8-4 + 7.20 units.
I cannot complain with th first week as I was able to get a nice start to the season. Last nights game still stings though. Thats football for you. It's going to happen. Dave Wannstedt certainly should be on the hotseat now. Felt very good up 14-0 in that game but turnovers were killer to say the least. Feel solid about my capping though. Leaned to Colly, Kentucky and Fresno as well but never pulled the trigger. Just didn't have enough time to get to those games in full.
From a local perspective. Utah is a very good team and obviously the final score isn't indicative of how well they played. They are faster than I thought and have an excellent defense. I like how Michigan adapted in 2nd half and how they wouldn't quit. Going to be a fall of ups and downs but thats alright. Sparty just had too many mistakes out in Berkely. Thought Ringer would play better. Dell was excellent though and they needed to find that go-to receiver. More on Western and Central Michigan later in the thread.
Texas Tech -9.5 -110 5 units
Some observations from the Red Raiders game against Eastern Washington. I think the final score is quite deceiving. You gotta look inside these boxscores at little things. You'll gain an edge this way each and every game you cap. The yardage difference was 536-341. Thats actually a bit low for Texas Tech especially in a OOC game. Yo ualso expect TT to score a bit more against foes such as. They missed two FG's in 4th qtr and also got stopped at the EWU 3yard line in the 3rd quarter. The biggest thing though is they had 18 penalties for 169 yards. That sort of stuff tends to happen when your not totally focused on an inferior opponent. I expect that to change this week. On trhe other side of the ball EWU stats are skewed no doubt. They had just 22 yards rushing and only 40 yards total in the first half. They had two long drives in the third quarter that encompassed 10 minutes in gametime. Those both went for TD's but one was aided by a Texas Tech muffed punt. Basically throw out the third quarter for the Red Raiders. They never had the ball all too much. Ewu also went for it a few times obviously in 4th as the game was out of reach. They lost the T.O.P. game and hence didn't have as many scoring opportunities.
Nevada posted a 49-13 win over Grambling State. Interesting that Nevada ran 53 times for 426 yards but still lost the T.O.P. by 2 minutes. Grambling was stuffed against the run but that doesn't bother me too much. Texas Tech is going to pass, pass and pass some more. GSU was decen through the air completing 13 of 27 for 205 yards(8.3 pp). This was only a 21-0 game at halftime. Seems to me(without watching this "battle") that Grambling wore out a bit in the second half.
I really like this Texas Tech team this year. I think their defense, although not good, is better than in recent campaigns. Harrell to Crabtree and company is a fun thing to watch. Getting this under 10 was great to me. I expected higher to be honest. I know some of the early birdies even got a better number. I know its road and its chalk but the bottom line is I think they can run this team off the field. Don't usually have to worry about backdoors with Leach at the helm. I see them rolling and absolutely love this play. Looking for say a 55-24 final.
Northwestern -6.5 -110 3 units
This is what situational cappers would call a wet dream. Another line I am suprised at but will happily take. Guys like Spek and VK have covered this game quite well. Northwestern is dangerous this year and should have no problem here. If they cannot get motivated for this one they shouldn't be out on the field. Always like road games in non-hostile enviroments as well.
Wyoming -3 -110 3 units
Back to the well baby! I really do think that this line got overdramatized after last week. I was hesitant at first, I won't lie but the bottom line is styles here conflict and we get the better end of it. One thing Wyoming did very well last week was the run defense. We are tallking under two ypc. Less than 40 yards rushing is phenomenol. Ohio was able to go with the passing game but thats something the Flyboys don't have in their arsenal. They lost their leader in Carney and a lot on defense. The trenches imo are a mismatch and we should see Wyoming dominate this game. I was close to playing more but feel more comfortable at this size play..lol.
CMU/Georgia O56-110 2 units
Think we'll see a lot of scoring in this game. Looking back at the Georgia-Goergia Southern tilt their was plenty of offense in the 45-21 final. Georgia actually gave up 300 yards to their instate opponent. Another thing I liked from that game was their was 25 total possessions. Thats the ball changing hands over 6 times a quarter. Offense can do some work that way and get some scores. Central Michigan beat Eastern Illinois 31-12 in the first week. The opposing QB was able to pass for over 200 yards on 19-28. We've seen CMU go into Clemson last year and get hammered 70-0. Well, they will prolly lose pretty soundly again but not as bad and they should be able to put up some points for themselves as well. A final of 45-21 sounds about right.
WMU/NIU O54 -110 2 units
Northern Illinois almost got a win over the Big 10 up at the Dome on Saturday. They gave up a score with 22 seconds left. They had another shot but couldn't get it in the endzone as time expired. Their was 800 yards combined offense in this game(600 passing). NIU had a very nice per pass average(11.2) on 17-29 for 326 yards. Yes its Minny's defense but impressive enough. I was really looking into Western Michigan week one at Nebraska. I didn't pull the trigger as their was a few concers for me and luckily I didn't as the Huskers spoked them 47-24. Hiller was excellent as advertised as he passed for 342 yards. They couldn't run at all though amassing just 8 yards on the ground. Another game where their was a nice amount of drives with 29. I'll take that all day. Gotta like passing teams for overs. I think we'll get to this one pretty easily. Both teams around 30 is my projection covering this easily.
Good luck to everyone this week. I have a few others I will dive into but thats it for now.
