smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD:
Got a bit emotional last week prior to the Saints game. Cashed that one huge, and reinstalled my faith in myself, LOL.
Here is my tip sheet for Week 9. Will be back w/ plays once the markets settle on numbers I like:
Week 9:
MAC = Margin Against Close: Negative numbers = under performance against closing number, positive numbers equal outperforming the closing number. Negative numbers indicate did not cover, positive indicate did cover.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND a non-cover last out are 8-1 ATS
Week 9 qualifiers: JETS (-61.5) – JETS 0-7-1 ATS YTD
QUICK VIEW: Yardage Differential Last 4
[TABLE="width: 95, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Offensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Defensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Yardage Differential
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#1 Indianapolis Colts (458.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (258.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (184.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#2 New Orleans Saints (447.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Kansas City Chiefs (274.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Indianapolis Colts (109.75)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#3 Denver Broncos (442.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Minnesota Vikings (293.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 New Orleans Saints (102.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#4 New England Patriots (427.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 San Francisco 49'ers (301.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 Dallas Cowboys (93.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (424.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Seattle Seahawks (311.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Kansas City Chiefs (84.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#6 Dallas Cowboys (417.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Buffalo Bills (311.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 San Francisco 49'ers (75.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#7 Green Bay Packers (385.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 Jacksonville Jaguars (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 New England Patriots (62.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#8 Philadelphia Eagles (383.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Detroit Lions (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Pittsburgh Steelers (61.50)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#9 San Francisco 49'ers (376.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (321.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (50.75)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#10 Miami Dolphins (372.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Dallas Cowboys (324.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Seattle Seahawks (34.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Mia -2 44.5 vs SD (open Mia -1)
Trends backing San Diego
Last 14 games, Chargers are 10-4 ATS
12-3 ATS as a regular season underdog
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 3 of 16 against the spread
SD better coach, better QB.
Brandon Flowers back this week. #1 rated CB by PFF.
Early start for SD
It is a 10 am body clock start time for San Diego on the east coast
but keep in mind that the Charges benefit from extra rest off a Thursday game.
SD +9 vs close L4, but 0-3 ATS L3 -15 vs close. +24 W5 vs NYJ. Potential reversal. SD -1.1 L4 NET PR vs season, lost 2 straight to Denver and KC. Prior 3 wins teams a combined -23.7 PR.
Miami Season stats good
Miami passing defense: #3
Miami pass defense (yards per attempt): #1
Miami has had only one game this season with a margin less than 13 points.
LW
Late in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Miami won game by 14 points.
Miami better on ROAD ATS than at home.
Miami as a home favorite: 10-36 against the spread that’s 22%. Since 1994. Since 2009, Mia 8-14-1 ATS as home favorite. Mia when PK to -2.5 at home: 6-8-1 ATS and 7-8 SU since 2009. BUT, Mia 2-0 ATS as home favorite of PK to 2.5 when facing “good teams” – winning % over 60% - since 2009.
Mia season high +41.5 ATS vs closing number L4, only +15 on the season. Miami +3.9 L3 NET PR over last 4. Opponents Miami defeated (Oak, Chi, Jax) PR NET -18.4 over that period.
Summary:
Numbers say that Miami has outperformed the number over the last 4 to the point where they are due for a negative performance. SD has lost a season high 3 straight ATS for a combined -15 net vs the closing number. LEAN SD.
JAX +10.5 43 @ Cincy (open Cin -13)
Cincy Strong at home
Cincy at home: covered 12 of 13 regular season games
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during 2013 regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
Cincy Stats Not Strong
Cincy defense: #30
Cincy yardage differential: -324 (ranked 25[SUP]th[/SUP]) -104 L4 (ranked 30[SUP]th[/SUP])
Cincy first 3 games +36.5 vs closing number. Next 3 games -62.5 vs closing number. Last week, Cincy outperformed vs the closing number by +6. Cincy -6.9 NET PR L4 vs season, worst in NFL.
NO BERNARD, limited Green – where are the play makers for Cincy?
Cincy AMOV at home: 10.8 this season. 10.6 over last 2 seasons.
(Cincy) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
Jags D emerging
Jags D has held opposing offenses to 3 touchdowns the last 4 games. In the four games priors, Jags yielded 38 points per game.
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 5 of last 26
Late in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Bortles has played 6 games and has 15 turnovers.
Jags Denard Robinson: Sunday: 108 yards rushing. Prior week: 127 yards rushing
Jags sacked 33 times (most in NFL)
Cincy defense has yielded lowest QB rating in NFL.
Both head coaches were coordinators with Cincinnati last year.
Jags +9.8 NET vs closing number, still best over L4. +19.5 vs closing number L4. Teams was -63.5 over first 4 games. Strong signs of improvement.
Summary:
Game likely to close under DD. Lack of weapons for Cincy a concern, but does Jax have enough to hang in their given their own turnover issues? UNDER 43 looks appealing.
Tb @ Cle -6.5 43.5
How bad is Tampa?
Tampa only team outgained every game this season (7 this season, 10 straight overall)
Tampa Bay shutout through 3 quarters last week by Vikings.
Tampa -113 Yardage Diff L4 (31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL).
Tampa last in NFL at -73.5 vs closing number. L4 -17 vs close. Were +15.5 over wk4 and 5, before -27.5 in wk 6 (vs Balt 17-48). Bye wk 7, then last week -5 against close, with OT loss vs Minn. TB out FD 22-13, 23 rushes for 66 yds. Tampa +4.1 NET PR L4 vs season. Worst PR in league over season.
Mack Loss Huge:
First game for Browns without Center Mack: 30 rushes from 69 yards (John Greco moved over from RG, and Paul McQuistan, who started 14 games for Seattle and grabbed a Super Bowl ring LY, played RG)
Second game without Mack: 25 rushes for 39 yards (Nick McDonald, who only has four career starts, and last played in 2012, was signed to play center, with Greco being moved back to RG, and McQuistin to the bench)
First time since 1995 favored by more than a FG for a third straight game.
