Week of Saturday, October 11th Plays and Analysis Thread...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
29-16-4 +9.59 units


This is one of those weeks that I really think I should have made a fair amount of money and actually lost money(2.65 units). Here are some random thoughts on plays I made and did not make...


First and foremost I was high on Sparty ATS and TT. When it was planned out I figured I would have 4 units or so tied to this game. I ended up with 2 units just on the side due to the possible weather issues. Soooo, you can say I am happy only losing the two units. I am, and remember when we luckboxed Ole Miss TT earlier this year then the miracle 4th quarter for Arizona? Well, that 4th quarter in East Lansing was the payback for sure. I felt I capped this game well and I believe I had the right side. Sparty 2H's have been up and down this year and I have been looking more into them a bit this afternoon(and did few days ago as well).

Clemson TT was a cocktease. Right at halftime, I feared that the best we got was a push. That was a good game for 1H TT but that is in hindsight. Great job to all that layed on that game. That was definitely a GOY type of play.

Marshall was as easy as it comes. I would never lay the 18 on road with them coming into the game but they showed me something. I coulda got after the 1h here too but it had the hook and was juiced so I got scurred.

ECU was just what it was. They could not get off field and obviously looked at this game as a scrimmage. Simply not enough time or possessions to get over 49.5.

Baylor was me being stubborn, but as Hunt would say at 36 that is an auto-play. Texas defense is simply very good. Too bad they have no offense. It is what it is here but not a good play, not level-headed.

Wazzou was one Hunt and me kinda talked about early in the week and I played it in afternoon and he got me to go higher later at night(thanks my man). That was the perfect storm for a Team Total. Bad pass defense and a whole lot of possessions. That is just looking at the pedestrian first half(compared to the nutty 2nd half).

Team Total was another dumbass one. Rutgers let DG look like 'Tommie Frazier'(text from Hunt) on a couple of possessions. Not to mention they actually didn't burn the play clock every time. Oh well, smallest play.

I mentioned in thread and am still pissed I passed on OSU at 33. That was dumb and I knew it the second the ball was kicked off.


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This weeks card is uglier than one of Gruvs prom dates...but there might be a spot or two. Anything you can think of please feel free to add to the thread...


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Thanks for the well-wishes last week. So far everything is going 'solid'. Step-by-step and good positive attitudes should make all well.




:cheers3:
 
Gl bro. Good analysis of games. Thanks for talking me off sparty second half. You're right that defense does die down with big leads in 2nd.

Damn right about Baylor regarding number.

Again, gl. Glad I helped a little and thanks again for helping me
 
Very informative look at UM struggles coming outta half(Mr Halftime Adjustments, Brady Hoke).


http://www.maizenbrew.com/2014/10/9...dy-hoke-third-quarter-troubles-inside-numbers







Dating back to last season, Michigan has been one of the worst teams in the nation coming out of the locker room at halftime, which is another poor reflection on Brady Hoke and his coaching staff. What do I mean? I reveal the answer in this week's edition of "Inside the Numbers."
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There are various methods one can use to evaluate the true coaching ability of a head football coach and his staff. Sure, wins and losses will always be looked at first, but there are other ways to reveal certain traits of a particular head coach. For example, if a coach and his staff routinely transform two- and three-star recruits into All-Conference and All-American players, that coach and his staff have a penchant for discovering unheralded players and tapping into their full potential. Just look at what Mark Dantonio is accomplishing in East Lansing despite having not landed a single recruiting class ranked in the top 20 at 247 Sports during his tenure.
Another approach one can use to measure a coach's ability to, well, coach -- and the approach on which I want to focus in this column -- is determining how well that coach makes halftime adjustments. There are many coaches that can cobble together well-developed scouting reports and schemes to capitalize on the opponent's weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the week leading up to Saturday. But often these game plans do not pan out as intended, and it falls on the coaches to huddle together during the intermission and adjust to what they saw in the first half. This is why how a team performs in the third quarter can indicate how well a coach can diagnose correctly what went wrong early and then fix those problems quickly on the fly and in the heat of the moment.

