Week One B1G Thread...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Better late than never, right? This should be a very interesting few months in conference but at least we have something.

Before we get into the week one slate, lets talk some ground rules...

-No politics
-No Covid talk unless it is directly related to the capping of a game. We have general discussion for covid talk, theories and opinions.
-I get it, we all have our opinions on it but lets not derail this thread. This is to help us win money on whatever amount of games we can get in this season (that is as far as I will go with covid talk...as I do not see all the games being played).

What do we know so far?

No fans in the stands at all. From what I read a few hours ago, this will not change during the season whatsoever as to not give a team a competitive advantage. Families will be allowed in on a limited capacity.

The BIG is using a 21 day system for positive tests. So, we will see many players miss 2-3 games this year. Things will get interesting when it becomes a starting QB or another important player.

Championship Week will have crossovers for everyone.

What will we cap differently?

I will look at QB depth charts big-time

The no crowd effect will be huge.

December weather will also be very big.

OL continuity and offensive systems in place for a bit will be paramount in my opinion.

Okay, lets look at the Week One match-ups...


Nebraska @ Ohio State

Michigan @ Minnesota

Illinois @ Wisconsin

Penn State @ Indiana

Iowa @ Purdue

Maryland @ Northwestern

Rutgers @ Michigan State


A couple of quick thoughts here...

The joke has been that this is NU's punishment for everything...

Bateman is back and will test the unproven corners for Michigan right away.

Milton starts his first game for Michigan with plenty of skill players to help him out

Illinois looks for another win vs Wisky who just lost Coan the other day to injury.

Purdue should be fun this year as the young guys got a lot of experience out of necessity last year.

Maryland and Northwestern, eh...not to much to say here...

The Situation Trophy moves to the start of the season instead of the classic Thanksgiving weekend showdown. This is a big game to start the Mel Tucker era as it will be one of only a few games they possibly could be favored in....


Going locally....some notes...

Michigan State has an awful QB room and obviously a new system. The cupboard is bare and I cannot see more than 3 wins this year...and that is the ceiling no doubt in my mind (yes, play the RSW under 3.5 if available). Elijah is solid and will get a lot of carries is my guess. This program benefited from the shortened season as they would have got jail-sexed by both BYU and Miami in the non-conference.

Michigan lost Ambry at corner (understandable after hospital stay last summer) and Nico at WR (unless he has a big change of heart). Otherwise, the rest are back (which is a bit surprising although a few more could drop before the opener). DMC is transferring as he was beaten out for the job this summer by my guy Milton. Joe will do a lot of good things I think and will also some things that are not great but he has all the potential to be super. The guys really respond to him and no one on this team works harder. The o-line will need to gel quick. They will be very good, it just depends on when. The corners scare me quite a bit...

No times or lines are out as of yet. I believe OSU will get the Noon slot on Fox. If there is a Friday game I have heard a rumor of the Little Brown Jug game...shall see...

Okay, lets discuss projected lines and whatever else you would like.
 
Illinois and Wisconsin will be the Friday night game

Michigan Minny at nite on Sat.
 
Any thoughts on these lines now up at BOL? Home team listed first...

1804 Ohio State -21.5 115 vs Nebraska
1806 Michigan State -11.5 115 vs Rutgers
1808 Indiana +7 +100 vs Penn State
1809 Purdue +3 110 vs Iowa
1812 Minnesota -2 110 vs Michigan
1814 Northwestern -8 +115 vs Maryland
 
I have to admit that I have absolutely nothing on this board that looks appealing to me, so I will let you B1G experts talk it out in case I am missing an obvious one in here somewhere, but at first glance I just don't see it...
 
Bump

Jeff Brohm positive for Covid. I don't think B1G protocols allow for one to "test out" like the SEC does. What if Brohm's test was a false positive? Doesn't look like it matters, he will isolate for 10 days and miss this week's game. His brother OC will serve as HC.
 