First time ever Browns favored by 5 points or more a third straight game (25 years of data)
Browns travel to Cincinnati on Thursday. Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards last week Cleveland defense: #29
Cleveland is EVEN L4 against closing number, post wk5 by posted a +18.5 vs close, and then -22 (@ jax). Last week +3.5 vs Oak. +1.68 NET PR L4 vs season.
Cle 3-1 L4, but played the 28[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked schedule. Combine week schedule w/ an EVEN number vs the closing number, team is UNDERPEFROMING VS THE SPEAD.
Summary:
Bad spot for Cleveland, team underperforming vs spread. Tampa game will be hard to get up for w/ Cincy on deck and recent competition being weak. Tampa off game they were expected to win (-2.5 favorite over Minn last week), so public down on TB. TAMPA A BET AT +7, assuming no drama this week.
Minn PK, 43.5 vs Wash (Open Minn -1 44)
WASH in unfamiliar waters
RG3 return: combination of rust and questions about being 100%, NO upgrade to Washington with return of RG3, more likely a downgrade. Team has had 3 different QB’s this season, no chance to build chemistry.
Even with below average quarterbacking this season, Washington’s WRs have performed exceptionally (1200 yards after catch; yards per completion #2 in NFL)
Washington passing (yards per attempt): #1
Washington: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential in league, drops to 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in L4.
Wash short week of Dallas win as 9 PT dog.
Wash 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] road game in 4 weeks.
Situation for Wash: Bad team (Wash) off a road win, and win ATS where they outperformed number by 10+, next game on the road, and team (Wash) is a pk to -1: ONLY 9 occurances since 1985: Team in Wash spot is 1-8 SU, 2-5-1 ATS. Only ONCE has a team in Wash’s spot been favored. Begs to ask, who the is Wash to be favored in this spot?
Wash +0.7 NET PR vs season L4. Wash -7 vs closing line L4. Improvement over -17.5 vs closing line first 4.
If Washington favored: Wash as favorite: 53-83-3 ATS
Wash offensive getting worse: O 11[SUP]th[/SUP] NFL L4, 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YTD
All three quarterbacks combined have thrown 45.5% of their passes within the 0-9 yard window, with just 12.5 attempts traveling 20 yards or more through the air. The receivers are expected to turn short passes into large gains through their feet; as Pierre Garcon did for his 70 yard touchdown in Week 8.
If Minny Stays favored
Would be the first time Minny is favored in over a calendar year
Minny as a favorite: 2-8 ATS streak
Washington as underdog: 5-12 ATS
Minny’s QB Play
Minny: 5 TD passes (least in NFL)
Vikings in last 4 weeks have yielded 20 sacks
Minny -28.5 mac L4. Two straight covers w/ mac +10.5 (at Buf, at TB). Minny +0.6 NET PR L4
Minny -13.50 yardage diff L4 (19[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL). YTD 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL.
Minny D 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YPG, but 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL L4 – Lead NFL in sacks w/ 17 over last 4, BUT sacked 20 times last 4 – worst in NFL.
Minny O 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YPG, 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL L4
Min/Wash SUMMARY:
Minny has had difficulty scoring. Wash going to RG is going to have an adjustment period, given Minnys pass rush over last 4, time will be at a premium. Given the conservative nature of the Wash offensive, and the flat out inefficiency of Minny’s offense, large chunks of yards will be a premium. Both teams amongst the lead worse in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down efficiency and scoring efficiency. Favor Minny and under.
Phila -1.5 48.5 @ Hou
Phila overvalued by public.
ESPN.com ranks Philly as the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best team
My PR has them 7[SUP]th [/SUP] YTD, but -1.6 NET L4 vs season
Philly’s yardage differential is 15th in the league, and 17[SUP]th[/SUP] over last 4.
STILL PHILA with +22.5 MAC over L4, but outlier wk6 +27.5 vs NYG. Other 3: -2.5 (@ SF), +2.5 (vs STL), -5 (@ AZ).
Rams game could have been a loss, AZ game could have been a win. Bottom line, is that Eagles win games: Philly has won 12 of last 15 regular season games.
Compared to last season Philly has gained 11% LESS yards per offense snap in 2014. Is league catching up, or is it the offensive line injuries and the loss of D.Jax the top downfield threat? I believe it’s latter. Kelly too good a coach, and scheme isn’t complicated: Run sets up pass.
Eagles have scored seven TDs from their defense or special teams, while not allowing any.
Phila offense -12 turnovers last 4 and team net of -6 = worst in league over that span. Hou +2 over same time.
Eagles have yielded only 2 sacks their last 6 games (sacked total of 7 times this season – least in NFL)
(Philly) NFL away favorite off game as away underdog: 19-5-1 ATS streak
HOU:
Hou 4-4, w/ 21[SUP]st[/SUP] easiest schedule and 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in RPI rating.
Hou 4 wins come against clubs that have gone a combined 10-22 SU.
Hou not in Philly class.
Houston 20[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage differential , 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] over L4
Houston has given up 10 sacks combined the last two weeks. Phila 16 sacks L4 – 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL
Hou +6 mac L4, despite 1-3 SU. NET even PR L4.
Hou third in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 48.3 percent rate. The Eagles are fifth in offense, averaging 398.7 yards, but they’re last in the red zone. They score touchdowns at a rate of 34.8% rate
Summary:
If odds makers are correct with their number and we have a 1 possession game, I think it goes UNDER.
Jets @ KC -9 42
Huge Anti-Jets Sentiment
Jets have covered only ONE GAME this season – least in NFL
12 of last 13 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Last week’s loss to Buffalo was a crusher … Jets motivation is now certainly a question – but note that Rex Ryan has been an excellent motivator over the years.
