Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I feel bad, SN has started to write up paragraph after paragraph on why he's on a side again and here I am like, 'meh, gimmie the Browns ML. Because I said so, that's why.'
First, the disclaimer. I'm a Gator fan. If you think that makes the following less than objective, that's fine, I can completely understand that, you don't need to point it out.
Now, here's why I'm playing Florida in this game.
Sometimes you bet against teams. Their defense sucks or you know they can't contain the team they're going to play, or maybe it's a bad spot. But other times you play on a team and that's the case here.
I'm betting Florida here far more because of what I see in Florida than what I see in OU.
What I see is this.
One, the best college QB in the nation. Don't get me wrong, Bradford's good, but Tebow is like Vince Young in the way you have to game plan specifically for him. OU will almost certainly have to spy Tebow in some way. This means you're likely going to see a great deal of man coverage and Tebow, unlike a VY or a quicker running QB, can actually make the throws.
Two, more Tebow. No one is going to be more motivated to win this game than Tebow. First, there are the obvious comments by OU. But those are really just the icing on the cake. Tebow is hell-bent on proving he can be an NFL QB and he knows there are a lot of people out there who think that cannot and will not happen.
Personally, I think Tebow comes out after this game and he uses this as a showcase--and generally any time Tebow is fired up to prove a point, he plays very well.
Minor aside: About a month ago, Mel Kiper Jr. gets a call on his radio show as he's talking about Tebow and why he's not pro material at QB. The phone call is from Tebow who wants to know, specifically what it is in his game that Mel sees that says he can't do what he does on the next level.
Tim Tebow is not Matt Leinart. He's not out trying to catch STDs before kickoff, he's working on his game and he's focused--and if you doubt that go back and see the guarantee he made after their lone loss this year. No matter what you think about the guy or that moment, he's never not been prepared since, he's never not been ready to go since--and to me that means all the more when you happen to be the best at your position in the country. It's like when Jordan would spend the offseason adding another element to his game, you're just that much more f**ked.
Back to the larger picture on offense which also speaks to preparation and focus.
This is offensive coordinator Dan Mullen's last game with the Gators as he leaves to go be a HC. Urban Meyer is a touchy-feely coach in some ways, all about creating a family environment (Carroll at USC is somewhat similar). Given this, there is absolutely no way this offense is not focused and prepared for this game. Because win or lose, this is the end of this era of Gator football. Tebow might leave, but even if he stays, this offense, the one the Mullen ran, ends on Thursday night.
So just like USC, when you see a team lose a family member, expect to see them come out just a little more determined to send one of their own out on top.
Again, you can say it's the NC game and no one should need extra motivation, but that's not what I'm talking about exactly. I'm talking about focus, about preparation, about how the Gators have been in a Championship situation before and how in this particular case they have even more reason, on a team level (Mullen's last game), and on an indivdual level (Tebow with something to prove) to focus on what's important here and not be taken in by the distractions.
This team is about winning this game for mulitiple reasons, many of them personal and those are the teams you just hate to play against.
Now, that's all well and good, but how do they get the win.
Well, one thing jumped out at me from the Big XII Championship. Very early on, on one of the first drives of the game, Missouri moved the ball well and relatively easily. Why? Because Daniel scrambled. They very quickly got away from this as the score got out of hand, but getting Tebow out as a runner is in the Gators' gameplan every week. It's not a gimmick, it's something OU has to prepare for.
Which, again, goes back to man coverage. Because if you're spying or blitzing Tebow to keep him contained, you're singling up other guys.
Which, I believe, opens OU up to big plays--particularly from TEs like Aaron Hernandez.
Last night in the Fiesta Bowl they mentioned how Texas doesn't throw much to their TEs. Well, Hernandez, though young, is quite likely going to be an NFL TE as soon as he comes out.
So what you're telling me is that Texas, without a real threat at TE, put up 45 points on OU? How do they account for Florida's TEs?
Remember, Tebow's a lot like McCoy except that he's bigger, more experienced, and, you know, better.
Frankly, it's not just OU, I don't see how any team in the country can really cover all the threats Florida has on offense right now. Especially when you haven't seen them before.
You look at the teams who've played Florida close lately, and they've all seen this team before. Those teams have found ways to contain Tebow, contain Harvin, but they still haven't really found ways to win the game.
So now you have a rested, healthy Florida, playing against a team that hasn't seen them before, when the team that's closest to what they put on the field (Texas) put up 45 on them?
Florida's O-line is bigger, they've handled impressive D-lines like LSU and Alabama. Given that I think they can protect Tebow. And if they can protect Tebow, I don't see how OU keeps this team out of at least the upper 30s if not well into the 40s.
Defensively, I think Florida's good. Everybody seems to think they're really good, but that's not me. I think they have enough to keep OU somewhere in the 20s, and that they're good enough to turn OU over a couple of times. Which, with Florida's offense, is all I think they really need.
Ever since Mike Stoops left OU's had trouble stoping teams in bowl games, I think that continues here. Urban Meyer has proven that he knows how to prepare for a bowl game, Florida has every reason to really go after this one, I think they win. Hopefully big.
This is the biggest play I've made in two seasons.
Gators ML -160 (average) - approx. 10 units.
