Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Had some horrific travel issues this week so I am still on the road, but I have some time this morning, so we'll get started. 9-3 last week to bring the overall total to 57-45 and some pushes (.5588). Hopefully some momentum happens, but I have not been one to gather additional prosperity after a good week over the years.

I'm already sick of the Michigan stuff, so you won't hear me comment on that. Fast forward button is primed for that.


Penn State -32 LOSS
Kansas +10 WIN
Kansas State -17 WIN
NC State +9.5 WIN
Michigan State +7 LOSS
Duke +6 LOSS
Purdue +2 LOSS
Utah +7 LOSS
Mississippi State +6.5 LOSS
Cal +10.5 WIN
Iowa State -3 WIN
Arkansas State +1.5 WIN
Troy -6.5 WIN
Colorado State +14.5 LOSS
Wisconsin +14.5 WIN
Arizona State +5.5 WIN
Arizona +3 WIN

10-7


1. @Penn State -32 v Indiana: I's loath to lay points like this, but classic bully James Franklin is addicted to kicking sand in the faces of weaklings, and I don't think he'll miss a chance to do it this week off that effort at Ohio State. The Penn State defense is a complete mismatch for Indiana's offense, and Franklin will do everything in his power, even if it means faking kneel downs, to cover here. Penn State is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite over the past 3 years, and Indiana is now 2-11 ATS on the road in that same span. No sense in expecting any bucking of this freight train of a 2 headed trend.

Upon reflection, this one was a bad call. Someone pointed out below that Franklin was terrible after a loss, and I should have remembered that. He's really good ATS after a win too, but the loss trend is significant. I was too reliant on Penn State's recent ATS success and Tom Ace's terrible record as a dog recently. Laying that much seldom works out, especially with a team so limited on offense. It's a wonder they scored as much as they did. The muffed punt by Indiana in the first half was huge.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @Kansas +10(-120) v Oklahoma: 10 has been available all week, but if you want it now you'll have to buy it up at -120 for the most part. It looks like Jalon Daniels is still out, but Jason Bean has played QB for the Jayhawks against the Sooners the past 2 years and he directed them to 42 in Norman last year, so I'm sure he'll be comfortable going against this Sooner defense, especially in Lawrence off a bye. Other than the Texas game, there hasn't been much to be excited about from a Sooner perspective as it relates to who else they've beaten. I've talked about the SMU, Cincinnati, etc matchups, and they had another sleepy game last week at home against UCF, which they frankly were lucky to escape with a win. Defensively they looked confused and got burned on a couple misdirection/tricky plays that Plumlee was able to pull off. The last team you want to face when you're vulnerable to that kind of thing is Kansas with two weeks to prepare. There's no doubt that OU will move he ball and score on the KU defense, but again, Leipold will have time to get things ready, and if we can get some open possessions from the Sooners, a missed FG here and there(which they appear to be susceptible to) that should keep the Jayhawks close and in the neighborhood for an outright. Sooner RB Tawee Walker will be back this week, so they'll probably look better on the ground, but they have struggled running the ball overall lately. Huge game for the Kansas program here, I think this might be too many points, and Oklahoma appears ripe to get knocked off, especially when a lot of people are just assuming they'll run the table into a rematch with Texas.


Great effort by the Jayhawks. I was convinced Bean would fuck up the last drive but he made some nice throws. Kansas won that game with a severely subpar passing game from Bean. Walker coming back was a huge boost for Oklahoma.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Kansas State -17 v Houston: I'm actually going to be on a few sizable favorites this week. It's never ideal, but this one I think might be decided by halftime. Houston had their last gasp last week, making a 21 point comeback after visiting Texas had checked out only to lose 31-24 late. The Cougs are now 3-4 without much of anything to play for and must now gear up for a trip to Manhattan to play a K State team that is on a roll after a move to a 2 QB system with Will Howard and top recruit Avery Johnson, who has been filling the running role the past couple of weeks. They took apart Texas Tech in Lubbock 2 weeks ago and then just destroyed TCU last week in Manhattan. In order to compete here, Houston will need an inspired effort and a solid scheme to match up with the Wildcats. Enter noted dipshit Dana Holgerson. I'm sure he'll be able to whip those guys into a frenzy and calculate an intricate game plan to stymie Chris Kleiman and K State's staff. The last time they went on the road, Texas Tech blew them out, and K State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 at home. I missed a great chance to ride the Wildcats last week. I'm not making that mistake again.

You had tomorrow's paper if you read this one. Never in doubt.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @NC State +9.5 v Clemson: Here we have two 4-3 teams, but where are their mindsets coming into this game? NC State comes into this game off a bye after getting humbled by Duke in a spot that I hated for them, but I think I like where they stand a little better than where Clemson is. The Tigers have no experience with being so far out of the national scene at this point in the season, and you have to wonder how they respond to another road game after dropping an OT game to a Miami squad that was absolutely fragile and ripe for the picking with a backup QB. Their offense couldn't get it done, and I think it's safe to say that the cake has been baked on this Klubnik led offense, at least for this year. They just can't get anything accomplished, and there isn't much evidence to suggest they'll put up enough points on NC State's defense here to run away from the Wolfpack, despite the Pack's track record on offense themselves. Clemson's offensive line has not been good, as they grade out 95th in run blocking and 65th in pass blocking. Their receivers have very little explosiveness and Klubnik still has a penchant for bad plays in big spots, with the no-mans land run in OT this past week being the latest example. NC State's defense is not as good as it's been in recent years, but they still stop the run and they're 18th in sack rate. Offensively, the Robert Anae addition at OC hasn't paid any dividends, but the move to MJ Morris gave them a spark two games ago against Marshall, and MJ Morris is definitely more comfortable at home. Also, Kevin Concepcion has proven himself to be a playmaker on the outside in recent games. I think this will be a low a scoring game, but I think the Pack con compete here. a 4-3 spot isn't a complete failure for them, especially when they had the reset with the bye week. Don't like the spot for Clemson here off that Miami game which solidified them in a position they've seldom been in. I like the home dog here.