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 38 turnovers
Vick had 3 turnovers in partial game vs. Buffalo
Vick has an awful 48.2 Passer Rating this season, and has been sacked seven times in only 63 drop-backs, with four fumbles. Coach Reid has deep knowledge of QB Vick.
Jets covered 8 of 10 as underdog by a TD or more
Jets FIT MAC play as they enter this game a -61.5 in their last 4 games, and a -73 overall. Jets -2.7 NET PR L4 vs Season number.
Jets yardage differential: -11 yards this season (near even, implying an average team)
Jets passing offense: #32
Jets passing (yards per attempt): #32
Jets scoring defense: #30
Jets defense has yielded highest QB rating in league
Jets have given up 22 TD passes this season – most in NFL
Jets have intercepted 1 pass this season – least in NFL
Jets have thrown 7 TD passes this season – second least in NFL
Jets have thrown 11 interceptions this season – second most in NFL
Jets rushing offense: #4
KC rushing offense: #3
KC:
Early line on this game (before last week’s games): KC -5.5
Most points KC favored by in any game since 2000
KC favored by over a TD: 21-1 SU (16-6 ATS)
KC: Alex Smith last 49 games as a starter: 35-13-1 SU
KC DC Bob Sutton was DC for Jets under Rex Ryan
KC rushing offense: #3
KC defense: #3
KC passing defense: #1
KC scoring defense: #3
KC: 5-2 ATS. +73.5 mac L4. +60.5 highest mac in the league. Throw 1[SUP]st[/SUP] game of season and KC mac is +85.5. Team has hit the ceiling. KC NET PR L4 is +4.3. Due for a subpar performance
SUMMARY:
JETS the clear play as you have one team that is severely UNDERRATED against the spread and one that is now overrated vs spread. Correction should occur. JETS +9 a play.
AZ +3 44.5 @ Dallas (open Dal -4, 45 – Romo injury)
Romo
If Romo were 100%, this line would be about right
but there’s a good chance he won’t be 100%
and there’s a small chance he won’t even play
Dallas as home favorite:
Dallas as home favorite: covered only 7 of last 28 games
Dallas’ strong rushing this season has obscured the fact that their defense may be NO BETTER than last year’s historically bad unit …
Opponent Completion %:
2013: 64.7 … 2014: 66.4
Opponent Yards Per Pass:
2013: 7.8 … 2014: 7.4
Opponent Yards Per Rush:
2013: 4.7 … 2014: 4.8
Sack % per opponent pass attempt:
2013 … 5.2% … 2014 … 3.4%
The points allowed have dropped because the offense has been controlling the ball more, allowing 57.6 plays per game to the opposition, down from 67.8 in 2013. But when the other side does snap the ball, the defense has not really been any better at all.
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (51-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Dallas – in midst of 5 home games out of 6 games
Tony Romo in November has won 24 of 29 games (SU)
Note that LB Justin Durant was lost for the season last week. Durant was Dallas’ best healthy linebacker. Highest PFF grade of current group.
Dal +7 mac L4, 2-2 ATS. +43.5 on season, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in NFL. Dal +1.8 NET PR L4 versus season.
AZ:
Arizona’s Impressive W/L Results
Arizona stats are not great
Arizona yardage differential: -361 yards (26[SUP]th[/SUP] in league), -104.5 L4 (31[SUP]st[/SUP] in league)
but last 16 games
Arizona is 13-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points)
Losing only 3 against the spread
#3 in the league have not allowed a 100 yard rusher this season
Return of Arizona DL C. Campbell is meaningful
Arizona’s Patrick Peterson left game in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Quarter with a concussion. Expected to play this week.
Cards on road 42-55-4 ATS (since 2002)
Carson Palmer with TD passes of 75 and 80 yards last week
(Cardinals) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
Arizona: #25 offense
Arizona passing defense: #32 – AZ Def Diff L4 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in league (-429)
Arizona has thrown only 1 interception this season.
Arizona +9 turnovers (second best in NFL)
Arizona rush defense: #3
Dallas rushing offense: #1
AZ +2 mac L4. +22 mac in THREE games prior. Az -2.4 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY
Lean AZ and Dallas TT Under. Romo health a concern, and if Dallas cannot run the ball w/ Weeden in the game it’s lights out.
SF -9.5 43.5 vs STL (open 9.5 44)
Second meeting between teams in last 4 weeks.
STL +3.5 at home, now +9.5 at SF. 12 PT swing, when considering home field. SF won 31-17 IN STL.
SF Off a Loss and Bye
Coach Harbaugh has lost 13 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only four times.
Harbaugh with extra rest (bye, Thursday game, or first game of season): 10-3 ATS
Overall … 49ers have lost only 7 of last 23 games ATS
Possible Look ahead
San Fran plays at New Orleans next week
***OTHER
SF with Harbaugh: 37-21-5 ATS overall
San Fran Center Kilgore injured out. Rookie Marcus Martin will get his first start. Kilgore 11[SUP]th[/SUP] best center in NFL this season per PFF. Overall a +4.6 grade. Consider that Alex Mack is #4 at 6.9. Scott Wells (STL) has been worst center in NFL -11.6 grade.
Rookie Marcus Martin, 20, a third-round pick who hasn’t played this season because of a knee injury he sustained in the preseason, will have the first chance to replace Kilgore in the starting lineup.
Chris Cook (DB) placed on IR
SF L4 before bye-week -4 mac. -23.5 mac on season.
Rams Beat Up
Three members of the OL, Scott Wells, Jake Long and Roger Saffold, left and did not return last week. WR Brian Quick was lost, as was DE Williams Hayes, as well as Cody Davis and Rodney McLeod from the secondary. Saffold probable, Wells probable.
