WKU and SHSU has caught my eye. The -9.5 and the O/U 61.5.
Both teams reloading heavily via portal. Sam Houston with new coach Lango, former OC at Wisc.
When I think Hilltoppers I see fast paced offense and lots of scoring. But wait a minute! In 2022 the offensive pace was 23.1sec per play. 2023 dropped to 25.1sec and last year 26.4sec per play. Scoring per game 2022- 36.3, 2023- 28.7, and last yr 24.5 pts per game. Helton has been slowing down.
Lango at Wisc started out at a 24.1sec per play clip at Wisc in 2023. Fired after 10 games last year, Wisc slowed to 26.1 sec per play.
So right now I'm not seeing fast pace by either squad. Especially rebuilt squads. Both have offensive line, RB's and WR holes filled by transfers and both have rebuilt defenses.
WKU has former Albiline Christan QB Mcivor via portal who can pass but doesn't have legs to run. This could be an issue as the offensive line doesn't look better than maybe good.
At this point I'll dig a little deeper into the starters from the portal and keep an ear open in August about these two teams. My biggest lean is Under 61.5 right now. If I hear either team is going fast pace or WKU wants to return to fast pace that will give me pause.
Teams last year ran on the Hiltoppers and my gut says Lango does the same, tries to keep it close as a +9.5 dog. SHSU has a returning QB and running back Green from Indiana.
Using Ourlads for expected starters for both teams find, IMO, WKU did better in the portal and WKU is projected to have 16 of 22 starters from the portal! The Hilltopper defense looks the weakest with three projected starters with little to no experience, a DT, LB, and CB. On offense the line has only two returning players and center has little experience. The three portal grabs on o-line are all experienced and from Akron, Georgia Southern, and ULM. Not too shabby. QB McIvor from Albilene Christian can chuck the ball. In last season's opener vs Texas Tech he pushed them to OT with 36/51, 506 yds and 3 tds. Running back from Austin Peay, La'vel Wright looks average but is exp.
Sam Houston only has three portal starters on offense according to Ourlads, a C, WR, and RB. The center has junior college exp and the projected left tackle will be a soph making his first start. TE has one catch to his record. QB Watson is a returner with 1800 yds last year, 12 tds with 8 ints. Watson also had 647 yds rushing. Running back Elijah Green, from Indy, has five yrs exp with only 185 carries. Durabilty issue??? WR's show decent experience.
Bearkats defense has eight projected portal starters. I rate this defense the weakest here as four portal projected starters have little to no experience. A DE played in one game, DT from WV has one tackle, CB from Wisc played special teams mostly, NB from Texas St shows little exp.
So I now see why the -9.5 for WKU. A proven QB, decent avg o- line on paper, all wr's portal grabs with exp at Charlotte, BYU, and Western Ill. Combine that with what looks like a patched together Bearkat defense and the advantage does appear to be WKU. SHSU offense has more returners but a new coach and new system.
And the 61.5 O/U doesn't look as good now. Many days before this game to ponder some more.......