1804 Ohio State -21.5 115 vs Nebraska
Click to expand...

Line recently bounced off of 27.5. People factoring recent history over any concern over week 1 uncertainty. 48-7 (-17), 36-31 (-18), 56-14 (-24.5), 62-3 (-17) are the last 4 in the series.
 
Wisconsin opened -23.5, current 19.5.

I have yet to get into these teams, obivously know about Coan.

Wisconsin lost last year as 30.5 road fav 23-24.

Line seems high with the assumption that Illinois isn't quite turning a corner, but I think they can see the corner now. ILL was 6-1 ATS as a dog last year.

2019 - 24-23 ILL +30.5
2018 - 49-20 UW -24
2017 - 24-10 UW -26.5
2016 - 48-3 UW -24.5
2015 - 24-13 UW -5
 
I laid 26 with Ohio State. I'm expecting a great offensive line, playmakers all over the place at WR and one of the country's top QBs piloting the offense. The RB position is maybe a little weak with Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon coming off a knee injury and last year's back-up Master Teague sharing the load.

Defensively, I don't think OSU will have the kind of DL that you've seen in recent years but they will still be good. A lot of experience back at LB and the defensive backs have Wade as a lockdown corner and plenty of talent behind him. I don't think the defense is overall on par with last year's bunch but not sure that they have to be great until the playoffs.

They normally put it on the Huskers and I don't know why they wouldn't here. Only a few thousand will be in the 'Shoe. OSU's team has had zero Covid issues reported.

I'd be surprised if they don't hang half a hundred on the Huskers which means they can give up a few touchdowns and still get enough margin.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
Again, wow.

We're allowing 25% capacity in Austin but I'm guessing you'll see about 10% on Saturday. 15%, maybe.
Click to expand...
Yeah, big ten isn't gonna budge. It's a season long thing.

21 day absence any player with Rona

I believe 10 days for coaches (so should be no Brohm this week)

Anyways, I plan on talking more about this week later tonight!
 
I do like Shaun Wade, but I think we are all assuming he's going to be an elite CB we've seen at OSU. He has been primarily their 3rd DB his time there correct?
 
Somebody confirm or deny this perception.

Michigan was been chipping at the bit to play football while Minnesota came out early in agreement of not playing. I think Fleck even said his players supported not playing.

If so, can that translate on the field somehow? Was Michigan doing some kind of practice even when it appeared football was going to the spring and did Minnesota send all their kids home while Michigan was practicing in September for games that might never come?
 
s--k said:
Somebody confirm or deny this perception.

Michigan was been chipping at the bit to play football while Minnesota came out early in agreement of not playing. I think Fleck even said his players supported not playing.

If so, can that translate on the field somehow? Was Michigan doing some kind of practice even when it appeared football was going to the spring and did Minnesota send all their kids home while Michigan was practicing in September for games that might never come?
Click to expand...
Michigan been going since June
 
s--k said:
I do like Shaun Wade, but I think we are all assuming he's going to be an elite CB we've seen at OSU. He has been primarily their 3rd DB his time there correct?
Click to expand...
He was slot corner last year behind Okudah and Arnette. I think he's going to be elite, most had him going 1st round in 2021.
 
Martinez getting the start. I think his leash is pretty short based off of frosts comments and some comments from other players.
 
We are starting a redshirt freshman at RT. Last year's starter, who got absolutely destroyed by chase young moves to RG. The expectation is that OL should be a strength. Definitely need to grind out a few drives and keep the clock moving with Mills. The other somewhat surprising news is that it appears another redshirt freshman, Ronald Thompkins, is 2nd team RB. Kid had two ACL tears, but his tape was really good. Played on a high school team in Georgia with a ton of D1 talent and his coach said he was their best player when healthy. Was being recruited by everyone before the second ACL - bama, Jorja, usc, Florida, etc. Was viewed as a lottery ticket when he signed and it looks like we might have hit here.
 
Okay,

Some quick thoughts here late-night as I finally at my desk with the lap open ready to type..

LOTS OF line movement since these opened up last week. Some seems appropriate and some seems bewildering perhaps...

My first thought...How many teams have covid issues and we do not know yet? Minnesota apparently does but we do not know how many or the players? Is this correct? Is this one reason the line is moving so much?

So, how will this Brohm situation be handled? Is he out an auto-10 days for the positive test or are we allowing the possibility of a false-positive (a la Saban).

Do we have a good list of guys that opted out or have injury issues?

I can think of Parsons and now Journey Brown at PSU. At Michigan, two of their best are gone (Nico and Ambry). Who am I missing here from the rest of the teams? Obviously Rondale and Bateman coming back was huge.

Martinez gets the nod for the Huskers.

Is Rocky Lombardi really going to start for Michigan State?

Okay....few Michigan thoughts...

What I like about this team...

-This is the best group of kids they have had overall, attitude-wise, since maybe 2016. The bad apples are gone. The young guys were turned off by certain upperclassmen last year. That won't be the case this year.
-My guy Joe gets the nod at QB. He has the tools to be unreal, or he could be quite average. There aren't many that work harder though and gets the respect this guy does from his teammates. He's the reason they cooled on DTR late summer of a few years ago and let him go elsewhere when both visited the same weekend.
-Despite Nico sitting this one out, I love the receivers overall. They fit the Gattis offense very well.
-Lots of depth at RB... Corum will be a very good one. I think he is the main guy by next year.
-The OL is new, but has plenty of talent. We will see how long it takes them to gel...but as he has shown the last few years...Warriner coaches up as well as anyone. The lines simply improve as the year goes by leaps and bounds.
-The linebackers should be really good
-Daxton Hill
-Aiden Hutch
-The d-line should be better than last year. We'll see...

What I do not like...

-Obvious growing pains for a new QB and OL are very possible early.
-Secondary overall. Ambry will be missed. I think they give up big plays
-Don Brown is a very good coach but sometimes way too stubborn. If he has multiple poor games this year, it is time to move on.

That is about it...toughest schedule in conference(then Nebraska) so no real expectations...6-2 I think is successful...means they win 2 of 3 vs Minny, PSU and Wisky. Indiana will be very dangerous as well.

I think 5-3 happens but the offense will be a lot of fun to watch. Hopefully #5 provides some excitement.
 
I really do not know how to cap the HFA, if any in this conference. We have seen that even at 25%, there is some advantage in other conferences and even the NFL. The BIG is going to simply have families (sure some big donors will get in) and not much piped in noise. I believe most are going with no bands too... it will be surreal, no doubt.

Obviously, kicking off in late October, we'll need to check the weather for all of these games.

I am interesting in if we want to break down the QB spot at each school since a 21 day absence is very possible...
 
While I sadly no longer have my connection with the Wisconsin coaching staff, this is what I was able to get regarding the Badger QB situation (pre-fall camp, so no idea what's happened since the Coan injury other than the depth chart).

- Coan was a roughly 1.5 year starter, loved in the locker room (which was NOT the case for Hornibrook, who Coan replaced). Seemed to show slow and steady improvement since taking over late in the 2018 season. He certainly exceeded my expectations for him, although that was an admittedly low bar when he first came in. Staff had a lot of faith in him. Obviously he broke his foot in camp and is out indefinitely.

- Mertz struggled quite a bit in fall camp '19, although his natural talent was evident I'm told. However the adjustment from shotgun spread (his HS offense) to under center was a more difficult adjustment than many in the program expected. Highest-ranked recruit in school history, but apparently when the fans/media were clamoring for him to start before last season, the closest competition in camp for Coan in '19 was from Chase Wolfe, not Mertz. Apparently Wolfe is more of an athletic guy with running skills rather than an pure passer like Mertz, Wolf would've gotten the call had Coan suffered an injury before last year like he did this year.

- About halfway through the 2019 season, everything started to click for Mertz in practice and the coaches were very impressed with him. He passed Wolfe on the depth chart and put himself in position to be the starter now. Wolfe is still there as the backup. There is confidence in Wolfe's abilities, and he could open up aspects of the offense like option stuff that they won't regularly run with Metrz, but he would be a downgrade in the passing game.
 
Also, is Pennix completely healthy and ready to go for Indiana?

I saw that Peyton Ramsey was named the starter for Indiana.
 
EFC1878 said:
Also, is Pennix completely healthy and ready to go for Indiana?

I saw that Peyton Ramsey was named the starter for Indiana.
Click to expand...
Obviously you meant Peyton Ramsey starting for Northwestern.
Big question for Northwestern is the OL. Their best OL opted out (Rashawn Slater - will be 1st round pick), and another projected starter medically retired.
They are starting a true frosh at LT, though he is one of their most heralded recruits in recent history.
Defense should be solid this year even though they lost 2 starters to opt-out (Wilder at Safety, and Miller at DE).
 
Here’s where each position group stands, including the returning players who started at least half of Maryland’s games last season:

Quarterbacks​

Returning starters: none
Maryland has two scholarship quarterbacks in Tagovailoa, the brother of Heisman Trophy finalist Tua, and LeGendre. Tagovailoa was Alabama’s third-choice quarterback last season, and LeGendre was the Terps’ third option as a freshman while he preserved his redshirt year. Tagovailoa completed 9 of 12 passes during his freshman season. LeGendre completed 1 of 3 attempts and rushed for 104 yards.

Wide receivers​

Returning starters: Dontay Demus Jr., Darryl Jones
Maryland’s wide receiver group is its deepest offensive unit with established returners in Demus, junior Darryl Jones (eight starts with 158 yards in 2019) and junior Brian Cobbs (three starts, 243 yards). Jeshaun Jones — who had receiving, rushing and passing touchdowns on the first three touches of his college career — is back from a knee injury, and the group adds Jarrett, the top recruit in Locksley’s 2020 class. All five could be starters.

Running backs​

Returning starters: none

Seniors Jake Funk and Tayon Fleet-Davis have experience in the program but have spent their careers behind other talented backs on the depth chart. Funk tore his ACL in each of the past two seasons and returns for a fifth year. Maryland added two freshmen, Isaiah Jacobs and Peny Boone, who could play early.

Tight ends​

Returning starters: none
Maryland lost its top two tight ends — graduate transfer Tyler Mabry and Chigoziem Okonkwo, who’s out this season for medical reasons. Redshirt freshman Malik Jackson appeared in one game last season and hasn’t recorded a catch, but he’s probably the starter. Defensive lineman Tyler Baylor and linebacker Kameron Blount moved to tight end because of the depth issues.

Offensive line​

Returning starters: Jaelyn Duncan, Johnny Jordan, Marcus Minor

The line lacked depth last year and lost a few veterans this offseason. Austin Fontaine, a starter in 2019, opted out, but the group returns Duncan at left tackle, Jordan at center and Minor, who started at right tackle last season but will move to the interior in 2020. Sophomore Spencer Anderson earned considerable playing time as a backup last year, and junior college transfers Johari Branch and Amelio Moran could provide immediate help.
 
As far as capping Michigan and Minnesota...

Preparedness favors Michigan, obviously as they stayed working out with the 20 hour a week rule. They wanted to play while Minnesota seemed to be the opposite.

As far as the line, tough to lay 3.5 when you had +2.5 available last week. I understand the books moved it 1 to 1.5 points after the Covid news... so that is a factor.

Night game with new QB and new OL gets negated with no crowd quite a bit.

Bateman etc vs UM secondary is the big concern on my end.
 
B.A.R. said:
As far as capping Michigan and Minnesota...

Preparedness favors Michigan, obviously as they stayed working out with the 20 hour a week rule. They wanted to play while Minnesota seemed to be the opposite.

As far as the line, tough to lay 3.5 when you had +2.5 available last week. I understand the books moved it 1 to 1.5 points after the Covid news... so that is a factor.

Night game with new QB and new OL gets negated with no crowd quite a bit.

Bateman etc vs UM secondary is the big concern on my end.
Click to expand...

Think I'm locking in Michigan ML.
 
From CFN

College Football News Preview 2020: Maryland Terrapins Defense 3 Things To Know​

– The defense finished dead last in the Big Ten in total and scoring D, but it was really, really young. Three of the top four tacklers are gone, but nine of the top 13 tacklers were underclassmen. However, some of them have bolted.

34-tackle safety Deon Jones left for Boston College, and he’s not alone when it comes to defensive backs leaving. Leading tackler and the team’s top star, Antoine Brooks, is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, and in all, seven defensive backs are transferring out.

On the plus side, many of the top young talents are back, and the recruiting class is supposed to play a role right away. It would help in a big way if it gets help from better play from the defensive front.

– The line struggled. It couldn’t get behind the line and was blasted over and over again. No returning Terp defensive lineman came up with more than one sack, and 6-1, 285-pound senior Sam Okuayinonu is the only returning linemen who generated more than four tackles for loss – he came up with 4.5. An end – like 6-4, 268-pound junior Lawtez Rogers – has to quickly turn into a producer.

– In this defense, the linebackers have to be the stars. Junior Ayinde Eley is the team’s leading returning tackler coming up with 79, and junior Chance Campbell is a reliable hitter in the middle. Despite the overall lack of experience, there’s decent depth with enough options to play around with for the four spots.

Best Maryland Terrapins Defensive Player​

LB Ayinde Eley, Jr.
There were a whole lot of problems last year, and there are a whole bunch of concerns this season, but the linebacking corps should be okay. The 6-3, 226-pound former great recruit earned All-Big Ten honors with 79 tackles with four tackles for loss and an interception. He missed the last game of the season, but before that he was one of the team’s few steady performers working on the weakside.

2. S Nick Cross, Soph.
3. LB Chance Campbell, Jr.
4. DT Sam Okuayinonu, Sr.
5. CB Deonte Banks, Soph.
 
Last edited:
Leaning Maryland and IU I’ll def be on catching 7 and ML


IU QB healthy, RB back healthy, Two solid AF WRs, massive line. PSU lost WR Hamler (OLSM baller) from last year, kid was a stud and bailed them out a lot, only deep threat and cleared out space for TE who’s a stud. Parsons obviously gone and now RB1 Brown. Believe PSU has depth at RB and LB to cover some of that up but biggest issue, as BAR references earlier in thread, new coaches. Read PSU has four, including new OC with new system. 2 new starting WRs and new WR coach.

IU is live if they just stop shooting themselves in foot.
Look ahead to OSU for PSU as well. Potentially Minny PSU Deja Vu game from last year.

Sparty game I want no part of, won’t even add MSU to my pick whatever ML parlay.

I want to believe in Milton but I’ve got to see to ya know. Minny also breaking in new OC and loss of WR Johnson is bigger than people think despite Bateman’s return. To me the key will be how U-M contains the GG run game. I think M wins, but line lost its value to me. For s&g, I’ll go M by 5.


Bet Corn at your own health, maybe OSU gives them a 2nd half pass for being in front of having games this year. After all, it will get OSU to playoff. I probably hit 30% of games where I take massive fave so I’ll pass.

Tim, talk me off Terps- I know this year is different but annually seem to play their best ball first 2-3 games of year, albeit non-conference. Cross at safety one of my favorite players in conference, kid will be a pro soon.


cheers to us B1G is back, though this all kind of stinks. Let’s try to enjoy it and hope our respective teams get at least 5-6 games in. Yikes!
 
Fwiw...

And I can understand not wanting to have money tied up right now...

And, I doubt that any team in the B1G plays all their games...

But...

I was able to get a little bit down on MSU under 3.5 when it was re-released after new schedule came out. I played some more on U3 as well...

No way this team goes .500 if they play all of their schedule. They are not good, as we have discussed.

PSU and OSU are auto-losses. UM is almost for sure an auto-loss.

Rutgers is really the only 'gimmie' and I am not so sure of that (if you made me bet, I would take the points).

I see them as a 2-6 team...maybe get that 3rd game but I doubt it.

You might feel uncomfortable with it after this weekend but I think it is solid play even at 3 -115.

Welcome to the Mel Tucker era.
 
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