Week One B16 Thread...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello friends,

Welcome back to your favorite thread each and every week during the season. Well, there are some better ones but this one can be pretty good as well. I really want to get this thread back to how it was 2,3 and 4 years ago. There was a lot of content, some smack talk and most importantly winning plays. Per the norm, @SHOGUN and myself will alternate starting this thread each week with an occasional cameo from @cubsker or @PaintCrew when we start slacking. So, with that being said I wanted to get this going some 17-21 days out from the games.

For the initial thread this season I would like to...

-Talk about match-ups
-Camp updates
-Team previews if possible
-Links to pertinent articles/tweets
-Injury/Suspension updates

I think we can get a healthy amount of content into the thread and be ready to rock for Week One!

Week One will be spread out from Saturday, August 27th through Saturday, September 3rd...(all lines are as of midnight eastern, 8-10-2022).

August 27th

Nebraska -12.5 and 50.5 vs Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland)
Illinois -10 and 54 vs Wyoming

September 1st

Penn State -3.5 and 54.5 @ Purdue
Minnesota -37 and 55.5 vs New Mexico State

September 2nd

Michigan State -19 and 54.5 vs Western Michigan
Indiana -5 and 47.5 vs Illinois

September 3rd

Maryland -2.5 and 63.5 vs Buffalo
Michigan -27.5 and 58.5 vs Colorado State
Rutgers +7 and 49 @ Boston College
Ohio State -15.5 and 58 vs Notre Dame
Wisconsin NL vs Illinois State



Overall, only two really 'must see' games, and both will be primetime affairs (Purdue and Ohio State hosting). Obviously a game in Dublin is intriguing as well...

Personally, I am still in the midst of my conference capping. I'll have more to add to the 'other' games as we go through the next two weeks or so. Tonight, I'll concentrate on the defending B1G champions...

Michigan

The big losses: Hutch, Ojabo and Daxton Hill from the defense as well as the DC and OC
Additions: Jesse Minter at DC and and co-OC's and Olusegun Oluwatimi at C

Let us start with the offense. Gattis was the Broyles Award Winner last year. I feel good for the guy in that respect as he got trashed a lot here, but this was a total team effort overall. He did well last year, but he won't be missed all too much. In fact, I think over time this offense will be in much better hands. The other positive here is he won't be banging recruits' moms. That is huge.

The KEY position to any team is QB and UM is set up very nice here with McNamara and McCarthy (plus spring surprise Davis Warren). JJ had a shoulder injury from his scampers in the Orange Bowl. They opted out of surgery and let things heal. He's been back to 100% for about a month now but missed some crucial reps in spring. Cade is what he is, a heckuva game manager. He doesn't turn the ball over and mostly makes the correct reads. He is a gamer, and a guy you love to have. Now, he cannot do all the things JJ can. McCarthy is a star in the making. He can make so many different throws, is excellent in the run game and wants to be the man. Ultimately, JH wants the guy who will limit turnovers and lead the team to TD's. You will see these guys both play a lot in September as the schedule is weaker than previous years. Ultimately, they could platoon all year but in a perfect world JJ wins this job by October. Hopefully, it doesn't take a loss at Iowa to make a change.

I'll tell you what, if I am QB, I definitely want to play with the surrounding offense. This is an extremely talented squad with good depth, no doubt...

Last year's offensive line rated out as the best in the country. They had provided a powerful running game and protected the QB position very well. They lost two starters but have plenty of capable guys ready to go. The biggest addition though is Virginia transfer, Olu. Already in camp, some insiders believe he is better than Ruiz (Former C and 1st round pick). This group should pick up where last year's unit left off. Depth here is excellent.

The RB's lose a big piece with Haskins in Nashville. With that being said, Corum is back and ready to be that lead guy. Even better, sophomore Edwards is back and ready to shoulder more of the load. Donovan should have a huge year all-around. He showed his pass-catching abilities in November and is a star in the making. The big thing here will be short yardage situations. They are looking at a few guys right now, and we'll see how that shakes out in September. Remember the name CJ Stokes as well. You should see him a bit in early blowouts.

I was a bit surprised that Erick All returned but not upset whatsoever. He is an All-American candidate. Schoonmaker is back. Louis Hansen enters his 2nd year and should do some things. Frosh Loveland is thought of very highly as well.

There is a plethora of receivers both returning and coming in. The big one is Ronnie Bell is back. This kid has fought through so much and will be a captain this year. Mr. reliable, I expect he'll have some big moments. Bell is an easy guy to root for. Johnson and Wilson return as well, both solid receivers than had big moments last year. Sophomore Andrel Anthony had the breakout game in East Lansing last year and could be ready to be the guy this year. The incoming guys are what really gets me excited. Clemons should be special, and Walker has potential as well. As you can see, depth will not be an issue here at all.

As you can see, there are plenty of talented players and depth on this side of the ball. This should be a fairly high-scoring team. So far in camp they have talked about adding new things to the offense and passing more than they did last year. Of course, all of this comes down to the QB situation. Both are team guys, but we know how these types of battles can go. You simply need to keep team chemistry...


Now, on to the defense...

Starting last year, I think many were nervous about the defense. There was talent there, but my biggest concern was the secondary. While being in attendance at the opener I watched WMU pass right down the field in the 1st quarter and was legit scared. Then, the pass rush started. The secondary guys started making plays and the unit as a whole simply got better and better each game. McDonald was a young hot-shot DC and was proving to be a brilliant hire. Now, there were some breakdowns at times but overall, they had a solid year.

Now, they need to be better. That is a big chore when you lose 3 1st round picks (Ojabo was top 15 till the injury). There is talent though and a new coordinator (albeit from the same system -Ravens). We shall see. Jim isn't one to overhype his team, but he has said twice now this summer that he can see this defense being BETTER than last year. Interesting. Back to Jesse Minter. He is calling this 'year two' in the scheme so hopefully the transition is pretty smooth.

Looking at the line, the inside should be better than last year. Mazi Smith is a giant human being and will be there likely with Jenkins. On the edge, Mike Morris has been waiting for this moment. I'd expect a lot of combinations during camp and even into the September schedule (Harrell, Upshaw and some youngsters will be part of this). Mazi will be the leader of this unit though.

Linebackers seem to be a consensus concern, but I think they will be fine. Colson will be heading to the NFL after next season. He is a budding star, the best since Devin Bush in many people's opinion. Hill-Green also should start. Both these guys got good amounts of playing time last year and should build off that. The other spot will be battled out in camp.

Three guys have departed the starting backfield. I am a fan of the safeties who got their feet wet last year (Moten and Moore). DJ Turner is an all-conference type at corner and likely will start the season opposite Gemon Green. Will Johnson is the local boy, 5-star frosh from the Detroit area and a legacy recruit. How soon is he ready? We shall see. He will be a starter by next year at the minimum. The intrigue back here is Mike Sainstril. He is a converted WR that made the move due to depth on both sides and really showed out in the spring at the nickel position. He will have bits of time on offense, but seemingly has found a home in the backfield.

Overall, I am interested in seeing how this group gels. The September schedule definitely helps A LOT. I keep going back to the JH comments... hopefully he is spot on here. If he is, then they are in play for another championship...

Special Teams will be very good again. Moody and Robbins are both back for the Wolverines. As far as returners, that situation is very fluid. I'd expect AJ Henning back somewhere. I didn't mention him with the WR's, but he's the slot guy that if he can get his act together route-running is a heckuva weapon. We saw great action from him on reverses last season as well on the return game.

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No final prediction on the season as of now.

10-2 should be the floor in my opinion but you just never know...

Iowa is looking like a noon game, so that is a bonus if true.

TV apparently wants MSU at night. The AA police etc want no part of that so we shall see who wins out there.

Ideally the Penn State game is the night game(other than Hawaii). That is already a maize-out and would be a fun atmosphere.

Now, betting...

As of now, I will be looking at TT's early on in some capacity. The proper matchups in conference will demand a look at overs as well depending on how the defense shapes up.

Should be fun!

Back over the week with some more conference talk. I'm looking for team stuff from @cubsker @PaintCrew @Marsski @VirginiaCavs @P-Unit and anyone else I missed.
 