So how well have Brady Hoke and his staff fared in this department recently?
[TABLE="class: sbn-data-table, width: 703, align: center"]
<caption style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan's Third-Quarter Point Differential vs. Power 5 Schools (Last 8 Games)</caption><tbody style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]U-M 3Q Points[/TD]
[TD]Opponent[/TD]
[TD]Opp. 3Q Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Nov. 16, 2013[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Northwestern[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Nov. 23, 2013[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Iowa[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Nov. 30, 2013[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Dec. 28, 2013[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Kansas State[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Sept. 6, 2014[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Sept. 20, 2014[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Sept. 27, 2014[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Oct. 4, 2014[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Rutgers[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]Opponent[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Oh.
I will write it out in case you are unsure if your eyes are lying to you: Hoke's Wolverines have not managed to score a single point in the last eight third quarters they have played against Power 5 schools, while allowing 55 points in the same span. Oof.
I decided to look at Michigan's point differential in the first, second, and fourth quarters of these same eight contests against Power 5 schools to see whether the Wolverines have been experiencing similar struggles in the other three frames, too.
[TABLE="class: sbn-data-table, width: 703, align: center"]
<caption style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan's Quarter-by-Quarter Point Differential vs. Power 5 Schools (Last 8 Games)</caption><tbody style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]1Q[/TD]
[TD]2Q[/TD]
[TD]3Q[/TD]
[TD]4Q/OT[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-even"]
[TD]Opponent[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]229[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: ui-state-odd"]
[TD]Margin[/TD]
[TD]-21[/TD]
[TD]-12[/TD]
[TD]-55[/TD]
[TD]+10[/TD]
[TD]-78[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
In a single word: no.
Michigan generally has allowed its recent Power 5 opponents to run into the locker room at halftime with a small lead, but the deficits are not of the sort that cannot be overcome. Usually, these still have been very competitive contests heading into the break. However, once the third quarter begins, the Wolverines tend to dig themselves a giant hole, allowing the opponent to either maintain its lead and kill clock or pull away and remove any shred of doubt which team will be the victor before the fourth quarter even begins.
This is yet another indictment of Hoke's inability to be a competent head coach at this level of college football. For the past year, week in and week out, Hoke has been completely manhandled by opposing head coaches that have a similar caliber of talent to Michigan. These coaches are heading into halftime and making the necessary adjustments to properly counter the Wolverines' first-half strategy, while Hoke does who knows what in the locker room. Even coaches with teams that have far inferior talent can make certain changes at halftime that result in at least one third-quarter point in eight games against Power 5 schools. Yet, at Michigan, Hoke cannot.
This is where you joke about Hoke not wearing a headset or clapping on the sideline.
 
To get it started...



Michigan State 1H tt O20 +115 1.14 units
Notre Dame tt O40 -110 1.5 units
Wisconsin tt O41.5 -110
Marshall 1H tt O24.5 -130
West Virginia tt 042 -110
 
To get it started...



Michigan State 1H tt O20 +115 1.14 units
Notre Dame tt O40 -110 1.5 units
Wisconsin tt O41.5 -110
Marshall 1H tt O24.5 -130
West Virginia tt 042 -110

Add another half unit to ND, same number.
 
TCU defense doesnt scare you?

Yes and no. That first drive where Baylor didn't score showed both facets. OU put up points and yards hoping Baylor can do the same. I need 17 by half though. They gotta score next possession.
 
Not a great start.

Marshall automatic as always. They play at noon seemingly every week so I think that is why I don't stake them as I should.

WVU finally got into gear in 2h. Asking for OT was too much I guess.

Wisky just has no QB. They ran as expected but also stopped playing early 4th. It almost bit them in the arse.

Finally, from the morning slate I had planned on playing Jorja in some capacity but never did with the suspension. Smarter people didn't move the line much and it showed. Missouri is godawful. I knew that before today but they took even a bigger step backwards.
 
Get some of that tulane juice and sprinkle in some old piss? Either way good luck boss
 
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