Another Klubnik defensive TD allowed. Even though I was wrong about Clemson not having previously been in this 4-3 spot, they never had a prayer of winning this game, let alone covering. They've definitely not been 4-4.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Michigan State +7 @Minnesota: The Gophers are feeling themselves after their big win at Iowa last week, but make no mistake, that was merely one team sucking a little less on offense than anything good Minnesota did. Despite Michigan State having their souls crushed by Michigan last week, they are much better off being on the road, and practically every Big Ten West team is subject to having their home fans boo them off the field when they get a steady diet of horrific offense. Nobody wants to watch the kind of offense that Minnesota is putting out there, and the Spartans have shown they can compete with that kind of attack. Minnesota ranks 122nd in yards per attempt, so their only hope offensively is to grind out yards on the ground, but that's the one thing MSU does well, as well as getting off the field on 3rd down, which Minnesota will find themselves in constantly since they have no explosiveness. Michigan State's offense isn't much better, but at least Katin Houser looked somewhat competent a couple weeks ago at Rutgers, who has a much better defense statistically than Minnesota. I see this as two teams that look almost exactly the same on paper, with a slight edge to MSU on defense. In that case, I'll take the full 7 in a letdown spot for the Gophers.

I'd probably make this bet again, given the numbers of the teams coming in. And I'd lose again because Minnesota was by far the better team here. There are so many bad teams in the Big Ten.

 

[B.A.R.]

5. Michigan State +7 @Minnesota: The Gophers are feeling themselves after their big win at Iowa last week, but make no mistake, that was merely one team sucking a little less on offense than anything good Minnesota did. Despite Michigan State having their souls crushed by Michigan last week, they are much better off being on the road, and practically every Big Ten West team is subject to having their home fans boo them off the field when they get a steady diet of horrific offense. Nobody wants to watch the kind of offense that Minnesota is putting out there, and the Spartans have shown they can compete with that kind of attack. Minnesota ranks 122nd in yards per attempt, so their only hope offensively is to grind out yards on the ground, but that's the one thing MSU does well, as well as getting off the field on 3rd down, which Minnesota will find themselves in constantly since they have no explosiveness. Michigan State's offense isn't much better, but at least Katin Houser looked somewhat competent a couple weeks ago at Rutgers, who has a much better defense statistically than Minnesota. I see this as two teams that look almost exactly the same on paper, with a slight edge to MSU on defense. In that case, I'll take the full 7 in a letdown spot for the Gophers.

This seems to be one of the most popular plays of the week.

I do think as we head down the stretch, the depleted MSU roster will wear down a bit. With games vs OSU and PSU left, hopefully that doesn't begin until after this week.

They should be a great fade in November though.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

This seems to be one of the most popular plays of the week.

I do think as we head down the stretch, the depleted MSU roster will wear down a bit. With games vs OSU and PSU left, hopefully that doesn't begin until after this week.

They should be a great fade in November though.

You could put Minnesota in that writeup and it would be correct too....

 

[M.W.]

Had some horrific travel issues this week so I am still on the road, but I have some time this morning, so we'll get started. 9-3 last week to bring the overall total to 57-45 and some pushes (.5588). Hopefully some momentum happens, but I have not been one to gather additional prosperity after a good week over the years.

I'm already sick of the Michigan stuff, so you won't hear me comment on that. Fast forward button is primed for that.

1. @Penn State -32 v Indiana: I's loath to lay points like this, but classic bully James Franklin is addicted to kicking sand in the faces of weaklings, and I don't think he'll miss a chance to do it this week off that effort at Ohio State. The Penn State defense is a complete mismatch for Indiana's offense, and Franklin will do everything in his power, even if it means faking kneel downs, to cover here. Penn State is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite over the past 3 years, and Indiana is now 2-11 ATS on the road in that same span. No sense in expecting any bucking of this freight train of a 2 headed trend.

Franklin is 1-11 ATS in the game following his team's first loss in 3 seasons at Vandy and 9 seasons at Penn State. That includes five games as a DD favorite ranging from -13.5 to -46.5, including a straight-up loss to Illinois as -24.5. The only cover was last year (as -5.5 v. Minnesota) when his team's first loss was by 24 points at Michigan (the greatest margin of any of these first defeats). The subsequent beatdown of Minnesota (45-17) might have been inspired by the result the last time Penn State had played Minnesota, when the 9-0 Gophers beat the 8-0 Nittany Lions, who were 6-point road favorites. Coincidentally, in the game after that loss to Minnesota in 2019, Penn State came home to face Indiana and failed to cover, winning 34-27 as -15.

 

[M.W.]

4. @NC State +9.5 v Clemson: Here we have two 4-3 teams, but where are their mindsets coming into this game? NC State comes into this game off a bye after getting humbled by Duke in a spot that I hated for them, but I think I like where they stand a little better than where Clemson is. The Tigers have no experience with being so far out of the national scene at this point in the season, and you have to wonder how they respond to another road game after dropping an OT game to a Miami squad that was absolutely fragile and ripe for the picking with a backup QB. Their offense couldn't get it done, and I think it's safe to say that the cake has been baked on this Klubnik led offense, at least for this year. They just can't get anything accomplished, and there isn't much evidence to suggest they'll put up enough points on NC State's defense here to run away from the Wolfpack, despite the Pack's track record on offense themselves. Clemson's offensive line has not been good, as they grade out 95th in run blocking and 65th in pass blocking. Their receivers have very little explosiveness and Klubnik still has a penchant for bad plays in big spots, with the no-mans land run in OT this past week being the latest example. NC State's defense is not as good as it's been in recent years, but they still stop the run and they're 18th in sack rate. Offensively, the Robert Anae addition at OC hasn't paid any dividends, but the move to MJ Morris gave them a spark two games ago against Marshall, and MJ Morris is definitely more comfortable at home. Also, Kevin Concepcion has proven himself to be a playmaker on the outside in recent games. I think this will be a low a scoring game, but I think the Pack con compete here. a 4-3 spot isn't a complete failure for them, especially when they had the reset with the bye week. Don't like the spot for Clemson here off that Miami game which solidified them in a position they've seldom been in. I like the home dog here.

I agree with your pick. If it were at Clemson it would be different, but in Raleigh this is an absolutely terrible spot, But the part in bold is inaccurate. Clemson was 4-3 two years ago before winning the final 6.

 

[AliShaheed]

Franklin is 1-11 ATS in the game following his team's first loss in 3 seasons at Vandy and 9 seasons at Penn State. That includes five games as a DD favorite ranging from -13.5 to -46.5, including a straight-up loss to Illinois as -24.5. The only cover was last year (as -5.5 v. Minnesota) when his team's first loss was by 24 points at Michigan (the greatest margin of any of these first defeats). The subsequent beatdown of Minnesota (45-17) might have been inspired by the result the last time Penn State had played Minnesota, when the 9-0 Gophers beat the 8-0 Nittany Lions, who were 6-point road favorites. Coincidentally, in the game after that, Penn State came home to face Indiana and failed to cover, winning 34-27 as -15.

Also wondering what Franklin's ATS record is coming off a loss to OSU...

 

[CPA-hole]

Also wondering what Franklin's ATS record is coming off a loss to OSU...

5-4 SU
4-5 ATS

 

[Br@ssknux]

Franklin is 1-11 ATS in the game following his team's first loss in 3 seasons at Vandy and 9 seasons at Penn State. That includes five games as a DD favorite ranging from -13.5 to -46.5, including a straight-up loss to Illinois as -24.5. The only cover was last year (as -5.5 v. Minnesota) when his team's first loss was by 24 points at Michigan (the greatest margin of any of these first defeats). The subsequent beatdown of Minnesota (45-17) might have been inspired by the result the last time Penn State had played Minnesota, when the 9-0 Gophers beat the 8-0 Nittany Lions, who were 6-point road favorites. Coincidentally, in the game after that, Penn State came home to face Indiana and failed to cover, winning 34-27 as -15.

Good info there. I'd add that Minnesota was starting Kaliakmanis for the first time I believe in the one cover you cited, and he was a deer caught in headlights. Given the gulf between the PSU defense and the Indiana offense and Franklin's penchant for covering, I'm hoping the trend bucks, but I can't deny you make great points here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Duke +6 @Louisville: This line has gone to 6, I assume because the assumption is that Riley Leonard isn't going to play. I'm going to assume that too, but even though I like everyone else am a little spooked when watching henry Bellin try to throw the ball, I still think this is too many points for Louisville to lay here. As I mentioned last week, I laid off Duke because I felt that there was a complicated motivational tidbit on that game. Duke's goal is to make the ACC title game, and even with a loss at FSU, that was still intact because Duke still controlled their destiny in that regard. I was worried that when it became evident that it wasn't their night, they might pack it in a bit and fight another day. For 3 quarters, Duke went toe to toe with the Seminoles in Tallahassee, but they fell off late, and I think that lack of motivational urgency might have contributed to that. There will be no such lack of urgency this week, as they can take care of Louisville this week, who looks like their strongest competitor for that second place slot not that North Carolina has lost. Even with Leonard, Duke's strength was not a high octane passing attack. They rely on the run and their defense, and both will be there for them this week as CB Myles Jones looks like he'll be back. Louisville has been great at home, but Duke's pass defense will be the best Jack Plummer has seen, especially since ND was a shell of themselves when they showed up a few weeks ago. On paper, these two teams are at a matchup standstill, and Louisville RB Jawar Jordan who is averaging 7+ yards per carry is very questionable for the game. Even though the Cards are coming off a bye, I don't think this is a good role for them, as Brohm thrives on the underdog role. In his last 5 years at Purdue, Brohm was a favorite of less than 10 in conference games at home six times, and he went 0-6 ATS losing 5 of those 6 outright. Mike Elko certainly has been a covering machine since he's been at Duke, and I think the Blue Devils will fight tooth and nail in this one. 6 is too many in my opinion, even without Leonard.

Man, I misread this one. Duke was completely non-competitive and Leonard played! Kudos to Brohm. In my defense, I thought RB Jordan was probably not going to play, and he torched the Blue Devils. When you are a running team, and your best RB only gets 5 carries, that's a bad sign. Hell, Duke only ran 48 plays!

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Purdue +2 @Nebraska: I've been out of commission all week so I haven't been able to really take stock of what's popular and not this week, but I gather there's going to be a lot of people on Purdue here. I actually circled this game on my calendar 3 Fridays ago. On that night, I witnessed one of the most inept performances I can ever remember an Illinois team mustering up in their 20-7 loss to Nebraska in Champaign. There's been much bigger blowouts, to be sure against teams that had a huge talent advantage over them, but never anything so far below their capabilities as that night. Despite that, Nebraska spent the second half trying their hardest to give the game to Illinois. Luckily for them, Illinois wouldn't take it. I estimate there probably was 110-120 teams in college football that would have beaten Nebraska that night. I circled this game because Nebraska was off the following week and then hosted Northwestern the week after that, and silly me, I didn't ultimately have the stones to take less than 10 with Northwestern. Now Purdue comes in off a bye with a new staff that still has 100% buy in from their roster. They're 2-5 but they've played the 7th toughest schedule per Sagarin vs Nebraska who has played the 52nd toughest. Nebraska can't move the ball on offense, and now they'll be without their top 3 receivers and also 3 starters on the offensive line. Purdue has been bad defensively against the pass, but Nebraska can't throw the ball. The Cornhuskers are ripe for the picking here at 4-3, as they are nowhere near as good as their record and I think we'll see evidence of that on Saturday.

Nebraska totaled 277 yards and scored 31 points. When your opponent gives you 3 turnovers and you block a FG for a TD, that's what happens. They were great on defense though. 2 more bad Big ten teams.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Utah +7 v Oregon: There's just no way I can avoid taking a full TD with Whittingham and Utah at home. On paper, it looks like Utah would be behind the 8 ball on offense, and they probably will be, but they've been a much improved offense since they moved safety Sione Vaki to offense. He's been fantastic since moving there, averaging 12 yards per touch out of the backfield. Oregon is certainly a step up over the Cal and USC defenses, but Utah has definitely looked a lot better on offense lately. Defensively, they are stout as usual, especially at home. Again, Oregon will be a step up compared to the offenses the Utes have faced, but the same is true for Oregon as Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Colorado, Stanford and Washington are no comparison to Utah, especially in Salt Lake. In the last 2 meetings, Utah has held the Oregon offense to 20 points last week in Eugene and 7 points the year before that in the Ducks last trip to Salt Lake. Fading the Utes at home is not something I'm interested in, and in this case, 7 is too much to lay given the Utes defense, coaching and improvement on offense.

