Why an AP Title is Not out Reach or Why Texas Stomps a Mudhole on Everyone

[RJ Esq]

Texas still has very backdoor hopes for a National Title game against Ohio St/Michigan. But they need help from Louisville and/or Florida.

To backdoor the National Title game Texas also needs to impress human and computer voters (but mostly computer voters).

However...

...Texas could pull a 2003 USC National Title thingy and get a split National Title from the AP. In order to do that, they just need to mudstomp everyone from here on out and impress human voters only. This is a longshot, but I think has a better shot than the BCS right now.

Here's an article from BurntOrangeNation.com to explain it:

Could Texas Win A Split National Title?

By HornsFan Section: Football
Posted on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:36:06 PM EST

Texas' BCS title game hopes are still rather remote, given the number of things that must happen which Texas has no control over. Louisville must lose. Florida can't run the table. And so on.

Texas doesn't have a Tesla machine to help it attain its goals.

Because of that, at least one writer has wondered aloud whether Texas has a better shot at a share of a split national title, via the Associated Press, than a BCS title. It's not a likely scenario, certainly, but neither is playing in the BCS Title Game right now.

What separates the two remote possibilities is that Texas might control its destiny in the AP scenario more than the BCS one. Imagine, for example, that Texas runs roughshod over Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Nebraska (Big 12 title game) to close out its season. Meanwhile, a one-loss Florida team earns a trip to Glendale to face a suddenly shaky - but undefeated - Ohio State team. The Gators win an ugly BCS snoozer 9-7, while Texas trounces Auburn in the Fiesta Bowl by 30 points.

Who do the writers vote #1 in their end-of-year ballots? Some might choose Texas. Maybe even a majority! Suddenly your Texas Longhorns have pulled a USC and...

Okay, let's all calm down. That's not any more likely to happen than a BCS Title Game berth is. In fact, the more you think it through, the above scenario is significantly less likely to unfold. Whereas Texas could slip into the BCS Title Game under a number of scenarios (some quite plausible, some remote), an Associated Press split national title would require things to unfold just so. Among them:
*Ohio State or Michigan limping into the title game.

*Boise State not earning a Fiesta Bowl berth

*Louisville losing

*Louisville's replacement not impressing human voters sufficiently

*A total goose egg of a title game

That's a lot of things that gotta happen, in tandem, for the 'Horns to even be considered as AP national champs. Best to root for Louisville to drop one and some chaos in the SEC.

Time to start riding the Texas covering/mudstomping machine.

 

[B.A.R.]

Why you think I played them this week

 

[RJ Esq]

Why you think I played them this week

Because you are wise beyond your years.

I'm just helping others out by spreading your superior knowledge.

SMODOD.

 

[abcs]

I dont think texas will remain that high. Their sos is average at best. If USC beats cal nd and oregon they will jump over texas.
The question i have for you rj is do you regret not scheduling another cupcake like rice in the nonconf schedule, since more than likely you guys would be undefeted still and have a good shot at the nc game.

 

[RJ Esq]

ABCs--

Are USC's nutts salty?

 

[abcs]

ABCs--

Are USC's nutts salty?

They arent bad..

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm

They are 5th in sos and still havent played the meat of their schedule. Their conf is ranked 1st http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc06.htm

The big 12 or the big 2.. is ranked 6th.

USC went out and scheduled non conf games of Arkansas Nebraska ND.. Please show me another school who lined up teams like this.
Anyway, yes i am still bitter about last years game in pasadena

 

[RJ Esq]

USC is way down and not coming back unless 5 or so one loss teams lose again.

You can't lose to an unranked Oregon State team and hope to get to the MNC.

I don't care about how patsy the other teams schedules are.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

The big deal here is the Big 12's conf strength ranking, which is poor this year...

This goes in cycles...one year the Big 12 is stronger, the Pac 10, the Big 10..etc...

Nothing Texas can do about that...

But SC may just do that w/ those teams coming up...esp if Cal or ND don't lose another game..

What Texas really needed was a very strong Neb or Mizzou to face and that hasn't worked out.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

If the one loss teams stay the same...

I would rank deservedness in this order:

1) FLA - by a mile
2) Texas - losing to just the number 1 team in country
3) SC - assuming they beat one loss Cal and ND

 

[abcs]

I think if USC beats a 1 loss cal team.. a 1 loss ND team.. beats a top 25 oregon team and beats a bowl elgible UCLA team YES they will jump a lot of teams.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

USC will have much better wins overall, but the Arky game does nothing for me in my mind...they weren't close to the same team when they played em...

also, ND isn't a top 10 team..

