Week of Saturday, October 5th Plays and Analysis Thread...

[B.A.R.]

The record is coming shortly...


A quick recap of last week. Overall, I was thrilled with the capping. I wish I had more time last week as I think I could have had a big day. Oh well, life happens.

Mullings again was a pretty easy bet. The 4th quarter is when he should continue to excel with leads. The prop bets might be coming to a halt though as the numbers adjust and the QB issues remain...

Duke and UNC's total was disappointing. We had Duke not show up for a half and that crushed the bet.

Miami 2h TT on Friday took care of the 1h and then some. That is a bet 10 out of 10 times, despite needing all of the game to hit. We had all the elements for that one.

Nebraska TT's split on the posted. I was at an outing and honestly forgot to type the extra unit—no worries, as that 13.5 2h was a gift. I can't believe we nearly won both!

Ohio State team total was pretty easy, despite them not scoring much in the last 25% of the game. Again, MSU is letting this QB learn on the fly and they do not reel him in. Turnovers are big!

Texas State got the job done... a pretty disappointing loss though after a 22-0 lead...

I still like the Oregon TT. I guess 1h should have been the play, or added. Simply put, they only played a half of Football. Add in the pick 6 going in and this is what happens.

Boise 2H tt was a wet dream!

 

[B.A.R.]

We're close to tip-off tonight...

Last year, Texas State had 2 fumbles and 2 turnovers in the game vs Troy...

Troy was a much better opponent as well...

Troy struggling this year at 1-4.

Texas State has had some disappointing 2h's this year with leads at halftime. Last week was another example.

I think they want this one pretty bad. I will go with what has been a pretty good scoring team in 1st halves. If not? Maybe adjust at halftime.

Texas State 1h TT o17.5 -125 2 units

 

[KJ]

We're close to tip-off tonight...

Last year, Texas State had 2 fumbles and 2 turnovers in the game vs Troy...

Troy was a much better opponent as well...

Troy struggling this year at 1-4.

Texas State has had some disappointing 2h's this year with leads at halftime. Last week was another example.

I think they want this one pretty bad. I will go with what has been a pretty good scoring team in 1st halves. If not? Maybe adjust at halftime.

Texas State 1h TT o17.5 -125 2 units

You are a better promotional piece for TX St football than the university itself. Hit up that office and get some gear!

 

[B.A.R.]

We're close to tip-off tonight...

Last year, Texas State had 2 fumbles and 2 turnovers in the game vs Troy...

Troy was a much better opponent as well...

Troy struggling this year at 1-4.

Texas State has had some disappointing 2h's this year with leads at halftime. Last week was another example.

I think they want this one pretty bad. I will go with what has been a pretty good scoring team in 1st halves. If not? Maybe adjust at halftime.

Texas State 1h TT o17.5 -125 2 units

Routine.

With 9 mins left in the half as well.

Over 200 yards in the first 21 mins of play.

Bobcats!!

 

[BiffTFinancial]

Nice easy W, great call BAR!

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice easy W, great call BAR!

Thanks Biff!

 

[pb278817]

The gift that keeps giving. Nice w

 

[B.A.R.]

The gift that keeps giving. Nice w

Thanks.

I actually like the 2h this time around but content with the 2 units.

 

[B.A.R.]

I've been capping all week at different times...

Nothing else has been solidified yet, but here are the thoughts... feedback is always welcomed!


Oregon and Michigan State OVER in the first half... Seeking a flat 27 though...

Pitt and UNC will be on my radar for live/HT and maybe some TT action...

Louisville TT is going to be a pretty good size play...

Navy in some shape or form... at worst in a small ML parlay...

Capping Northwestern a bit more to see how to possibly attack this via Indiana...

Boise State TT likely too rich for my blood... maybe a slow start thought opens up opportunities...

We haven't seen Arizona in a game with a bad defense since New Mexico... this might start some fireworks again... that total will be stalked...

Tennessee will be in a ML parlay....

Situational unders in TAMU and Zoo are being stalked as well. I do like Mizzou on the field as well... Tough environment and Cook best play above and beyond after his comments...

In process of capping Rutgers and Braska as we speak...

Iowa secondary is porous... compared to their standard... OSU pass game should have moments ...

Wisconsin in a ML parlay and perhaps SU as well... maybe Purdue TT under (half or game)...


More capping to come, we'll chat more at lunch and then late-night tomorrow!

 

[B.A.R.]

The 1h total is now a soft 27.5 in Eugene... Still tracking...

Aside from that, I like this a lot...

Michigan St 1h TT o6.5 -110 1.5 units

 

[emg2525]

The 1h total is now a soft 27.5 in Eugene... Still tracking...

Aside from that, I like this a lot...

Michigan St 1h TT o6.5 -110 1.5 units

Good luck with the team total. Seems reasonable.

That being said, I don’t see these teams combining for 53+. Have a weekend!

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck with the team total. Seems reasonable.

That being said, I don’t see these teams combining for 53+. Have a weekend!

Yeah, too many turnovers with these QBs.

That fumble on the 2 ish fucked a great play. This team starts nice then goes down the drain

Pretty drive too.

Feels like a bad beat with the fumble but they have sucked rest of the half.

 

[KJ]

Not an option for me but Oregon defense is by far the best unit on the field

MSU tt under would be my play and pretty large

 

[B.A.R.]

Cuse 2h TT o13.5 -110 2.5 units

 

[B.A.R.]

Cuse 2h TT o13.5 -110 2.5 units

Routine.

 

[B.A.R.]

Louisville tt o31.5 -110 2.5 units
Pitt tt o33.5 -110 1.5 units

Parlay #1 2.00 to win 2.25 units

Navy ML
Tennessee ML
Indiana ML
Iowa St ML

Parlay #2 2.00 to win 2.38 units

Miami FL ML
Indiana ML
Tennessee ML
Wisconsin ML



More to come....

 

[B.A.R.]

Penn St 2h tt o16.5 -120 1.25 units

 

[B.A.R.]

2h Louisville SMU o28 -115 2 units
2h SMU TT o10.5 -115 1.25 units

 

[B.A.R.]

2h Pitt tt o14.5 -115 2.5 units

I honestly want to play more but this basically 4 units with the game one.

They should get 34-38 easily.

 

[B.A.R.]

Wild noon slate for me.

Back at 2:45 with rest of the card.

 

[B.A.R.]

Ohio St tt o31.5 +100
Texas Tech tt o28.5 -110 2 units


A bit more to come, watching numbers. That's it for 3:30 slate though.

Just keeping Indiana ML for now.

 

[B.A.R.]

The sacks killed me in Ville today.

Looking like I may get absolutely skunked here with some bad 4ths. Yuck.

 

[Canes1]

Missed opportunities for ville for sure.

 

[B.A.R.]

TY Pitt

 

[B.A.R.]

2h Alabama tt o20.5 -115

 

[C-MAN]

On it too, GL

 

[B.A.R.]

2hTennessee -6.5 -110

They need the ball -- success will come.

44-23 plays in 1h

TT probably ok but I'm a bit dragger I'll trust the D to step up as they have in the latter parts.

 

[B.A.R.]

1h Texas Tech tt o13.5 -120

 

[B.A.R.]

Tennessee killed my day (Louisville too)

Some rookie mistakes today.

I expected 20 for Miami 2h TT.

Shocked.

Miami 2h TT o16.5 -120 3 units

Don't care if they win, they'll score points.

 

[B.A.R.]

Tech and Zona absolutely boring as can be. Nothing like I expected. Oh well.

 

[RaiderRed]

1h Texas Tech tt o13.5 -120

Routine.

 

[B.A.R.]

Routine.

Broooooo

I saw them at the 11 yard line and flipped the channel for good luck.

Then I saw the alert from yourself and figured this was a winner!

Phew

That 2 point could have been a problem -- was that on purpose?

Now, we have that extra point we need to get over the 28.5 now!!

 

[RaiderRed]

We always run the fucking swinging gate, had the numbers advantage. Scared the shit out of me too.

 

[B.A.R.]

We always run the fucking swinging gate, had the numbers advantage. Scared the shit out of me too.

Heard on that.

Good to see you!

 

[B.A.R.]

With the playoff system...

Losses by...

Georgia
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Alabama.
Etc...

And now possibly Miami aren't backbreaking anymore.

Many of these teams will have a good chance with 2 losses.

I'm basically setting up a thought for later...

 

[B.A.R.]

With the playoff system...

Losses by...

Georgia
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Alabama.
Etc...

And now possibly Miami aren't backbreaking anymore.

Many of these teams will have a good chance with 2 losses.

I'm basically setting up a thought for later...

Basically...

Teams might pack it in earlier (in this case, Miami) a la an NFL team.

Adjust the capping.