What do you do with South Florida?

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
Ok ... making my numbers and have come across a team that I simply do not know how to rate. The reason is because there is a WIDE discrepancy between my paper talent analysis and the way the talent actually performs. Obviously from the title the team is south Florida. That team underachieved at Southern California levels last year except against weaker competition. I understand the heart issues with USC players but the USF thing from last year boggled my mind. I am relegated to avoiding their games early me thinks but wondering how others are seeing this team this year. I believe I had them in my top 20 preseason last year ( Obviously one of the handful of teams that I am way off on in a given year ) and their performance was what you saw....... I know I had them overrated but how much was just bad performance/fluke .. how much was QB ?? Coach/player mix??? normal florida mcdouglism? Basically looking for others takes on this squad heading into 2013.
 
VK:
My way of thinking is similar to yours and I believe more should adopt it: If you don't have enough information on a team, still make a PR for that team, but take a wait and see attitude on them (i.e. _ Don't be involved on any of their games until you've established some confidence in their relative strength). There are still several instances where I might have a line at Team A favored by 14 over Team B and the reality is I'm not taking Team B at plus 20 nor am I taking Team A at minus 7.
Using Linde's comparison, I have USF 38 behind Bama and 17 behind L'ville.

Good luck,
Paul
 
We are seeing it somewhat tha same sofar pstone, sofar early very early numbers for me would be bama -36.5 ville -19
 
Since we have had some line comparison, wonderin what tha gap is from 1st to last in people's rankings. Don't really need teams listed unless u want to, just number.

1st -63 over 125
 
lindetrain said:
What's your range when you take out Georgia St and ODU, tru? Mine is about 56 or so.
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Am I missing something on odu? Steele site has them as fbs independent lindy mag has them as fcs independent this year and moving to fbs next season
 
From everything I'm reading online, they are gonna be an FCS Independent. Did Steele include them because he thought their games vs. FBS opponents may be lined?
 
I'm not sure why he has them listed with fbs, on his site he has this

FBS Team Pages: Get Game-By-Game Stats, Statisical Leaders and Box Scores on all 126 teams!

Should only be 125, I haven't got his mag yet does he have them listed in tha mag also or is it just online?
 
Taggart & his Harbaugh style system can immediately return dividends. They'll be asked to play D & control the ball. Don't think he'll ask too much of the QB to start. Taggart will insist upon lots of motion, running the play clock to 3secs, power runs & PA
 
Defense should be much improved, Aaron Lynch is the real deal & Chuck Bresnahan coordinating. Issue will be the DBs, they got lit up LY. If they can get any DB play, Eveld should be enough on offense in Taggart's system to make use of some special Wrs.
 
On paper they are miles worse year over year but obviously they are likely to win more games. The important thing to know about Old Dominion is not really their relative strength as it is to know that they are likely to be in high scoring games. They run a lot of plays per game.
 
don't really know how to make a Georgia State # without doing a ton more work than I am willing to do for it .. would almost have to figure out the strength of FCS and specific GaSt opponents to do it and I am not willing. A few points difference means less with lines that will be that big but still.
 
Texas is another team that is hard to figure out. Two years ago they had a dominating defense. They returned just about everyone and were then arguably the worst defense in the history of the school ... Sure they had some key injuries but how in the heck are we to know which version shows up this year? Outgained opponents by just a few hundred yards last year .. nothing spectacular and yet they sit in my top ten preseason after first draft of PR... Could easily be a 30th ranked team if Brown/Diaz continue to do less with more. Their defense and the FIU defense from last year are just hard to figure out .....
 
Not sure I get all the Stanford love .. not that I don't think they are good ( I do ) ... but outgained by sjsu, duke, Washington, Arizona ( tie ), notre dame, Washington state, and ucla last year..... They match up great with Oregon but I don't see how anyone could have them generally rated higher than Oregon. Hogan shmogan ......
 