This was the capper of a horrid 3:30 run for me. Hats off to Oregon. They just ran Utah out of their own stadium. What an impressive effort. I hereby apologize for doubting their football acumen.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Iowa State -3 @Baylor: Despite winning a couple road games recently, it's really astounding how bad Baylor looks on paper statistically. They are 111th or worse in every defensive category and about the only thing they do well offensively is throw the ball and that's only if Blake Shapen stays healthy and doesn't get the dropsies in the pocket or the intercepties when he's throwing the ball. Unfortunately, Iowa State ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt and grades out 16th in coverage per PFF. Rocco Becht has also settled in a bit at QB for the Cyclones, passing efficiently in their two wins the past 2 weeks. The only home game out of 5 that the Bears have won was a taffy pull with Long Island, and they were hammered in their two conference home games against Texas Tech and Texas, both times with the game well on it's way to a blowout by halftime. On paper, Iowa State is significantly better than Baylor, and if things start bad for the Bears it might be a bit of a negative scene as the home fans have seen that movie before.

"On paper" translated. Baylor seems like a go against at home, at least for this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Mississippi State +6.5 @Auburn: You'd have to lay -125 to get this to 7 in most cases, so I wouldn't go that high. I think 6.5 is still a good value here for Mississippi State. It's still up in the air whether Will Rogers plays or not, but I think the Bulldogs can win with Mike White, who had his moments with Vandy before he transferred here, and they won with him last week despite only scoring 7 points at Arkansas. Auburn just hasn't given us any evidence that they should be favored by this much over a competent foe. Defensively, Mississippi State does a good job of stopping the run, which at this point is just about all the Tigers can do. They've cracked more than 307 yards only twice, and that was against UMass and Samford. The LSU and Cal defenses, which have struggled mightily otherwise, both held Auburn under 300 yards. Auburn can't convert 3rd downs (122nd) and can't protect the QB(126th in sack rate against), and Mississippi State is solid in both of those areas defensively, so there's advantages all over the field for the Bulldogs. I wouldn't go so far to say the wrong team is favored because Miss State is no great shakes themselves, but if Auburn runs them out, they'll have done something they haven't shown a penchant for so far this year.

Payton Thorne had more yards at halftime than he had for the year combined previously. (Not really, but almost). Should have known Miss St wouldn't be able to crank up a solid road effort two weeks in a row. It was an outlier for sure, but not a great call here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Will have a few more in the AM

 

[KJ]

10. Mississippi State +6.5 @Auburn: You'd have to lay -125 to get this to 7 in most cases, so I wouldn't go that high. I think 6.5 is still a good value here for Mississippi State. It's still up in the air whether Will Rogers plays or not, but I think the Bulldogs can win with Mike White, who had his moments with Vandy before he transferred here, and they won with him last week despite only scoring 7 points at Arkansas. Auburn just hasn't given us any evidence that they should be favored by this much over a competent foe. Defensively, Mississippi State does a good job of stopping the run, which at this point is just about all the Tigers can do. They've cracked more than 307 yards only twice, and that was against UMass and Samford. The LSU and Cal defenses, which have struggled mightily otherwise, both held Auburn under 300 yards. Auburn can't convert 3rd downs (122nd) and can't protect the QB(126th in sack rate against), and Mississippi State is solid in both of those areas defensively, so there's advantages all over the field for the Bulldogs. I wouldn't go so far to say the wrong team is favored because Miss State is no great shakes themselves, but if Auburn runs them out, they'll have done something they haven't shown a penchant for so far this year.

Been waiting to see if it can get to 7, will have zero problem playing at 6 and ML to boot

 

[Gordon gekko]

On a lot of your plays, good luck!

 

[2daBank]

2. @Kansas +10(-120) v Oklahoma: 10 has been available all week, but if you want it now you'll have to buy it up at -120 for the most part. It looks like Jalon Daniels is still out, but Jason Bean has played QB for the Jayhawks against the Sooners the past 2 years and he directed them to 42 in Norman last year, so I'm sure he'll be comfortable going against this Sooner defense, especially in Lawrence off a bye. Other than the Texas game, there hasn't been much to be excited about from a Sooner perspective as it relates to who else they've beaten. I've talked about the SMU, Cincinnati, etc matchups, and they had another sleepy game last week at home against UCF, which they frankly were lucky to escape with a win. Defensively they looked confused and got burned on a couple misdirection/tricky plays that Plumlee was able to pull off. The last team you want to face when you're vulnerable to that kind of thing is Kansas with two weeks to prepare. There's no doubt that OU will move he ball and score on the KU defense, but again, Leipold will have time to get things ready, and if we can get some open possessions from the Sooners, a missed FG here and there(which they appear to be susceptible to) that should keep the Jayhawks close and in the neighborhood for an outright. Sooner RB Tawee Walker will be back this week, so they'll probably look better on the ground, but they have struggled running the ball overall lately. Huge game for the Kansas program here, I think this might be too many points, and Oklahoma appears ripe to get knocked off, especially when a lot of people are just assuming they'll run the table into a rematch with Texas.

