Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Here we go!! As always, it's great to get a chance to shoot the breeze with everyone here, and I hope everyone is doing well and feeling great.
As for week zero, I was hemming an hawing a bit on whether to make any official plays, but what kind of sackless weak ass would have an opportunity for action after almost 8 months of waiting and sit out a week, regardless of how many games are being played? Not me. Here's what I came up with.
1. Iowa State +3.5(-115) v Kansas State(DK): This game is of course in Dublin, and it's a conference game, meaning one of these two teams will have a pretty massive leg up in a Big 12 conference race that will probably be as wide open and wild as it was last year. I feel like regardless of who the dog was in this game, they would probably be the way to go. Now that 3.5 can be found, I pulled the trigger. I show these two teams as being very similar, but I see why K State is favored. If you were going to handicap the game flow here, you'd assume Iowa State would want to run it and the Cats strength is their run defense. Also, Iowa State is coming off a terrible last 6 weeks of run defense last year that netted them a #125 ranking in FBS in yards per carry against. I'm not sold, however, that Dylan Edwards can be a 20 carry guy, and the K State offensive line is pretty new, and it looks like their assumed starter at LT, Ohio State transfer George Fitzpatrick will be out. That leaves them thin. As bad as they were against the run last year, they held their own against K State on the ground, and on offense, both Abu Sama and Carsen Hanson had nice games against the Wildcats despite having a banged up OL. They have some new parts on the OL but they are almost always solid there. They lose their superstar tandem at WR, but I'm a Rocco Becht fan and he looks like he has a chip on his shoulder, and Chase Sowell is a nice add at receiver from ECU. The Clones always use the TEs as well, and they bring back their top two guys at that position. K State has all kinds of question marks at corner,(looks like a couple of mostly untested true sophs will be starting) so we'll see if Becht can make some noise there. Ultimately, both of these coaches are resourceful as dogs, but K State has had some issues away from home when favored, going only 5-9-2 ATS over the last 3 years, which is uncharacteristic for them. I see this as a 50/50 game, and it'll be played close to the vest since its so crucial for both teams. As a result, I see value in the opportunity to take the 3.5 with Iowa State.
Iowa State got outgained, especially on a per play basis, but it still seemed like they were the right side. Good call by Campbell at the end going for it on 4th down to seal it. Two usually well coached teams were very sloppy, but this one looked like a dog play and it worked out that way.
2. Fresno State +13.5 @Kansas:(BOL) If you look hard enough, you can probably find 14 at -115 or so, but I couldn't find it under -120 in the books I'm with. We'll go with 13.5. I've always been a fan of Jalon Daniels and especially Lance Leipold, but I'm squeamish about laying this much with Kansas. Daniels made some major strides in the second half of the season, but his overall numbers were underwhelming (14/12 ratio) and he loses just about EVERYONE in terms of his weapons. No Devin Neal, no Grimm, Skinner and Arnold. It's all new guys for him to rely on, and they are brand new at tackle as well. They made an internal hire to replace Jeff Grimes at OC, so we'll see if the scheme bounces back because Daniels was a much different QB without Andy Kotelnicki. Defensively, Kansas is a bit flimsy on the DL and they lose 2 pros at corner in Bryant and Dotson, who combined for 9 picks. Fresno brings in former NDSU national champion coach Matt Entz as well as a very good staff to get started on the post Tedford era, and they are likely to be a heavy running outfit. I like the RB Donnelson(6 yards per carry) and they bring in an acceptably competent QB in EJ Warner. I think they'll have some success running the ball, and I think Entz profiles as the type of guy who will have a proud program like Fresno ready to compete, especially if they are intentional in the run game.
We may have overestimated Entz here. Ku looked much better on offense than they did under Grimes, and they controlled the line of scrimmage, which I thought they might struggle to do. Actually that's an understatement. Can't make assumptions from one year to the next. Not gonna kick myself too much here because a back door could have been in play if Fresno had anything to offer on offense. Them's the breaks.
