What have we learned after 2 games of the NBA Finals?

I also learned (well, it was really just a reinforced theory) that Lebron will always act in an interview directly following a win like he just saved the earth from a giant asteroid.
 
And to answer BAR's question, I've learned the Warriors won't win if they let the Cavs dictate the style of play and tempo. Cleveland is too big and physical to win in a half court game. They gotta uptempo the game but at the same time get better quality shots off. Less 1 pass then shoot a 3. More passes, and cutting to the rim will all help. The Cavs perimeter focused defense is tough to score over. Again, drive that shit. It'll collapse the defense and open up shots later.
 
smh212 said:
B.A.R. started this thread to avoid exactly what the in-games become: A pissing match on capping styles.

I have learned quite a bit in this forum regarding the refs and how they play into the game. From speaking w/ nfafan, emkee, and others, I listen to what they have to say, and form my own opinions on how/if I'm going to incorporate it into my handicapping. The refs do factor into my capping with regards to the overall game, prop bets, etc. They are not the end all be all, but they have become part of my equation.

Going forward, I have been a proponent of the UNDER, but believed the Cavs could and would compete. I have the Warriors at 6-1 to win the whole thing, but that give me options in an elimination game scenario.

Something that all bettors need to realize is that you need to take advantage of all the betting vehicles afforded to you. The days of betting a side/total/first half/second half, and that's it are long gone. I'm a big pace guy, and like to use the efficiency stats when making decisions. That being said, there is not substitute for WATCHING as many games as possible. I DVR and then watch a lot of regular season games to help me confirm or discount certain opinions I form during the season.

Ok, onto game 3: Here my starting points:

1. I made game 1 GS -5 197. Main reason is that we have the two best defensive teams squaring off, and only reason total was in the 200 is due to the public using PF/PA avg's when looking at totals (at least IMO). FINAL 110-102 OT (end of regulation 98-98). It was an under game, and the pace played that way. The projections going into game 1 had GS projected at allowing 98.5 ppg at home, when it reality they were at 93. I thought we would see Cle possession lasting long into the shot clock, and we did. Also took the Cavs +2.5 on a "3pt made prop" as the Cavs entered the series averaging just as many if not more 3pt attempts per game. That one hit as the lost by 1.

2. Game 2: No brainer Cavs bet. See my write up, and again, we get a total in the 200's, which closed at 199. Easiest game of the series to bet IMO, as things get tricky. When Foster and Zarba get together, the Warriors exceed their typical FT attempts...something to consider.

Game 3: So now we have a 10 pt drop on the total. It started at 204 before game 1, and now we have a 194? The 'over' may be a thought to an over-reaction in the line. Prop bets will be examined, as nobody is coming close to the assist party LeBron is having, but is actually a bad sign for the Cavs? When one player has 11 of the teams 14 assists, that can't be good. Going to monitor the line movement, as either club at +130 is appealing, but I think the real value will be found in the player props, and a closer look at performance by QTR.

:shake:
Click to expand...


Great insight...
 
clowncar said:
I had under 1h and full game in both game 1 and game 2 but I think I might move toward over in game three. I don't think GSW can shoot worse than they did tonight, save KT. So I would expect them to rebound offensively and maybe get a few calls more than they did tonight. Curry was embarrassed, or should feel embarrassed and I think he bounces back. But most importantly, I think Cleveland plays with a better pace at home in this one ... better flow ... LeBron will get calls late and be less likely to just stand there dribbling off 12-15 seconds of the shot clock before moving (how boring was it watching GSW big men tap their feet outside the lane to avoid defensive three seconds all night?). The other guys, mainly Smith are going to shoot better at home.

Also, I just think it was a physical brand of hoops they allowed both teams to play tonight and have a feeling that we don't get that style of officiating in game three.

Also, I think there is an energy shift. I thought the fans for the warriors were almost as flat emotionally as the players. It wasn't the same atmosphere as game 1 until late in the 4th when they made that run.

So I will take the full game over and call it a night because I think a lot points to it... though I haven't checked officials.

I wanted to play Cleveland in game two and just couldn't pull the trigger and regret not doing so ..... it was classic NBA101 scenario in almost every sense in regards to betting on the Cavs in game two and I will be kicking myself for days for not doing it.

I think the cavs have scored 99 or more in every home playoff game this year except for game 1 against the bulls... and they are by far the lesser offense here.

OVAH
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Great minds...
 
Anyone thinking about Lebron under props? Game has to be gassed after those first two games. I have to give Lebron credit for heart.
 
Gabe said:
Anyone thinking about Lebron under props? Game has to be gassed after those first two games. I have to give Lebron credit for heart.
Click to expand...


Might be the game he settles more for jumpers and looks to set up guys more...

May be worth a look in some capacity...
 
That the undrafted Aussie the Cavs signed is a better basketball player than the guy they drafted with the #1 overall pick in 2013.
 
Kerr appears to be coaching under-pressure, camera always cuts to him nervously sipping his water. The guy that made brilliant adjustments in each series leading up to the Finals is no longer there, maybe he shows up in Game 3 - who knows.

Refs are who they are, it's more than a coincidence that the road team in Foster games is 10-1 SU. We are all entitled to our own opinions.

Cavs would have lost last night had JR not fouled out.

Dubs are the much better team but their arrogance gets in the way of their potential greatness. Putting it down to youth.
 
I watched every minute of the first two games and GS should feel very fortunate to be 1-1 at this point. Just wonder how that affects them mentally. Clev, on the other hand, should be booming with confidence. Adjusted series odds are Clev +195 right now...better odds on Clev than what was offered for much of the time before game 1 when GS had home court advantage. I know the Kyrie injury factors in, but just see this as being a much closer series than I expected just a couple days ago. As far as total goes, I prefer 1H over to full game in game 3 b/c I expect GS to come out with a quick pace and Clev will oblige at home. Also expect increased ball movement from both teams leading to better looks. If the teams are hitting shots it should go over easily 1H. If the game slows down, it will be in the 2H.
 
Cleveland had to win with the way GS played last night, if not we'd be looking at a sweep so good for them

You got Curry's worst game I'd wager this series, had to capitalize and they did
 
Funny that the final points difference ended up being this...



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Cavs' starting frontcourt with a 71-45 rebounding edge over the Warriors' starting frontcourt in Game's 1 and 2.

What's the most amazing thing about Game 2 is that the Cavs won a road playoff game shooting under 35%. The refs deployed let the Cavs play ugly and dictate the pace, yet the Dubs nearly snatched it at the death with Curry having a really bad night.

Think it all changes in Game 3, expecting Curry to go off. Hoping to see Joey C reffing.
 
Cavs really haven't played well yet. Lebron's numbers are beastly and they have to be, but he hasn't played well at the ends of games. They got a great performance out of Kyrie in game one, Mozgov is playing well, but GS just can't handle him. Delly was tough defensively in game two. We've seen everyone else play better, and have seen Lebron finish, so not sure about the "GS just not playing well" angle. Cavs have another gear too, lads.
 
We learned that experience or lack there of is integral in the NBA finals. If Cleveland was at full force, GSW would be in a hole they probably couldn't recover from. The Warriors have been blessed the entire post season and continue to be. They're gonna find their game, it's just a question of whether or it'll be late enough in the series where it doesn't matter and Cleveland has a shot to steal a ring. On paper these two teams are a horrendous mismatch. Cleveland cant get off good shots late in the game and GSW has shot just about as bad at they physically can up until this point. Do I expect an offensive explosion out of GSW? Yes, perhaps in games 4&5...Cleveland doesn't have the firepower to stay with GSW at the peak of their powers right now. The battle of the boards aside, the Cavs don't have a single advantage...

that is but one...

Their star player has been there before.

96 minutes of regulation didn't decide a thing in the hardest place to win in the NBA this season...why? Inexperience.

Next time there's a similar spot in the future, I hope nobody discounts it. (Games one and two were terrific opportunities....sure they were ATS splits but that's meaningless)
 
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