn’t enough to win this. Think this a really good number cause if it does go over it won’t be by much imo. Feel like it be really close to the total if it stays under also: I’d like to find a bet where it lands somewhere between 38-45. I like it teased either way with rams.

 

[KJ]

i dunno. As I’ve mentioned there prob is a little value on over anything below 43 but I still can’t bring myself to bet it. Not only has Wilson struggled a ton vs rams (especially since they added ramsey) but how can you trust seattle to open the offense up? Only way I can really see it going over is if they get tied at 20. It be pretty shocking if 23/24 wasn’t enough to win this. Think this a really good number cause if it does go over it won’t be by much imo. Feel like it be really close to the total if it stays under also: I’d like to find a bet where it lands somewhere between 38-45. I like it teased either way with rams.

I think you could tease both sides and totals and do well. I won't because it's a lot to ask and we're wrong a lot but the numbers are so tight on this one.

 

[2daBank]

I think you could tease both sides and totals and do well. I won't because it's a lot to ask and we're wrong a lot but the numbers are so tight on this one.

I don’t have anything to back it up but I feel like wild card round is typically a teasers dream weekend cause as you said numbers are tight as fuck. I have no interest teasing thru 0 so no seattle for me but taking rams up to + 9/10 seems like a winner. I prefer taking the total up to 48/49 but as mentioned I think either direction one prefers be money.

Not sure about the Bucs/Washington side? Scared teasing that game either way has some risk. Bucs could win by 2 tds or they could lose! Neither would shock me! Lol. I played the under 45 already. Suppose I could tease that to 51 for some insurance?

then steelers at end of any tease outta be ok, just think browns have too much to overcome with the Rona and not practicing till today, that a issue imo.

no sense teasing the ravens game unless you like titans which I do not, lol.

 

[KJ]

I don’t have anything to back it up but I feel like wild card round is typically a teasers dream weekend cause as you said numbers are tight as fuck. I have no interest teasing thru 0 so no seattle for me but taking rams up to + 9/10 seems like a winner. I prefer taking the total up to 48/49 but as mentioned I think either direction one prefers be money.

Not sure about the Bucs/Washington side? Scared teasing that game either way has some risk. Bucs could win by 2 tds or they could lose! Neither would shock me! Lol. I played the under 45 already. Suppose I could tease that to 51 for some insurance?

then steelers at end of any tease outta be ok, just think browns have too much to overcome with the Rona and not practicing till today, that a issue imo.

no sense teasing the ravens game unless you like titans which I do not, lol.

I simply don't like teasing totals in general in football when you are only getting a score from either side that wins or loses unless you're doing some crazy 10 or 13 pointer. Prefer teasing sides if I do it, which is rare anyway.

 

[2daBank]

I simply don't like teasing totals in general in football when you are only getting a score from either side that wins or loses unless you're doing some crazy 10 or 13 pointer. Prefer teasing sides if I do it, which is rare anyway.

generally I agree, there a few exceptions, mostly when there not a ton of options! Lol. The lower totals like the seattle/rams game I think make some more sense. The bucs game I don’t think it would be wise.

 

[wizardofodd]

I never tease totals, no value for me
Lets say line is -6 and 42

Move it to Pk and Under 48

Side adjustment was 100% (of course if higher, the lower the %, but NFL teasers is usually not less than 50%)
Total adjustment was 13%. (of course the lower the total, the higher the %, but it will never be as much value as a side adjustment)

 

[spottie2935]

30 at the half. Lets get this finished boys !

 

[KJ]

I never tease totals, no value for me
Lets say line is -6 and 42

Move it to Pk and Under 48

Side adjustment was 100% (of course if higher, the lower the %, but NFL teasers is usually not less than 50%)
Total adjustment was 13%. (of course the lower the total, the higher the %, but it will never be as much value as a side adjustment)

It's simply never made sense to me

 

[spottie2935]

30 at the half. Lets get this finished boys !

finished unless the lights go out or the fans start throwing beer bottles at the refs or something like that