Cal is the only impressive win..

and no matter who you've beaten...

1 loss to Oreg ST < 1 loss to tOSU (number 1 in country)..

but it's close between those two..

FLA is miles ahead in my mind.

 

[abcs]

If the season would end now and USC and texas win out..
USC would have played ..2,13,16,17,20,27,30,31
Texas would have played 1,18,27,32,33


Interesting..

 

[RJ Esq]

Point of the thread ain't ra-ra Texas Fight or Texas is superior to USC (even though they are).

It's the motivational angle...and making money. Big spreads won't mean shit to Texas.

 

[B.A.R.]

Reagardless, Michigan and tOSU should both be in Glendale regardless of the 18th..unless its a blowout.

 

[ahitspat]

hahahah rj that aggie pic is hilarious. too bad our coach is actually dumber than that kid looks....

 

[abcs]

USC will have much better wins overall, but the Arky game does nothing for me in my mind...they weren't close to the same team when they played em...

also, ND isn't a top 10 team..

Cal is the only impressive win..

and no matter who you've beaten...

1 loss to Oreg ST < 1 loss to tOSU (number 1 in country)..

but it's close between those two..

FLA is miles ahead in my mind.

Well Tenn isnt a top 10 team now.. and might not even be top 20 if they lose to arkansas. You cant discredit wins.UGA isnt in the top 25, so what teams has florida beaten in the top 30 besides LSU to be ranked ahead by a mile

 

[abcs]

From now on Everyone should schedule cream puffs non conf like auburn and a wvu that way they will all have unbeaten records..

 

[RJ Esq]

Ton of ifs...

 

[tru]

sounds like alot of IFs.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Well Tenn isnt a top 10 team now.. and might not even be top 20 if they lose to arkansas. You cant discredit wins.UGA isnt in the top 25, so what teams has florida beaten in the top 30 besides LSU to be ranked ahead by a mile

that's a BS argument...

Arky wasn't a top 50 team when SC played em and they played like it...then they changed QB's, got McFadden back, got their feet wet and become a good football team..

But they're still overrated..

You have to gauge how a team was playing when they played em...

 

[abcs]

If you dont count Notre Dame as a top 10 team..Which makes no sense.. then who has michigan beaten?

 

[RJ Esq]

If you dont count Notre Dame as a top 10 team..Which makes no sense.. then who has michigan beaten?

Their entire schedule. Even the Oregon States of their conf.

 

[SoonerBS]

And, let's see, who actually cares about seeing the Schlonghorns finding a loophole into the National Championship game so that Ohio State can kick the shit out of them again??

OK, seriously, here is my speculation since this thread is dedicated to that genre -- Louisville will not likely be beaten and will probably go to play the winner of the tOSU/Michigan game in the National Championship. It's a travesty of justice for a BIG LEAST team to be represented in the National Championship game, but that is the bullshit system we are under in the BCS. Anyone that watched the sorry ass defenses of WVU and Louisville play the other night should be appalled that the BCS would allow one of them to play in the NC.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

If you dont count Notre Dame as a top 10 team..Which makes no sense.. then who has michigan beaten?

who gives a shit, who mentioned UM??

They haven't lost bro...

Have u seen ND when they play good competition??

Oh wait, they played one game vs a team who was good and got rocked, at home..

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Agreed 100%...how does a Quarterfinal of tOSU vs USC sounds...

Cause that's what woulda had last week...

A playoff would be the shit..

And they said we couldn't go to 12 game system and we did that just fine..now they add a fifth bcs game..

The winner of the tOSU/UM game will wait 51 fucking days until they play again..

51..

 

[abcs]

I just look at quality wins thats all. I dont care if a team ends the year 120 - 0 .. if they beat up on no bodies then i dont think they deserve to be there.
Instead of having teams schedule rice, and sam houston st as non conf games lets just have a playoff. Simple!!

 

[B.A.R.]

If you dont count Notre Dame as a top 10 team..Which makes no sense.. then who has michigan beaten?

They are undefeated. Enough said.

this all u need bro...

 

[JumpOnBoard]

shit...I was trying to quote u not edit you ...lmfao..

 

[B.A.R.]

And, let's see, who actually cares about seeing the Schlonghorns finding a loophole into the National Championship game so that Ohio State can kick the shit out of them again??

OK, seriously, here is my speculation since this thread is dedicated to that genre -- Louisville will not likely be beaten and will probably go to play the winner of the tOSU/Michigan game in the National Championship. It's a travesty of justice for a BIG LEAST team to be represented in the National Championship game, but that is the bullshit system we are under in the BCS. Anyone that watched the sorry ass defenses of WVU and Louisville play the other night should be appalled that the BCS would allow one of them to play in the NC.