I cannot complain with th first week as I was able to get a nice start to the season. Last nights game still stings though. Thats football for you. It's going to happen. Dave Wannstedt certainly should be on the hotseat now. Felt very good up 14-0 in that game but turnovers were killer to say the least. Feel solid about my capping though. Leaned to Colly, Kentucky and Fresno as well but never pulled the trigger. Just didn't have enough time to get to those games in full.
From a local perspective. Utah is a very good team and obviously the final score isn't indicative of how well they played. They are faster than I thought and have an excellent defense. I like how Michigan adapted in 2nd half and how they wouldn't quit. Going to be a fall of ups and downs but thats alright. Sparty just had too many mistakes out in Berkely. Thought Ringer would play better. Dell was excellent though and they needed to find that go-to receiver. More on Western and Central Michigan later in the thread.
Texas Tech -9.5 -110 5 units
Some observations from the Red Raiders game against Eastern Washington. I think the final score is quite deceiving. You gotta look inside these boxscores at little things. You'll gain an edge this way each and every game you cap. The yardage difference was 536-341. Thats actually a bit low for Texas Tech especially in a OOC game. Yo ualso expect TT to score a bit more against foes such as. They missed two FG's in 4th qtr and also got stopped at the EWU 3yard line in the 3rd quarter. The biggest thing though is they had 18 penalties for 169 yards. That sort of stuff tends to happen when your not totally focused on an inferior opponent. I expect that to change this week. On trhe other side of the ball EWU stats are skewed no doubt. They had just 22 yards rushing and only 40 yards total in the first half. They had two long drives in the third quarter that encompassed 10 minutes in gametime. Those both went for TD's but one was aided by a Texas Tech muffed punt. Basically throw out the third quarter for the Red Raiders. They never had the ball all too much. Ewu also went for it a few times obviously in 4th as the game was out of reach. They lost the T.O.P. game and hence didn't have as many scoring opportunities.
Nevada posted a 49-13 win over Grambling State. Interesting that Nevada ran 53 times for 426 yards but still lost the T.O.P. by 2 minutes. Grambling was stuffed against the run but that doesn't bother me too much. Texas Tech is going to pass, pass and pass some more. GSU was decen through the air completing 13 of 27 for 205 yards(8.3 pp). This was only a 21-0 game at halftime. Seems to me(without watching this "battle") that Grambling wore out a bit in the second half.
I really like this Texas Tech team this year. I think their defense, although not good, is better than in recent campaigns. Harrell to Crabtree and company is a fun thing to watch. Getting this under 10 was great to me. I expected higher to be honest. I know some of the early birdies even got a better number. I know its road and its chalk but the bottom line is I think they can run this team off the field. Don't usually have to worry about backdoors with Leach at the helm. I see them rolling and absolutely love this play. Looking for say a 55-24 final.
Northwestern -6.5 -110 3 units
This is what situational cappers would call a wet dream. Another line I am suprised at but will happily take. Guys like Spek and VK have covered this game quite well. Northwestern is dangerous this year and should have no problem here. If they cannot get motivated for this one they shouldn't be out on the field. Always like road games in non-hostile enviroments as well.
Wyoming -3 -110 3 units
Back to the well baby! I really do think that this line got overdramatized after last week. I was hesitant at first, I won't lie but the bottom line is styles here conflict and we get the better end of it. One thing Wyoming did very well last week was the run defense. We are tallking under two ypc. Less than 40 yards rushing is phenomenol. Ohio was able to go with the passing game but thats something the Flyboys don't have in their arsenal. They lost their leader in Carney and a lot on defense. The trenches imo are a mismatch and we should see Wyoming dominate this game. I was close to playing more but feel more comfortable at this size play..lol.
CMU/Georgia O56-110 2 units
Think we'll see a lot of scoring in this game. Looking back at the Georgia-Goergia Southern tilt their was plenty of offense in the 45-21 final. Georgia actually gave up 300 yards to their instate opponent. Another thing I liked from that game was their was 25 total possessions. Thats the ball changing hands over 6 times a quarter. Offense can do some work that way and get some scores. Central Michigan beat Eastern Illinois 31-12 in the first week. The opposing QB was able to pass for over 200 yards on 19-28. We've seen CMU go into Clemson last year and get hammered 70-0. Well, they will prolly lose pretty soundly again but not as bad and they should be able to put up some points for themselves as well. A final of 45-21 sounds about right.
WMU/NIU O54 -110 2 units
Northern Illinois almost got a win over the Big 10 up at the Dome on Saturday. They gave up a score with 22 seconds left. They had another shot but couldn't get it in the endzone as time expired. Their was 800 yards combined offense in this game(600 passing). NIU had a very nice per pass average(11.2) on 17-29 for 326 yards. Yes its Minny's defense but impressive enough. I was really looking into Western Michigan week one at Nebraska. I didn't pull the trigger as their was a few concers for me and luckily I didn't as the Huskers spoked them 47-24. Hiller was excellent as advertised as he passed for 342 yards. They couldn't run at all though amassing just 8 yards on the ground. Another game where their was a nice amount of drives with 29. I'll take that all day. Gotta like passing teams for overs. I think we'll get to this one pretty easily. Both teams around 30 is my projection covering this easily.
Good luck to everyone this week. I have a few others I will dive into but thats it for now.
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illow:
