Week of Saturday, August 31st Plays and Analysis Thread...

[B.A.R.]

Hey all,

Mise well start out with a real retro title. Admittedly, not much analysis will happen this week as I have been up against it in many phases.

I'll list all the futures and whatnot here for reference later. Most of these have been posted or talked about in the off-season. Some have much better numbers now for what it is worth. I'll come back in and give my thoughts on whether or not I would play them still. In keeping with the theme of CTG this fall, I want to be transparent with WAN's when recommending plays all season long. No unit assignment for these since some numbers are not there -- this is simply to show you what I am rooting for.

As always, I'll try and post as much as I can of my card. A lot of live plays will be missed though -- timing and also if a number is gone, what is the point?

Here is what I have for the Futures...


National Championship:


Tennessee +2800
Tennessee +3500
Missouri +4000
Arizona +6600
Boise St +75000
Clemson +3300
Ole Miss +1400
Ole Miss +1500
Oregon +850


Heisman:


Ollie Gordon +7500
Jalon Daniels +3500
Nico Iamaleava +1800


RSW:

Hawaii o5.5 -115
Kansas 08 -120



Many of those futures were played in the middle of January when Hunt and I did a way too early cap. Many of those are pretty small overall. Oregon is multi-units and Tennessee and Ole Miss each are just over a unit.

The Kansas schedule sets up a run to a lot of wins IMO, which will help Jalon. He needs to stay healthy.

I also played that RSW for the Jayhawks after a lot of thought. I see 9 as the floor unless something weird happens. I am going with 10-2 for this squad. Tea probably thinks I am trolling him right now!

Hawaii was posted last week in my week zero thread.

As far as futures, I want to stockpile a few more numbers in-season as we gear up on this new era!

How things will work this year.... I'll have a weekly thread when time permits and also will post all my B10 thoughts in that thread as well....

Good luck to all...

 

[B.A.R.]

Thursday Night Action


Kansas 1H -30.5 -110 2.20 units to win 2.00
Jacksonville St ML -165 2.5 to win 1.52 units


That is a pretty high tariff in the Jayhawk game but with a pace like that, I think we see 35/38/42 to 0 at the break. Unless they are just super vanilla.

JSU and RichRod should pull away in the 2h to win by 7-13 points.

I'll be tracking Minnesota and NDSU as well -- definitely lean both squads but will try to find something in-game or at HT.

Good luck tonight all, football is BACK!!

 

[KJ]

P-Unit said lots of rain in Minny tonight. No clue how to predict that one now.

 

[B.A.R.]

Coaching matters...

Should shut out in 2h, I don't see Howard trying a FG unless very early in the half ..

Rutgers 2h -13.5 -110 1.5 units

 

[Docholliday]

Coaching matters...

Should shut out in 2h, I don't see Howard trying a FG unless very early in the half ..

Rutgers 2h -13.5 -110 1.5 units

Nice call. Followed ya on that one.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice call. Followed ya on that one.

Thank you.

Made sense to me.

I felt that 2h number would be 16.5 at the minimum if not 17.5

Played out perfectly.

Coaching is a big part of that bet.

A few Rutgers concerns though from this one.

 

[B.A.R.]

That JSU bet will go down as one of the funniest ones in sometime. Wow. I actually feel better with how bad it was.

Kansas was the right play, albeit we took almost every last second to win that 1h bet. The sloppy first 17 minutes kept this one interesting.

Ended up taking @BenchCoach 1st quarter under in Minneapolis too. That just made a lot of sense and that's one of his great attributes in CFB capping (quarters).

 

[B.A.R.]

I am not looking at much of anything for Friday...

Although I think we possibly can find an angle or two in the Wisconsin game. I'll sleep and study a bit before making a final decision.

The only pending bet for Saturday I posted a while back weeks ago...

Nebraska o49 -110 3 units

 

[HUNT]

Have a year big fella. Good work last night.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nate Carter Rush Yards O74.5 -120

 

[B.A.R.]

2h West Virginia tt u10.5 -115 (pph)

 

[B.A.R.]

Milroe o1.5 Pass TD -201 (BOL)

Samford -19.5 -110 (PPH)

 

[B.A.R.]

From all my personal reading and mostly the s--k thread I am fading the West Georgia first game here. I am under key numbers (and a potential missed XP)

As far as WVU -- zero reason to kick a FG down 14 right now as PSU will score 10-17 more. Despite 4 trips to PSU territory I expect we see PSU shut them down to one score this half. Potential weather on the way as well.

Milroe should showcase today. I always like finding offensive plays and overs in WKU games. I am still stalking Bama TT's here as well in some shape or form.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nebraska tt o37.5 -120 (pph) 2 units

 

[B.A.R.]

Tailing CTG's finest here ..

 

[B.A.R.]

First WTF loss of the year is that Nebraska over.

Glad I added TT to help out but jeez man.

 

[B.A.R.]

2h UNLV tto10.5 -115

2 units

 

[B.A.R.]

2h Texas Tech o27 -110

2.5 units

 

[B.A.R.]

2h Kentucky u21 -110.

1.5 units

 

[pb278817]

First WTF loss of the year is that Nebraska over.

Glad I added TT to help out but jeez man.

Tailed you on the over. Nice reminder how sick this game can be. Good call on the tt

 

[B.A.R.]

Live - Arizona u45.5 first half -108

 

[B.A.R.]

Live -- Arizona TT o51.5 live -112

2 units

Should get 55-59.

 

[B.A.R.]

3rd Quarter Arizona New Mexico o13.5 -149

1.5 units

 

[B.A.R.]

Last one...

Arizona 2h TT o21 -110

2 units

 

[PASEAZ]

Get it BAR

 

[B.A.R.]

Get it BAR

Thanks man!

Nice to have a no sweat 3Q bet!

Hopefully get that 3rd tuddy in this quarter and have the rest of the half to cash the TTs

 

[B.A.R.]

Tally the first two weeks tomorrow night but a 9ish unit finish (late show) brings some momentum into next week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Prop -- Miss USC o287.5 pass yards -120

 

[B.A.R.]

Live LSU USD 1Q over 13.5 -143

 

[B.A.R.]

Bad first drive ending

Bad play call on first stalled drive.

Plus, used 1/8th of game. Hurts the opponent prop too.

Yuck.

We'll find a winner.

 

[B.A.R.]

2h USC TT o14.5 -120

2.5 units

 

[Timh]

Nice work BAR, BOL on the season!

 

[B.A.R.]

Castellano's Rush Yards o62.5 -120 (PPH)

1.25 units.

 

[B.A.R.]

Summary:


Week Zero: 0-3 (3.25 units)
Week One: 13-7 +10.64 units



A few bad beats and maybe a front door or two.

A few brutal caps, no doubt.

The late-nights helped out quite a bit.

Nice cap last night with the prop. Whoever put that in our collective heads a year ago to play his props -- great work -- that has to be 6-2 or so on his props in the last year.

On another prop note -- That could be the last freebie for Miller Moss -- although an under is possible on September 21st.

Arizona is simply a fun team -- that was awesome the other night for bets and entertainment

 

[HUNT]

Great job Reno! Get em baby!