UL loses this week to end all that talk anyway

 

[B.A.R.]

shit...I was trying to quote u not edit you ...lmfao..

I see the schenanigans have started....you Ohioians

 

[B.A.R.]

Hey Denfulks..

What is this...put your kids picture up day????

 

[JumpOnBoard]

UL loses this week to end all that talk anyway

where's Corso when I need him...

:spank:

 

[SHSUHorn]

This is what needs to happen.

First Texas still has two games that are gonna boost their SOS and their computer numbers which are games vs Aggie and Nebraska again.

Florida is going to take a HUGE hit in the computers polls and SOS when they play a West Carolina team that is not only Div 1-AA they are a horrible 2-7 Div 1-AA. They are actually 100 spots lower then Texas Div 1-AA opponents my fightin SHSU Bearkats.

Texas will jump Florida after this game is played I promise you. The SEC teams are starting to beat each other up dropping Florida's SOS more and more (ie Tennessee losing to LSU, MSU beating Bama etc).

Texas actually needs Auburn to win out because that will keep the distance between them in Florida beause its not where you stand in the polls its how many points you get. Arkie will then play Florida in the SEC title game because they only have to win 2 of 3 which is now possible with Ainge out.

Louisville has to lose. Bottom line because noone will catch them. I do have them at +3500 to win the MNC in a future bet though which would be sweet.

tOSU has to beat Michigan and hopefully badly. Michigan will fall hard in the human polls if they lose because its so late in the season.

USC needs to lose. Like abcs said if they win out they will jump everybody.

Boise St. HAS to lose at Nevada which is really their only tough game on their schedule (if you call that tough). Boise St. is going to the feista because the ACC blows ass and has noone in the top 16. Your AP scenerio dies here because noone is gonna give Texas props for beating on a team that plays on a blue field.

Texas needs a rematch with tOSU and that is the only way IMO unless Boise St. loses.

 

[SoonerBS]

Hey Denfulks..

What is this...put your kids picture up day????

Huh oh, the secret's out . . . . . . . . .

Now all we need in here is for SHSUHorn to give his theory as to how Texas will get another shot at the NC . . . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

Yeah, there it is . . . . . .

 

[abcs]

wow horn and i agree.. if usc wins out and wins in the rose bowl.. they will have more top 30 wins then the rest of the teams combined. I can see a good possibility of them sneaking away with another ap title.
I mean even a loss to oregon st( who has a chance to finish 10 - 3..)
They would have beaten Arky, Nebraska, Washington ST,Arizona ST, Cal, Oregon, ND, and the rose bowl team. All of those are bowl teams..
No way USC doesnt sky rocket up if they win these next 3 games. It will all be for none if they lose to cal or oregon though. It will be off to the holiday bowl

 

[SoonerBS]

I think it's a shame that every year we have to try to add numbers, debate conferences, judge competition, and all the other shit that goes along with the BCS, whenever a playoff system would eliminate all of this bullshit . . . . . . .

 

[abcs]

So true sooner.. line up the top 8 teams... and then have the bcs bowls and the peach bowl as the bowl games.. Lets get rid of the garbage non conf games and lets play some football.

 

[SHSUHorn]

I just look at quality wins thats all. I dont care if a team ends the year 120 - 0 .. if they beat up on no bodies then i dont think they deserve to be there.
Instead of having teams schedule rice, and sam houston st as non conf games lets just have a playoff. Simple!!

The computers and human polls don't see it like you do. And as far as non conference scheduling with Texas they did happen to schedule the #1 team in the nation as a non conference opponent which even though they lost is giving their SOS a huge boost. In regards to Rice and SHSU, Rice is not 0-10 they have actually won 3 in a row and are probably going to a bowl game. SHSU game was scheduled because Texas wouldn't get into the bidding wars with all the other lower tier team when the new game was added. Why don't you go look at the rest of the top 10 and see who they scheduled outside of USC and you'll see plenty of cupcakes.

And in regards to USC, Texas would beat them and their big 3 non conference opponents on the field especially since two of them were at home. Especially if it was a bowl game (in regards to USC) where Texas would have a month to heal its injuries.

 

[SHSUHorn]

sooner, Hope you guys enjoy 2nd place in the Big 12. Gonna be there for a little while.

What's actually funny is most of us Longhorn fans were loving the Oregon game and the fallout from you guys and now Texas actually needed OU to win that damn game. OU would have ended up 10-1 and probably in the top 10. Damn it.