Man, I think last week against ucf was the game they were ripe. I fully expect a refocused effort now that they got the Texas hangover out the way: I been incredibly impressed with Sooners all year. We agree I believe Sooners offense can do basically anything they want here, I just think you could be selling short the vast improvement Venables d has made in year 2, think ku offense will be somewhat surprised how much tougher it be to move the ball on this version of Sooners than the previous few times they faced. That said I prefer Sooners team total over 38.5 or some Sooners offensive props opposed to actually laying the points, I would be pretty surprised if Sooners score 40+ (which I expect) and ku able to stay within 10. I have this something like 45-20 but I’m perfectly happy if it 41-35!!! Hopefully we both cash!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Been waiting to see if it can get to 7, will have zero problem playing at 6 and ML to boot

It'll only cost you -115 to get there at a lot of spots now.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Cal +10.5(-116) v USC: Although it's obvious that the risks of USC just playing to their profile and piling up the points against Cal are there, I really can't pass up the opportunity to take double digits against USC at this juncture. Assuming USC plays an offensive game consistent with their abilities, we can chalk up that Cal will probably allow 500+ yards to the Trojans. Washington did it against them, Oregon State got 499, and Utah and Arizona State put up yardage totals well above their averages. IF that happens we still can't assume a cover for USC because Cal is likely to have their way with the USC defense as well, regardless of who plays QB. The Bears have already piled up 500+ 3 times this year including against Washington and Oregon State. Jaydn Ott has been very good as usual on the ground and figures to have no problem getting yards against this USC front. Even when USC had everything to play for and Caleb Williams hadn't yet exhausted himself with the all hours marketing siege he has unleashed on the American public, USC wasn't having their way with the cupcake early season schedule the Pac 12 lined up for them. After dispatching Stanford in Trent Taylor's 2nd ever game as coach, they had Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona to play before their schedule got difficult. They covered none of those games, including having to fight off an Arizona State team who only 2 weeks earlier was the laughingstock of college football after committing 8 turnovers and getting shut out at home by Fresno State. Colorado and Arizona outgained them and lit them up for 500+ yards apiece and Utah exploded for their best offensive game of the year against them last week. So even if we got the expected performance of a focused USC team, there's issues with the Trojans. We all know, however, that we can't expect that, because there is no telling where their collective heads are. Their season looks to be flushed down the drain and they have games with Oregon, Washington and UCLA staring them in the face. Caleb Williams seems a shell of himself, as his big time throw to turnover worthy play rate is about the same as Byrum Brown, Rocky Lombardi and a one armed Devin Leary. We all know Cal's history as a dog under Wilcox, so I see no reason to back the double digit home dog against a team that's proven they can't cover against like opponents.

Ah, too bad Cal couldn't dial up a better two point play. But still...read above and that's how the game went.

 

[2daBank]

6. Duke +6 @Louisville: This line has gone to 6, I assume because the assumption is that Riley Leonard isn't going to play. I'm going to assume that too, but even though I like everyone else am a little spooked when watching henry Bellin try to throw the ball, I still think this is too many points for Louisville to lay here. As I mentioned last week, I laid off Duke because I felt that there was a complicated motivational tidbit on that game. Duke's goal is to make the ACC title game, and even with a loss at FSU, that was still intact because Duke still controlled their destiny in that regard. I was worried that when it became evident that it wasn't their night, they might pack it in a bit and fight another day. For 3 quarters, Duke went toe to toe with the Seminoles in Tallahassee, but they fell off late, and I think that lack of motivational urgency might have contributed to that. There will be no such lack of urgency this week, as they can take care of Louisville this week, who looks like their strongest competitor for that second place slot not that North Carolina has lost. Even with Leonard, Duke's strength was not a high octane passing attack. They rely on the run and their defense, and both will be there for them this week as CB Myles Jones looks like he'll be back. Louisville has been great at home, but Duke's pass defense will be the best Jack Plummer has seen, especially since ND was a shell of themselves when they showed up a few weeks ago. On paper, these two teams are at a matchup standstill, and Louisville RB Jawar Jordan who is averaging 7+ yards per carry is very questionable for the game. Even though the Cards are coming off a bye, I don't think this is a good role for them, as Brohm thrives on the underdog role. In his last 5 years at Purdue, Brohm was a favorite of less than 10 in conference games at home six times, and he went 0-6 ATS losing 5 of those 6 outright. Mike Elko certainly has been a covering machine since he's been at Duke, and I think the Blue Devils will fight tooth and nail in this one. 6 is too many in my opinion, even without Leonard.

Like this one cause think duke d be a real problem for ville but man how stupid was it to play Leonard last week when he clearly wasn’t ready and now risk not having him here?? Didn’t understand that at all, take the L vs fsu last week, let the qb rest one more week then make a push to only have the 1 acc loss and get a crack at fsu with a healthy Leonard in the acc championship game: No clue why they played him in that game? You would think had he sat he be much closer to 100% this week!!

 

[2daBank]

11. @Cal +10.5(-116) v USC: Although it's obvious that the risks of USC just playing to their profile and piling up the points against Cal are there, I really can't pass up the opportunity to take double digits against USC at this juncture. Assuming USC plays an offensive game consistent with their abilities, we can chalk up that Cal will probably allow 500+ yards to the Trojans. Washington did it against them, Oregon State got 499, and Utah and Arizona State put up yardage totals well above their averages. IF that happens we still can't assume a cover for USC because Cal is likely to have their way with the USC defense as well, regardless of who plays QB. The Bears have already piled up 500+ 3 times this year including against Washington and Oregon State. Jaydn Ott has been very good as usual on the ground and figures to have no problem getting yards against this USC front. Even when USC had everything to play for and Caleb Williams hadn't yet exhausted himself with the all hours marketing siege he has unleashed on the American public, USC wasn't having their way with the cupcake early season schedule the Pac 12 lined up for them. After dispatching Stanford in Trent Taylor's 2nd ever game as coach, they had Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona to play before their schedule got difficult. They covered none of those games, including having to fight off an Arizona State team who only 2 weeks earlier was the laughingstock of college football after committing 8 turnovers and getting shut out at home by Fresno State. Colorado and Arizona outgained them and lit them up for 500+ yards apiece and Utah exploded for their best offensive game of the year against them last week. So even if we got the expected performance of a focused USC team, there's issues with the Trojans. We all know, however, that we can't expect that, because there is no telling where their collective heads are. Their season looks to be flushed down the drain and they have games with Oregon, Washington and UCLA staring them in the face. Caleb Williams seems a shell of himself, as his big time throw to turnover worthy play rate is about the same as Byrum Brown, Rocky Lombardi and a one armed Devin Leary. We all know Cal's history as a dog under Wilcox, so I see no reason to back the double digit home dog against a team that's proven they can't cover against like opponents.

Ott over rush yards my favorite prop of the day. Obviously lined up w Cal covering!

 

[2daBank]

9. Iowa State -3 @Baylor: Despite winning a couple road games recently, it's really astounding how bad Baylor looks on paper statistically. They are 111th or worse in every defensive category and about the only thing they do well offensively is throw the ball and that's only if Blake Shapen stays healthy and doesn't get the dropsies in the pocket or the intercepties when he's throwing the ball. Unfortunately, Iowa State ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt and grades out 16th in coverage per PFF. Rocco Becht has also settled in a bit at QB for the Cyclones, passing efficiently in their two wins the past 2 weeks. The only home game out of 5 that the Bears have won was a taffy pull with Long Island, and they were hammered in their two conference home games against Texas Tech and Texas, both times with the game well on it's way to a blowout by halftime. On paper, Iowa State is significantly better than Baylor, and if things start bad for the Bears it might be a bit of a negative scene as the home fans have seen that movie before.

I think this one has sneaky potential for a shootout here

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Arkansas State +1.5 @Louisiana Monroe: I usually like to consider La-Mo when they are a dog, which is virtually every week, but not as a favorite. Since 2019 the Warhawks are 1-7-1 ATS as a home favorite, and going back further I could find only 6 times where they were a home favorite in the Sun Belt and they didn't cover any of them. When you line these two teams up, it's a dead heat, with both offenses having the edge over the defenses, but I think the difference in this game will be Arky State QB Jaylen Raynor. Raynor has been electric several times this year, but struggled when the Red Wolves were overmatched by the opposition. When they've played teams in their weight class(Southern Miss, UMass), Raynor has been the difference, piling up big plays and averaging more than 13 yards per pass attempt. Even in a step up game against Coastal two weeks ago he threw for 300+ and 8+ yards per attempt. Monroe has been alright offensively as well and they have one of my favorite WRs in the country, Bugs Mortimer(!!!) who averages 21 yards per catch, but the combination of Raynor and Monroe's terrible record as seldom installed favorite has me on the Red Wolves.

My man Bugs had 5 catches for 76 yards. Raynor wasn't great but he was good enough. 9.9 yards per attempt. La Mo's perfect record of home favorite failure in conference remains intact.

 

[Gordon gekko]

I think this one has sneaky potential for a shootout here

I’m on over

 

[Gordon gekko]

Like this one cause think duke d be a real problem for ville but man how stupid was it to play Leonard last week when he clearly wasn’t ready and now risk not having him here?? Didn’t understand that at all, take the L vs fsu last week, let the qb rest one more week then make a push to only have the 1 acc loss and get a crack at fsu with a healthy Leonard in the acc championship game: No clue why they played him in that game? You would think had he sat he be much closer to 100% this week!!

Louisville hasn’t proven to me yet they can give over 3 pts vs a top 20 defense. Worried about Duke offense of course. Low scoring

 

[Gordon gekko]

10. Mississippi State +6.5 @Auburn: You'd have to lay -125 to get this to 7 in most cases, so I wouldn't go that high. I think 6.5 is still a good value here for Mississippi State. It's still up in the air whether Will Rogers plays or not, but I think the Bulldogs can win with Mike White, who had his moments with Vandy before he transferred here, and they won with him last week despite only scoring 7 points at Arkansas. Auburn just hasn't given us any evidence that they should be favored by this much over a competent foe. Defensively, Mississippi State does a good job of stopping the run, which at this point is just about all the Tigers can do. They've cracked more than 307 yards only twice, and that was against UMass and Samford. The LSU and Cal defenses, which have struggled mightily otherwise, both held Auburn under 300 yards. Auburn can't convert 3rd downs (122nd) and can't protect the QB(126th in sack rate against), and Mississippi State is solid in both of those areas defensively, so there's advantages all over the field for the Bulldogs. I wouldn't go so far to say the wrong team is favored because Miss State is no great shakes themselves, but if Auburn runs them out, they'll have done something they haven't shown a penchant for so far this year.

On them at 7, Auburn laying points, come on

 

[Gordon gekko]

9. Iowa State -3 @Baylor: Despite winning a couple road games recently, it's really astounding how bad Baylor looks on paper statistically. They are 111th or worse in every defensive category and about the only thing they do well offensively is throw the ball and that's only if Blake Shapen stays healthy and doesn't get the dropsies in the pocket or the intercepties when he's throwing the ball. Unfortunately, Iowa State ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt and grades out 16th in coverage per PFF. Rocco Becht has also settled in a bit at QB for the Cyclones, passing efficiently in their two wins the past 2 weeks. The only home game out of 5 that the Bears have won was a taffy pull with Long Island, and they were hammered in their two conference home games against Texas Tech and Texas, both times with the game well on it's way to a blowout by halftime. On paper, Iowa State is significantly better than Baylor, and if things start bad for the Bears it might be a bit of a negative scene as the home fans have seen that movie before.

Everyone on them, got early at 1, but worried about Baylor recent play.

 

[Gordon gekko]

8. @Utah +7 v Oregon: There's just no way I can avoid taking a full TD with Whittingham and Utah at home. On paper, it looks like Utah would be behind the 8 ball on offense, and they probably will be, but they've been a much improved offense since they moved safety Sione Vaki to offense. He's been fantastic since moving there, averaging 12 yards per touch out of the backfield. Oregon is certainly a step up over the Cal and USC defenses, but Utah has definitely looked a lot better on offense lately. Defensively, they are stout as usual, especially at home. Again, Oregon will be a step up compared to the offenses the Utes have faced, but the same is true for Oregon as Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Colorado, Stanford and Washington are no comparison to Utah, especially in Salt Lake. In the last 2 meetings, Utah has held the Oregon offense to 20 points last week in Eugene and 7 points the year before that in the Ducks last trip to Salt Lake. Fading the Utes at home is not something I'm interested in, and in this case, 7 is too much to lay given the Utes defense, coaching and improvement on offense.

The only game opposite, have Oregon -8, so key number, played Washington to end, Utah not in either category so go Ducks, only one I’m against

 

[2daBank]

Louisville hasn’t proven to me yet they can give over 3 pts vs a top 20 defense. Worried about Duke offense of course. Low scoring

Agree

 

[2daBank]

I’m on over

Great minds. I’ll be on over and I think both qb passing yards over.

 

[KJ]

Great minds. I’ll be on over and I think both qb passing yards over.

Hope ISU score 50+

Fuck Baylor

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Troy -6.5 @Texas State: It's been a remarkable year for new coach GJ Kinne and the Bobcats, starting with their opening win at Baylor and continuing with some nice performances after that leading to a 5-2 record with the only losses coming against La La and UTSA on the road in competitive efforts. Their wins, however, have been against the dregs of the Sun Belt and elsewhere, and this will be their first game against one of the heavyweights of the Sun Belt. Troy started slow but has has settled in under Sumrall defensively to where they usually are: 13th in yards per play, great advanced numbers in EPA, etc, 8th against the run, 35th against the pass. Offensively, Gunnar Watson has turned into a decent QB and the running game has been effective with Vidal at RB. When they've played the upstarts, they've hammered them, taking care of Georgia State a few weeks ago and shoving Jaylen Raynor into a locker after he had a couple of sparkling efforts against lesser lights. I kind of see the party ending for Texas State here, as their defense looks decent only because of the competition they've played, and I would be surprised if they have success offensively against this defense. Also, Troy needs this game badly to keep themselves in the driver's seat in the Sun Belt West, so I expect a solid effort from the Trojans.

They had a slow start but Troy eventually got it handled. Gunnar Watson was fantastic and Tj Finley gave us a couple picks. 4th quarter was 17-0 Trojans.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Lot of games this week.

Gonna also be on these night games:

Colorado State +14.5
Wisconsin +14.5
Arizona St +5.5
Arizona +3

Writeups coming....need to take care of some things.

 

[M.W.]

6. Duke +6 @Louisville: This line has gone to 6, I assume because the assumption is that Riley Leonard isn't going to play. I'm going to assume that too, but even though I like everyone else am a little spooked when watching henry Bellin try to throw the ball, I still think this is too many points for Louisville to lay here. As I mentioned last week, I laid off Duke because I felt that there was a complicated motivational tidbit on that game. Duke's goal is to make the ACC title game, and even with a loss at FSU, that was still intact because Duke still controlled their destiny in that regard. I was worried that when it became evident that it wasn't their night, they might pack it in a bit and fight another day. For 3 quarters, Duke went toe to toe with the Seminoles in Tallahassee, but they fell off late, and I think that lack of motivational urgency might have contributed to that. There will be no such lack of urgency this week, as they can take care of Louisville this week, who looks like their strongest competitor for that second place slot not that North Carolina has lost. Even with Leonard, Duke's strength was not a high octane passing attack. They rely on the run and their defense, and both will be there for them this week as CB Myles Jones looks like he'll be back. Louisville has been great at home, but Duke's pass defense will be the best Jack Plummer has seen, especially since ND was a shell of themselves when they showed up a few weeks ago. On paper, these two teams are at a matchup standstill, and Louisville RB Jawar Jordan who is averaging 7+ yards per carry is very questionable for the game. Even though the Cards are coming off a bye, I don't think this is a good role for them, as Brohm thrives on the underdog role. In his last 5 years at Purdue, Brohm was a favorite of less than 10 in conference games at home six times, and he went 0-6 ATS losing 5 of those 6 outright. Mike Elko certainly has been a covering machine since he's been at Duke, and I think the Blue Devils will fight tooth and nail in this one. 6 is too many in my opinion, even without Leonard.

Do you see a correlation between Duke and the under?

 

[2daBank]

Hope ISU score 50+

Fuck Baylor

I know buddy! Honestly I hate them just cause for years I couldn’t pick Baylor games to save my life but I have done ok playing props in some their games this year, Cept they ducked me last week, I hit Shapen as I continue to pick on cincy secondary but I had that freaking wr needing just 51 yards, he damn near had it by half and actually lost a few yards in 4th!! Fucker had 7 catches and still couldn’t clear his low 50s number! Plus they ran that trick play in 1st half and dude was running down middle field wide open, coulda cashed on that one play and prick qb took the check down to tight end!! We have different reasons but baylor is def on my shit list!! Lol. I do think they be able to throw on isu, ya’ll pass d numbers are tough for me to totally buy considering lot the teams they played. I like Bect to have a big game also! Coming off one his better games then a bye and facing a bears d you can def throw on. He could smash his 207.5 pass yard total

 

[KJ]

I know buddy! Honestly I hate them just cause for years I couldn’t pick Baylor games to save my life but I have done ok playing props in some their games this year, Cept they ducked me last week, I hit Shapen as I continue to pick on cincy secondary but I had that freaking wr needing just 51 yards, he damn near had it by half and actually lost a few yards in 4th!! Fucker had 7 catches and still couldn’t clear his low 50s number! Plus they ran that trick play in 1st half and dude was running down middle field wide open, coulda cashed on that one play and prick qb took the check down to tight end!! We have different reasons but baylor is def on my shit list!! Lol. I do think they be able to throw on isu, ya’ll pass d numbers are tough for me to totally buy considering lot the teams they played. I like Bect to have a big game also! Coming off one his better games then a bye and facing a bears d you can def throw on. He could smash his 207.5 pass yard total

Don't want to take over @Brass thread with thoughts on the game but a) I hate playing against Baylor in Waco and b) ISU have two NFL guys in the defensive backfield. Rocco has done so progressively well that I'm impressed and that takes a lot. He has the best ISU recruit in program history sitting behind him and maybe that's propelled him. Fun watch for me at least. One thing Baylor has traditionally done well against the 3-3-5 has been to drop back and do delayed runs. The LB corp for ISU is pretty raw. But again, hope the Clones can put up half a hundred and overs will be good.

 

[M.W.]

9. Iowa State -3 @Baylor: Despite winning a couple road games recently, it's really astounding how bad Baylor looks on paper statistically. They are 111th or worse in every defensive category and about the only thing they do well offensively is throw the ball and that's only if Blake Shapen stays healthy and doesn't get the dropsies in the pocket or the intercepties when he's throwing the ball. Unfortunately, Iowa State ranks 12th in yards per pass attempt and grades out 16th in coverage per PFF. Rocco Becht has also settled in a bit at QB for the Cyclones, passing efficiently in their two wins the past 2 weeks. The only home game out of 5 that the Bears have won was a taffy pull with Long Island, and they were hammered in their two conference home games against Texas Tech and Texas, both times with the game well on it's way to a blowout by halftime. On paper, Iowa State is significantly better than Baylor, and if things start bad for the Bears it might be a bit of a negative scene as the home fans have seen that movie before.

It *is* homecoming at Baylor, so they might figuratively "show up" at home for a change. but I jumped on this immediate;y. It also fits my best "under" angle.

 

[M.W.]

Hope ISU score 50+

Fuck Baylor

Let's try to be happy with something like 30-10. By the way. I'm 100 miles north of Baylor, and we've had five inches of rain in the last 12 hours. I have no idea what it's like in Waco.

 

[2daBank]

It *is* homecoming at Baylor, so they might figuratively "show up" at home for a change. but I jumped on this immediate;y. It also fits my best "under" angle.

You like the under for real? God I think this game plays to the 30s for winner. Should be a slow moving clock as bears have become a all out passing team with Shapen at qb.

 

[KJ]

Let's try to be happy with something like 30-10. By the way. I'm 100 miles north of Baylor, and we've had five inches of rain in the last 12 hours. I have no idea what it's like in Waco.

These guys are pumping over, didn't know you must be on under. I won't have a play on the game at all, I know better than to get involved in this game as a fan. Thanks for the local info though, weather check is due across the board in the next half hour.

 

[2daBank]

Let's try to be happy with something like 30-10. By the way. I'm 100 miles north of Baylor, and we've had five inches of rain in the last 12 hours. I have no idea what it's like in Waco.

Im pretty sure weather looked decent but chances of rain starting around 3-4, maybe I’ll have to look closer there. Unless passing conditions terrible I think bears score 20+

 

[M.W.]

You like the under for real? God I think this game plays to the 30s for winner. Should be a slow moving clock as bears have become a all out passing team with Shapen at qb.

Campbell is predictable. This is an auto-play for me based on an Iowa State under angle that has cashed for me 7 straight times since I found it. It's one of the two most reliable angles I have, the other being the Clemson road game angle that says to fade Clemson against NC State. It doesn't mean they'll win this week, of course.

 

[2daBank]

Campbell is predictable. This is an auto-play for me based on an Iowa State under angle that has cashed for me 7 straight times since I found it. It's one of the two most reliable angles I have, the other being the Clemson road game angle that says to fade Clemson this week.

I don’t think ncst can score so I can’t bet them but not much interest in that game. Was hoping to get ncst tt under 17.5, 16.5 not so much. I can’t take ya’ll team anymore, they shoulda crushed canes and had another half littered with turnovers in scoring range, wtf is Dabo doing? Every big game they are so mistake prone in scoring range!! Could seriously be undefeated if not for all the turnovers/mistakes in scoring range starting w that duke game w 3 straight inside 10 and no damn points! They shoulda been up 20 on canes in 1st half last week!! It not even the flaws in the team that have killed them, it all the redic mistakes!! I’m done even tryikg w them as I can’t cap stupid! Lol


Far as Waco I see flash flood warnings unril
2marro w periods of torrential downpours. You can have the under, that pretty much gets me off the over and any passing props! Lol. Damn, I really liked both passing games in this one too. Oh well, rather move on than make a play and see 5 inches of rain take away any chance to throw ball! Lol. Think that is also a massive advantage for isu cause bears can’t run the ball at all and don’t defend the run much either. Guess im off that game.

 

[M.W.]

I could not agree more about Clemson. The fans are also expressing the same thoughts and questions you express above, which means you're paying attention! -- which you seem to be very good at when it comes to college football!

I'm on the under today -- expecting something like 17-10 or 17-14. Maybe that's how you play it.

I think you will see a different Clemson team at home against Notre Dame next week.

 

[M.W.]

6. Duke +6 @Louisville: This line has gone to 6, I assume because the assumption is that Riley Leonard isn't going to play. I'm going to assume that too, but even though I like everyone else am a little spooked when watching henry Bellin try to throw the ball, I still think this is too many points for Louisville to lay here. As I mentioned last week, I laid off Duke because I felt that there was a complicated motivational tidbit on that game. Duke's goal is to make the ACC title game, and even with a loss at FSU, that was still intact because Duke still controlled their destiny in that regard. I was worried that when it became evident that it wasn't their night, they might pack it in a bit and fight another day. For 3 quarters, Duke went toe to toe with the Seminoles in Tallahassee, but they fell off late, and I think that lack of motivational urgency might have contributed to that. There will be no such lack of urgency this week, as they can take care of Louisville this week, who looks like their strongest competitor for that second place slot not that North Carolina has lost. Even with Leonard, Duke's strength was not a high octane passing attack. They rely on the run and their defense, and both will be there for them this week as CB Myles Jones looks like he'll be back. Louisville has been great at home, but Duke's pass defense will be the best Jack Plummer has seen, especially since ND was a shell of themselves when they showed up a few weeks ago. On paper, these two teams are at a matchup standstill, and Louisville RB Jawar Jordan who is averaging 7+ yards per carry is very questionable for the game. Even though the Cards are coming off a bye, I don't think this is a good role for them, as Brohm thrives on the underdog role. In his last 5 years at Purdue, Brohm was a favorite of less than 10 in conference games at home six times, and he went 0-6 ATS losing 5 of those 6 outright. Mike Elko certainly has been a covering machine since he's been at Duke, and I think the Blue Devils will fight tooth and nail in this one. 6 is too many in my opinion, even without Leonard.

My gut said Duke is the play, but I wasn't ready to pull the trigger until I read this. Thanks.

 

[twinkie13]

GL this week @Br@ssknux
Great write ups as always
Totally agree on Messy St and worth a ML shot me thinks