Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Another week at under .500, this time 7-8. Brings the season total to 51-59-4. It's been a rough go, but hey, we occasionally get some right here and there, right? Could have been worse, I guess. It's gonna be a long slog to get back to even, but it starts.......NOW!

If I hadn't sworn off writing up Illinois games, I would probably be on Washington this week. The Huskies are currently favored by about 4.5. Washington didn't look great last week in their loss at Michigan, but they never do on the road. They're Jekyl and Hyde depending on where they're playing, and they're back home this week, so you can expect a 180 degree about face from them. Washington is going to have major edges when they're on offense, especially in the passing game and on third down. The Illini are coming off a bye, but that's mitigated a bit by the extensive travel and extremely tough environment of Husky Stadium. I think Altmyer might have some success against the Washington defense, and the Huskies are also banged up there but he'll need to play at about his 99 percentile to trade scores with Washington. Also, Ryan Walters is the DC at Washington. He of course was DC at Illinois before he took the head coaching job at Purdue, and in head to head games against Bielema and his staff, Purdue beat the spread by 20+ points both years. Washington is an extremely difficult place to play. I think it's a tough ask for the Illini here.

Let's see what happens this week.

Cal +6 LOSS
Wake Forest +3 WIN
Indiana -25 WIN
Eastern Michigan +12 WIN
Northwestern +7.5 WIN
Kansas State +3.5 WIN
Arkansas -2.5 LOSS
Fresno State +3.5 LOSS
NC State +6.5 LOSS
Florida Atlantic +14 WIN
Ball State +6 LOSS
BYU +2.5 WIN
South Carolina +11.5 WIN
Michigan -14 LOSS
Kentucky +8.5 LOSS

8-7

Friday:

1. Cal +6 @Virginia Tech(BOL) : After a nice 3-0 start, Cal has plummeted in the eyes of many, but they're still sitting here at 5-2 for the season. Their two losses were a bit ugly, but in those two losses(at San Diego State and home against Duke) they were -7 in turnovers. They also looked very pedestrian last week on Friday night against the previously moribund North Carolina Tar Heels, but eeked out a victory in that one. Virginia Tech comes into this one off a bye, but they haven't beaten an FBS team at home this year, including getting run out of their own stadium by Old Dominion, who apparently can't stop a nosebleed on defense if you watched them play JMU last week and getting thoroughly dominated by Wake Forest. Now they're a 6 point favorite against a Cal team that almost always shows up as a road dog? Cal has a cross country trip here, but under Wilcox they are 7-1 ATS the 8 times they've traveled east of the Mississippi during his tenure. Wilcox is in his element here. Cal has some guys banged up, but they have their primary skill guys. I actually can't see either of these teams running away from the other, but if one of them does, VT has made a bit of a habit of playing like dogshit at home this year. Cal under Wilcox is an old standby as a rad dog, so I'm not going to give up on them here.

Cal absolutely could not stop VT's running game. Apparently the concept of tackling a 240 pound quarterback is impossible, a complete mind-bender. I guess every other team that has played Virginia Tech over the past 2-3 years has just thrown up their hands when trying to deal with Kyron Drones. Oh wait, you're saying that they haven't ??? Overtime losers are tough, especially when you're getting up to 6, but Cal had no business covering that game. I'm still trying to figure out what the refs were calling on the late roughing the passer call on VT that allowed Cal to even tie it in the first place.
 
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2. @Wake Forest +3 v SMU(BOL): SMU is coming off a very nice win at Clemson, but they pulled that off against a Clemson team without it's starting QB and haunted by some terrible vibes. Now they have to hit the road back East again and play a Wake team off a bye and who has been on a roll. You have to take your hat off to Jake Dickert. He had a bunch of hard nosed defenses during his tenure at Wazzou, and now in his first year in Winston Salem, he took a defense that couldn't withstand a gentle summer breeze last year and turned them into the 12th ranked D in yards per play against. SMU's strength offensively is in the passing game, but that's Wake's forte, holding opponents to only 5 yards per pass attempt. DeShaun Purdie subbed in for Robby Ashford last week and the Deacs didn't have any problems offensively. I'm not sure if Ashford will be back, but I won't cry a river if he isn't because he's turnover prone while Purdie has not been. Demond Claiborne looks to be healthy now as he ran all over Oregon State last week, and that's good, because he's Wake's most explosive player. I think this is a tough spot for SMU, catching Wake off a bye and hitting the road for the second straight week off a big win. Also, there's something not quite right about SMU this year as opposed to last year. Wake is very live in this one in my opinion.