We used to help you frickin Okies out during your run by winning every game except for the RRS and helped boost your SOS but you guys can't return the favor and it'll be worse next year with no QB and no AP (even though Patrick has looked good).

Swear to god Sooners are good for nothing.

 

[SoonerBS]

sooner, Hope you guys enjoy 2nd place in the Big 12. Gonna be there for a little while.

What's actually funny is most of us Longhorn fans were loving the Oregon game and the fallout from you guys and now Texas actually needed OU to win that damn game. OU would have ended up 10-1 and probably in the top 10. Damn it.

We used to help you frickin Okies out during your run by winning every game except for the RRS and helped boost your SOS but you guys can't return the favor and it'll be worse next year with no QB and no AP (even though Patrick has looked good).

Swear to god Sooners are good for nothing.

We are going to enjoy second place this year. It's looking like second place is going to get the best match-up for postseason. While you guys are slapping the shit out of Boise St in the Fiesta, we will likely get to play a good LSU, Arkansas, Auburn or Tennessee team in the Cotton Bowl. At least we will get to play in a game worth watching.

 

[SoonerBS]

Hey, Horn, have you heard the latest on the internet boards? People (who probably don't know shit) have been saying that since Nutt is playing Dick this Saturday, Mustain is pissed and thinking of transferring to Oklahoma. I don't think there is an ounce of truth to it, but if there is, we would show him lots of love here in Okie!!

 

[SHSUHorn]

Wow. I'll ask my Okie buddy who has some good connections if he's heard anything.

I know Stoopsie is making a serious push for Texas commit John Brantley. Stoop knew Brantley father (played QB for Florida) well when he was at Florida. He even called or texted Branltey after the Texas/OU game telling him he'd be the starter next year.

Lot's of nervous Texas fans right now because Colt lighting up the scoreboard has to have Brantley thinking.

 

[J Galt]

If the one loss teams stay the same...

I would rank deservedness in this order:

1) FLA - by a mile
2) Texas - losing to just the number 1 team in country
3) SC - assuming they beat one loss Cal and ND

This is dead-on. Florida has balance and plays a harder schedule than both of them. Another one to talk about is Cal. Sure they had the hiccup early, but I wouldn't want to play them or Florida on a neutral field right now.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wow. I'll ask my Okie buddy who has some good connections if he's heard anything.

I know Stoopsie is making a serious push for Texas commit John Brantley. Stoop knew Brantley father (played QB for Florida) well when he was at Florida. He even called or texted Branltey after the Texas/OU game telling him he'd be the starter next year.

Lot's of nervous Texas fans right now because Colt lighting up the scoreboard has to have Brantley thinking.

We are going to end up getting a good recruit from somewhere. Texas can't sign every QB recruit in the state, and you are right, with Colt playing decent, there will be very little interest. Welcome to the Bomar syndrome. Hope it doesn't end up biting you like it did us. Next year is going to be a tough year at QB for us I'm afraid. The only saving value is that whoever is running QB will be surrounded in every direction by experienced and good players on offense.

 

[abcs]

Florida plays the toughest schedule says who?? Check the link out? Florida is 2 - 1 against top 30 teams. USC is 4 - 1 and still has 3 more top 30 games to play

I guess were forgetting floridas non conf schedule.. Florida has looked like shit the past few weeks.. they have looked good in the swamp besides that they have looked like last years florida team.

 

[SHSUHorn]

We are going to end up getting a good recruit from somewhere. Texas can't sign every QB recruit in the state, and you are right, with Colt playing decent, there will be very little interest. Welcome to the Bomar syndrome. Hope it doesn't end up biting you like it did us. Next year is going to be a tough year at QB for us I'm afraid. The only saving value is that whoever is running QB will be surrounded in every direction by experienced and good players on offense.

Sooner, yeah anything can happen I mean look at Heupel and White and we here at Texas are just used to getting the Simms and VY's that we are just shocked that a kid who only had 3 stars coming out of a town of 700 and can have a huge frosh year. He's thrown for more TD passes then ANY Texas QB already as a frosh. Very shocked.

 

[HUNT]

aren't you a UGA fan anyways abcs?

 

[SHSUHorn]

Ummm all you guys on Florida's nuts have you seen their offense lately? Sorry I don't think a Tim Tebow sneak will work against some of the big boys in the top 5 with stout DLs. Especially when everyone in the stadium knows he's gonna run the ball.

 

[SHSUHorn]

Bandwagon jumper. He likes the Bears, Heat, and Cardinals too.