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My quick notes for big ten East…

OSU- Offense is stacked obviously. Defense is an unknown as they transition to a complex 4-2-5. Knowles new DC, expect the defense to be more aggressive and tougher (very soft last year). Conference comes down to the big game

Michigan - bar already went pretty in depth, don’t have much to add. Most talented offense in harbaugh’s tenure. This OOC schedule is downright pathetic

Penn state- I think the offense will be pretty good, Clifford is back with an OL that will be improved. Studs in the rb room, they will miss Dotson though. Defense was damn good last year, don’t like the Diaz hire and expecting regression

Msu- losing KW3 is massive, he deserved to be a heisman candidate IMO. Also lose Naylor at WR, the offense won’t be nearly as explosive this year. Huge question marks at OL and secondary again. Regression is obvious but market is well adjusted to this

Maryland- offense is loaded, defense will be poor

Rutgers- i think the defense can be okay. Offense has question marks everywhere, they’ll be bad or very bad. Really tough schedule, outside of Indiana I don’t see a b10 win

Indiana - I took their rsw under 4.5. Expecting them to be pretty poor in the trenches and not high on Bazelik
 
I keep going back to the JH comments... hopefully he is spot on here. If he is, then they are in play for another championship...
good stuff, what were harbaughs comments ?

personally i think michigan - while being better offensively has signs of regression because of their d losses and last years team may not have been as good as perception.

The question I'm looking for preseason is who makes the huge leap like a michigan did last year ?.......to me the wildcard team is nebraska. If we give nebraska the offensive line michigan had last year, what's their record ? They are an offensive line away from being a borderline playoff team like michigan turned into out of nowhere. Think they overhauled the offensive coaching staff very nicely, big upgrade at qb. I think Riaola at oline coach is a stud. former 2019 lsu wide receiver coach on board. Maybe they suck again which very well can happen but what other team has the ingredients for this possibility in the big ten ? Wisconsin is going more spread but I'm not buying anything drastic.

looking at season win totals
ohio state 10.5 - over
nebraska 7.5 -Over, ceiling 10-11 wins.......if this were to happen the heisman odds on casey thompson (which seem nonexistent) are very undervalued compared to players on teams who will never be any good)
illinois - O 4.5 - bring in utsa's spread attack. could start out 4-0
indiana -4 under. only seeing 1 for sure win here and that is idaho.
sparty - 7.5 - lean under, i think they are capable of losing to anyone in big ten on a given day
penn state 8.5 - lean under, swapping manny diaz for prye i think is a negative and their offense has been trending down for years
maryland 6 - i'd lean over
purdue - 7.5 - lean under here

I think rutgers has potential to improve alot on defense but tough to see enough wins
 
Can't believe we are this close.....thanks for getting this going. I'll get some Purdue camp tidbits in here that no one outside of WL will care about at some point this weekend. Got some guys that have been to a few practices that feed me notes
 
Here's what I'm hearing. I hope to get a good update from a starter's dad that I play poker with, but that won't happen until a week from Monday and that's only if he shows (prob 75% chance he does).

QB - Thompson the starter, Purdy playing well as #2.

RB - we should be a lot better here. Sounds like the main guy from last year, Johnson, is going to be the 3rd down guy and play outside at WR some. Juco Grant and last year's game one starter, Irvin, are sounding like the top two. Yant probably involved as well as the power guy.

WR - Manning, Trey Palmer (LSU), Washington (Texas), Garcia-Castaneda (NMSU), Brown - should be improved, much better coaching with Mickey.
OL - still the biggest concern, especially pass blocking outside. Lost our center (2nd rd pick), another starter suspended for the year, another starter didn't practice all spring, another starter didn't practice all spring and has been hurt again of late. Guys that have not consistently played well are going to be in there.

TE - Vokolek takes over for a really productive player who was all conf. Injuries galore behind him. Absolutely need Vok to stay healthy. Fidone hasn't practiced after a second ACL injury, but is trying to get back. Otherwise, we're talking walk ons, scrubs, and freshmen.

Back later with the strength of the team, the defense.
 
On to the D. The plan is to play much more with even fronts. We were moving that way last year and I think it will be our base look. Mathis, the transfer from TCU and Nelson are the studs at DE. Nelson was unblockable in the spring game and I've heard that's still been the case in fall camp. Tanner as a third guy is an OK option and they like a couple of the young guys behind him in Butler and Gunnerson.

Two very solid starters return at the LB spots in Reimer and Henrich. Can they take the next step from good to great? That's really the story of the entire D.

Nickel back is probably the biggest drop off from last year. Domann was a great player. Him not being drafted tells me that NFL front offices are retards. He's in the Colts camp and I'll be surprised if he isn't on someone's roster this year. That guy can cover, can blitz, and can make plays in the box. Replacing him isn't going to be easy. Sounds like 3 guys are in the mix there. Gifford (brother was a good player for us and he's been hanging around with the Cowboys since), Kolarevic (main backup LB last year, not been a fan of his coverage skills, but he's slimmed down), and Wright (daddy was a starter at safety on the mid 90s teams. Hasnt played at all yet, had lots of injuries and i think a non football related health thing). Total wait and see at this spot.

CB - Newsome returns. Solid player, another can he take it up a notch guy. Cam Taylor was great for us last year, hopefully Newsome gets to that level. Sounds like AZ St xfer Tommi Hill is the likely starter at the other spot. He was a true frosh there last year. NFL talent, still a little raw. Long time backup Clark is probably the next guy. He's generally played well when healthy. Never hear much about Ohio St xfer Johnson...guess he just doesn't have it.

Safety - Both starters gone, guys who had played a ton of football. Sounds like Buford has one spot, he's smaller (orig a CB) but is the alpha dog. Not sure who takes the other spot, possibly Brown (xfer from UNI who also was a CB there), maybe Poa-Gates (also small), or more likely, Farmer (bigger, but doesn't like to tackle). I worry about these guys against the run.

K - Transfer from Furman. Couldn't possibly be worse than what we had last year.

P - Transfer from Montana. Didn't really impress me in the spring game, but he was all American FCS last year and the reports are good.
 
Good stuff Cub, appreciate it.

I'm still deciding on my one UM home game to go to, but the NEB tilt might be it. I just wish it was earlier in the year (weather).
 
Good stuff Cub, appreciate it.

I'm still deciding on my one UM home game to go to, but the NEB tilt might be it. I just wish it was earlier in the year (weather).

Could be a really big game. Could be meaningless. Just really hard to tell with this bunch.
 

Knowles systems as noted in this thread is complex and it took Oklahoma State years to really master it. They were so good last year because those guys were in the system for years. Ok State D actually got worse his first year in 2018 despite 7 starters back that year. Ohio State is a better starting talent pool, but mental capacity of an average college football player OSU - OSU is probably about the same. I don't doubt the hire is a good one and will provide positive results, but there is potential I'd think for a learning curve to not provide immediate turnaround when tested vs quality competition.
 
So New Mexico st plays week 0 on Saturday 8/27 then plays minny on Thursday 9/1? Damn, at 1st I was thinking might be a advantage to playing a game before gophers but seems like a quick turn around to start the year!!
 
Because of what is mentioned above about Knowles complex D and the overall potency of the Buckeyes offense, I am already on the Over 58 BIG in the opener at the Shoe. Only bet I've made so far. Expecting something in the 45-24 range...
 
Because of what is mentioned above about Knowles complex D and the overall potency of the Buckeyes offense, I am already on the Over 58 BIG in the opener at the Shoe. Only bet I've made so far. Expecting something in the 45-24 range...
I laid -14 for a decent amount. I don’t think ND has enough in the passing game to really expose the defense. I’m not sure anyone does on the schedule outside of Maryland and Michigan which are conveniently the last two games
 
I laid -14 for a decent amount. I don’t think ND has enough in the passing game to really expose the defense. I’m not sure anyone does on the schedule outside of Maryland and Michigan which are conveniently the last two games

Did Terps bring back pretty much Everyone on the offensive side? Is that one wr who got hurt in iowa game back? Really hurt them when he went down.
 
I laid -14 for a decent amount. I don’t think ND has enough in the passing game to really expose the defense. I’m not sure anyone does on the schedule outside of Maryland and Michigan which are conveniently the last
I don’t know about ND offense, but OSU D was mid last year and proven corner depth after Denzel Burke and Cam is sketchy. I think there’s many paths to the over here. I don’t mind -14 but worry about the back door.
 
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Because of what is mentioned above about Knowles complex D and the overall potency of the Buckeyes offense, I am already on the Over 58 BIG in the opener at the Shoe. Only bet I've made so far. Expecting something in the 45-24 range...
Great bet.

I have the 13.5 and will be on total and TT big as well.
 
I don’t know about ND offense, but OSU D was mid last year and proven corner depth after Denzel Burke and Cam is sketchy. I think there’s many paths to the over here. I don’t mind -14 but worry about the back door.
Big question marks at qb and wr for ND. They will need to bully the run game, which is possible, to have any shot of being competitive IMO. But I just do not see them being able to keep up if osu gets up early. Not saying I disagree with the over, feel pretty good about osu being able to score
 
Big question marks at qb and wr for ND. They will need to bully the run game, which is possible, to have any shot of being competitive IMO. But I just do not see them being able to keep up if osu gets up early. Not saying I disagree with the over, feel pretty good about osu being able to score

Feel like a couple teams bullied the shit out of osu especially early last year, minny and the ducks killed them with the zone reads.
 
Oh, that's a misleading headline, no doubt.

Sucks for the kid but yea, don’t make much difference for the team. Their coach don’t exactly like running the ball anyways, long as Henderson stays healthy could probably make the case it better he doesn’t get touches taken away cause he a td waiting to happen from anywhere on the field.
 
First thank you @B.A.R. for getting this all going again.....here's the official worthless notes from yours truly on my boys

Purdue notes:

2021 RECAP:
Last season RSW O/U 4.5/5
My homer projection: 6-6 with a top end of 8-4 if everything went right and 4-8 if the entire roster got injured like in 2020

Final record: 8-4

In hindsight I think it's the record they deserved. Clearly the better team in 7 of those games but somehow gave one away to Minny that I still can't figure out.

Fairly even with the fighting @cubsker 's but stole a win mainly because of Adrian Martinez. Not one Purdue played well enough to win that's for sure in Lincoln.

Clearly outmatched against OSU obviously but not often you get run off the field with a QB going for 400 yds with 4TDs and no picks but that's what happens when you give up nearly 10 yds a carry

Only other game with O'Connell as the full game starter that was an L was against Wisky. I've come to understand Purdue just might never beat Wisky again.

Outlier loss and the most painful that I'd love to see run back with O'Connell as QB is at ND but better team got it done (albeit the wrong team covered)

Bowl game W against Tennessee where I placed one of the largest wagers I allow myself to make against Purdue early knowing big George and David Bell wouldn't play. Watched the line plummet as more injuries occurred on the purdue side and they also lost 1 or 2 to academics. Decided not to hedge. And then watched them pull off one of the more absurd W's of my lifetime

In the end obviously for Purdue a hell of a year that surpassed all expectations. Biggest change was Brad Lambert's scheme on the defensive side of the ball dialing up blitzes from everywhere and making offenses beat them (which they still did plenty) to give the defense at least a fighting chance vs years past. Emergence of AOC taking full control of the QB position took the offense to levels not seen since Brees and a lot of the past 2 to 3 years of recruiting better talent started to show on the field vs the disaster years of Hazell and MAC level talent at best.

2022 preseason notes:
RSW O/U 7.5 (Juiced to the under)

My homer projection: TBD

Impact Losses:

Obviously the big 2 Karlaftis and Bell are gone leaving big holes on both sides of the ball.

Also impactful is the steady big ol' fullback Horvath. I disagree with just how much of a loss he'll be vs a couple of my old timers passing notes with the talent behind him so we shall see.

One major preseason injury to TE Garrett Miller who is/will be NFL quality. Puts a big dent in TE depth and the option to run a lot of 2 TE sets with 2 quality receiving TEs that Brohm likes to do. Payne Durham will have to stay healthy as there isn't a lot behind him now with Miller out. I'd expect even more 4 WR sets than even normal for Brohm.

Other than that....a couple defectors and an injury here and there the departures are minimal and you should see a team with vastly more B1G quality depth across all position groups outside of the WR position

Other impact changes:
The star last year outside of AOC was Brad Lambert bringing an energy and aggression to this defense unlike anything seen since the Brock Spack years in the late 90's/early 20's. Well....Lambert went back home to Wake Forest. This is a concern for sure but silver lining at least is Lambert was co DC coordinator with Ron English last year and English is just going to assume all duties this year and take over play calling. From all the notes i've read there will be no scheme changes on defense but obviously unknowns to play out when English is up there in the box calling plays on D vs Lambert.

The other general notes on "changes" and what I think is some reasons for upside (or at least sustained level of 2021) is the amount of season long injuries during the season last year that now are healthy to go along with all the returnees of last year. Two examples are starters of the LB crew which probably was the weekest position group in 2021 but now you piece together all starters back from last year plus a 6th and 7th (yes 7th) year players who would've been starters last year....all of a sudden you've got top end talent and quality depth at a position that's been a sore spot for years. Other examples include significant injuries during the season to 2 starting CBs and at one starting OL who all return now as projected starters this year to go with the younger guys who closed the year as starters last year.

Transfer portal....biggest additions is replenishing a good amount of departed WR talent with some Iowa defectors.

Charlie Jones (B1G special teams POY last year) is going to get major snaps on the outside opposite of Broc Thompson. He impressed in spring and continued that through camp thus far. Pretty confident Jones is going to enjoy the amount of targets he'll get all year if he stays healthy in this offense from AOC. Also should add at least a threat to punt returns like Purdue hasn't had under brohm. Doubt he gets many KR's to avoid injury risk with the amount Brohm expects to use him on offense.

Tyrone Tracy (WR also from Iowa) - Pretty lightly used at Iowa but he's going to find a niche in this offense I think in the slot and also get a few carries here in there with the ball as well.

RB transfer from CMU (Kobe Lewis) who should help be a change of pace/home run attempting type of small back to go with the 2 more established guys in front of him.

OL transfer (can't find my notes from where) but has added much needed quality depth to go along with most of line coming back.

Position Groups:

QB:


6th year Aidan O'Connell....key note really is that he didn't assume full reins as QB1 until the 4th game of the season. For fun here's his numbers for the last 5 games of the season including the bowl game:

161-222 (72.5%) 2131yds 19 TD 3 INT

I think it's relevant as AOC as the established starter clearly took this offense to a different level vs the 1st half of the season and no reason for it not to continue into 2022. AOC knows this offense better than the brohms at this point and has been here ever since they have. Hell the guy even got married this offseason....grown ass man playing college football.


Screen Shot 2022-08-16 at 9.32.11 AM.png

There's future quality depth behind him but if you are investing in anything to the positive season wise with Purdue let's just say you need AOC healthy....


RB:

Horvath gone as mentioned but I quietly like this group if they stay healthy. Nothing earth shattering but better physical talent 3 deep than Purdue has had in my recent memory with Doerue leading the way. Downing (returning) and Lewis (CMU) transfer should both get plenty of snaps.

I don't have a lot of notes beyond that and with any injuries Tracy (WR) will likely get more snaps in the backfield to help out.

WR:

Probably the only position group you'd have to say has take a step back with Bell gone and Milton Wright out (academics). Some injury concerns have kept out some of the expected starters through spring and summer (Thompson, star of the Tenny bowl game and Rice) but it's opened the door for lots of reps for the transfers mentioned up above and a couple redshirt freshman and sophmores.

In the end I think this group will be "good enough"....not elite but this is the same group + 2 starters that put up arcade like numbers in the bowl game. More than serviceable with the QB slinging it.

TE:

Starts and almost ends with Payne Durham. If you want a key to the season outside of AOC....this guy needs to stay healthy. He's elite but there's very very little behind him with Garret Miller out for the year. If he stays healthy though this offense will hum all year as he'll draw more than enough attention to help out the WR group position up above.

OL:

Put this in the reasons for optimism. Little by little and year after year the OL has improved under the brohms. It's taken quite some time but I'd say that the OL coach would definitely call this their best and deepest group since the Brohms took over in 2017 (not saying much obviously) but it's one that I think can be relied on to stand up to just about any front 7 they'll see in the regular season (at least pass protection) and do all they need to do which is buy enough time for AOC.

Most of the crew is back from last year (G Greg Long departs) but regardless there is experience and depth, an experienced transfer that has shined, to go with 2 standout RS freshman whom Dale Williams is raving about.

Williams has more than hinted he's happy with the improved push he's seen in the running game out of this group as well which is nice to hear but I'd still expect the running game to be just enough of a threat to take a small bit of heat off pass protection and AOC.

DL:

No big george....it's huge obviously. However I think this group is still a position of strength due to the amount of depth. First time I've heard a Purdue D'Line coach talking about this level of depth basically 3 deep across the board. Obviously will be a drop off on the edge rushers losing #3 but I think still more than enough talent to be a capable front to go with the pressure that will come from either the LBs or safeties. Plenty of bulk and size at nose and DT with everyone back and some quality depth added. Maybe overall you have to bring the top end talent down a bit from 2021 but where I think you have to see improvement throughout a full season of wear in tear is avoiding those games you typically see with Purdue where they just flat out get ran over and worn down. Built for the full season and brutal games against the likes of Wisky I think a bit better than years past but we'll see.

LB:

Mentioned most of it up above but this group (while still not an upper B1G quality group) is so dramatically more talented and deeper than the recent norm (which was absolute garbage). Lots of experience gained last year by young guys who shouldn't have been playing who now are experienced and ready for this level to go with 2 former starters (the grandpas on the team at ages 23 and 24) leading the way. Lots of experience now in this scheme with everyone having a full year under there belt so I expect this crew to be capable and most importantly enough depth to wishstand an injury or 2 (probably not much more than that) without creating a big drop in quality.

CB:

A group that made a ton of progress last year and I think reasons for optimism for continued improvements. A couple key starters were out a portion of the year (it was a trend) and opened the door for some youth to shine. Add them all together with no one departing you've got a pretty capable and quality group with lots of physicality and length to matchup just find with most of what they'll face. They'll be put on an island plenty of times as well as the aggressiveness of the play calling is expected to continue so this really is probably the key group to the defense. They'll get beat i'm sure plenty of times but as a whole this defense is about creating just enough plays to flip the field here and there and force the offense to beat them over the top trusting the offense to get theres.

The tea leaves i've got from typically pessimistic insiders and old timers are fairly positive and biggest take away is that this full roster just continues to look more like a B1G roster should compared to even just a couple years ago. It's been a long (still in progress) rebuild but I think pretty clear things are trending in the right direction from an overall talent/depth perspective (maybe most obvious and most important on both lines).

There are obvious weak spots compared to other upper end rosters (WRs) and depth concerns (TE) but they are probably areas that can withstand some challenges given the QB and O'line.

The schedule is gettable IMO and I might be overstating it but that first game against Penn St is going to tell you a lot about this season. I'm holding a large +4.5 Purdue ticket that I still feel fine about but I will say I've been every growing more optimistic about the 'Nits as well so I might look to snap off a chunk of that at PSU -2.5 if it gets down there. If it goes the other direction I'll let it ride as I really think it's more of a toss up game.

On the RSW....honestly see the above....if you like the O7.5 (i'm not touching it) and I do think there is reasons to like it but no way I'm taking an over on a team at 7.5 that was just at 4.5 a year ago. Too much risk at the QB and TE positions where the season could unravel.

If you like the season over I think I'd rather not tie up $ for the full season and just either take the points against PSU or ML straight up and be done with it. Decent chance the RSW is decided in game 1.

If you are pessimistic I could see a bailout plan even with a Purdue W in game 1 if things unravel with key injuries so maybe if you lean that way the full season under could make sense.

Schedule and my home prediction:

vs PSU W (but i have it truly as a coin flip....i'm giving AOC the nod under the home lights here to pull it out and hoping to see the O take advantage a bit of a new D scheme out of PSU)
vs Indy St W
@ Cuse W
@ FAU W
@ Minny L (even if my gut and heart say W.....Purdue just does Purdue like stupid shit against this group)
@ Mary L (again though a coin flip)
vs Neb W (again though a coin flip and ya never know what you'll get from @cubsker's crew)
@ Wisky L (it's always an L until proven otherwise)
vs Iowa W (Brohm owns Ferentz to include now even some of his players)
@ Illinois W
vs NW W
@ Indy W (Not sure they break 3 W's.....their coach is going to be proven to be wildly over his head)

So the optimistic take with a couple coin flips in there going Purdue's way (i'm sure others will have Iowa as a coin flip too) i've got them at 9-3 but that 4 game stretch in the middle of the season with 3 quality opponents on the road will decide anything and everything. I think there's upside to contending in the west if Wisky somehow slips up a couple times but not loving the numbers i've seen enough to play it.

There is downside easily down to 6-6 just with coin flips going the other way but excited to see how it plays out regardless. If AOC stays healthy his full season numbers will be pretty silly to look at....
 
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So much good stuff in here, always enjoy reading the stuff from you guys who pay way more attention to these teams and their offseason moves!
 
Big question marks at qb and wr for ND. They will need to bully the run game, which is possible, to have any shot of being competitive IMO. But I just do not see them being able to keep up if osu gets up early. Not saying I disagree with the over, feel pretty good about osu being able to score

Sounds to me like the kid who gonna play qb for Irish be about perfect to exploit what osu biggest issue was last year.
 
Sounds to me like the kid who gonna play qb for Irish be about perfect to exploit what osu biggest issue was last year.
Buckner showed more as a runner than passer. Like I mentioned previously I expect buckeyes defense to be more physical and tougher against the run this year. It will take time to adjust to the new scheme but I’m thinking that would be exploited more so in passing game. Could be wrong, just how I’ve capped em
 
Buckner showed more as a runner than passer. Like I mentioned previously I expect buckeyes defense to be more physical and tougher against the run this year. It will take time to adjust to the new scheme but I’m thinking that would be exploited more so in passing game. Could be wrong, just how I’ve capped em

I dunno man, maybe but the good rushing teams, especially w zone read freaking gashed them and I’m not sure the 4-2-5 as suited to stop strong rushing attacks.
 
I don’t know about ND offense, but OSU D was mid last year and proven corner depth after Denzel Burke and Cam is sketchy. I think there’s many paths to the over here. I don’t mind -14 but worry about the back door.
Freeman was VERY mouthy in the offseason. I don't see Day calling off the dogs in this one. Particularly with the need for the starting defense to acclimate themselves to the new system with real reps.
 
What he say?
When he took the ND job he made comments about 'not making the wrong decision twice' in reference to him choosing OSU over ND as a player.

Then over the summer he took shots at OSU's academic standards for football players.

Kinda weird. Would think he would've been better off rolling into OSU this year a bit more unassuming but hey I'm just a guy on a message board!
 
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Most likely Cade is the starter, game one, for Michigan.

Reports are he has elevated his game. He obviously is less prone to forcing things (turnovers).

Both will play those first three games though, no doubt about it.

We'll see how things shake out.
 
Talked with dad of a defensive starter tonight. Son was named one of 4 captains over the weekend....pretty cool.

They feel great about DL. Mathis is no joke. Probably going to play a lot of 4-2-5. Good competition at the nickel spot between Gifford and Kolarevic taking over for JoJo.

Thompson an upgrade over Martinez. RBs are improved. OL still the major question - just no one there that you can feel great about.
 
Talked with dad of a defensive starter tonight. Son was named one of 4 captains over the weekend....pretty cool.

They feel great about DL. Mathis is no joke. Probably going to play a lot of 4-2-5. Good competition at the nickel spot between Gifford and Kolarevic taking over for JoJo.

Thompson an upgrade over Martinez. RBs are improved. OL still the major question - just no one there that you can feel great about.
Was awful. Onside kick just inexplicably bad.

I like Thompson. The coach just sucks.
 
Was awful. Onside kick just inexplicably bad.

I like Thompson. The coach just sucks.

He's bad, but our vaunted defense was just terrible. No excuse for that performance. Couldn't cover, couldn't tackle, couldnt pressure the qb, couldn't stop the pass in the 1H or the run in the 2h.

And again, the offense went to sleep when it counted.
 
He's bad, but our vaunted defense was just terrible. No excuse for that performance. Couldn't cover, couldn't tackle, couldnt pressure the qb, couldn't stop the pass in the 1H or the run in the 2h.

And again, the offense went to sleep when it counted.
I just don’t wanna see it die. Football is better when Corn is good, I come from the Tommy days.
 
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