Gators -3/2.5 (-120 average) - approx. 6 units.
Good luck Thursday night everybody.
First, the disclaimer. I'm a Gator fan. If you think that makes the following less than objective, that's fine, I can completely understand that, you don't need to point it out.
Now, here's why I'm playing Florida in this game.
Sometimes you bet against teams. Their defense sucks or you know they can't contain the team they're going to play, or maybe it's a bad spot. But other times you play on a team and that's the case here.
I'm betting Florida here far more because of what I see in Florida than what I see in OU.
What I see is this.
One, the best college QB in the nation. Don't get me wrong, Bradford's good, but Tebow is like Vince Young in the way you have to game plan specifically for him. OU will almost certainly have to spy Tebow in some way. This means you're likely going to see a great deal of man coverage and Tebow, unlike a VY or a quicker running QB, can actually make the throws.
Two, more Tebow. No one is going to be more motivated to win this game than Tebow. First, there are the obvious comments by OU. But those are really just the icing on the cake. Tebow is hell-bent on proving he can be an NFL QB and he knows there are a lot of people out there who think that cannot and will not happen.
Personally, I think Tebow comes out after this game and he uses this as a showcase--and generally any time Tebow is fired up to prove a point, he plays very well.
Minor aside: About a month ago, Mel Kiper Jr. gets a call on his radio show as he's talking about Tebow and why he's not pro material at QB. The phone call is from Tebow who wants to know, specifically what it is in his game that Mel sees that says he can't do what he does on the next level.
Tim Tebow is not Matt Leinart. He's not out trying to catch STDs before kickoff, he's working on his game and he's focused--and if you doubt that go back and see the guarantee he made after their lone loss this year. No matter what you think about the guy or that moment, he's never not been prepared since, he's never not been ready to go since--and to me that means all the more when you happen to be the best at your position in the country. It's like when Jordan would spend the offseason adding another element to his game, you're just that much more f**ked.
Back to the larger picture on offense which also speaks to preparation and focus.
This is offensive coordinator Dan Mullen's last game with the Gators as he leaves to go be a HC. Urban Meyer is a touchy-feely coach in some ways, all about creating a family environment (Carroll at USC is somewhat similar). Given this, there is absolutely no way this offense is not focused and prepared for this game. Because win or lose, this is the end of this era of Gator football. Tebow might leave, but even if he stays, this offense, the one the Mullen ran, ends on Thursday night.
So just like USC, when you see a team lose a family member, expect to see them come out just a little more determined to send one of their own out on top.
Again, you can say it's the NC game and no one should need extra motivation, but that's not what I'm talking about exactly. I'm talking about focus, about preparation, about how the Gators have been in a Championship situation before and how in this particular case they have even more reason, on a team level (Mullen's last game), and on an indivdual level (Tebow with something to prove) to focus on what's important here and not be taken in by the distractions.
This team is about winning this game for mulitiple reasons, many of them personal and those are the teams you just hate to play against.
Now, that's all well and good, but how do they get the win.
Well, one thing jumped out at me from the Big XII Championship. Very early on, on one of the first drives of the game, Missouri moved the ball well and relatively easily. Why? Because Daniel scrambled. They very quickly got away from this as the score got out of hand, but getting Tebow out as a runner is in the Gators' gameplan every week. It's not a gimmick, it's something OU has to prepare for.
Which, again, goes back to man coverage. Because if you're spying or blitzing Tebow to keep him contained, you're singling up other guys.
Which, I believe, opens OU up to big plays--particularly from TEs like Aaron Hernandez.
Last night in the Fiesta Bowl they mentioned how Texas doesn't throw much to their TEs. Well, Hernandez, though young, is quite likely going to be an NFL TE as soon as he comes out.
So what you're telling me is that Texas, without a real threat at TE, put up 45 points on OU? How do they account for Florida's TEs?
Remember, Tebow's a lot like McCoy except that he's bigger, more experienced, and, you know, better.
Frankly, it's not just OU, I don't see how any team in the country can really cover all the threats Florida has on offense right now. Especially when you haven't seen them before.
You look at the teams who've played Florida close lately, and they've all seen this team before. Those teams have found ways to contain Tebow, contain Harvin, but they still haven't really found ways to win the game.
So now you have a rested, healthy Florida, playing against a team that hasn't seen them before, when the team that's closest to what they put on the field (Texas) put up 45 on them?
Florida's O-line is bigger, they've handled impressive D-lines like LSU and Alabama. Given that I think they can protect Tebow. And if they can protect Tebow, I don't see how OU keeps this team out of at least the upper 30s if not well into the 40s.
Defensively, I think Florida's good. Everybody seems to think they're really good, but that's not me. I think they have enough to keep OU somewhere in the 20s, and that they're good enough to turn OU over a couple of times. Which, with Florida's offense, is all I think they really need.
Ever since Mike Stoops left OU's had trouble stoping teams in bowl games, I think that continues here. Urban Meyer has proven that he knows how to prepare for a bowl game, Florida has every reason to really go after this one, I think they win. Hopefully big.
This is the biggest play I've made in two seasons.
Gators ML -160 (average) - approx. 10 units.
Gators -3/2.5 (-120 average) - approx. 6 units.
Good luck Thursday night everybody.
opcorn:
