Week TWO Lookahead and Discussion

[RetroVK]

uconn by a td roughly.

 

[signalcaller]

CMU 70-14 in late October

Who was on that game. I know I was. And what a bad loss that was. Thought CMU might be able to hang with them for a while. Wow was i wrong

 

[broadwayjoe]

yup i estimated it at +6.5...anything over a td i will be very happy.

 

[M.W.]

Syr should be -4 to -6. Note: SU was -3.5 home v. Buffalo last year.

Notre Dame should be around -7 to -10. Note: Gold Sheet power ratings (always very close to LVSC's) had SDSU 3 points better than ND as of 11/15/07, and year-end Sagarin ratings (objective reality check) had SDSU about a point better. So a line of seven to 10 reflects a big adjustment.

TTU should be about -7 to -10. Again, Gold Sheet as of 11/15 had TTU rated 10 points better (my ratings differ, but that doesn't matter), and 5.5 points for home field brings the number to -4.5. We can expect an upward adjustment based on perception of Tech, but we've seen at least one Vegas book open this game at 7 as a "game of the year". I know -- it looks like a gift.

 

[M.W.]

UF v. Miami has got to be in the 20's. I'd look for 21 to 24.5, but could be as high as 28.5.

 

[M.W.]

Next week we get a total of just 26 FBS/FCS matchups compared to 32 this week. Most interesting line will be 5Dimes' number on SE Mo @ Mizzou. Sagarin ratings say Mizzou is 68 points better at home.

 

[M.W.]

Utah is a big revenge angle indeed.

I also have this on the Temple/UConn game:

- Conn has UVA next (16-17 LY)
- for Temple, big revenge angle after Temple was allegedly robbed LY with disallowed TD catch at the end
- also TU kicked out of Big East to make room for Conn
- TU btw Army and UB (7-42 LY)

 

[M.W.]

By the way, hello to Matador, Horses, and Garfather -- I really enjoyed that contest back in 2005.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff M.W.

Welcome to the site..

 

[J Galt]

TT should be no less than 24 point favs @ Nevada. They should rollll

If this is the case, Nevada will be my play of the week. Maybe year.

 

[Inspekdah]

24 might be high... but well over 2 td's... I see opening line of no less than 16.5... maybe I'm way off.

 

[J Galt]

I think it'll be 12.5-13. TT is allergic to defense and the Wolfpack offense is potent. I think they can cover 2 TDs, but it won't be easy. Give me more than 3 TDs and I will gladly take it.

 

[gjl02]

florida state what ever the spread is

 

[Matador]

MW --

I have to take issue with some of the numbers you're throwing out there. I don't think Sagarin numbers are much use this early in the year (or ever, but that's a different matter). Common sense tells you ND has to be 3 scores over SDSU and no way in hell UF is 4 TD's over a team that used to whip them so bad, they had to opt out of the series (I'm a Gator fan from way back, so I can say that). Gators haven't beat the 'Canes since before some of you were born. Gators are 5 TD's better than a shell of a UH team, and only one less over the 'Canes?

TTU I'm not so sure about, but their lines are always padded in OOC games and against weak conference foes. As touted as they are this year, don't expect any favors. TTU -14?

I also think 'Bama will be mid-twenties over TooLame.

 

[gjl02]

i wouldnt lay any money on the canes till some of there question marks are answered.. qb? wr?(production) just dont see them scoring much but they will be motivated.. cb is another question for miami

 

[horses]

The Aztecs losing to Cal Poly Saturday isn't going to help the cause either.

it only took you 5 posts to piss me off!

By the way, hello to Matador, Horses, and Garfather -- I really enjoyed that contest back in 2005.

Right back 'atcha MW; thank Matador for that contest.

Notre Dame should be around -7 to -10.

Well, if it is (and it won't be), I may just unload on Notre Dame and call it a season.

 

[M.W.]

Matador, my numbers are based on Vegas power ratings. ND was -6.5 at home in game 11 last year against Duke, which the oddsmakers had rated considerably (about 6 points) lower than SDSU.

Of course, we can see substantial adjustments in power ratings in the offseason; Vandy was dropped more than a TD, for instance. Notre Dame could get a similar -- or larger -- upward adjustment. Obviously, a lot of you think it's warranted. However, we need to be aware of the baseline we're starting from.

As for UF/Miami, at the end of last season, the power ratings would have made UF about a 23-point favorite over Miami in the Swamp. Florida is expected to be better this year; Miami is not.

 

[E.T.G.]

Just digging into WK2 now, this thread was hiding from me.

First game: SC @ Vandy

From a PR standpoint, before the season begins, I'd have the line around -13.5 or -14 and that could all change with a Vandy loss to MOH and a SC blowout but few quick notes here.

1) This is a big revenge game for SC
2) Double Digit Favorites in the SEC have not done well
3) UGA is on deck and is without a question, the 2nd BIGGEST game of the year for SC, only behind Clemsux.


Might be a game to avoid all together, too early to tell. Maybe a team total bet on Vandy under. Don't know just throwing some things out there now

 

[JML4481]

Mizzou should be at about -45 or so......SEMO blows!!!!!!!! 63-3 final...and that's being nice....Mizzou has another OOC game on deck and I'm sure Pinkel doesn't want to look like a schmuck in front of the state of Missouri.....I don't know the background on these two coaches as far as rivals,friends, or what, but I don't think the gas pedal gets let off of until it super ugly....SEMO got thumped at Missouri State last year... Please, please, please give me under 45 !!!!!

 

[~Utah]

BAR - judging by your latest actions I didnt know you were such a b ig OSU fan

 

[RetroVK]

The texas tech game was lined at -6 or 7 as i recall at one places game of the year sheets. Sure that it was posted in the game of the year thread. i think it goes off higher than that though.

Notre dame will be well over two td favorites and if not we should all be betting them. a line of -4 is basically calling the game a pickem on a neutral. no way. sdsu is what -5.5 or 6 right now home to cal poly which translates to roughly a pick game if they were playing at SLO. Notre dame only 4 points more ? no way. For quick easy reference right now i would check out RJ power rating threads , or hokies power rating threads. Way more accurate than sargarin.

 

[E.T.G.]

i dun think there is any way you use sargarin, at least right now. no way

 

[M.W.]

ETG, this is the best time of year to use the Sagarin ratings. They're based on a full year of data. However, my projected lines are based on the oddsmakers' power ratings.

 

[E.T.G.]

ETG, this is the best time of year to use the Sagarin ratings. They're based on a full year of data. However, my projected lines are based on the oddsmakers' power ratings.

So, you would agree with the following line according to Sagarin rankings:


UF (89.5) would be -.5 vs. VT (89.05) on neutral field?


That is just the start of it too

 

[M.W.]

No.

You didn't read what I wrote.

I referred to year-end Sagarin ratings. They say, based solely on last year's performances, Florida by 5 on a neutral field before factoring in the changes since last season.

They are an objective reality check, as I said above.

 

[giggity]

I was thinking the ND line would be along the lines of what Kyle though, just south of 3 td's. if the spread is anything under 14 then i will hit that one very very hard.

 

[E.T.G.]

No.

You didn't read what I wrote.

I referred to year-end Sagarin ratings. They say, based solely on last year's performances, Florida by 5 on a neutral field before factoring in the changes since last season.

They are an objective reality check, as I said above.

ur right, didn't read ur whole sentence, i blame the green stuff, my bad