Nothing on the other games. Hope everyone has a profitable week!
As for week zero, I was hemming an hawing a bit on whether to make any official plays, but what kind of sackless weak ass would have an opportunity for action after almost 8 months of waiting and sit out a week, regardless of how many games are being played? Not me. Here's what I came up with.
1. Iowa State +3.5(-115) v Kansas State(DK): This game is of course in Dublin, and it's a conference game, meaning one of these two teams will have a pretty massive leg up in a Big 12 conference race that will probably be as wide open and wild as it was last year. I feel like regardless of who the dog was in this game, they would probably be the way to go. Now that 3.5 can be found, I pulled the trigger. I show these two teams as being very similar, but I see why K State is favored. If you were going to handicap the game flow here, you'd assume Iowa State would want to run it and the Cats strength is their run defense. Also, Iowa State is coming off a terrible last 6 weeks of run defense last year that netted them a #125 ranking in FBS in yards per carry against. I'm not sold, however, that Dylan Edwards can be a 20 carry guy, and the K State offensive line is pretty new, and it looks like their assumed starter at LT, Ohio State transfer George Fitzpatrick will be out. That leaves them thin. As bad as they were against the run last year, they held their own against K State on the ground, and on offense, both Abu Sama and Carsen Hanson had nice games against the Wildcats despite having a banged up OL. They have some new parts on the OL but they are almost always solid there. They lose their superstar tandem at WR, but I'm a Rocco Becht fan and he looks like he has a chip on his shoulder, and Chase Sowell is a nice add at receiver from ECU. The Clones always use the TEs as well, and they bring back their top two guys at that position. K State has all kinds of question marks at corner,(looks like a couple of mostly untested true sophs will be starting) so we'll see if Becht can make some noise there. Ultimately, both of these coaches are resourceful as dogs, but K State has had some issues away from home when favored, going only 5-9-2 ATS over the last 3 years, which is uncharacteristic for them. I see this as a 50/50 game, and it'll be played close to the vest since its so crucial for both teams. As a result, I see value in the opportunity to take the 3.5 with Iowa State.
Iowa State got outgained, especially on a per play basis, but it still seemed like they were the right side. Good call by Campbell at the end going for it on 4th down to seal it. Two usually well coached teams were very sloppy, but this one looked like a dog play and it worked out that way.
2. Fresno State +13.5 @Kansas:(BOL) If you look hard enough, you can probably find 14 at -115 or so, but I couldn't find it under -120 in the books I'm with. We'll go with 13.5. I've always been a fan of Jalon Daniels and especially Lance Leipold, but I'm squeamish about laying this much with Kansas. Daniels made some major strides in the second half of the season, but his overall numbers were underwhelming (14/12 ratio) and he loses just about EVERYONE in terms of his weapons. No Devin Neal, no Grimm, Skinner and Arnold. It's all new guys for him to rely on, and they are brand new at tackle as well. They made an internal hire to replace Jeff Grimes at OC, so we'll see if the scheme bounces back because Daniels was a much different QB without Andy Kotelnicki. Defensively, Kansas is a bit flimsy on the DL and they lose 2 pros at corner in Bryant and Dotson, who combined for 9 picks. Fresno brings in former NDSU national champion coach Matt Entz as well as a very good staff to get started on the post Tedford era, and they are likely to be a heavy running outfit. I like the RB Donnelson(6 yards per carry) and they bring in an acceptably competent QB in EJ Warner. I think they'll have some success running the ball, and I think Entz profiles as the type of guy who will have a proud program like Fresno ready to compete, especially if they are intentional in the run game.
We may have overestimated Entz here. Ku looked much better on offense than they did under Grimes, and they controlled the line of scrimmage, which I thought they might struggle to do. Actually that's an understatement. Can't make assumptions from one year to the next. Not gonna kick myself too much here because a back door could have been in play if Fresno had anything to offer on offense. Them's the breaks.
Nothing on the other games. Hope everyone has a profitable week!
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