(Rams) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
Rams rush defense: #31
Rams scoring defense: #31
Rams defense has 6 sacks this season – least in NFL
STL -23.5 mac L4. -49.5 mac on season. STL +0.4 NET PR L4. STL 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] hardest schedule L4 (@Phi, vs SF, vs SEA, @ Kc).
SUMMARY:
Rams look to be undervalued. Better on the board. Pass.
Den -3 54.5 @ NE
37[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 38 that Denver has been favored
Broncos since start of last season: 21-5 SU (winning 20 times by a TD or more)
Pats home dog!
Biggest home underdog for Patriots since 2005
New England has won 41 of 44 regular season home games (SU)
As Underdog: Bill Belichick with Patriots: 39-21-1 ATS
Brady as home underdog in his career: 9-2 ATS
Tom Brady on passes 15 yards or more downfield:
Week 1 and 2: 12.3 QBR Since: 99 QBR
Rob Gronkowski not only played a good statistical game Sunday, but his physicality now seems back near 100%.
(Pats) NFL teams playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight home game, going for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON MANNINGS BALL THAN BRADY’s
Patriots passing defense: #2
Pats +11 turnovers (best in NFL)
Pats +41.5 mac L4, includes -30 effort against Cincy. Pats +38 mac on season. NE +2.6 NET PR L4 vs season. Team is slightly overvalued.
DEN:
Denver off Thursday game (extra rest) In Manning’s career, off a Thursday game: 8-3 ATS (3-0 in Denver, covering by at least 14 points every game)
Manning excels with extra prep time.
Broncos THIRD game in TWO weeks. Travelling cross country for this one.
For example: Manning has covered 9 straight off a full bye.
Denver with Manning as a favorite 26-12 ATS.
Denver defense: #4
Denver rush defense: #1
Den #1 in NFL L4 Yardage Diff +184, #1 Def yards/game.
Den +41 mac L4 - +31.5 on season, have covered L4. DEN +2.2 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY
Why is Denver a 3 pt favorite? NE +3 and ML for me.
Oak +14 43 @ Sea (opened Sea -15 41.5)
Biggest favorite EVER for team with 4-3 record (data goes back 25 years)
Zero Win Teams add zeros to your winnings!
(Oakland) NFL winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (97-57-5 since 1992)
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962 (started that season 0-13)
Oakland has scored more than 14 points ONLY ONCE this season
Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards, but Raiders were down 23-6 until Oakland TD with 7 seconds left in game.
(Oakland) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
Oak -26.5 mac L4, but -6.5 mac L3 after bye week. Oak even NET PR L4 vs season.
SEA:
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-25-2) ; 2-1 ATS in 2014.
Seattle: 26-12-1 ATS overall last 39 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-11-1 ATS
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
Russell Wilson at QB: 19-2 SU at home (15-6 ATS)
Seattle laying over TD at home: 18-6-1 ATS (since 2005)
Seattle -23 mac L4, failed to cover in last 3. Sea -2.6 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY:
Line is inflated. +14 is an Oak line. Increase in total w/ decrease in line – favors dog.
Balt -2 47.5 @ Pitt (open pk 44)
First time since 1991 Steelers a home underdog for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] straight game
Pitt home underdog 8 times in regular season since 2000
Nature of this series
9 out of last 12 Pittsburgh/Baltimore games have been decided by 3-points or less
6 straight Ravens at Steelers (in Pitt) regular season matchups decided by exactly 3 points.
Only 3 of last 24 Pitt/Balt has produced more than 43 combined points
Pitt
Pittsburgh: Extra thin Corner after Ike Taylor injury
Since injury, Pittsburgh has faced:
Mike Glennon
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Last week, Andrew Luck threw for 400 yards with 3 TDs
Pitt 8[SUP]th[/SUP] over in Yardage Diff L4 (+61.50), drop from 5[SUP]th[/SUP] overall rating on season (58.75). 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in Def y/g on season (357.88), 17[SUP]th[/SUP] in L4 (363).
Steelers gained 639 yards of offense last week, Colts did have key DB injuries during game.
Steelers own DBs struggled. Big questions in Pitt secondary.
(Pitt) NFL teams playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight home game, going for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
(Pitt) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
Pitt +9 mac L4. Have covered three of four in that stretch. Prior 4 games -9.5 mac –nice improvement.
Pitt -0.3 NET PR L4 vs season, despite covering three of four – makes you think it’s more the competition than Pitt figuring things out. L4 (@Jax (W) @Cle (W), Hou (W), Indy (W)). Pitt of highest mac of season +21.5
Ravens off loss
Ravens off loss: 23-5 the next game (straight-up)
2 instances this season … won by 20 and 31 points.
Baltimore’s 24 points given up last week most this season by Ravens. = new trend?
Baltimore scoring defense: #2
Ravens have given up 7 TD passes this season – least in NFL
CB Jimmy Smith OUTjoins Asa Jackson on the sidelines from that position.
Rotation is down to Lardarius Webb, still not back to form following a back injury; Dominique Franks, who re-signed on October 7 after being cut back in August; and Chykie Brown, who has been inactive the last two weeks - NOT GOOD.
Ravens: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in last 5
Baltimore +32 mac L4, +65 mac for season, sign that odds makers catching up. Ravens -2.9 NET PR L4 vs season. Moreover reduced MAC came against 2 teams at the bottom of the league (TB and ATL – Balt racked up +42.5 mac vs those two teams, -10.5 mac against Indy and Cincy).
SUMMARY:
It would appear that the Steelers are in position to outperform the number. Baltimore trending down, and now a favorite in Pitt? I think value lies with Pitt.
Be back with plays. Comments welcome. :shake:
- Sides: 15-11 +5.55
- Totals: 7-12 -5.97
- Team Totals: 1-1 -.44
- Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
- Teasers: 4-6 -8.60
- Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
- 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total -1.10
- Parlay: 0-2 -3.00
Got a bit emotional last week prior to the Saints game. Cashed that one huge, and reinstalled my faith in myself, LOL.
Here is my tip sheet for Week 9. Will be back w/ plays once the markets settle on numbers I like:
Week 9:
MAC = Margin Against Close: Negative numbers = under performance against closing number, positive numbers equal outperforming the closing number. Negative numbers indicate did not cover, positive indicate did cover.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND a non-cover last out are 8-1 ATS
Week 9 qualifiers: JETS (-61.5) – JETS 0-7-1 ATS YTD
QUICK VIEW: Yardage Differential Last 4
[TABLE="width: 95, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Offensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Defensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Yardage Differential
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#1 Indianapolis Colts (458.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (258.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (184.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#2 New Orleans Saints (447.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Kansas City Chiefs (274.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Indianapolis Colts (109.75)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#3 Denver Broncos (442.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Minnesota Vikings (293.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 New Orleans Saints (102.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#4 New England Patriots (427.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 San Francisco 49'ers (301.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 Dallas Cowboys (93.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (424.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Seattle Seahawks (311.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Kansas City Chiefs (84.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#6 Dallas Cowboys (417.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Buffalo Bills (311.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 San Francisco 49'ers (75.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#7 Green Bay Packers (385.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 Jacksonville Jaguars (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 New England Patriots (62.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#8 Philadelphia Eagles (383.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Detroit Lions (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Pittsburgh Steelers (61.50)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#9 San Francisco 49'ers (376.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (321.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (50.75)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#10 Miami Dolphins (372.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Dallas Cowboys (324.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Seattle Seahawks (34.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Mia -2 44.5 vs SD (open Mia -1)
Trends backing San Diego
Last 14 games, Chargers are 10-4 ATS
12-3 ATS as a regular season underdog
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 3 of 16 against the spread
SD better coach, better QB.
Brandon Flowers back this week. #1 rated CB by PFF.
Early start for SD
It is a 10 am body clock start time for San Diego on the east coast
but keep in mind that the Charges benefit from extra rest off a Thursday game.
SD +9 vs close L4, but 0-3 ATS L3 -15 vs close. +24 W5 vs NYJ. Potential reversal. SD -1.1 L4 NET PR vs season, lost 2 straight to Denver and KC. Prior 3 wins teams a combined -23.7 PR.
Miami Season stats good
Miami passing defense: #3
Miami pass defense (yards per attempt): #1
Miami has had only one game this season with a margin less than 13 points.
LW
Late in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Miami won game by 14 points.
Miami better on ROAD ATS than at home.
Miami as a home favorite: 10-36 against the spread that’s 22%. Since 1994. Since 2009, Mia 8-14-1 ATS as home favorite. Mia when PK to -2.5 at home: 6-8-1 ATS and 7-8 SU since 2009. BUT, Mia 2-0 ATS as home favorite of PK to 2.5 when facing “good teams” – winning % over 60% - since 2009.
Mia season high +41.5 ATS vs closing number L4, only +15 on the season. Miami +3.9 L3 NET PR over last 4. Opponents Miami defeated (Oak, Chi, Jax) PR NET -18.4 over that period.
Summary:
Numbers say that Miami has outperformed the number over the last 4 to the point where they are due for a negative performance. SD has lost a season high 3 straight ATS for a combined -15 net vs the closing number. LEAN SD.
JAX +10.5 43 @ Cincy (open Cin -13)
Cincy Strong at home
Cincy at home: covered 12 of 13 regular season games
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during 2013 regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
Cincy Stats Not Strong
Cincy defense: #30
Cincy yardage differential: -324 (ranked 25[SUP]th[/SUP]) -104 L4 (ranked 30[SUP]th[/SUP])
Cincy first 3 games +36.5 vs closing number. Next 3 games -62.5 vs closing number. Last week, Cincy outperformed vs the closing number by +6. Cincy -6.9 NET PR L4 vs season, worst in NFL.
NO BERNARD, limited Green – where are the play makers for Cincy?
Cincy AMOV at home: 10.8 this season. 10.6 over last 2 seasons.
(Cincy) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
Jags D emerging
Jags D has held opposing offenses to 3 touchdowns the last 4 games. In the four games priors, Jags yielded 38 points per game.
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 5 of last 26
Late in 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Bortles has played 6 games and has 15 turnovers.
Jags Denard Robinson: Sunday: 108 yards rushing. Prior week: 127 yards rushing
Jags sacked 33 times (most in NFL)
Cincy defense has yielded lowest QB rating in NFL.
Both head coaches were coordinators with Cincinnati last year.
Jags +9.8 NET vs closing number, still best over L4. +19.5 vs closing number L4. Teams was -63.5 over first 4 games. Strong signs of improvement.
Summary:
Game likely to close under DD. Lack of weapons for Cincy a concern, but does Jax have enough to hang in their given their own turnover issues? UNDER 43 looks appealing.
Tb @ Cle -6.5 43.5
How bad is Tampa?
Tampa only team outgained every game this season (7 this season, 10 straight overall)
Tampa Bay shutout through 3 quarters last week by Vikings.
Tampa -113 Yardage Diff L4 (31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL).
Tampa last in NFL at -73.5 vs closing number. L4 -17 vs close. Were +15.5 over wk4 and 5, before -27.5 in wk 6 (vs Balt 17-48). Bye wk 7, then last week -5 against close, with OT loss vs Minn. TB out FD 22-13, 23 rushes for 66 yds. Tampa +4.1 NET PR L4 vs season. Worst PR in league over season.
