Week Two Plays & Analysis by Inspekdah

Inspekdah

Inspekdah

My man, Michael Jordan!
Updated 9.05.08 (Plays & Record)



Week 2 so far...

NORTHWESTERN -6.5 TO WIN 10 UNITS

BOWLING GREEN -4.5 TO WIN 4 UNITS

NOTRE DAME -20.5 TO WIN 5 UNITS

OKLA ST -14 TO WIN 3 UNITS

SOUTH CAROLINA -9 TO WIN 3 UNITS *LOSS*

FLORIDA -21 TO WIN 3 UNITS

TEXAS TECH -9 TO WIN 1 UNIT
Plus, -10 to Win 1/2 Unit

SOUTH FLORIDA -14 TO WIN 1 UNIT

IOWA 1Q -6.5 -130 TO WIN 1 UNIT, Plus, -140 TO WIN 1/2 UNIT *WIN*

BG TT Over 34.5 -115 TO WIN 1/2 UNIT *WIN*
 
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Dude, not to call you out, but you said that the line on TT v. Nevada should be in the 24 range and that the Red Raiders were going to cover that number. Now, it comes out at 9, and you fire a measly 1 unit at it. What gives?
 
J Galt said:
Dude, not to call you out, but you said that the line on TT v. Nevada should be in the 24 range and that the Red Raiders were going to cover that number. Now, it comes out at 9, and you fire a measly 1 unit at it. What gives?
Click to expand...

LOL
:36_11_6:
 
That was in BAR's discussion thread right? I think I predicted like 30 lines that night and I was sippin on more than just the Red Raiders koolaid that night....

T.T. should cover 9, but the line catches me off guard. They also let up more on defense than they should have vs. a D1AA opponent which is huge cause for concern. I was expecting a near shut out from a defensive unit I expected to be vastly improved.

Wolfpac are no slouches and could cover 3 td's vs. Tech any day of the week. I think if Tech was home you would see more than a 6 point home field swing... more like a 10-14 point swing. But giving altitude issues and Tech obviously looking beyond opponents like this... I agree now that this is much closer to where the line should be.

I read alot into lines and this screams take Tech... I'll watch the line, do some more research as the week goes on and adjust my units on some games accordingly.

Fair point J Galt. I was way off here but I honestly thought it would open at around 13.5 to 16 but Tech's defense is obviously not where it needs to be right now.


Helmut - please change your she-male looking avatar, that woman is god awful looking. Thanks.
 
line -

I lean Tenny in the night game. It's a very popular play but I can't make a case in my mind to back UCLA in this spot.

I don't see why everyone under the sun is in love with this Fresno play. I think they are going to be a up and coming club... very young and finished last season with a ton of momentum. However, cross country flight into a loud and hostile environment... and Rutgers is now at the stage where they replenish talent rather than simply watch it walk out the door (ex. Ray Rice)... should be a close game but right now small lean to Rutgers if I can get -3.
 
OK, that's cool. A man admits when a man is (potentially) wrong, I respect that. Good luck to you this weekend.

:shake:
 
Adding...

S.C -1 / T.T -1 / Philly Eagles +1.5 *LOSS w/ S.C -1*

Risking 4.4 to Win 4.0 Units


So far on the right side of all line movements... but my largest play hasn't budged! Wonder how there can really be any Duke love out there.
 
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Iowa 1Q -6.5 -130 to Win 1 Unit

Added 1/2 Unit to Texas Tech -10


Love the -6.5 1Q #'s.... doubt FIU can stop them. Kansas SHOULD have covered last week... 1H, Game, 2H. Iowa has a better ground game and IMO a better defense than Kansas as well.
 
GL this week bro. Maybe we can even get a Niners victory Sunday to cap off the weekend.
 
man, 10 units on NW on the road? Please tell me why. I am on the fence for this game
 
Thanks guys.

ETG- I guess I am more the NBA/CBB type bettor/capper. I like situational plays as much as I do looking at soft numbers. I find it effective Weeks 1-4 in CFB over the past couple seasons.

Let's see where to start for NW.

They came away from Cuse with little injuries and get their defensive line back in tact after the nose tackle got suspended. They still stiffled Cuse into almost no running game in the 2nd half.

It's no secret that Duke broke their record ending streak at the expense of NW one year ago. That became the statement of their season... the team Duke beat... especially in their OWN house.

NW last year outgained them by over 100 yards in the air and doubled them up in rushing. Untimely interceptions really cost them. I doubt this team puts up 500 yards of offense again and only comes away with two scores.

Sutton looked sharp as hell in game 1 and if it's wet it only helps NW more with a more established team in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

They have absolutely nothing to look ahead on this game for... a matchup with Southern Illinois next week at home? Then followed by another home game vs. Ohio. This is their 1st road game and will be their last till the end of the month... so I expect a full effort for this circled game.

Duke has no established running game and will have to try to throw the ball around.


Mainly though, like I first stated, I like the situation. Lose an embarassing game LY in what really was the beginning of a spiraling season. Now, a chance for revenge on the road with no obstacles looming over them.

Duke does have an experienced club... but if the weather is crappy I don't think they can bang in the trenches only making this play stronger.
 
Adding small play on B.G. TT Over 34.5. Lean them -6.5 and Over. So I feel this is the better play. Just for a half unit. Record/Plays updated.
 
Spek

Good luck man, on a few of these. That Iowa 1st Q is nice, I was looking over that game, and liked it alot, just didnt want to mess with Iowa for the FG.....
 
Absolutely hate seeing 70% on NW and line moving down a 1/2 point. Assume it has something to do with Doc Robert...

If the field is a mess, NW has a huge advantage with a mobile Q and Sutton should have a field day.
 
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