What have we learned after 2 games of the NBA Finals?

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I know we have the discussion thread but that degens into a few things at times so I wanted to take a page from JoeP and do something like this...

As an aside, what I hae so far so people will get what I am personally looking at...

GS series small...

Game 2 had Bron FT prop...JR Points prop and Cavs +3.5 threes prop...

So ho-hum so far...

Not sure why I did not pull trigger on Mozgov props...I had it written down...


Which brings me to my first point...


-Where the hell was Mozgov late? I know many mentioned this but just absurd.

-I was working so prolly saw 60% of game...and obviously we knew the refs coming in..and looks as though the fouls/FT's went CLE way a lot of game but man I was shocked in last 2 mins plus OT...as many were...whether it was a travel here or slap on arm there...

-Curry was forcing shots/passes/everything...all night...

-Klay would nevver play that many minutes if I bet a player prop on him, lol.

-Love that LeBron took it to hole late whether or not he scored or drew fouls. He was trying to seize the opportunity.

-More ball in hands of Draymond. It could help Curry, imo.

-Breen and JVG were very tough to listen to late in the game.

-Warriors and game 2's...and Warriors and 2h TT unders...just gold...never really took enough advantage this year

-Grats to under guys first two games...should be 2-0...but correct capping.

-Format switch this year helps BIG-TIME imo.

-I'll go back with J.R. in game 3 being at home.

-Delladova, what can you say? Gritty dude.

-Two OT games to start finals. First was near-epic...this was ugly but good drama...

-Thought for totals rest of series? I have a thought in mind but will listen to you smarter guys first...





Okay, fire away...:cheers3:
 
About Mozgov, Blatt was asked about it on Israeli TV and answered that it was due to defensive match ups.
He didn't elaborate, but I assume that he was worried about P&R that would leave him on Curry and to allow Curry to get going...
All regular season, he sat Mogzov on the bench in the 4th quarter and went with Tristan, so the signs were there...
 
I had under 1h and full game in both game 1 and game 2 but I think I might move toward over in game three. I don't think GSW can shoot worse than they did tonight, save KT. So I would expect them to rebound offensively and maybe get a few calls more than they did tonight. Curry was embarrassed, or should feel embarrassed and I think he bounces back. But most importantly, I think Cleveland plays with a better pace at home in this one ... better flow ... LeBron will get calls late and be less likely to just stand there dribbling off 12-15 seconds of the shot clock before moving (how boring was it watching GSW big men tap their feet outside the lane to avoid defensive three seconds all night?). The other guys, mainly Smith are going to shoot better at home.

Also, I just think it was a physical brand of hoops they allowed both teams to play tonight and have a feeling that we don't get that style of officiating in game three.

Also, I think there is an energy shift. I thought the fans for the warriors were almost as flat emotionally as the players. It wasn't the same atmosphere as game 1 until late in the 4th when they made that run.

So I will take the full game over and call it a night because I think a lot points to it... though I haven't checked officials.

I wanted to play Cleveland in game two and just couldn't pull the trigger and regret not doing so ..... it was classic NBA101 scenario in almost every sense in regards to betting on the Cavs in game two and I will be kicking myself for days for not doing it.

I think the cavs have scored 99 or more in every home playoff game this year except for game 1 against the bulls... and they are by far the lesser offense here.

OVAH
 
I think that Cleveland will enjoy home refs, just like GSW did in Game 2.
I fully agree that GSW can't shoot any worse, but I'm willing to assume the same about Cleveland.
I'm worried about LeBron. LeBron won't go out, but Blatt has to make that decision for him. Games 3 & 4 will be played with only one day's rest and LeBron can't continue to play the same amount of minutes. LeBron said that playing 48 minutes of regular season is equal to 41 - 42 minutes of playoff game, so 50 minutes equal something like 60 minutes of play and that's crazy.
Blatt has to find a way to sit him for 4 - 5 minutes in the first half and 2 - 3 minutes in the second half.
I would play Perk on Bogut a bit, to see what can come out of that, especially if there will be minutes, with Bogut on the floor and Curry resting. Perk can annoy Bogut a bit and every foul by Bogut and Green, is a blessing for Cleveland.
I loved to see Miller finally getting minutes.
Cleveland needs instant offense and Smith, Jones and Miller, coming of the bench, can provide just that. Using all three, will allow Blatt to spot the hot hand and go with it.

Cleveland's work on defense against GSW is a work of beauty. Cleveland killed ball movement in GSW offense. Just killed it.
GSW turned in to ISO and P&R team mostly and that's much easier for Cleveland to handle (especially with Tristan and Bron as bigs - they just switch everything).
Curry hit 90% from the left corner and today, we hardly seen any corner three pointer from the corner. Golden State made only one corner three pointer and it was Barbosa in a fastbreak, off Curry's pass. Other than that... zero.
 
Too little ball movement, too much standing around, and too many quick shots on offense for the Warriors in game 2. Only game this postseason they have assisted on less than half their made FGs.

Quarter by Quarter thru first 2 games it is 3-3 w/ 2 even. Minutes wise it's almost 3-1 in Cleveland's favor. Series price last night after the game was Golden State -200...now -210 not sure how that's justified.

LeBron has been great but was 1-10 in the 4th Quarter and OT in game 2...Can he keep this up ? He is also a different person as far as mental makeup from the 2009-2011 version.

Golden State's margin of error is greater than Cleveland's. If the Warriors can knock down 35% of their 3s they win the series.
 
The refs in game 2 WERE NOT home friendly... You saw one or two plays that they didn't call the cavs way and are making that assumption. The refs called things that the crew in game 1 let slide the entire game. They were not bad calls.... Just calls that they could easily have held their whistles and not called.


The NBA is not fixed. It's influenced. The refs don't make bad calls. They just make calls that benefit whatever side the agenda is - extending the series. The refs have tendencies. The league knows how each official officiates and IMO they delegate the refs how they see fit. I hate saying it but it's just too obvious and it's very hard to ignore.

Game 2 was terrible basketball IMO. Most of the Warriors thought it would be a cakewalk now that Kyrie is out of the picture and they dogged it. That coupled with the refs was just a recipe for disaster.

For game 3, I'm expecting Lebron to take a lot less shots and look to distribute more. He needs help and the cavs need to move the ball. I don't know who's in charge of the offense but whoever it is needs to realize this. I'll be on an assist prop for Lebron if I find one.

I agree with VK on the over depending on the refs.
 
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Also I'm kicking myself for not playing more props in game 2. The situation presented so much value with those juicy FT props on Lebron and Mozgov.

Mozgov gets to the line a ton because the Warriors can't stop him inside so they have to foul him to stop the easy dunks.... And he's a great FT shooter for his size/position. Over 3.5 FTM was +160 and over 2.5 FTM was -115. Lebron over 7.5 was +115 but over 9.5 was +400. Just seems crazy to me.
 
@ArashMarkazi: The road team has won the last 11 games officiated by Scott Foster during these playoffs.

@fantasysportbet: When Scott Foster is refereeing, you bet on Lebron. Simple as that


@SN_Ohio: 1. The ref tonight is Scott Foster.


2. Home teams are now 1-12 in games that he has refereed.


3. The Warriors are home.


4. We aren't.



@warriorsworld: Scott Foster and Tony Brothers together for game 2? Awful combo

:rofl:
 
Yep. I am not 100 % on refs dictating the outcome of games, however, to say they do not influence it is a little naive.

If you rewatch games he's officiated (Foster) he has a knack for making a key call/noncall that will result in a 5 pt swing/momentum shift/ or a key player getting in foul trouble.
 
Ok... and how in your eyes, refs style favored Cavs? They allowed a bit more contact than usual, but that favores the Warriors I believe.
Cleveland mostly plays iso on LeBron and a lot of plays in the paint, so if you let teams play, it should hurt more the Cavs and not a shooting team like the Warriors.
I don't see how refs style helped Cleveland one bit.
 
Bookies cannot be happy with the NBA. Just type Scott Foster into Twitter. It's getting to the point where it's common knowledge.


But Lebron is REALLY good at working officials too... Based on their tendencies. He knows how to adjust his game based on how refs call games.
 
divol said:
Ok... and how in your eyes, refs style favored Cavs? They allowed a bit more contact than usual, but that favores the Warriors I believe.
Cleveland mostly plays iso on LeBron and a lot of plays in the paint, so if you let teams play, it should hurt more the Cavs and not a shooting team like the Warriors.
I don't see how refs style helped Cleveland one bit.
Click to expand...

cleveland wants to muck up the game so there isn't an easy flow for the Warriors to get into transition and get in a rhythm with their 3s. That's really all it comes down to.... Cleveland is bigger than the Warriors. They are more physical in the paint on offense. I don't really see how you think the Warriors benefit and I'm pretty certain I heard all the talking heads saying the same thing prior to the series
 
Ok... and how in your eyes, refs style favored Cavs? They allowed a bit more contact than usual, but that favores the Warriors I believe.
Cleveland mostly plays iso on LeBron and a lot of plays in the paint, so if you let teams play, it should hurt more the Cavs and not a shooting team like the Warriors.
I don't see how refs style helped Cleveland one bit.
 
And the ATS numbers speak for themselves on Foster and Brothers.

The two of them LOVE attention. They LOVE it. They get off to the crowd booing lol. That can't be emphasized enough.
 
nbafan88 said:
And the ATS numbers speak for themselves on Foster and Brothers.

The two of them LOVE attention. They LOVE it. They get off to the crowd booing lol. That can't be emphasized enough.
Click to expand...

No, they really not. 12 - 1 means nothing. How many times we seen that a ref finishes the season 50 - 20 ATS in favor of the home team and the year after that, 20 - 50 in favor of the road team...
 
LeBron shakes teammates hands differently...

aSDsFHj.gif
 
Lol 17-62 on 3's.
Had over 19.5, how much would u have bet on the over if were told they would shoot 62 treys in the game?
 
divol said:
No, they really not. 12 - 1 means nothing. How many times we seen that a ref finishes the season 50 - 20 ATS in favor of the home team and the year after that, 20 - 50 in favor of the road team...
Click to expand...


lol you're something else.



nbafan88 said:
You play the warriors at your peril.... the NBA has spoken

[TABLE="class: tableStatic"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Official[/TD]
[TD]Home ATS Record[/TD]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 30%"]Scott Foster[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](215-276, -72.9)[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](231-270, -50.3)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 30%"]Tony Brothers[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](200-270, -78.9)[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](232-244, -21.5)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 30%"]Zach Zarba[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](231-257, -37.2)[/TD]
[TD="width: 30%"](240-252, -23.3)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...


The ATS records are just one aspect... Next time you see a game with Foster or Brothers... For one quarter just fixate your viewing on the referees. Don't watch the players.


If you don't want to believe the refs were pro cavs that's fine. But saying they were pro gsw is another ludicrous statement from you. Idk what else to tell you. You say things that the rest of the world sees differently. You're unique.
 
Lebron's post game presser was great. He is spectacular at using the media to get through to his team and to the fans.
 
I watched the game. Most of the game, there were bad calls on both teams. I don't know who got the benefit of the doubt more, but I'm willing to assume it's Cavs for the sake of argument. But, in the final few minutes + OT, the calls went only one way and that's GSW's way.
I agree that there can be teams/ players/ coaches that refs don't like. I'm sure that Blake Griffin and Green aren't ref's favorites.
But as someone that watched the game, I didn't feel that refs helped Cleveland to win, but I did feel that GSW got few home calls in the end of the game.
 
The end of the game doesn't matter if the refs didn't help the cavs in the first 47 minutes.

Its not they went out looking to help. It's just the way they officiate. It's part of the game. Who decides the referee assignments I have no idea. NBA refs have a big impact on how games are played. More so than any other sport IMO
 
I agree, at least partially. But many times, we are see fix when there isn't one, I'm sure of that.

Also, you and em big believers in refs, so why didn't you take Cleveland? Because you're not sure about it yourself. Otherwise, you would have placed big money on Cleveland tonight.
 
I did take Cleveland.... And lebron's FT prop. I don't get what you're trying to say. You want me to send you screen shots? I told everyone I could yesterday that the cavs had a very good chance to win straight up because of the refs. The fact that I didn't post my cavs wager shouldn't matter. Information is all that matters. I took the spread and ml last minute like I do with most bets.


The point I'm trying to make right now is you said the refs were pro Warriors and that's simply false. So people need to know that when they read this thread.


And I don't know why you're saying it either. Do you want to make it look like the cavs overcame the help the refs gave the Warriors and Blatt did an outstanding job rallying his team through adversity?
 
It's not false. You can say that you disagree, but you can't say that it's false.
I won't argue with you. You can believe that refs helped Cavs win it. It's your right of course.
 
It's false when the rest of the world sees it the other way and when stats rebut your point.

all people see is the final minutes of the game where the Warriors got the calls but the first 40+ min of pro cavs call mean nothing? Ok
 
Ok, so when I'm reading in many places that it was home friendly, I should just think that they are outside the world?
At least two articles that I read today, said that Cleveland can expect at least in one home game, home friendly refs, just like they were tonight and one that said that Warriors couldn't win, despite getting help from the refs.
Let's make a poll in this forum, if I'm the only one that thinks that Cavs didn't get help from the refs today, how about that?
 
I don't think the refs (nor their "officiating style") did the Cavs any favors whatsoever, the entire game. And if the Warriors wanted to go to the line more, all they had to do was attack the basket instead of gunning. Just harder for jump shooters to draw fouls, unless you can get a guy in the air and jump into him like Curry does. You see shit where it isn't, nbaf. Cavs won the game with defense. Nearly gave it away, but won it with defense.
 
nbaf must be a fucking millionaire. He know exactly how games will play out by looking at refs, umps, and what day of the week it is.
 
The articles you read focus on the last minutes of the game. It's the time of the game when the average fans tune in... How often do you hear stupid people say the last five minutes is all they should play because that's all that matters? Those articles are geared towards them. I digress. It's a silly argument. I'm just not getting high on the cavs over game 2. That's really the main point.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I don't think the refs (nor their "officiating style") did the Cavs any favors whatsoever, the entire game. And if the Warriors wanted to go to the line more, all they had to do was attack the basket instead of gunning. Just harder for jump shooters to draw fouls, unless you can get a guy in the air and jump into him like Curry does. You see shit where it isn't, nbaf. Cavs won the game with defense. Nearly gave it away, but won it with defense.
Click to expand...

I gave my thoughts on what would happen hours before it happened. The free throw shooting is not everything tip. It's the change of momentum offensive foul on Green. The over the back fouls that go uncalled so many times. The offensive goal tending on Livingston that was not offensive goal tending ( or at least wouldn't be called by many refs) .... Free throws are not the only way refs change games. It's about pace and stopping the 10-0 runs from the warriors. Of course the cavs defense was a huge reason why but the refs were not impartial. Even if they help 10-20%, that is huge. It's not how many calls a team gets... It's when the calls are made. There's a big difference.
 
I think divol, I, and others are tired of you stating opinion and calling it fact. My opinion is that the officiating, and "officiating style", had no more impact on the game than any other game. I sure wish their style wasn't to homecook all the late calls. Those are some talented refs, they really got in the heads of the GS shooters.
 
You're right it's my opinion. Supported by actual plays and ATS data and actually watching hundreds of games with the two officials.

And I'm tired of you going off of me on how I make my plays and the factors that go into it. You have no right to judge how someone makes their plays. How about you contribute a little more information to the forum instead of worrying about how I wager. Thanks.


Another reason the last two minutes is so important for officials is because the NBA reviews the last two minutes play by play and they release any incorrect calls. So yes. The NBA referees actually have to be impartial here otherwise they'll be put on blast.

The average fan doesn't pay attention to the whole game. They don't remember anything but the last minutes of the game. So if you're going to listen to them instead of watching the entire game with your own eyes then you're doing yourself a disservice.
 
I have learned that watching these 2 offenses makes me long for the Spurs ball movement in last years Finals. The winner of this title will be the worst champion in a decade if not longer. I will still of course be watching but I couldn't get over GSW with the ball in OT make 1 pass and chuck up a jumper. If the ball goes in the post to Draymond a shot is going up no matter what. So frustrating to watch.

Amazing to think that basically Lebron and the Knicks are tied 1-1 in the Finals with someone.
 
nbafan88 said:
You're right it's my opinion. Supported by actual plays and ATS data and actually watching hundreds of games with the two officials.

And I'm tired of you going off of me on how I make my plays and the factors that go into it. You have no right to judge how someone makes their plays. How about you contribute a little more information to the forum instead of worrying about how I wager. Thanks.


Another reason the last two minutes is so important for officials is because the NBA reviews the last two minutes play by play and they release any incorrect calls. So yes. The NBA referees actually have to be impartial here otherwise they'll be put on blast.

The average fan doesn't pay attention to the whole game. They don't remember anything but the last minutes of the game. So if you're going to listen to them instead of watching the entire game with your own eyes then you're doing yourself a disservice.
Click to expand...

Congrats on your voluminous library of ATS data. It had nothing to do with the outcome of last night's game. Maybe it takes the average fan, unblinded by layers of self-congratulatory revisionist hindsight, to understand why the game turned out like it did. And congrats on your Cavs wager. Sounds like you bet 'em for all the wrong reasons and got lucky.
 
Guy goes, "I bet the Cavs because the refs like the road team." Refs don't help the road team, but Cavs win. Guy goes, "See, told you."
 
aplous said:
I have learned that watching these 2 offenses makes me long for the Spurs ball movement in last years Finals. The winner of this title will be the worst champion in a decade if not longer. I will still of course be watching but I couldn't get over GSW with the ball in OT make 1 pass and chuck up a jumper. If the ball goes in the post to Draymond a shot is going up no matter what. So frustrating to watch.

Amazing to think that basically Lebron and the Knicks are tied 1-1 in the Finals with someone.
Click to expand...

Its really makes you appreciate the Spurs. I hope popovich's decibels continue his ways once he retires.

The sport of basketball needs to change at the collegiate level. The three ball has become way too big of a factor and it has taken away from the fundamentals. It's sad. Hopefully it eventually reverts back but it starts with coaching in college.
 
I've learned that Bogut is a bum, Thompson is going to be overpaid, and Kerr has gone with lineups that make you shake your head.
 
nbafan88 said:
Its really makes you appreciate the Spurs. I hope popovich's decibels continue his ways once he retires.

The sport of basketball needs to change at the collegiate level. The three ball has become way too big of a factor and it has taken away from the fundamentals. It's sad. Hopefully it eventually reverts back but it starts with coaching in college.
Click to expand...

Nah, it starts with all the AAU shit. They're ruined well before college
 
Let's get back on track...........

B.A.R. started this thread to avoid exactly what the in-games become: A pissing match on capping styles.

I have learned quite a bit in this forum regarding the refs and how they play into the game. From speaking w/ nfafan, emkee, and others, I listen to what they have to say, and form my own opinions on how/if I'm going to incorporate it into my handicapping. The refs do factor into my capping with regards to the overall game, prop bets, etc. They are not the end all be all, but they have become part of my equation.

Going forward, I have been a proponent of the UNDER, but believed the Cavs could and would compete. I have the Warriors at 6-1 to win the whole thing, but that give me options in an elimination game scenario.

Something that all bettors need to realize is that you need to take advantage of all the betting vehicles afforded to you. The days of betting a side/total/first half/second half, and that's it are long gone. I'm a big pace guy, and like to use the efficiency stats when making decisions. That being said, there is not substitute for WATCHING as many games as possible. I DVR and then watch a lot of regular season games to help me confirm or discount certain opinions I form during the season.

Ok, onto game 3: Here my starting points:

1. I made game 1 GS -5 197. Main reason is that we have the two best defensive teams squaring off, and only reason total was in the 200 is due to the public using PF/PA avg's when looking at totals (at least IMO). FINAL 110-102 OT (end of regulation 98-98). It was an under game, and the pace played that way. The projections going into game 1 had GS projected at allowing 98.5 ppg at home, when it reality they were at 93. I thought we would see Cle possession lasting long into the shot clock, and we did. Also took the Cavs +2.5 on a "3pt made prop" as the Cavs entered the series averaging just as many if not more 3pt attempts per game. That one hit as the lost by 1.

2. Game 2: No brainer Cavs bet. See my write up, and again, we get a total in the 200's, which closed at 199. Easiest game of the series to bet IMO, as things get tricky. When Foster and Zarba get together, the Warriors exceed their typical FT attempts...something to consider.

Game 3: So now we have a 10 pt drop on the total. It started at 204 before game 1, and now we have a 194? The 'over' may be a thought to an over-reaction in the line. Prop bets will be examined, as nobody is coming close to the assist party LeBron is having, but is actually a bad sign for the Cavs? When one player has 11 of the teams 14 assists, that can't be good. Going to monitor the line movement, as either club at +130 is appealing, but I think the real value will be found in the player props, and a closer look at performance by QTR.

:shake:
 
Good post, smh212, little voice of reason on a Monday afternoon.

I kind of think game three goes way over. Cavs offense should be less clunky at home, maybe even run a bit. And it would be so Cleveland (the city or idea, not the team) for Golden St. to shoot the lights out in game three.
 
My first post following the thread title's instructions, still a homer observation. The biggest unforeseen mismatch in this series is the Russian inside against anyone on GS. Bogut looks like a motionless, giant stuffed animal (the ones no one ever wins at the fair) trying to check this guy.
 
The defense has been pretty good by GS holding Cleveland to low 30's shooting %. I'll take that anyday. What's hurting them though are some timely offensive rebounds that are crushing. They can't let dellavadova (sp) get that offensive board at the end of the game.

What's also hurting the Warriors is the lack of penetration. And that starts with Curry. He falls in love with the 3 way too much. I'm not saying abandon it, as he's a great shooter, but drive to the basket more because it'll either get some foul calls, or open up other jumpers. Right now dova is all in Curry's grill, and I would be too if all he was going to do is shoot jumpers. And you saw Curry has it in him at the end of the game on that pick and roll with Draymond he split Lebron and Thompson drove it to the hole and converted to tie it and eventually send it to OT. Drive early, and it'll free him up a little for a clearer jump shot.

It's a game of inches. When Lebron drove late and was blocked by Draymond, Iggy got the ball but threw it through Curry's legs. We secure that rebound and we probably win. Speights missing that dunk too at the end of the 3Q hurt. Gotta convert shit like that. And I'm sure Cleveland has a bunch of close calls they should've converted. We could be up 2-0. Cleveland could be up 2-0. But it's 1-1 and it's now a best of 5. Great series so far.
 
Good post, coge. I wish you the worst of luck. (Just in this series. Not life.)
 
tipyerbartender said:
Good post, coge. I wish you the worst of luck. (Just in this series. Not life.)
Click to expand...
Thanks man, you too. Both of us are dying for a championship. I know the city of Cleveland has been suffering longer but the Warriors haven't done shit in my lifetime. And although my Raiders have had success in the 80's, we've been a laughing stock of the league the past decade. And I can't celebrate the San Francisco side of the bay: Giants world series and the Niner's success. I'm an east bay guy: Raiders, Warriors, and the A's. The city of Oakland might explode if the Warriors don't win this. Hell, Oakland might explode if they do win it with the losers who burn down cities when they win.
 
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