Mack Loss Huge:
First game for Browns without Center Mack: 30 rushes from 69 yards (John Greco moved over from RG, and Paul McQuistan, who started 14 games for Seattle and grabbed a Super Bowl ring LY, played RG)
Second game without Mack: 25 rushes for 39 yards (Nick McDonald, who only has four career starts, and last played in 2012, was signed to play center, with Greco being moved back to RG, and McQuistin to the bench)
First time since 1995 favored by more than a FG for a third straight game.
First time ever Browns favored by 5 points or more a third straight game (25 years of data)
Browns travel to Cincinnati on Thursday. Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards last week Cleveland defense: #29
Cleveland is EVEN L4 against closing number, post wk5 by posted a +18.5 vs close, and then -22 (@ jax). Last week +3.5 vs Oak. +1.68 NET PR L4 vs season.
Cle 3-1 L4, but played the 28[SUP]th[/SUP] ranked schedule. Combine week schedule w/ an EVEN number vs the closing number, team is UNDERPEFROMING VS THE SPEAD.
Summary:
Bad spot for Cleveland, team underperforming vs spread. Tampa game will be hard to get up for w/ Cincy on deck and recent competition being weak. Tampa off game they were expected to win (-2.5 favorite over Minn last week), so public down on TB. TAMPA A BET AT +7, assuming no drama this week.
Minn PK, 43.5 vs Wash (Open Minn -1 44)
WASH in unfamiliar waters
RG3 return: combination of rust and questions about being 100%, NO upgrade to Washington with return of RG3, more likely a downgrade. Team has had 3 different QB’s this season, no chance to build chemistry.
Even with below average quarterbacking this season, Washington’s WRs have performed exceptionally (1200 yards after catch; yards per completion #2 in NFL)
Washington passing (yards per attempt): #1
Washington: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential in league, drops to 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in L4.
Wash short week of Dallas win as 9 PT dog.
Wash 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] road game in 4 weeks.
Situation for Wash: Bad team (Wash) off a road win, and win ATS where they outperformed number by 10+, next game on the road, and team (Wash) is a pk to -1: ONLY 9 occurances since 1985: Team in Wash spot is 1-8 SU, 2-5-1 ATS. Only ONCE has a team in Wash’s spot been favored. Begs to ask, who the is Wash to be favored in this spot?
Wash +0.7 NET PR vs season L4. Wash -7 vs closing line L4. Improvement over -17.5 vs closing line first 4.
If Washington favored: Wash as favorite: 53-83-3 ATS
Wash offensive getting worse: O 11[SUP]th[/SUP] NFL L4, 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YTD
All three quarterbacks combined have thrown 45.5% of their passes within the 0-9 yard window, with just 12.5 attempts traveling 20 yards or more through the air. The receivers are expected to turn short passes into large gains through their feet; as Pierre Garcon did for his 70 yard touchdown in Week 8.
If Minny Stays favored
Would be the first time Minny is favored in over a calendar year
Minny as a favorite: 2-8 ATS streak
Washington as underdog: 5-12 ATS
Minny’s QB Play
Minny: 5 TD passes (least in NFL)
Vikings in last 4 weeks have yielded 20 sacks
Minny -28.5 mac L4. Two straight covers w/ mac +10.5 (at Buf, at TB). Minny +0.6 NET PR L4
Minny -13.50 yardage diff L4 (19[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL). YTD 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL.
Minny D 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YPG, but 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL L4 – Lead NFL in sacks w/ 17 over last 4, BUT sacked 20 times last 4 – worst in NFL.
Minny O 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL YPG, 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL L4
Min/Wash SUMMARY:
Minny has had difficulty scoring. Wash going to RG is going to have an adjustment period, given Minnys pass rush over last 4, time will be at a premium. Given the conservative nature of the Wash offensive, and the flat out inefficiency of Minny’s offense, large chunks of yards will be a premium. Both teams amongst the lead worse in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down efficiency and scoring efficiency. Favor Minny and under.
Phila -1.5 48.5 @ Hou
Phila overvalued by public.
ESPN.com ranks Philly as the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best team
My PR has them 7[SUP]th [/SUP] YTD, but -1.6 NET L4 vs season
Philly’s yardage differential is 15th in the league, and 17[SUP]th[/SUP] over last 4.
STILL PHILA with +22.5 MAC over L4, but outlier wk6 +27.5 vs NYG. Other 3: -2.5 (@ SF), +2.5 (vs STL), -5 (@ AZ).
Rams game could have been a loss, AZ game could have been a win. Bottom line, is that Eagles win games: Philly has won 12 of last 15 regular season games.
Compared to last season Philly has gained 11% LESS yards per offense snap in 2014. Is league catching up, or is it the offensive line injuries and the loss of D.Jax the top downfield threat? I believe it’s latter. Kelly too good a coach, and scheme isn’t complicated: Run sets up pass.
Eagles have scored seven TDs from their defense or special teams, while not allowing any.
Phila offense -12 turnovers last 4 and team net of -6 = worst in league over that span. Hou +2 over same time.
Eagles have yielded only 2 sacks their last 6 games (sacked total of 7 times this season – least in NFL)
(Philly) NFL away favorite off game as away underdog: 19-5-1 ATS streak
HOU:
Hou 4-4, w/ 21[SUP]st[/SUP] easiest schedule and 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in RPI rating.
Hou 4 wins come against clubs that have gone a combined 10-22 SU.
Hou not in Philly class.
Houston 20[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage differential , 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] over L4
Houston has given up 10 sacks combined the last two weeks. Phila 16 sacks L4 – 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL
Hou +6 mac L4, despite 1-3 SU. NET even PR L4.
Hou third in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 48.3 percent rate. The Eagles are fifth in offense, averaging 398.7 yards, but they’re last in the red zone. They score touchdowns at a rate of 34.8% rate
Summary:
If odds makers are correct with their number and we have a 1 possession game, I think it goes UNDER.
Jets @ KC -9 42
Huge Anti-Jets Sentiment
Jets have covered only ONE GAME this season – least in NFL
12 of last 13 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Last week’s loss to Buffalo was a crusher … Jets motivation is now certainly a question – but note that Rex Ryan has been an excellent motivator over the years.
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 38 turnovers
Vick had 3 turnovers in partial game vs. Buffalo
Vick has an awful 48.2 Passer Rating this season, and has been sacked seven times in only 63 drop-backs, with four fumbles. Coach Reid has deep knowledge of QB Vick.
Jets covered 8 of 10 as underdog by a TD or more
Jets FIT MAC play as they enter this game a -61.5 in their last 4 games, and a -73 overall. Jets -2.7 NET PR L4 vs Season number.
Jets yardage differential: -11 yards this season (near even, implying an average team)
Jets passing offense: #32
Jets passing (yards per attempt): #32
Jets scoring defense: #30
Jets defense has yielded highest QB rating in league
Jets have given up 22 TD passes this season – most in NFL
Jets have intercepted 1 pass this season – least in NFL
Jets have thrown 7 TD passes this season – second least in NFL
Jets have thrown 11 interceptions this season – second most in NFL
Jets rushing offense: #4
KC rushing offense: #3
KC:
Early line on this game (before last week’s games): KC -5.5
Most points KC favored by in any game since 2000
KC favored by over a TD: 21-1 SU (16-6 ATS)
KC: Alex Smith last 49 games as a starter: 35-13-1 SU
KC DC Bob Sutton was DC for Jets under Rex Ryan
KC rushing offense: #3
KC defense: #3
KC passing defense: #1
KC scoring defense: #3
KC: 5-2 ATS. +73.5 mac L4. +60.5 highest mac in the league. Throw 1[SUP]st[/SUP] game of season and KC mac is +85.5. Team has hit the ceiling. KC NET PR L4 is +4.3. Due for a subpar performance
SUMMARY:
JETS the clear play as you have one team that is severely UNDERRATED against the spread and one that is now overrated vs spread. Correction should occur. JETS +9 a play.
AZ +3 44.5 @ Dallas (open Dal -4, 45 – Romo injury)
Romo
If Romo were 100%, this line would be about right
but there’s a good chance he won’t be 100%
and there’s a small chance he won’t even play
Dallas as home favorite:
Dallas as home favorite: covered only 7 of last 28 games
Dallas’ strong rushing this season has obscured the fact that their defense may be NO BETTER than last year’s historically bad unit …
Opponent Completion %:
2013: 64.7 … 2014: 66.4
Opponent Yards Per Pass:
2013: 7.8 … 2014: 7.4
Opponent Yards Per Rush:
2013: 4.7 … 2014: 4.8
Sack % per opponent pass attempt:
2013 … 5.2% … 2014 … 3.4%
The points allowed have dropped because the offense has been controlling the ball more, allowing 57.6 plays per game to the opposition, down from 67.8 in 2013. But when the other side does snap the ball, the defense has not really been any better at all.
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (51-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Dallas – in midst of 5 home games out of 6 games
Tony Romo in November has won 24 of 29 games (SU)
Note that LB Justin Durant was lost for the season last week. Durant was Dallas’ best healthy linebacker. Highest PFF grade of current group.
Dal +7 mac L4, 2-2 ATS. +43.5 on season, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in NFL. Dal +1.8 NET PR L4 versus season.
AZ:
Arizona’s Impressive W/L Results
Arizona stats are not great
Arizona yardage differential: -361 yards (26[SUP]th[/SUP] in league), -104.5 L4 (31[SUP]st[/SUP] in league)
but last 16 games
Arizona is 13-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points)
Losing only 3 against the spread
#3 in the league have not allowed a 100 yard rusher this season
Return of Arizona DL C. Campbell is meaningful
Arizona’s Patrick Peterson left game in 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Quarter with a concussion. Expected to play this week.
Cards on road 42-55-4 ATS (since 2002)
Carson Palmer with TD passes of 75 and 80 yards last week
(Cardinals) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
Arizona: #25 offense
Arizona passing defense: #32 – AZ Def Diff L4 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in league (-429)
Arizona has thrown only 1 interception this season.
Arizona +9 turnovers (second best in NFL)
Arizona rush defense: #3
Dallas rushing offense: #1
AZ +2 mac L4. +22 mac in THREE games prior. Az -2.4 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY
Lean AZ and Dallas TT Under. Romo health a concern, and if Dallas cannot run the ball w/ Weeden in the game it’s lights out.
SF -9.5 43.5 vs STL (open 9.5 44)
Second meeting between teams in last 4 weeks.
STL +3.5 at home, now +9.5 at SF. 12 PT swing, when considering home field. SF won 31-17 IN STL.
SF Off a Loss and Bye
Coach Harbaugh has lost 13 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only four times.
Harbaugh with extra rest (bye, Thursday game, or first game of season): 10-3 ATS
Overall … 49ers have lost only 7 of last 23 games ATS
Possible Look ahead
San Fran plays at New Orleans next week
***OTHER
SF with Harbaugh: 37-21-5 ATS overall
San Fran Center Kilgore injured out. Rookie Marcus Martin will get his first start. Kilgore 11[SUP]th[/SUP] best center in NFL this season per PFF. Overall a +4.6 grade. Consider that Alex Mack is #4 at 6.9. Scott Wells (STL) has been worst center in NFL -11.6 grade.
Rookie Marcus Martin, 20, a third-round pick who hasn’t played this season because of a knee injury he sustained in the preseason, will have the first chance to replace Kilgore in the starting lineup.
Chris Cook (DB) placed on IR
SF L4 before bye-week -4 mac. -23.5 mac on season.
Rams Beat Up
Three members of the OL, Scott Wells, Jake Long and Roger Saffold, left and did not return last week. WR Brian Quick was lost, as was DE Williams Hayes, as well as Cody Davis and Rodney McLeod from the secondary. Saffold probable, Wells probable.
(Rams) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
Rams rush defense: #31
Rams scoring defense: #31
Rams defense has 6 sacks this season – least in NFL
STL -23.5 mac L4. -49.5 mac on season. STL +0.4 NET PR L4. STL 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] hardest schedule L4 (@Phi, vs SF, vs SEA, @ Kc).
SUMMARY:
Rams look to be undervalued. Better on the board. Pass.
Den -3 54.5 @ NE
37[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 38 that Denver has been favored
Broncos since start of last season: 21-5 SU (winning 20 times by a TD or more)
Pats home dog!
Biggest home underdog for Patriots since 2005
New England has won 41 of 44 regular season home games (SU)
As Underdog: Bill Belichick with Patriots: 39-21-1 ATS
Brady as home underdog in his career: 9-2 ATS
Tom Brady on passes 15 yards or more downfield:
Week 1 and 2: 12.3 QBR Since: 99 QBR
Rob Gronkowski not only played a good statistical game Sunday, but his physicality now seems back near 100%.
(Pats) NFL teams playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight home game, going for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER EFFECT ON MANNINGS BALL THAN BRADY’s
Patriots passing defense: #2
Pats +11 turnovers (best in NFL)
Pats +41.5 mac L4, includes -30 effort against Cincy. Pats +38 mac on season. NE +2.6 NET PR L4 vs season. Team is slightly overvalued.
DEN:
Denver off Thursday game (extra rest) In Manning’s career, off a Thursday game: 8-3 ATS (3-0 in Denver, covering by at least 14 points every game)
Manning excels with extra prep time.
Broncos THIRD game in TWO weeks. Travelling cross country for this one.
For example: Manning has covered 9 straight off a full bye.
Denver with Manning as a favorite 26-12 ATS.
Denver defense: #4
Denver rush defense: #1
Den #1 in NFL L4 Yardage Diff +184, #1 Def yards/game.
Den +41 mac L4 - +31.5 on season, have covered L4. DEN +2.2 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY
Why is Denver a 3 pt favorite? NE +3 and ML for me.
Oak +14 43 @ Sea (opened Sea -15 41.5)
Biggest favorite EVER for team with 4-3 record (data goes back 25 years)
Zero Win Teams add zeros to your winnings!
(Oakland) NFL winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (97-57-5 since 1992)
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962 (started that season 0-13)
Oakland has scored more than 14 points ONLY ONCE this season
Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards, but Raiders were down 23-6 until Oakland TD with 7 seconds left in game.
(Oakland) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
Oak -26.5 mac L4, but -6.5 mac L3 after bye week. Oak even NET PR L4 vs season.
SEA:
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-25-2) ; 2-1 ATS in 2014.
Seattle: 26-12-1 ATS overall last 39 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-11-1 ATS
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
Russell Wilson at QB: 19-2 SU at home (15-6 ATS)
Seattle laying over TD at home: 18-6-1 ATS (since 2005)
Seattle -23 mac L4, failed to cover in last 3. Sea -2.6 NET PR L4 vs season.
SUMMARY:
Line is inflated. +14 is an Oak line. Increase in total w/ decrease in line – favors dog.
Balt -2 47.5 @ Pitt (open pk 44)
First time since 1991 Steelers a home underdog for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] straight game
Pitt home underdog 8 times in regular season since 2000
Nature of this series
9 out of last 12 Pittsburgh/Baltimore games have been decided by 3-points or less
6 straight Ravens at Steelers (in Pitt) regular season matchups decided by exactly 3 points.
Only 3 of last 24 Pitt/Balt has produced more than 43 combined points
Pitt
Pittsburgh: Extra thin Corner after Ike Taylor injury
Since injury, Pittsburgh has faced:
Mike Glennon
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Last week, Andrew Luck threw for 400 yards with 3 TDs
Pitt 8[SUP]th[/SUP] over in Yardage Diff L4 (+61.50), drop from 5[SUP]th[/SUP] overall rating on season (58.75). 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in Def y/g on season (357.88), 17[SUP]th[/SUP] in L4 (363).
Steelers gained 639 yards of offense last week, Colts did have key DB injuries during game.
Steelers own DBs struggled. Big questions in Pitt secondary.
(Pitt) NFL teams playing 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight home game, going for 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
(Pitt) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
Pitt +9 mac L4. Have covered three of four in that stretch. Prior 4 games -9.5 mac –nice improvement.
Pitt -0.3 NET PR L4 vs season, despite covering three of four – makes you think it’s more the competition than Pitt figuring things out. L4 (@Jax (W) @Cle (W), Hou (W), Indy (W)). Pitt of highest mac of season +21.5
Ravens off loss
Ravens off loss: 23-5 the next game (straight-up)
2 instances this season … won by 20 and 31 points.
Baltimore’s 24 points given up last week most this season by Ravens. = new trend?
Baltimore scoring defense: #2
Ravens have given up 7 TD passes this season – least in NFL
CB Jimmy Smith OUTjoins Asa Jackson on the sidelines from that position.
Rotation is down to Lardarius Webb, still not back to form following a back injury; Dominique Franks, who re-signed on October 7 after being cut back in August; and Chykie Brown, who has been inactive the last two weeks - NOT GOOD.
Ravens: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in last 5
Baltimore +32 mac L4, +65 mac for season, sign that odds makers catching up. Ravens -2.9 NET PR L4 vs season. Moreover reduced MAC came against 2 teams at the bottom of the league (TB and ATL – Balt racked up +42.5 mac vs those two teams, -10.5 mac against Indy and Cincy).
SUMMARY:
It would appear that the Steelers are in position to outperform the number. Baltimore trending down, and now a favorite in Pitt? I think value lies with Pitt.
Be back with plays. Comments welcome. :shake:
