Weekend Plays from North of the border

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
YTD: 27-27-4 +$1108.34


Parlay: 5-9

Weekend is finally here and the English Premier League is upon us. It may be tricky at times because of the parity in this league. However, there can be value for a lot of road teams because oddly enough only certain teams can be deemed as really good at home or really crap on the road. With that being said here are my plays.

Manchester Utd vs Fulham Sunday 8:30 am EST Kickoff
Manchester Utd -1.5 @ 2.05 $200 to win $210
Man Utd in the past 2 seasons have loss only 2 home games during league play. This is out of 19 games per season. They have one of the World Class football stadiums in Old Trafford, which is known as a very intimidating spot for any visiting team to play against. Man Utd have had 2 significant transfers this season. Striker Ruud Van Nistelrooy left Utd for Real Madrid after a dispute between manager Alex Ferguson's squad selection near the end of last season. With that you take away one of the Worlds Best best hitmen. He had served Man Utd well scoring 150 goals in 219 appearances for the Red Devils. His scoring prescence will surely be missed. Man Utd did bring in a talented Midfielder in Michael Carrick from Tottenham for 18.6 million pounds. Now, in my opinion, that was a complete waste of money because he definitely does not deserve to be listed as that much and Tottenham just got the better end of the bargin. Whats worse is, on August 5, Michael Carrick sprained his ankle during a preseason game and is now out for about 3 weeks, what a way to start your career in Man Utd. Now as for Fulham, I regard them as relegation battlers. Last season the Cottagers had the worse road record in the entire league. 19 road games played 1 win 4 draws 14 loss'. Fulham have a few disgruntled players who are anxious to leave the club. They did solidify their midfield with Jimmy Bullard from Wigan but there are still defensive gaps that manager Chris Coleman has to figure out. There is no doubt Fulham will have their share of goals but they also let in too many. They were tied with the 3rd worse defense in the league conceeding 58 goals in total, 37 of those on the road. Here are some past h2h's between Man Utd and Fulham

Feb 04, 2006PremiershipManchester UFulham4 - 2
Oct 01, 2005PremiershipFulhamManchester U2 - 3
Mar 19, 2005PremiershipManchester UFulham1 - 0
Dec 13, 2004PremiershipFulhamManchester U1 - 1
Feb 28, 2004PremiershipFulhamManchester U1 - 1
Oct 25, 2003PremiershipManchester UFulham1 - 3
Mar 22, 2003PremiershipManchester UFulham3 - 0
Oct 19, 2002PremiershipFulhamManchester U1 - 1
Dec 30, 2001PremiershipFulhamManchester U2 - 3
Aug 19, 2001PremiershipManchester UFulham3 - 2

As you can see the only stumbling block for Man Utd at home was 3 seasons ago, this was when Fulham had one of their best seasons finishing 9th, from then on, it goes down hill.

Other proof of Fulham's pathetic road woes are shown in their past 8 away games.

May 04, 2006PremiershipSunderlandFulham2 - 1
Apr 29, 2006PremiershipManchester CFulham1 - 2
Mar 25, 2006PremiershipAston VillaFulham0 - 0
Mar 15, 2006PremiershipLiverpoolFulham5 - 1
Mar 11, 2006PremiershipEvertonFulham3 - 1
Feb 26, 2006PremiershipBoltonFulham2 - 1
Feb 04, 2006PremiershipManchester UFulham4 - 2
Jan 23, 2006PremiershipWest HamFulham2 - 1

One win and it was against Man City when they had a dramatic last 5 mins where they scored 2 goals in the last 6 minutes. That won't happen here against Man Utd.

In conclusion, Man Utd have an interesting scenario to deal with. Striker Wayne Rooney and midfielder Paul Scholes picked up preseason Red Cards that the English FA ridiculous now includes as a match ban, therefore after the Fulham match, both players will serve a 3 match ban. It is vital that Utd gain a solid result at home on opening day before they miss the services of their 2 key players. I think Utd's defense will be their most prized asset this entire season so long as all four can manage to go through the season healthy.
Prediction: Manchester Utd 3-0 Fulham
 
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English Premier League

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Saturday 10:00 am EST Kickoff
Aston Villa ML @ 11.00 $20 to win $200

Haha this is purely a homer bet. Thought i might as well take it for shits and giggles. Arsenal have quite a list of injuries, Freddy Ljungberg, Lauren, Senderos and Diaby are out of this clash while Jose Reyes' future with the club is still uncertain, he has disrupted the harmony on the squad after stating his intention he wants out of Arsenal.
Aston Villa recently got a new manager in Martin O'Neill and a new majority share holder in Randy Lerner. Martin O'Neill has managed 2 preseason games with a win and a loss in the Netherlands. He has a very short squad to work with but he has been put in a difficult situations before in Leicester City and Celtic and in both clubs he exceed expectations by brining in glory to the clubs respectively. Whether he can work his magic in day 1 is unknown. Villa got hammered last season 5-0 at Highbury, but Arsenal are now in their new home Emirates Stadium. It is not as intimate as highbury and it will be a slower pitch to get use to. Find it interesting that a lot of football clubs playing in new stadiums have a harder time adjusting to the surroundings so HOPEFULLY that will be the case here. I know its a far stretch to say a club that is listed @ 11.00 underdogs will get a straight up win, but hey, i'm a Villa fan for life so i can have all these crazy expectations i want!
 
Crazy parlay time.

Friday
Grenoble ML (French Ligue 2) 2:00 pm EST Kickoff
Strasbourg ML (French Ligue 2) 2:00 pm EST Kickoff
Metz 0 AH (French Ligue 2) 2:00 pm EST Kickoff
TNS ML (Wales Premier League) 2:30 pm EST Kickoff
Farul Constanta ML(Romania Divizia A) 1:00 pm EST Kickoff
Austria Lustenau ML(Austria Erste Klasse) 1:00 pm EST Kickoff
$50 to win $602.11
 
Mike does your record include the hedging you do in live betting?
 
abcs--thelegend said:
Mike does your record include the hedging you do in live betting?

nope, if it did i would my record would be at +$8000 hahaha

These are just posted plays, a lot of the live betting i do is usually on Over/Under on Corners, Next Goal and what not. It can really help a bankroll but it can also destroy it. Just pick the spots right and you can rack up that account extremely fast.
 
Romania Divizia A

Farul Constanta vs Unirea Urziceni 1:00 pm EST Kickoff
Farul -1.25 @ 1.95 $210.53 to win $200

1 loss in their last 8 home games is enough for me to indicate Farul's dominance at home. Unirea have miserably scored only 1 goal in their first 3 games of the season and funny enough that was enough to secure their first win. Unirea is a newly promoted squad that have lacked any transfer activity to bolster their squad. However, i do advise you to tread lightly as Farul are missing a few players. Farul should win this game but knicking in a goal to win by 2? I will take the risk as Unirea will definitely try and look for a draw but at a great home team that is a tall order
 
Bolton vs Tottenham Saturday 12:15 pm EST Kickoff
Tottenham (0) AH @ 1.875 $114.29 to win $100
Spurs were very busy this off season. Getting some quality players such as striker Dimitar Berbatov and defensive midfielder Didier Zokora but releasing Michael Carrick and Andy Reid as the key players. This squad is certainly on the up, they have vast quality however i am a little wary with how manager Martin Jol runs the team. He often tweaks his formations the wrong way. Bolton on the other hand had a harder time luring players to the club. Because of its name, it is very difficult for manager Sam Allardyce to lure in the big names. Problem with Bolton is the players they lost. They had originally signed Dietar Hamman on a free but only to get rebuffed a few hours later when Hamman quit and signed for Man City. It was a weird scenario. Adding to Big Sam's woes is the players that have left or been released by the club. 5 players left, 4 of whom were regular starters of the first XI or at least played an integral role for Bolton. Bolton also isn't the greatest scoring team. They do not play attractive football but they get the job done....barely. Here are some past h2h's:
Apr 30, 2006PremiershipTottenhamBolton1 - 0
Nov 07, 2005PremiershipBoltonTottenham1 - 0
Feb 01, 2005PremiershipBoltonTottenham3 - 1
Oct 27, 2004League CupBoltonTottenham2 - 2
Oct 23, 2004PremiershipTottenhamBolton1 - 2
Apr 17, 2004PremiershipBoltonTottenham2 - 0
Nov 01, 2003PremiershipTottenhamBolton0 - 1
Mar 24, 2003PremiershipBoltonTottenham1 - 0
Oct 20, 2002PremiershipTottenhamBolton3 - 1
Apr 20, 2002PremiershipBoltonTottenham1 - 1

As you can see Tottenham does not have history on their side. They don't enjoy playing at Reebok. Bolton are a good club at home, but with those certain players leaving and no real solution for a backup, i just find it difficult for Big Sam to coupe with the loss'. I think Tottenham's speed and overall quality will be just enough to knick in a goal. I expect a rather gritty match with a lot of aggression in the midfield with Zokora and Gianni
Prediction: Bolton 0-1 Tottenham
 
Well it looks like good times are ahead for Aston Villa. New ownership and today's gutty effort signals a possible top-half finish this year. Really impressed with the way they played (it was on Fox Sports down here, got to watch most of it)...
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Well it looks like good times are ahead for Aston Villa. New ownership and today's gutty effort signals a possible top-half finish this year. Really impressed with the way they played (it was on Fox Sports down here, got to watch most of it)...

I sure hope so, i played a future for Aston Villa which i'll post in a second. But there is nothing Villa could of done at this current time but just defend and defend and wait on their few chances. I am happy Villa didn't get routed and i'm even more estatic they managed to get a point from a title challenger. As regards to the ownership, that is still undecided because apparently another group wants to hand in an application this week, but i honestly think Lerner is the better man for it because he has disposable income that is well known, this other gorup is basing their money on shares of others who have yet to be indentified to the public. So a little dicey.
 
congrats to your boys Mike! haven't watched the game but great result.

My boys were dissapointing a bit, (I watched the match) but I'm not worried.
A bit dissapointed to be honest, I thought Liverpool didn't create our chances well enough, too keen on losing the ball in the crucial moment, no matter if it's Gonzalez slipping or Fowler missing the pass, something always happened.

Sheffield took the lead in 46 after they scorched home a header, and Liverpool tied it up after Fowler converted a penalty.
Jagielka tackled Gerrard in the box.


They just weren't effective enough as it is expected from a top class side but there's still time for the final tweaks, Rafa knows best. Aurelio had a few very good moves (what a free kick, Kenny almost let in that one), but all in all it wasn't a match to be especially proud of.

I thought United defended well, they let in a bit too many corners (ffs every ball in their penalty area = corner for us, too bad Crouchie wasn't there to net it in).

Too bad that Carra and Riise had to leave the game, waiting for the news on their health.

Btw, I only took the under in this match, as I didn't agree with numerous previews of how this was going to be a stroll in the park for the Reds.

Don't think Sheffield United will spill too many points at home this season, they're a solid side with a bunch of great fans, kudos to the atmosphere.

Rafa knows what he's doing, he has numerous new players in the team and has to make a team from them, I thought guys like Agger, Pennant and Aurelio are already fitting in nicely.


:shake:
 
well a draw is better than a loss to start the season. I think Sheff Utd took out more of a positive from that match than Pool but, its a road game for Pool and i expect Anfield to be too much of an intimidation for any team including Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal.

Adding:
Norwegian 1. Division
Tromsdalen vs Sparta Sarpsborg 12:00 pm EST Kickoff
Over 3 @ 1.90 $410 to win $369
 
Nice call on United -1.5, Rooney and Ronaldo were running things.

Came pretty close with Villa, Arsenal may struggle getting used to playing away from comfy Highbury.

Have't seen the new Emirates Stadium, but the pitch can't be as small as Highbury.
 
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