What did we learn after week 4 of Ncaaf

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
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phife said:
I don't feel comfortable with MSU as #2 (then again, I don't know who I'd feel comfortable with at that spot - Ole Miss?)...but I'm going to need to see MSU lose vs a valid opponent before I write them off. I try not to go overboard if a team doesn't cover a few early season games against inferior competition.
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I think it just depends on whether you rank teams this early on merit or what you think they will be. Either is fine with me, but if you're ranking teams based on accomplishment to this date, there are several really good teams that wouldn't sniff the top 10 yet. That's why we have power rankings
 
phife said:
I don't feel comfortable with MSU as #2 (then again, I don't know who I'd feel comfortable with at that spot - Ole Miss?)...but I'm going to need to see MSU lose vs a valid opponent before I write them off. I try not to go overboard if a team doesn't cover a few early season games against inferior competition.
Click to expand...


Ole Miss, Utah...


The problem is, Sparty has exactly two games they will actually play a quality opponent...and that is assuming UM gets through the next few weeks..


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[TD]3-0 (0-0)[/TD]
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[TD]4-0 (0-0)[/TD]
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[TD]12:00 PM ET [/TD]
[TD]1,375 available from $49[/TD]
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[TD]8:00 PM ET BTN[/TD]
[TD]2,386 available from $70[/TD]
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[TD]Sat, Oct 17[/TD]
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[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]2,967 available from $196[/TD]
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[TD]Sat, Oct 24[/TD]
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[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]2,012 available from $37[/TD]
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[TD]TBD[/TD]
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[TD]Sat, Nov 28[/TD]
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[TD]TBD[/TD]
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That benchmark Oregon win isn't as pretty now. That is a game they should have lost if not for a terrible throw and some home cooking from the officials #SpartyBob

I can see them being bored in the other games, they simply are not as good as two years or even last years version which was getting smoked by Baylor before they got their heads outta their arses.

Simply said though, they started out so high in polls, with the only loss coming to OSU this year, perhaps a UM upset(shall see) they will finish right on the cusp of the playoff.
 
NO on Utah. Again, overreaction. I don't even have them #2 in their conference.

To me, MSU was clearly the better team than Oregon despite the late push by the Ducks.. It was a little concerning that they were unable to put that game out of reach.
 
phife said:
NO on Utah. Again, overreaction. I don't even have them #2 in their conference.

To me, MSU was clearly the better team than Oregon despite the late push by the Ducks.. It was a little concerning that they were unable to put that game out of reach.
Click to expand...

No overreaction bud.

That is a very solid team. Not top two at end of year but top 10 yes.

The problem with pre-season rankings is that a team like Utah starts out at #23 so it is a slow climb to an accurate ranking.

Late push by UO yes, but they had a TD taken away earlier as well. Very bad officiating that night. First flag came in middle of 4th for Sparty. Trust me, glad Sparty won for my bankroll but they were not 'clearly' the better team.

I understand your narrative as an OSU guy, with that awful schedule you gotta pump up the rest of the opponents.
 
I thought Utah could win the Pac12 South before the Michigan game, now I think they should be favored over UCLA.

Ridiculously good defense, professional running back. What's not to like?
 
B.A.R. said:
I understand your narrative as an OSU guy, with that awful schedule you gotta pump up the rest of the opponents.
Click to expand...

LOL @ 'pumping up opponents'. Utah #2? Talk about pot meet kettle.

I'm not pumping anyone up and I don't care where anyone was ranked in preseason as those polls are meaningless to me. I said that MSU doesn't seem like a #2 team. I would just like to see them lose first before I completely abandon ship (yes, their easy schedule makes this scenario a bit more problematic). As of a week or 2 ago I saw many people listing MSU with a higher power ranking than OSU. Again, overreactions. People are insanely restless and are eager to make proclamations about this team or that (hello Mississippi schools of last year) but it's just too damn early and it looks like every team in the nation is in the process of 'figuring it out'.

When Utah runs through the PAC please get back to me. Right now I have Stanford, UCLA, and USC all rated higher with a slight asterisk on USC because they're such a poorly coached team.
 
B.A.R. said:
That benchmark Oregon win isn't as pretty now. That is a game they should have lost if not for a terrible throw and some home cooking from the officials #SpartyBob

I can see them being bored in the other games, they simply are not as good as two years or even last years version which was getting smoked by Baylor before they got their heads outta their arses.

Simply said though, they started out so high in polls, with the only loss coming to OSU this year, perhaps a UM upset(shall see) they will finish right on the cusp of the playoff.
Click to expand...

At some point, that has to stop being an excuse. Not just for Mich St and tOSU, but every supposedly elite team. It's certainly interesting to see the differences in narrative by fans and media alike. Granted we've already lost a game, but our fans are in absolute panic mode because we only beat La Monroe by 34, and a shutout where they didn't cross our 30 yard line, in what is a pretty extreme sandwich situation. Mich St looks god awful (by report, I didn't watch) against Air Force and C. Mich, and it's ok because they are just coasting until they play Ohio St in November. I wish the polls would be more fluid early on once we have a few games to base it on. Utah has 2 wins better than nearly any other team in the top 50, yet they are just now creeping into the top 10. Mich St won't drop unless they lose, and that may not be until Nov 21, regardless of how they play. That really hurts a team like Utah because they basically have to wait their turn until then, when in reality, they should be top 5 by the end of September
 
phife said:
LOL @ 'pumping up opponents'. Utah #2? Talk about pot meet kettle.

I'm not pumping anyone up and I don't care where anyone was ranked in preseason as those polls are meaningless to me. I said that MSU doesn't seem like a #2 team. I would just like to see them lose first before I completely abandon ship (yes, their easy schedule makes this scenario a bit more problematic). As of a week or 2 ago I saw many people listing MSU with a higher power ranking than OSU. Again, overreactions. People are insanely restless and are eager to make proclamations about this team or that (hello Mississippi schools of last year) but it's just too damn early and it looks like every team in the nation is in the process of 'figuring it out'.

When Utah runs through the PAC please get back to me. Right now I have Stanford, UCLA, and USC all rated higher with a slight asterisk on USC because they're such a poorly coached team.
Click to expand...

I was joking about Utah #2...their resume 'for now' is better than anyone else...but it is the first month.

Ole Miss, no joke there, they are top couple teams...as of now.
 
gps_3 said:
At some point, that has to stop being an excuse. Not just for Mich St and tOSU, but every supposedly elite team. It's certainly interesting to see the differences in narrative by fans and media alike. Granted we've already lost a game, but our fans are in absolute panic mode because we only beat La Monroe by 34, and a shutout where they didn't cross our 30 yard line, in what is a pretty extreme sandwich situation. Mich St looks god awful (by report, I didn't watch) against Air Force and C. Mich, and it's ok because they are just coasting until they play Ohio St in November. I wish the polls would be more fluid early on once we have a few games to base it on. Utah has 2 wins better than nearly any other team in the top 50, yet they are just now creeping into the top 10. Mich St won't drop unless they lose, and that may not be until Nov 21, regardless of how they play. That really hurts a team like Utah because they basically have to wait their turn until then, when in reality, they should be top 5 by the end of September
Click to expand...


Great post.

After 2007, I can see your fanbase being mad at a 34 point win versus ULM. They need to beat the brakes off dem boys.

And the solution to all of this...

No polls till October. No preseason polls, nothing. And get rid of the coaches poll. That is the worst.
 
Pre season/early season polls only ruin the integrity of this playoff system that should solve everything, but they create talking points obviously and that's really what it's all about
 
B.A.R. said:
Ole Miss, Utah...


The problem is, Sparty has exactly two games they will actually play a quality opponent...and that is assuming UM gets through the next few weeks..


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[TD]Fri, Sept 4[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]1-0 (0-0)[/TD]
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[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2483"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 12[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]2-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2005"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 19[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]3-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-2117"]
[TD]Sat, Sept 26[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]4-0 (0-0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-2509"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 3[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]12:00 PM ET [/TD]
[TD]1,375 available from $49[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-164"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 10[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]8:00 PM ET BTN[/TD]
[TD]2,386 available from $70[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-130"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 17[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]2,967 available from $196[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-84"]
[TD]Sat, Oct 24[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]2,012 available from $37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-158"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 7[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD [/TD]
[TD]1,521 available from $96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-120"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 14[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]4,437 available from $24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddrow team-23-194"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 21[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]1,227 available from $210[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenrow team-23-213"]
[TD]Sat, Nov 28[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]
[/TD]
[TD]TBD[/TD]
[TD]4,638 available from $24[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...
One of the worse OOC schedules in the country. Can't wait to see them play a game that is worth a damn. Or one where they aren't a 20+ point fav and cant cover.
 
Honestly AFA should have beat MSU. They had a fumble scoop and score in the first half and 3 trips to the red with no scores in the second half and lost by 14
 
View attachment 39539

Like Bowling Green says, "Whats the Big deal"?

MAC teams are 10-2 ats vs the Big Ten (only loss was Mia, Oh at Wisconsin -and- Edit correction, forgot ILL whacked Kent St).

I guess Ohio St (vs 2 MAC teams), Michigan St (vs two MAC teams), Minnesota (vs two MAC teams), Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Penn St are just too bored to get up for those games.

Wisconsin is probably going to be Alabama's 6 or 7th or something in that neighborhood toughest game this year. If Badgers played tOSU or MSU this year it would be a big feather in their strength of schedule cap.

I love Big Ten football, because I love all football, but not seeing the big boys in that league get challenged on a regular basis like other teams do in the PAC 12, SEC or Big XII gets really tiresome.
 
Last edited:
Like Schrute, I read some of Bill Connely's work. Here's waht he wrote in his TCU preview

"After a few years of untimely injuries, TCU suffered almost none last year.Running back B.J. Catalon missed five games (and was replaced by the even more effective Aaron Green), No. 4 receiver Deante' Gray missed two, and that was about it for the offense. On defense, the top nine linemen missed a combined one game, the top four linebackers missed zero, and the top nine defensive backs missed zero.

That's an immaculate run that will be almost impossible to replicate."

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/9/28/9406129/tcu-football-2015-injuries-playoff
 
Or another way to look at it,

Ohio St will face 5 B1G teams over their next 8 games that are combined 1-6 ATS vs the MAC.
 
Last edited:
gps_3 said:
At some point, that has to stop being an excuse. Not just for Mich St and tOSU, but every supposedly elite team. It's certainly interesting to see the differences in narrative by fans and media alike. Granted we've already lost a game, but our fans are in absolute panic mode because we only beat La Monroe by 34, and a shutout where they didn't cross our 30 yard line, in what is a pretty extreme sandwich situation. Mich St looks god awful (by report, I didn't watch) against Air Force and C. Mich, and it's ok because they are just coasting until they play Ohio St in November. I wish the polls would be more fluid early on once we have a few games to base it on. Utah has 2 wins better than nearly any other team in the top 50, yet they are just now creeping into the top 10. Mich St won't drop unless they lose, and that may not be until Nov 21, regardless of how they play. That really hurts a team like Utah because they basically have to wait their turn until then, when in reality, they should be top 5 by the end of September
Click to expand...


Hate to say it, but the old saying, "win out/conference and you will be fine(unless you are B12 LOL, nice job there)" usually works....usually.


But again, losing early seems ok and losing late is a dagger(or SHOULD be)...


there is no perfect solution


I will say this, it seems that teams will slip if they do not win with some panache' at some point. I believe it happened last year or so.



But count me in on Utah. I think they are very good, and honestly they have the pedigree. More than most of the rest of their P12 brethren really.....
 
But count me in on Utah. I think they are very good, and honestly they have the pedigree. More than most of the rest of their P12 brethren really.....
Click to expand...

Every week Utah as had atleast 1 player named as PAC 12 Player of the Week:

Week 1 DPOW - DB Justin Thomas
Week 2 DPOW - LB Gionni Paul
Week 3 STPOW - KR Cory Butler-Byrd
Week 4 OPOW - QB Travis Wilson
Week 4 STPOW - P Tom Hackett
 
B.A.R. said:
Great post.

After 2007, I can see your fanbase being mad at a 34 point win versus ULM. They need to beat the brakes off dem boys.

And the solution to all of this...

No polls till October. No preseason polls, nothing. And get rid of the coaches poll. That is the worst.
Click to expand...

polls are crap, but I wish more guys did they vote like this guy
 
Alan Tongue said:
polls are crap, but I wish more guys did they vote like this guy
Click to expand...

Agree. Seems most want to hold onto their preseason predictions as long as possible. I don't see any reason why you can't have huge fluctuations week to week based on actual games played. Has to be more accurate than just moving teams up for a win or behind all undefeated after a loss, regardless of opponent. Generally it works itself out, but with the parity these days, some deserving teams are going to have a much tougher time because they have the wrong name on their jersey or are a victim to people's preconceived narrative
 
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