VK said:
Ok ... making my numbers and have come across a team that I simply do not know how to rate. The reason is because there is a WIDE discrepancy between my paper talent analysis and the way the talent actually performs. Obviously from the title the team is south Florida. That team underachieved at Southern California levels last year except against weaker competition. I understand the heart issues with USC players but the USF thing from last year boggled my mind. I am relegated to avoiding their games early me thinks but wondering how others are seeing this team this year. I believe I had them in my top 20 preseason last year ( Obviously one of the handful of teams that I am way off on in a given year ) and their performance was what you saw....... I know I had them overrated but how much was just bad performance/fluke .. how much was QB ?? Coach/player mix??? normal florida mcdouglism? Basically looking for others takes on this squad heading into 2013.
Click to expand...

http://www.gousfbulls.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7700&SPID=2981&SPSID=37319
 
VK said:
Not sure I get all the Stanford love .. not that I don't think they are good ( I do ) ... but outgained by sjsu, duke, Washington, Arizona ( tie ), notre dame, Washington state, and ucla last year..... They match up great with Oregon but I don't see how anyone could have them generally rated higher than Oregon. Hogan shmogan ......
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IMO you are significantly undervaluing the impact of the QB change. Other than the UCLA rematch all of those you list above occurred with Nunes taking the snaps. You are in effect saying that Hogan isn't a big deal, but citing all the games where he didn't play and how terrible said results were as evidence, which isn't consistent. Stated another way, Stanford outgained Coloradao, Oregon St, Oregon, UCLA, and Wisconsin when Hogan was in charge. They would have beaten both UW and ND with Hogan. He added mobility that Nunes didn't have but even more important than that was his effect on the passing game. The ball came out on time consistently which was a principle that Nunes didn't get. I think if Shaw had played his cards differently, pulled the plug on Nunes and made the switch early, it would have been Stanford facing Bama and not ND. I'm not necessarily a huge Hogan fan relative to other QBs in the conference or around the country, but in the context of what he needed to do for that offense he was an immeasurable upgrade.

If someone were to say that they think Stanford would have the nation's best defense this year, I wouldn't be inclined to argue. They are my #2 overall. I do hate them though and hope they go 6-6.
 
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As for USF, they certainly are a lot like Clemson used to be under Bowden, or NC State under Amato, or Arizona under Stoops, Notre Dame under Weis, Prince at KSU, or Neweasel at fUCLA, they were a lock to underachieve. I am giving Taggart the benefit of the doubt cause he has earned it. I moved them up a point or two from where they finished just based on the coaching change. What Silky said is essentially correct, the less that the QB is asked to do, the more competitive they will be. I am biased in favor of USF cause I'm already holding a +16 ticket at MSU. I couldn't help it. Game is going to be a battle of field goals, and the discrepancy from my line was large enough to warrant a play irrespective of any player/coach personnel situations.
 
TheGarfather said:
IMO you are significantly undervaluing the impact of the QB change. Other than the UCLA rematch all of those you list above occurred with Nunes taking the snaps. You are in effect saying that Hogan isn't a big deal, but citing all the games where he didn't play and how terrible said results were as evidence, which isn't consistent. Stated another way, Stanford outgained Coloradao, Oregon St, Oregon, UCLA, and Wisconsin when Hogan was in charge. They would have beaten both UW and ND with Hogan. He added mobility that Nunes didn't have but even more important than that was his effect on the passing game. The ball came out on time consistently which was a principle that Nunes didn't get. I think if Shaw had played his cards differently, pulled the plug on Nunes and made the switch early, it would have been Stanford facing Bama and not ND. I'm not necessarily a huge Hogan fan relative to other QBs in the conference or around the country, but in the context of what he needed to do for that offense he was an immeasurable upgrade.

If someone were to say that they think Stanford would have the nation's best defense this year, I wouldn't be inclined to argue. They are my #2 overall. I do hate them though and hope they go 6-6.
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I think the qb upgrade is minimal but agree it is there. I am just saying the team was a luckbox of sorts and that if they are top 5 material or their defense is top 5 material then they have made a huge jump YoY and not a small one. I guess their ooc schedule had some good offenses but the 76 allowed to buffs skews. Just predicting they will be over valued.
 
VK said:
Texas is another team that is hard to figure out. Two years ago they had a dominating defense. They returned just about everyone and were then arguably the worst defense in the history of the school ... Sure they had some key injuries but how in the heck are we to know which version shows up this year? Outgained opponents by just a few hundred yards last year .. nothing spectacular and yet they sit in my top ten preseason after first draft of PR... Could easily be a 30th ranked team if Brown/Diaz continue to do less with more. Their defense and the FIU defense from last year are just hard to figure out .....
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I for 1 am drinking the Texas Kool Aid. They ain't MNC back but they are borderline 10 wins back vs a not so easy schedule.
 
I'm with the majority of you on Stanford. Another year removed from Luck and Harbaugh, and while all their losses last year were narrow ones, they very easily could've lost to SJSU, Zona, Wazzu, Oregon St, and Oregon. Also caught UCLA in a perfect scenario as the Bruins laid down to avoid facing Oregon in the P12 title game. Hogan is an upgrade over Nunes for sure, but not much around him at the skill positions, and I don't exactly see them bringing in top-tier talent. Where everyone was way too low on them entering last year (the win total opening at 7 was silly), this top five talk now is crazy IMO. If we get a win total at 9.5, which I think is very possible, gonna be hard for me to not go under.
 
lindetrain said:
I'm with the majority of you on Stanford. Another year removed from Luck and Harbaugh, and while all their losses last year were narrow ones, they very easily could've lost to SJSU, Zona, Wazzu, Oregon St, and Oregon. Also caught UCLA in a perfect scenario as the Bruins laid down to avoid facing Oregon in the P12 title game. Hogan is an upgrade over Nunes for sure, but not much around him at the skill positions, and I don't exactly see them bringing in top-tier talent. Where everyone was way too low on them entering last year (the win total opening at 7 was silly), this top five talk now is crazy IMO. If we get a win total at 9.5, which I think is very possible, gonna be hard for me to not go under.
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yup
 
The Big 12 is a total toss up. I wouldn't be surprised if 6 teams won the conference. Don't sleep on TCU, they have to play @ OU, @ OSU, and @ KSU so there schedule is really tough. Oh and open up the season against LSU. If it wasn't for that schedule, I would favor them in the Big 12, I really like this team.
 
I got OU u9.5 -150 last night. Brutal schedule, gonna be damn tough to win 10 games unless Belldozer is the next Cam Newton...
 
Brutal 3gm stretch @ ND, vs TCU, vs UT. That stretch there makes or breaks ur bet Linde. They go 3-0 the under is toast. 2-1 & they must win @Baylor or @OSU. 1-2 or 0-3 your getting paid. Like your chances though
 
Also don't forget..........OU gets 3 byes TY. Before ND, before Baylor & before OSU. Their 3 real road games, gotta like that as an OU backer.
 
GridironGems said:
The Big 12 is a total toss up. I wouldn't be surprised if 6 teams won the conference. Don't sleep on TCU, they have to play @ OU, @ OSU, and @ KSU so there schedule is really tough. Oh and open up the season against LSU. If it wasn't for that schedule, I would favor them in the Big 12, I really like this team.
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Shadiest bunch in cfb right now
 
twinkie13 said:
I think OU is the class of the B12 also

where are we off?
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Return 4 starters on D, from an at best fbs average defense. 4 new starters on d that are either freshman or sophomores.
replacing mr Oklahoma Landry jones and his 16,646 passing yards.

By 2012 year end they weren't tha class of tha b12, what additions have they done in tha offseason to get to that point from last year? All god sees is subtractions from last years team.
 
Maybe tha belldozer will be tha next cam, but I'm bettin he has a last year Logan Thomas kinda season
 
I forget when rotations for week one dropped last year, when should we see them somewhere?
 
Fuck defense in the Big 12, it's shootout central. OU got RB 2wrs, 4/5 OLs returning and the replacement def guys are big time playing under stoops system. This could be a GOOD OU team
 
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