Week of Saturday, September 5th Plays and Analysis Thread...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Staff member
Here we are, today is a Holiday in my book as we kick off a new season. Very excited as always and look forward to a great season. Last year was tremendous, at 59% win clip on posted plays and around the same on a handful of non-posted ones late in the year.

Obviously a very exciting time for the home school down in A2. Regardless of how this year goes whether it is 8 or 9 wins the team will get better and be coached up. It has been years in that regard. It took getting rid of Mr. Pizza to get the Jimmy Ball rolling but thank god it happened. You never wish an injury upon anyone but the Shane Morris concussion and ensuing controversy is what really got the ball rolling. That is then and this is now...so onward we go...

I'll have many more Michigan thoughts later today. I just want to get the thread going as I will at least one play on opening night and up to three...

I have had one crazy, busy(not in a 'fun' way either) summer so I will be easing myself into this season. Generally the first 3-4 weeks are the easiest to win money so I will be hunkering down the best I can. I'll play situational plays and TT's for the most part. Each year for the last several I have tried to simplify my approach and it has worked out well for the most part.

Great work by everyone that has posted this summer...be some outstanding stuff and some great new members posting stuff..NEVER be afraid to post or discuss...


Okay, back in 8 hours or so and lets get this season off to a rousing start!
 
Some Michigan Thoughts in General

Well, a new era begins and it should be both interesting and exciting. It will be fun. Michigan is that school that everyone likes to hate and having Jimmy in the fold should just intensify that.

A few things I truly believe will be better than last years team...

-Conditioning
-Improving as the season goes on
-Toughness
-Clock management
-Having 11 players on the field at all times(remember only 10 for the return in Utah game last year)
-Turnover margin
-Halftime adjustments


Those are just a few things but stuff that will help big-time.

The defense was solid last year...rankings were good...too many times though the offense left them out to dry and they would wilt come late-3rd into the 4th quarter. It is a natural tendency.

Special team have been horrid for many years. That will be a huge difference. Now, the placekicking game is a worry but we'll see what happens. As far as coverage and returns it will be upgraded immensely.

The unknown is the offense. The OL has matured finally and is developing a nasty streak apparently. That is huge. That will be the cornerstone of making other things work. Ruddock, if he plays well and continues to start will just need to manage games. The running game has talent, lets see them show it though. Someone needs to bust out from that group. Butt will be prolly the best offensive player. The WR's lack that big playmaker and that is the biggest problem. If one of the youngins can bust out that would be huge. Drake had a great camp supposedly so if he can remain injury free that is a huge bonus.

This year, the defense will be much more aggressive and that will help the turnover battle. Special teams have been shored up for the most part. They say the best players are out there no matter who it is. The offense just needs to manage games and not put the defense in bad situations.

With that being said, Michigan hasn't had a coaching staff like this since I was a kid. It is not just Harbaugh, but the others he has assembled that is more crucial than anything.

The season can go any which way, my safe pick is 8-4. If they somehow win tonight I can see 9-3, perhaps. Time to win a few road games and get rid of the 2+ decade curse of winning out West.
 
Utah tt discussion...

I have had this play in my head for quite awhile now.

No reason to go back to last year but Utah didn't really do much. They had like 82 yards on ground and not many more through the air. Now, I know that before the good RB come to the forefront and the QB play should be better this year...

I am counting on a very good, aggressive Michigan defense tonight. Hey, I expect the same from Utah. I would think this is an under game in general but I have grown to simplify things in life, especially college football. I also expect UM to try and make this a low possession game. That would be their best chance on the road in a hostile stadium. Run the clock and try and play keepaway and win field position battle.


Concerns?

-Shane gets in game for some reason and zips one 8 feet over receivers head for an INT
-Utah has great special teams
-OT is always a concern on tt unders with a spread under 10 but you take that chance.

I love the number though. At the bigger books it has been at 25.5 all day. I was able to snag that extra point which isn't huge but you never know. It was never getting to 27 so I fired away. Anything 24.5 and above I was comfortable with.


Definitely no homer play here. My disconnect with betting this program the last few years has been big other than some lucky TT's against last year(MSU and OSU come to mind). I do feel I will have a better feel for them than in many years. We shall see.


I see a 23-21, 24-20, 21-17 kinda game...and it could go either way but I do think Utah pulls it out.


GL to all.
 
BAR bol my brother have a great year lets make that mint gov mint to the bank baby:money::badass:
 
A lean to WKU tt over but laying off...for now...

Enjoy the first night everyone:cheers3:
 
Well, I'll grade that play out as a B- or so.

I, for one, am encouraged about this game 'somewhat'.

The big thing here is they didn't quit or wilt. They came out of halftime and kept playing. Right there is an obvious improvement. I need to watch full game still which imma try and do here in a little while if I can sneak it in. Utah is a very good team and that was not going to be an easy task. Obviously those early overthrows were killer. That could have changed his confidence, the tempo of the game...everything... but in the end the score was around where I thought it could be so I will take it.

Lucky on missed FG's but didn't see a guy with 5 total picks last year throwing 3 either. I was never expecting him to be a game-changer but at that same point has he ever had that porous of a running game?

Either way, week to week improvement and we'll take the 1-0 start to the gambling year.

And OT, glad I stuck with one play. That WKU tt lean was brutal, lol.
 
Always nice to win an under, especially a low totaled one when you allow the defensive score to boot. Nice work.

I watched this game in very small bits and pieces (traveling so caught some at the airport while enjoying Queso Fundido at a nice little spot inJohn Wayne airport. I recommend it as my favorite airport place.

Anyway, I thought they played rather well. They actually outgained Utah in that game. The strange thing is ... the one thing I was pretty sure that Harbaugh would fix was the bad turnover ratio from last year but that reared its ugly head again (minus two including pick six) and might have really been the deciding factor in the game ... certainly the spread. Utah is a good team so I would take an outgaining performance at night, in their house, on opening week as a great sign for their team moving forward.

oh 337 yards given up ... time for psu to shut down temple.
 
I will be on a lot of team totals this season sir. Think it's positive EV
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, I'll grade that play out as a B- or so.

I, for one, am encouraged about this game 'somewhat'.

The big thing here is they didn't quit or wilt. They came out of halftime and kept playing. Right there is an obvious improvement. I need to watch full game still which imma try and do here in a little while if I can sneak it in. Utah is a very good team and that was not going to be an easy task. Obviously those early overthrows were killer. That could have changed his confidence, the tempo of the game...everything... but in the end the score was around where I thought it could be so I will take it.

Lucky on missed FG's but didn't see a guy with 5 total picks last year throwing 3 either. I was never expecting him to be a game-changer but at that same point has he ever had that porous of a running game?

Either way, week to week improvement and we'll take the 1-0 start to the gambling year.

And OT, glad I stuck with one play. That WKU tt lean was brutal, lol.
Click to expand...
Nice hit on that TT BAR. slightly iffy but a win is a win and TT unders almost always seem to be a little iffy if you dissect them afterwards.

Watched the whole game carefully, as I plan/ hope to be involved in a few of Mich next .. a few thoughts-- 1) that is the best defense Mich will face for awhile> Mich better get the running game fixed or it will be a long season and I expect they will with upcoming opponents.. As you know I probably have watched more of Ruduck's snaps than anyone on here with a couple exceptions.. He is what he is. And actually his performance was decent IMO. Ya the 3 picks and missed deep balls were not what you want-- but if you play it back most of his reads were solid and he zipped the ball into some small windows, something I took note of.. The reason he was tebowed in Iowa city was the "small arm"-- at least compared to Beathard who took over at QB at SGU. I saw more zip on the ball than I ever saw the last 3 years.. So I think for sure Harbaugh will stick with him, as he should.. The run blocking though was horrendous.. Again, I think that was in large part due to the competition and venue.. I personally hope the market over reacts to Ruducks stat line.. I'm looking to buy if it does.. GL rest of way.
 
337 mich
313 PSU

That hurts me badly. Mich playing the good offense and psu playing a cruddy one. Also, if PSU can't hit 200 yards each game the psu defense will wear down like they did yesterday.
 
Tee and Kyle,

Very good posts. fans

I spent 3:30 am till 5:00 am finally watching the whole game and have two pages of notes. It was good I saw Michigan fans thinking that this is 'doomsday' and the new stylish thing 'Snobbish Sparty' fans having their 2 cents before I watched it completely. I feel even better after watching this game. There were many positive things to take out of this game and Rudock wan't that bad overall when you really look at it.

As said before, turnover margin will be key moving forward.

With Taysom out, they obviously need to win out on OOC play and make improvements each week.
 
As for my week one, I didn't post anything yesterday because i decided to just see where things were headed. My late-night leans would have crushed but early games would have been 'meh'.

I had a couple of action plays on Tree 1h under and ODU 1h under(dollaz) but those were not close to a full unit. Just something to keep things interesting. I got a few nice leans for next week though, gotta finish boxes today and tonight.

Hope all had a great week one.
 
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