Wake's defense is absolutely legit. It didn't matter to my spread bet, but I was glad that last FG went through for the Deacs. They outgained SMU, had a 60%+ win expectancy and were getting 3 (3.5 by kick) so it was the right side.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. @Wake Forest +3 v SMU(BOL): SMU is coming off a very nice win at Clemson, but they pulled that off against a Clemson team without it's starting QB and haunted by some terrible vibes. Now they have to hit the road back East again and play a Wake team off a bye and who has been on a roll. You have to take your hat off to Jake Dickert. He had a bunch of hard nosed defenses during his tenure at Wazzou, and now in his first year in Winston Salem, he took a defense that couldn't withstand a gentle summer breeze last year and turned them into the 12th ranked D in yards per play against. SMU's strength offensively is in the passing game, but that's Wake's forte, holding opponents to only 5 yards per pass attempt. DeShaun Purdie subbed in for Robby Ashford last week and the Deacs didn't have any problems offensively. I'm not sure if Ashford will be back, but I won't cry a river if he isn't because he's turnover prone while Purdie has not been. Demond Claiborne looks to be healthy now as he ran all over Oregon State last week, and that's good, because he's Wake's most explosive player. I think this is a tough spot for SMU, catching Wake off a bye and hitting the road for the second straight week off a big win. Also, there's something not quite right about SMU this year as opposed to last year. Wake is very live in this one in my opinion.
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And SMU has Miami up next
 
3. @Indiana -25 v UCLA (BOL) : Last week I backed the Hoosiers as a 27 point favorite against Michigan State in a similar spot. Curt Cignetti kicked a field goal with about 4 minutes left to get it to 28 for the cover, but then Jonathan Smith appeared to have just as much desire to beat the spread, so he kicked a long field goal in the final minute to get the score back down to 38-13 and cost us the cover. I have a feeling Cignetti did not like that one bit. He may have even borrowed from another Indiana coach from the past and said "I had to go a full week living with the fact that we didn't cover against Michigan State, and you will NOT put me in that fuckin position again!!!!" It was a fluke that the Hoosiers didn't cover that game last week considering they scored a TD on their first 5 possessions of the game, but ended up only having 7 drives the whole game because somehow Michigan State was able to bleed clock with long drives. I'm sure Cignetti is seething about it(at least I hope so because I was) and the Hoosiers are in a dominant spot in this game just as much as they were last week. UCLA certainly has turned things around and I've been able to cash a couple tickets on them along the way, but I think things are going to come down with a thud for them this week. Indiana is significantly better in just about every phase of the game and every head to head facet that matters. UCLA has run the ball very well under the new scheme employed by Jerry Neuheisel, but teams are starting to catch up to them, or have caught up to them as more and more of their stuff gets on tape. Other than 2 busted runs by Anthony Frias last week, UCLA only averaged 4.76 yards per play. Now they're playing a much better defense with another week of film who is motivated for margin in a terrible spot where they have to deal with the dreaded 9AM body clock game. This one is shaping up to be a 2024 style blowout for the Hoosiers.

This went about like I thought. Didn't seem likely that Cignetti would allow a blown cover to happen again, and it didn't.
 
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4. @Eastern Michigan +12 v Ohio(BR): Eastern Michigan has been bad on defense, but that goes for pretty much everyone in the MAC, the Ohio Bobcats included. This is going to be a lot of points for the Bobs to cover if they have a hard time getting off he field and I think they will against this Eagle offense which at times has been able to move the ball extremely well. Noah Kim has been totally acceptable all year, but he stepped up last week on the road for a 300+ yard performance against a much better defense in Miami(OH) in game in which the Eagles put up 30 points. The last time Ohio went on the road(the only time in conference) they lost outright to a Ball State team that's just about as bad defensively and significantly worse offensively than the Eagles are. EMU has struggled this year, but Chris Creighton remains a great bet as a dog. I like the Eagles chances of keeping this close in Ypsilanti and I wouldn't rule out a shot at the outright if they get some breaks early.

EMU started fast, scoring TDs on 70+ yard drives the first two times they had the ball, then had eight straight possessions of zilch until they punched one in when it counted. A back door cover!
 
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5. Northwestern +7.5 v Nebraska(BR): On paper, this doesn't look like a great Northwestern team, and it's not, but last week on paper, Minnesota looked even worse than Northwestern does now and they ran the Cornhuskers out of Minneapolis. In fact, coming into that game, Minnesota was averaging 3.3 yards per carry, good for 125th in the country and then proceeded to steamroll Nebraska to the tune of 196 yards on 35 carries. This was a week after the Gophers managed only 30 yards on 18 carries against the vaunted Purdue defense on the same field. Now Northwestern comes in, and the Wildcats have run extremely well, especially lately with both Joseph Himon and Calb Komolafe able to sustain drives with hard running. Also, Preston Stone has looked a lot better with the emergence of wide receiver Griffin Wilde. I do expect the Huskers to bounce back a bit on offense, but their 107th ranked run offense isn't equipped to take advantage of Northwestern's main issue on defense, which is against the run. Nebraska's strengths are in the pass game on both sides of the ball, but Northwestern isn't likely to be trying to throw and defensively, they've been good against the pass, ranking 44th in yards per pass attempt against. If Northwestern can play their game and keep things clean, this is another one that might get hairy for the Huskers.

Even though this one covered by half a point, this one didn't have more chance of losing for almost the entire second half. Cats were able to run on Nebraska as we suspected and outgained them on the day,
 
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Good luck and thanks for the picks as usual. I heard the new interm Coach at V Tech (Montgomery) changed everything after the firing of Pry. He changed the workouts, the way they practice, and even the times when they practice. It is like a brand-new team, at least that is what the coach is preaching. Montgomery was a solid coach at Tulsa. Maybe V. Tech comes out punching tonight? The line continues to climb. Someone is putting money on V Tech.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Good luck and thanks for the picks as usual. I heard the new interm Coach at V Tech (Montgomery) changed everything after the firing of Pry. He changed the workouts, the way they practice, and even the times when they practice. It is like a brand-new team, at least that is what the coach is preaching. Montgomery was a solid coach at Tulsa. Maybe V. Tech comes out punching tonight? The line continues to climb. Someone is putting money on V Tech.
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I know. That line keeps going up. I just think 6 is a lot of points for VT to beat anyone by, even if they play well. As you mention, Montgomery's influence is probably the reason the line is where it's at. If there weren't changes under Montgomery, we'd probably have to lay almost a TD with Cal here. The NC State game was a nice about face for the Hokies, but the two games after that (Wake especially) tell us where they're at. There's always a chance for variance, but if Cal and VT both play their representative games, this game is a tossup IMO.
 
6. Kansas State +3.5 @Kansas(BR) : These teams are pretty evenly matched, but it's hard to not take the Wildcats here given how much they've dominated this series. K State has won 16 straight in the series and covered 11 of the 16. K State had a terrible start to the season but has righted the ship a bit under Kleiman, most recently a nice win over TCU at home a couple weeks ago. Kansas has the worst rush defense in the Big 12 and one of the worst in the country, so K State will be able to do what the ultimately want to do, regardless of what running back is out there. Despite the lopsided results of this series in recent years, this is always a hotly contested game and there's no way K State doesn't give a huge effort here. I just have a hard time seeing this getting away from the Wildcats unless they get hit with a bunch of turnovers, and they've been pretty buttoned up lately. Kansas doesn't have the vibe they had at this time last year when they took off and started beating good teams. Getting more than a field goal is especially valuable in this one.

Right side here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Another week at under .500, this time 7-8. Brings the season total to 51-59-4. It's been a rough go, but hey, we occasionally get some right here and there, right? Could have been worse, I guess. It's gonna be a long slog to get back to even, but it starts.......NOW!

If I hadn't sworn off writing up Illinois games, I would probably be on Washington this week. The Huskies are currently favored by about 4.5. Washington didn't look great last week in their loss at Michigan, but they never do on the road. They're Jekyl and Hyde depending on where they're playing, and they're back home this week, so you can expect a 180 degree about face from them. Washington is going to have major edges when they're on offense, especially in the passing game and on third down. The Illini are coming off a bye, but that's mitigated a bit by the extensive travel and extremely tough environment of Husky Stadium. I think Altmyer might have some success against the Washington defense, and the Huskies are also banged up there but he'll need to play at about his 99 percentile to trade scores with Washington. Also, Ryan Walters is the DC at Washington. He of course was DC at Illinois before he took the head coaching job at Purdue, and in head to head games against Bielema and his staff, Purdue beat the spread by 20+ points both years. Washington is an extremely difficult place to play. I think it's a tough ask for the Illini here.

Let's see what happens this week.

Friday:

1. Cal +6 @Virginia Tech(BOL) : After a nice 3-0 start, Cal has plummeted in the eyes of many, but they're still sitting here at 5-2 for the season. Their two losses were a bit ugly, but in those two losses(at San Diego State and home against Duke) they were -7 in turnovers. They also looked very pedestrian last week on Friday night against the previously moribund North Carolina Tar Heels, but eeked out a victory in that one. Virginia Tech comes into this one off a bye, but they haven't beaten an FBS team at home this year, including getting run out of their own stadium by Old Dominion, who apparently can't stop a nosebleed on defense if you watched them play JMU last week and getting thoroughly dominated by Wake Forest. Now they're a 6 point favorite against a Cal team that almost always shows up as a road dog? Cal has a cross country trip here, but under Wilcox they are 7-1 ATS the 8 times they've traveled east of the Mississippi during his tenure. Wilcox is in his element here. Cal has some guys banged up, but they have their primary skill guys. I actually can't see either of these teams running away from the other, but if one of them does, VT has made a bit of a habit of playing like dogshit at home this year. Cal under Wilcox is an old standby as a rad dog, so I'm not going to give up on them here.
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Everyone on this site appreciates what you do. It would not be the same without you here. Much graitude sir.

I do not know how you do it all.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Indiana -25 v UCLA (BOL) : Last week I backed the Hoosiers as a 27 point favorite against Michigan State in a similar spot. Curt Cignetti kicked a field goal with about 4 minutes left to get it to 28 for the cover, but then Jonathan Smith appeared to have just as much desire to beat the spread, so he kicked a long field goal in the final minute to get the score back down to 38-13 and cost us the cover. I have a feeling Cignetti did not like that one bit. He may have even borrowed from another Indiana coach from the past and said "I had to go a full week living with the fact that we didn't cover against Michigan State, and you will NOT put me in that fuckin position again!!!!" It was a fluke that the Hoosiers didn't cover that game last week considering they scored a TD on their first 5 possessions of the game, but ended up only having 7 drives the whole game because somehow Michigan State was able to bleed clock with long drives. I'm sure Cignetti is seething about it(at least I hope so because I was) and the Hoosiers are in a dominant spot in this game just as much as they were last week. UCLA certainly has turned things around and I've been able to cash a couple tickets on them along the way, but I think things are going to come down with a thud for them this week. Indiana is significantly better in just about every phase of the game and every head to head facet that matters. UCLA has run the ball very well under the new scheme employed by Jerry Neuheisel, but teams are starting to catch up to them, or have caught up to them as more and more of their stuff gets on tape. Other than 2 busted runs by Anthony Frias last week, UCLA only averaged 4.76 yards per play. Now they're playing a much better defense with another week of film who is motivated for margin in a terrible spot where they have to deal with the dreaded 9AM body clock game. This one is shaping up to be a 2024 style blowout for the Hoosiers.
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I am thinking about Indiana - 14.5 1H. Any thoughts? No problem if you're busy or have no thoughts on the subject
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Kansas State +3.5 @Kansas(BR) : These teams are pretty evenly matched, but it's hard to not take the Wildcats here given how much they've dominated this series. K State has won 16 straight in the series and covered 11 of the 16. K State had a terrible start to the season but has righted the ship a bit under Kleiman, most recently a nice win over TCU at home a couple weeks ago. Kansas has the worst rush defense in the Big 12 and one of the worst in the country, so K State will be able to do what the ultimately want to do, regardless of what running back is out there. Despite the lopsided results of this series in recent years, this is always a hotly contested game and there's no way K State doesn't give a huge effort here. I just have a hard time seeing this getting away from the Wildcats unless they get hit with a bunch of turnovers, and they've been pretty buttoned up lately. Kansas doesn't have the vibe they had at this time last year when they took off and started beating good teams. Getting more than a field goal is especially valuable in this one.
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It can be the kiss of death, but first wager I made this week at +3
 
BOL this week, Br@ss! I haven't been on top of things in your thread the past 2 weekends, so I'll fall back on my superstitious nature to take the blame myself for your uncharacteristic recent results. Ha!
I sense a big- time bounce back week very soon. Hoping for this week, of course. Karma should deliver that, due to the high value you bring here each week.
I guess I'm just reiterating the sentiment expressed by Bones above.
Go get 'em!
 
bones said:
I am thinking about Indiana - 14.5 1H. Any thoughts? No problem if you're busy or have no thoughts on the subject
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I typically don't get involved in anything but full sides Bones because I tend to outsmart myself in those situations. Having said that, I can see that as a good play because I think Indiana will get out to a good start here. Not a big fan of that hook but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 21-0 start to that game.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
BOL this week, Br@ss! I haven't been on top of things in your thread the past 2 weekends, so I'll fall back on my superstitious nature to take the blame myself for your uncharacteristic recent results. Ha!
I sense a big- time bounce back week very soon. Hoping for this week, of course. Karma should deliver that, due to the high value you bring here each week.
I guess I'm just reiterating the sentiment expressed by Bones above.
Go get 'em!
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Good old SPRD. I can always count on you my man. Don't be a stranger!
 
Gonna have to rapid fire these everyone. I'm involved in a youth retreat at my parish and it's my first time doing it, so it took more prep time than I anticipated.
 
7. @Arkansas -2.5 v Auburn (BOL) : Could this one fall at 1? absolutely! Having said that, I think Auburn is just a broken team right now and they may have given up on their coach. What's happened to them over the past few weeks has been a travesty, and I am not exaggerating on that. They banned the ref of the Georgia game for life from calling SEC games and they had almost every call go against them last week as well. This was after they had a TD taken from them and an illegal play for a TD not called against Oklahoma. Another thing going against them is that they cannot move the ball on offense under Jackson Arnold. Defensively, they are great, especially against the run but they can hold up for only so long, and Arkansas has an offense that moves the ball and scores on pretty much everyone. Both Washington and Taylen Green have been unstoppable, and I think this is the week the Hogs finally pull of a win against a totally snakebit team.

Give Auburn credit. That rush D is awesome. They completely shut down Mike Washington and made Taylen Green beat them and he couldn't. I still like Arkansas mindset going forward. If they face average run defenses they'll score all day. Also, Auburn making the change to Ashton Daniels could make a big difference. He's not great, but Arnold was killing them. Auburn should have perhaps 3 more wins than they do. As long as they can afford the voodoo magic (or blatant SEC officiating mistakes?), they can hang with anyone.
 
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8. @Fresno State +3.5(-120) v San Diego State (BOL): BOL is offering 3.5 at -120 so I took it. This is a bit of a feel play. Fresno hasn't been great this year, but they're 5-2 and haven't lost at home. San Diego State has looked significantly better than just about everyone would have thought, but that's also mostly been at home. Their first two road games were pretty terrible performances. They won a taffy pull at NIU 6-3 and were dominated by Wazzou in a 36-13 game prior to that. Last week in Reno they got a punt return TD followed by a tipped pass that was picked off in the end zone and the game with Nevada was over before they even had to run an offensive play. Now they go back on the road where I think things aren't going to be as easy for them this week. The Aztecs look great on defense on paper, but they've played the #133 schedule, and not surprisingly there's not a competent offense among their opponents so far. Fresno is coming off a bye with the new staff, I just like the way this sets up for the Bulldogs and I think SDSU is due for a clunker.

Weak play because SDSU has proven that they are not to be trifled with. This was a feel play that never had a chance.
 
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9. @NC State +6.5 @Pittsburgh (BR): Lots of injuries for Pitt, including their top 2 linebackers and their left tackle. Pitt burned me a couple weeks ago because I still thought Florida State was a non-fraud, but alas, the freshman QB made some plays and I lost. The Pitt offense, however did not look good last week at home against Syracuse, garnering only 260 yards, and Heintschel was confused all day. NC State was off last week so they got a chance to watch and I'm sure Doeren was taking notes. CJ Bailey has been good this year and NC State has played a better schedule than the Panthers. I think Bailey will have success against the banged up Pitt defense so I'll take those points here.

Major apologies here. There is zero logic in this write up. 100% based on silly assumptions. I will not back this non-entity of a team again. It was a gutless defensive performance. Two of my worst calls of the year were this one and that spineless, lily-livered effort they put forth at home against VT a few weeks ago. They are a non-team. They actually don't exist.
 
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10 Florida Atlantic +14 @Navy (BOL) : Navy has played the weakest schedule in FBS, weaker than everyone in CUSA, everyone in the MAC, everyone period. Despite that, they are still ranked only 113th in yards per pass attempt against. FAU does nothing but throw, and I suspect Veltkamp will hit the 300 yard mark like he's done 4 other times this year. It's difficult for anyone to blow out a service academy team, but it's also hard for those service academies to blow anyone else out either. FAU hasn't been bad on defense, only getting gashed by the top 2 teams in the conference, USF and Memphis. Everyone else, they've held their own. I think FAU will have too much success throwing the ball in this one for Navy to run and hide as the clock ticks down.

FAU had some pretty terrible turnover luck throughout this game, but their luck changed late with the back door. 2 late TDs got us a cover(the second after a successful onsides kick), but they were able to throw on Navy all day, even with the backup QB. Naby ran all over the Owls though. I'll take it.
 
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11. Ball State +6 @Northern Illinois (BOL) : I'll keep this simple. NIU is 2-14-1 as a home favorite since 2022. Their offense is terrible an cannot throw the ball to save their lives. Ball State isn't great, but they've shown some competence, beating Ohio and coming in with a 3-4 record. NIU has found a myriad of ways to lose as a home favorite, so I'll Take a shot that they keep on truckin in that regard.

Well, Northern is really starting to piss me off. What's up with this getting blown out as a road dog and then covering as a home favorite bullshit? C'mon Hammock! Get your shit together and know your roles.
 
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12. BYU +2.5 @Iowa State (BOL) : In the fundamental handicap, BYU wins out in this handicap. Their defense is absolutely legit, and when the Cougs are on offense, they rate as the better side in pretty much every category. The problem for them in this one is the spot. ISU is coming off a bye while BYU had to play in the Holy War against Utah. Throwing out the spot, BYU should be about a 4 point favorite based on this years results, so there is definitely a spot tax that's being worked in by the oddsmakers. Every which way but loose I can't make a case for Iowa State to be favored here. I'm going to side with a very resourceful side who has the better defense and has proven their mettle time and again over the past 2 years. We should also remember that ISU's best defender by far, DL Dom Orange is out, so BYU might be more likely than not to be able to run it effectively with LJ Shelton.

BYU just keeps doing what they're doing. They are a team that finds ways to win, even if they are outplayed, which is kind of what happened here. BYU under Sitake is tough as nails. Down 24-10 in a tough environment and they come back. Pick 6 put the game away but the Cougars had outscored Iowa State 24-3 since late in the 1st half at that point.
 
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13. @South Carolina +11.5 v Alabama (BR) : Like many, I am seduced by the results of Alabama the last 4 times they were a double digit road favorite. 0-4 straight up. Clearly the South Carolina offense has been trash lately, but they are now facing a defense that doesn't really pressure the QB, so Sellers could get back to being comfortable back there. I think this is a now or never game that will bring the best out of the Gamecocks, and they are overdue for an inspired effort. Many on this Gamecock squad were on the field when Bama barely escaped with a win in Tuscaloosa last year, so they know they can play with the Tide. This looks like too many points to me.

This one was never really in doubt, even though Bama got kind of a weird fluke pick 6 early in the game. Give Bama credit though. It was a pretty mediocre effort but they still found a way to win. Just now getting to this one and I haven't looked at any social media, but I assume SC let Bernard score on that late TD?
 
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14, Michigan -14 @Michigan State (BOL) : As I mentioned earlier, Michigan State gave up TDs on the first 5 drives that Indiana embarked on last week. Michigan has struggled at times on offense this year, but only really against good defenses, and on the road. I realize this game is on the road, but it's just down the road a piece for the Wolverines, and it's an NBC night game. If MSU was going to sneak up on Michigan, they won't be able to do it in this atmosphere in front of that many eyeballs. Believe it or not, this Michigan offense ranks 16th in overall yards per play, and 5th in yards per carry. They are stout defensively, and although Aidan Chiles looked better last week, I'm skeptical that he can change the fortunes of the Spartans and avoid the boneheaded plays that have gotten him in trouble in the past. How bad has Michigan State been at home under Smith? How about 1-10 ATS? Is that bad enough for ya? I think Michigan is turning the corner a bit and will be motivated to handle the Spartans here.

Painful one here. I thought I was about to get my first ever front door cover, where the favorite is clearly trying to run out the clock and a dude busts a long one. It's happened against me probably a couple dozen times and I am totally unaware of any time that I've gotten one of those. Well, when Jordan Marshall broke that long one, I thought I finally had a real life front door cover. Until the MSU backup connected on a 20+ yard pass with 7 seconds left to cover.

Hey Jonathan Smith! Where the fuck was the late FG this week? You were in FG range buddy! For some reason you wanted the TD this week, the FG wouldn't suffice. We continue to search for the first front door.
 
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15 @Kentucky +8.5 v Tennessee (BOL) : Tennessee already should have lost to Arkansas at home, and Mississippi State on the road, and ow they play the third of the SEC's version of bottom feeders in the Kentucky Wildcats. Defensively, Tennessee has only played one soli game, and that was against East Tennessee State. Everybody else, including UAB and Syracuse, moved the ball on them. Kentucky played one possession games at home with Ole Miss and Texas, and there's no doubt Cutter Boley is getting better, as the Kentucky offense put up 395 yards last week against one of the best defenses in the country, Texas. I think Boley can move the ball on Tennessee, and the Vols might be a bit hung over after that 99 yard INT return that totally flipped the game at Alabama. Kentucky has proven they can challenge better teams at home, and I think Joey Aguilar has a long history of debilitating turnovers in his past. Cats can definitely keep it close here.

Boley looked really good again, but Kentucky's defense was so helpless it didn't matter. If you would've told me the Cats would put up 34 points and 476 yards, I would have doubled down on my bet. The only problem was that Tennessee averaged 15 yards PER PASS ATTEMPT!!. Yikes.
 
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I think that's going to be it. Not sure how much I'll be able to jump back in the thread, but let me know if anyone has anything I can help with. BOL this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Friday:

1. Cal +6 @Virginia Tech(BOL) : After a nice 3-0 start, Cal has plummeted in the eyes of many, but they're still sitting here at 5-2 for the season. Their two losses were a bit ugly, but in those two losses(at San Diego State and home against Duke) they were -7 in turnovers. They also looked very pedestrian last week on Friday night against the previously moribund North Carolina Tar Heels, but eeked out a victory in that one. Virginia Tech comes into this one off a bye, but they haven't beaten an FBS team at home this year, including getting run out of their own stadium by Old Dominion, who apparently can't stop a nosebleed on defense if you watched them play JMU last week and getting thoroughly dominated by Wake Forest. Now they're a 6 point favorite against a Cal team that almost always shows up as a road dog? Cal has a cross country trip here, but under Wilcox they are 7-1 ATS the 8 times they've traveled east of the Mississippi during his tenure. Wilcox is in his element here. Cal has some guys banged up, but they have their primary skill guys. I actually can't see either of these teams running away from the other, but if one of them does, VT has made a bit of a habit of playing like dogshit at home this year. Cal under Wilcox is an old standby as a rad dog, so I'm not going to give up on them here.
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Tough beat. The announcers put the hex on us when they kept going on about the reliability of the VaTech kicker at the end of the game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14, Michigan -14 @Michigan State (BOL) : As I mentioned earlier, Michigan State gave up TDs on the first 5 drives that Indiana embarked on last week. Michigan has struggled at times on offense this year, but only really against good defenses, and on the road. I realize this game is on the road, but it's just down the road a piece for the Wolverines, and it's an NBC night game. If MSU was going to sneak up on Michigan, they won't be able to do it in this atmosphere in front of that many eyeballs. Believe it or not, this Michigan offense ranks 16th in overall yards per play, and 5th in yards per carry. They are stout defensively, and although Aidan Chiles looked better last week, I'm skeptical that he can change the fortunes of the Spartans and avoid the boneheaded plays that have gotten him in trouble in the past. How bad has Michigan State been at home under Smith? How about 1-10 ATS? Is that bad enough for ya? I think Michigan is turning the corner a bit and will be motivated to handle the Spartans here.
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I like it
 
Have not caught the recaps yet, but how we covered FAU was a miracle and the Arkansas loss was brutal...if I did not know better I would think Green is involved in the gambling scandal
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. @NC State +6.5 @Pittsburgh (BR):

Major apologies here. There is zero logic in this write up. 100% based on silly assumptions. I will not back this non-entity of a team again. It was a gutless defensive performance. Two of my worst calls of the year were this one and that spineless, lily-livered effort they put forth at home against VT a few weeks ago. They are a non-team. They actually don't exist.
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I took Ga. Tech -6 at -120 first thing this a.m.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Wake Forest +3 v SMU(BOL): SMU is coming off a very nice win at Clemson, but they pulled that off against a Clemson team without it's starting QB and haunted by some terrible vibes. Now they have to hit the road back East again and play a Wake team off a bye and who has been on a roll. You have to take your hat off to Jake Dickert. He had a bunch of hard nosed defenses during his tenure at Wazzou, and now in his first year in Winston Salem, he took a defense that couldn't withstand a gentle summer breeze last year and turned them into the 12th ranked D in yards per play against. SMU's strength offensively is in the passing game, but that's Wake's forte, holding opponents to only 5 yards per pass attempt. DeShaun Purdie subbed in for Robby Ashford last week and the Deacs didn't have any problems offensively. I'm not sure if Ashford will be back, but I won't cry a river if he isn't because he's turnover prone while Purdie has not been. Demond Claiborne looks to be healthy now as he ran all over Oregon State last week, and that's good, because he's Wake's most explosive player. I think this is a tough spot for SMU, catching Wake off a bye and hitting the road for the second straight week off a big win. Also, there's something not quite right about SMU this year as opposed to last year. Wake is very live in this one in my opinion.

Wake's defense is absolutely legit. It didn't matter to my spread bet, but I was glad that last FG went through for the Deacs. They outgained SMU, had a 60%+ win expectancy and were getting 3 (3.5 by kick) so it was the right side.
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I watched this whole game and had the Deacs with you. It was pretty wild, series of turnovers in the span of 60 seconds like I’ve never seen with 2 times WF fumbling it over to SMU on the 5 yard line whilst trying to punch it in.
I was glad to see ‘em win too. 1st conference game loss for the Ponies since joining the ACC.
Didn’t like the alternative blue Stang on the helmet personally


Roll em next week!
 
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