Week One B1G Thread....

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Hello all, we have finally arrived at the time to post the initial Big Ten Discussion thread of the season!

These are new and exciting times in CFB and that certainly includes the B1G going through the biggest change that we've ever seen.

A new era is here, and I cannot wait to see what unfolds.

First and foremost, this conference is home to the 3-time defending conference champions and 2024 NATIONAL Champion Michigan Wolverines.

Along with usual top 10 teams in Penn State and Ohio State, the conference welcomes 4 nationally recognized schools from out West to form one heck of a conference!

This initial thread can be used for Week #1 lines plus any futures and player bets for the season from within the conference.

First, we need to discuss how things will shake out in this conference to determine a champion:

1. No divisions

2. Top 2 will advance to the title game

3. The schedules are uneven. Thank goodness for a playoff now!

The Big Ten Conference announced its Flex Protect XVIII model on October 4, 2023, which features a combination of protected opponents and rotating opponents for universities. Each member institution will continue to play nine intraconference games per season, and teams will play every other conference opponent at least twice – once home and once away – and will play rotating opponents no more than three times in a five-year period.​
​
4. FWIW, The Conference has not yet released the tiebreaker system! What the heck??

5. I'll get into the unbalanced schedules a bit more in the coming days. This is just how it is. Money wants to have certain teams featured against others. TV talks. Conversely, a few schools have some pull with the conference and will have a bit of a break in some of these years.

We'll start talking numbers shortly but here is one quick take from yours truly on each school...


Michigan -- damn good defense coming back with 4 first round draft picks on the field. QB determines whether this is a playoff team or not
Ohio State -- many guys came back and they spent a lot in free agency. Will the coach clam up again in a big game? Can Will Howard game manage?
Penn State -- Mr Peanut is brutal with game management and in big games. Can Allar make that next step and help the Franklin cause?
Wisconsin -- Will this year or next be the 'ascension' season for Fickell?
Minnesota -- RB is back and PJ gets the most out of his guys. Who will they upset this year? I feel it will be a pretty good one
Indiana --- This team seems like they will start to get lost in the shuffle again after a bit of momentum a few years ago
Purdue -- Schedule is tough but they have more talent. This will be a team to keep an eye on later in the year.
Northwestern -- The unexpected 2023 campaign will be tough to duplicate. NW faces Iowa, UM and OSU. Tough task, but the rebuild started strong!
Maryland --- Taulia has finally left the building. This feels like the max for Maryland football. I am not sure what else they can do. The talent in their backyard ends up elsewhere
Rutgers -- The opponent that many coaches dread. Well -coached team and ripe for an upset at anytime.
Michigan State - Tucker era ended, as it should have. New coach is solid but his lack of ties will ultimately hurt recruiting. This is a middling team for the foreseeable future.
Iowa -- You know the deal here, boring but they win games. This schedule sets up for a possible November chance at the playoff. Likely not, but a chance. NCAA worst nightmare.
Nebraska -- Finally heading in the right direction. I think they win a few this year as underdogs that they shouldn't. Good times coming in Lincoln.
Illinois -- Three really tough games but the rest are there to be competitive. Bert gets them into a bowl again.
USC -- Lincoln defense is what it is, shitty. Entering this conference will not help things. We've seen this team vs Utah a lot. Similar games coming. Rocky start, I can see 4-6 losses.
UCLA -- Rebuild here, no doubt. This won't be a pretty start. Bowl won't be in the equation imo.
Washington -- Just a huge question mark. New coach will be fine, but still a slight downgrade. They lost a lot. Their style will blend into conference better than the Cali schools
Oregon -- This is a team primed to enter this conference at the right time. Just the perfect year to enter. Championship team.


Some other things I am looking forward to on a personal level...

USC visiting the Big House. This is pretty cool and this new CFB model will allow us more classic matchups. This is good for the fans.

Texas also visiting the national champs in week #2. We have a top 4 team in what should be a war on the road. Good capping game for the rest of the season.

Oregon hosting OSU at Autzen on October 12th is as good as it gets. Two power schools, in a great venue and what could be a playoff preview as well!

Oregon November trips to Madison and Ann Arbor. Now, the weather in Oregon isn't pretty that time of the year either, but this is different than playing ASU on the road in November

USC and LSU open at The Death Star on Sunday of Labor Day Weekend, We'll have a good cap of USC after this game.

Saturday, November 2nd is just a GREAT day of conference action

"The Game"


B1G RSW's (over price is listed)

Minnesota 5.5 -115

Illinois 5.5 -150

Michigan State 4.5 -155

Wisconsin 6.5 -135

Iowa 8 -150

Maryland 6.5 -155

Penn State 9.5 -170

Purdue 4.5 -180

Indiana 5.5 -150

Nebraska 7.5 -140

Northwestern 4.5 -125

Ohio State 10.5 -155

Michigan -8.5 -150

Oregon 10.5 -115

UCLA 5.5 -210

Washington 6.5 -125

USC 7.5 -125


***Yes, these are all slanted to the over juice-wise. BetOnline has a plan this year, lol. Feel free to post your numbers as you see fit!


To Win Conference

Ohio State +135

Oregon +190

Penn State +500

Michigan +800

USC +1800

Iowa +2000

Nebraska +4000

Washington +6600

Wisconsin +6600

Maryland +10,000

UCLA +10,000

All others 20,000 to 30,000


Week One Lines:

Minnesota 2.5 and 50.5 vs North Carolina

Wisconsin 24.5 and 56 vs Western Michigan

Michigan State 12 and 46 vs Florida Atlantic

Indiana 20.5 and 50.5 vs Florida International

Maryland 20 and 48 vs Uconn

Penn State 10 and 51.5 @ West Virginia

Ohio State 50.5 and 58.5 vs Akron

Nebraska 27.5 and 48.5 vs UTEP

Northwestern 4 and 42.5 vs Miami Oh

UCLA 13 and 55.5 @ Hawaii

Michigan 21 and 47.5 vs Fresno

USC +6 and 63.5 vs LSU in Vegas



Couple of quick takes on these games...

Over has been played in Nebraska game A few good notes on CTG from @steponaduck and another guy I talk to plus a cap have me on this

Michigan likely plays two QB's in the opener

Hawaii is 'live' in my opinion

Once my guy @twinkie13 lets me know LSU defense has a pulse, that game could produce some wagers.

I'll be interested to see Chiles for MSU. He is their September Heisman.

Uconn -- well coached. That is a lot of points

Penn State might win that game handily.



I'll come back during game week to offer some predictions and whatnot. I am curious about how the tiebreakers will work. I do see 3 playoff teams for sure from this conference and a 4th would be no shock whatsoever. A few schedules set up as pretty auto in my opinion. Other schedules will allow a few losses and a berth anyway.

We'll also hopefully receive some knowledge on the smaller teams in week #1 from @s--k !!

Fun times ahead!
 
Great stuff. Gotta dig and let’s make sure no surprise sits at the DeathStar.
I don’t know much about USC, admittedly. Have to look more there hopefully LA guys chime in
 
twinkie13 said:
Great stuff. Gotta dig and let’s make sure no surprise sits at the DeathStar.
I don’t know much about USC, admittedly. Have to look more there hopefully LA guys chime in
Click to expand...

QB Moss should be really good. He has the talent and showed out very well in the bowl game.

He was named starter officially, today.

Back-up for 3 years. He has the experience.

Lincoln offense will cook.

The defense is always the question during this regime.
 
A lot of top end talent in the conference this year.


20240820_084931.jpg



Now, the top two from OSU come via the SEC in the transfer portal (Downs and Judkins).

That's showing the power of FA nowadays to swing things in the CFB landscape.
 
Nice thread!!
Concur that likely starting Wolverine QB not decided before game 1.
Buckeyes need to find their run game again to go with a great defense.
Let's see what new Iowa OC can do.
Are Terps moving to a power run game?
 
I won't do futures at this point, but Penn St has decent value at +500. OSU may have tons of talent but how many times have we seen them have their best players sit out after regular season for draft purposes?
 
“Iowa -- You know the deal here, boring but they win games”

Anyone have an idea what to expect from their offense this year? Illinois States sets up to be a pretty solid team this year, including their D. I always think of Iowa lately with a struggling Offense. Will that be changing much this year?
 
s--k said:
“Iowa -- You know the deal here, boring but they win games”

Anyone have an idea what to expect from their offense this year? Illinois States sets up to be a pretty solid team this year, including their D. I always think of Iowa lately with a struggling Offense. Will that be changing much this year?
Click to expand...
Been trying to follow them some.
One thing that stood out for me was a report the offensive line was holding it's own when last year at this time it was reported they were struggling.

Hawkeyes had a "kids day" back in 2nd wk I believe, and McNamara was terrible and so was his backup.

Ferentz and wide receivers coach suspended for game #1 for recruiting violations of McNamara.

So a mixed bag at this point. O-line was good news. McNamara's sloppy play was early in camp but it does have me questioning his commitment.

Did make a small play on Iowa Over 9 wins @ +200 on DK.

GL this season!
 
cubsker said:
McNamara went something like 7 of 21 for 83 yards in their open scrimmage
Click to expand...
Too much credit. McNamara was 7 of 21, 20 yards, and a pic-6.
Two wide receivers were out and so was #1 tightend yet McNamara had several passes batted down and missed open receivers, looked uncomfortable.
However he had a nice 10 yd scramble to show his knee injury from last yr has recovered.
QB Sullivan was 10 of 21 for 76 yds.
This scrimmage was on Aug 11th. Have not seen any QB reports since.
 
Good, thanks.

Crazy that the last two years their offense has only scored more than 27 points in one game each season ('23 41 vs WMich and '22 33 vs NWestern). 27 games, including post season and 25 of 27 they were held below 28 pts. So you see a line of 23.5 and it's like damnnnn

Illinois State only returned 4 starters on D last year and took a few bad games vs South Dakota St and Youngstown. They have 9 starters back on D this year and have a preseason 1st Tm AA LB, good personnel at each level. I am thinking they should be able to hold Iowa below 30 pts...Illinois State's D isn't any worse than a lower-mid Big Ten D that have been able to handle Iowa's O in the past. Figuring Illinois St can score somewhere between 6-13 depending on how their QB rotation works out and their performance. Red Birds are an interesting team this year with a decent ceiling. Remember Brock Spack (Purdue's old DC)? He's still their HC. They were in the national title game 2014, some people have whispers of that kind of year out of them. They're not SDSU good, but just 2 years ago Iowa only beat the Jacks 7-3!

Ill St's QB scrimmage stats for what it is worth (both these guys will play in the game). Looks like they limited/protected their 1st Tm MVFC WR and All American RB in both scrimmages. Rubley is the new guy, Rittenhouse has been the second QB last two years with a couple starts when Annexstad was out.
#1
Tommy Rittenhouse: 15-for-20, 124 yards, 1 TD
Jake Rubley: 11-for-16, 94 yards, 1 TD
#2
Jake Rubley: 9-for-10, 108 yards, 1 TD
Tommy Rittenhouse: 4-for-6, 68 yards
 
V.K. said:
Too much credit. McNamara was 7 of 21, 20 yards, and a pic-6.
Two wide receivers were out and so was #1 tightend yet McNamara had several passes batted down and missed open receivers, looked uncomfortable.
However he had a nice 10 yd scramble to show his knee injury from last yr has recovered.
QB Sullivan was 10 of 21 for 76 yds.
This scrimmage was on Aug 11th. Have not seen any QB reports since.
Click to expand...
Theres a rumor that Nathaniel Hackett was there and thoroughly impressed with McNamara. With numbers like that he was born to be the future QB for the Jets.
 
For what it's worth, my B10 thoughts for Thursday.

Howard at Rutgers -36.5; Howard replacing 4 yr qb starter, 3 on OL. Had a good 2023, went to a bowl. Should be a slight regression yr for Bison. Rutgers returning majority on O and D. Scarlet Knights 9-0 ATS non-conf games last three yrs under Schiano. Akron on deck for Knights, then a bye.
Gotta lean Rutgers here, but would prefer -35. Scarlet Knights or nothing for me.

North Carolina -2 at Minnesota; Tar Heels with new OC and DC. Minny with new DC. Heels downgraded on Oline, Minny Oline more experienced. See this as Gopher run game vs NC passing game. With Minny's Taylor most likely out can see why line has moved. Tough game to call. Looking at an inplay in this one. Want to see if NC passing game clicks early. If it does, may take the Over.

Eastern Illinios at Illinois -28; Eastern ILL returns bulk of 8-3 team from last year including a 6th year qb. Illini counter with Altmeyer at qb. Largest spread for Bielema at ILL. Kansas on deck for Illini. Small lean towards the +28 here.
 
I just did a quick run-through on Howard. Yeah, losing Williams at QB who was so good for them all these years has to be a tough adjustment. So I would not expect they do much on O, they have some decent skill guys, but everyone does really. QB and LOS is what matters most. Lose two 1st Tm OL MEAC guys and hoping some transfers can fill in. Lose their best DL and lose 3 of 4 starters off the DL. Hampton ran for 258 (7.6) on them as did Harvard going for 341 (7.3) and then the huge game of 438 (9.5) allowed to South Carolina State - and that was with their good DL guys. Didn't appear to strengthen the DL with transfers either.
 
I'll have my UM-Fresno thoughts after my draft tonight...

P-Unit says rain in Minny tonight FYI fot those that missed it.
 
My apologies for the lack of content in here this week...

We'll start to get these conference threads rolling here over the next few weeks...

Rutgers with the big 2h and tacking on a late score to make the final near what it should be... Some concerns though...

The offense was not very good early on.

The defense was having trouble on 3rd downs and also gave up a few too many yards for my liking,

I missed the entire game in Minny. We had a draft tonight, and instead had Colorado game on plus bases. I'll recap that after some studying...
 
Defending champion Michigan Wolverines open up at The Big House this Saturday night with a primetime affair.

Perfect late summer setting and the boys will receive their 'prizes' from last year's Big Ten, Rose Bowl, and National Championship wins. We should see a festive and charged-up crowd.

A new era dawns, but a lot will stay the same...

First and foremost, yes, this team lost a lot of stars to the NFL and graduation. With that being said, there is still a lot of talent left in Ann Arbor. This was a deep team last year and you'll see that pay off. They might not spend as much in free agency as other schools, but they spend wisely and look for fits to the program and culture.

As I noted in post #5, this team has legit star power coming back. We could see up to 4 first round picks next spring. Three of those are on defense. For those thinking that the defense will slip, I would re-evaluate just a bit. Granted, the off-season injury to one of my favorite players ever (Rod Moore) hurts, but there is plenty of depth to make up for this.

Mason Graham
Kenneth Grant
Will Johnson

That is three studs on defense that will be heading to the 1st round. Many have Will as the #1 rated player in CFB.

The linebackers are solid. Barham is a transfer from Maryland and everyone really loves him. VERY physical. Hausmann runs the defense at this point and also has improved. Steady player,

D Line depth is excellent and should keep guys fresh.

I believe Hill has taken the 2nd corner spot. He has all the talent, he needed the maturation. Zeke Berry, veteran Makari Paige and Quienten Johnson are all ready at the safety spots. Again, excellent depth back here with a few transfers and young guys.

Everything out of spring and fall camp has been very positive about this defense being suffocating.

To the offense... and this is where the season will be determined...

Despite the loss of Blake the Great, the RB room is in excellent condition. Don Edwards was a bit down last year but exploded in the game that mattered most. Many think he was trying too hard last year to make the big play, instead of the right play. His conditioning is better than ever and he's stepped up in the leadership department. Mullings is a guy I am BIG on. He just runs hard and I think could lead the team in rushing. Hall and Marshall are young guys who have bright futures.

TE is home of the 4th potential early pick, Colston Loveland. The new prototypical TE. I would expect he has exceptional numbers with a different set of QBs likely relying on a "Mr. Steady" type down the middle. There are a handful of guys behind him that can make an impact as well. A lot of talent at this spot.

WR is a position that lacks depth. Now, with Fred Moore/Tyler Morris/Semaj Morgan on the field, there is plenty of play-making talent. The depth though is rough and with no true big receiver, this is a concern. I would expect a lot of 2-TE sets.

The one thing I mentioned so much last year was that the OL never fully gelled. For a squad with "ten starters" I felt the right combo was not out there until a 1st round talent has a horrific injury in "The Game". This led to shuffling and the running game seemed to be more fluid after that. Now, this year's line has plenty of talent and is supposedly much 'nastier'. I like that notion for sure. We'll see how long this group takes to show the cohesiveness needed. There are a few battles at different spots ongoing this week heading into the opener.

I saved the most important position for last -- QB --

I'll start with this - we'll most likely see both QBs on Saturday. As of tonight, expect Davis Warren to start. He's had some moments in previous springs where everyone thought he would be a future BIG-10 QB. At other times, he has struggled. Injury occurred last year in Lincoln which led to him falling back a bit.

Orji at minimum will have packages. He simply has too many tools not to be on the field. The actual passing is the question mark. Ideally, he would improve enough in that aspect and have an impact like the Bama QB last year.

Shall see.

Jack Tuttle's injury during camp likely took him from 1st to 3rd.

Lastly, the coaching staff is different.

Sherrone is highly regarded and will bring a lot of the same philosophies to the table as JH did. I expect plenty of man-ball and then creative play-calling when needed. The toughness will stay in the program.

Wink was a hire that was not my favorite at first. I have grown on him through and think this defense will be a lot of fun. I am going off the players' reactions and statements here quite a bit.

Anyways, that is my quick midnight summary of this 2024 UM Football Team.

Tough schedule -- play possibly 3 of the top 4 teams in the country.

Home games vs Texas and Oregon are an absolute treat. Add in an old rival coming to A2 --USC and this is good for the sport.

QB play will determine 8/9 wins and DD's.

I think they absolutely can sneak into the playoffs. The right two losses, are a lock for a spot. Three doesn't eliminate them at all -- just depends on how other things shake out.
 
As far as the Fresno State game....

I haven't capped this one too hard as of yet.

We know Fresno also with a coaching change but is a veteran team that cannot be overlooked. The Michigan staff respects their OL and passing game quite a bit. Fresno averaged over 280 yards in the air last year.

The QB is smaller, UCF transfer Keene. I expect that to be the focus on the defensive gameplan Saturday -- collapse that pocket,,

As I said, UM will play 2 QB's. I expect very vanilla looking to get out with a win. Style points are not on the docket.

I wouldn't expect anything out of the base due to the Texas game on deck. Now, that changes with a close game in the 2h.

A lot of running and the clock churning is my guess.

There is some sort of under here -- that cap is coming in the next 42 hours.
 
What are you thoughts on Indiana? I really like Kurtis Rourke. Hes smart and can run (hopefully still can)....does Indiana have the supporting cast to help? Can't be worse than what he had at Ohio can it? Don't wanna lay 21 to open the season, but the total sitting at 51ish looks low.....
 
Today in Big18 thoughts;

On Penn St -7.5
On Mich/Fresno Under 48, made that play back on 8/22. See 45.5 now, would still play it.
Like Ohio St -48.5. Chip Kelly and big NIL says points and padded stats to me.

Indy should pound FIU but staying away. Same with Purdue, line now -35, easy foe but staying away.
Huskers are expected to roll -27.5, not so sure myself.
Iowa, only if defense scores and they can.
NW is my lean -3.
UCLA, just can't wrap my head around them being in BIG. Same with USC.
 
No plays in A2 as of yet.

Defense should play great.

Orji struggled the past 10+ days as the defense tossed different looks at him. We'll see how Davis perform and Alex performs in his packages. This should be interesting entering next week...

MSU was not good last night. Ouch.

Wisconsin left something to be desired as well.

Back in the late-show...
 
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