Week 9 What Have We Learned

[s--k]

@KJ @TahoeLegend

I had to change one result from this week as I didn't realize Colorado actually covered vs Oregon. I also changed the kickoff time breaks as well.

I'm not sure if this is going to provide reliable data to use for picks. The time zone differences make it tough. I'm in the eastern timezone. So while we might consider the 12:00 kicks early games here and the 3:30 afternoon games...if a PAC 12 team plays at 3:30 eastern, we wouldn't consider that an early kick how I did the kickoff times, but for them, that is an early game. And a 7 or 8 kick east coast time is 4 or 5 for a mid afternoon kick out west. That makes it difficult to really apply on any kind of scale and make judgements off of it. I did it to illustrate how my day went this week. Lots of dogs early and I got off to a pretty good start and then faded as the day progressed. Then there are games that are lined right around -1 / +1 / pick'em and different sources with different numbers leaves some games not counted (I didn't count any pushes or games I had as pick'em even though they may've been a fav or dog at other books).

All times eastern, FBS vs FBS only, numbers are ATS, (outright dog wins)

Week 9 10/30
12:00-2:00 Favorites=6, Underdogs=8 (6)
2:30-6:30 Favorites=15, Underdogs=6 (3)
7:00-12:00 Favorites=9, Underdogs=4 (2)

Week 8 10/23
12:00-2:00 Favorites=5, Underdogs=7 (2)
2:30-6:30 Favorites=8, Underdogs=9(5)
7:00-12:00 Favorites=7, Underdogs=8 (4)

Week 7 10/16
12:00-2:00 Favorites=5, Underdogs=8 (5)
2:30-6:30 Favorites=9, Underdogs=7 (2)
7:00-12:00 Favorites=7, Underdogs =6 (4)

Week 6 10/9
12:00-2:00 Favorites=6, Underdogs=4 (2)
2:30-6:30 Favorites=6, Underdogs=12 (7)
7:00-12:00 Favorites=10, Underdogs=6 (4)

Week 5 10/2
12:00-2:00 Favorites=7, Underdogs=5 (4)
2:30-6:30 Favorites=9, Underdogs=11 (8)
7:00-12:00 Favorites=9, Underdogs=13 (7)

You could break those into percentage if you wanted, x%of dogs cover the early games, etc, but I really don't think it is anything to build angles off of. Just kind of changes weekly. Maybe if you had data from years and years and combined it all, but I'm not doing that LOL!

 

[s--k]

ULM gained nearly 400y but lost 5 turnovers

Arizona State outgained Wazzou, but lost 5 turnovers (-4 ratio)

Auburn only outgained Ole Miss by 20 yards on 4 fewer plays

Buffalo had a crazy 36-11 first down edge! Yard pretty even 499 (99 plays) - 484 (46 plays), but UB lost 44-56 to BGSU

BYU had staggering 734 TY and rushed for 385!

Cal was balanced 258 RY, 262 PY. Ore St - 3 turnover margin

Clemson outgained FSU by 138y, were -2 net turnovers - plays were 74 - 56

Colorado State only ran for 105 on 35 att

USF lost 4 turnovers, but ECU lost 3 as well

Florida outgained Georgia by 1 yard (355-354), but lost 7-34 - plays were 74-52

UTEP outgained FAU 443-280 and LOST (-2 TOs)

Georgia Southern outgained Georgia State 488-378 and lost by 7

VT ran for 241

Houston outgained SMU 489-355

Illinois only rushed for 107 on 30att vs Rutgers

Kansas State only outgained TCU 388-340, won by 19

UMass ran for 210 (4.56) on Liberty

Texas State went with Vitt at QB, 6-13-62-0-1 was their passing production

Michigan outgained MSU 552 (82 plays) - 401 (63 plays)

MTSU only gained 287 TY but scored 35 pts to beat USM 35-10, USM - 5 TOs, MTSU -3 TOs

Miss State 74 plays 438, UK 48 plays 216 (UK - 4 turnovers)

UNLV ran for 10 yards, Nevada ran for 22

Nebraska -4 turnovers (surprise!)

Minn ran for 308

UNC outgained Notre Dame by 39 yards, lost by 10, 564-525

Kansas had 7 first downs

Oregon passed for 568!

Pitt outgained Miami 587 (79 plays) to 499 (67 plays), Pitt lost 2 turnovers, Miami 1

Rice outgained North Texas by 76y, lost in OT, no turnovers either team

Wyoming actually gained 400y!, lost 2 turnovers

Akransas State lost 4 turnovers, outgained by 200y

Washington outgained Stanford 375-265, Stanford -3 turnvoers

Syracuse outrushed BC 293-71

Tulane lost 4 turnvoers to Cincy (UC lost 1). Tulane outrushed them 187-124

Navy did not complete a pass in their win at Tulsa (attempted 4)

Utah ran for 290

WF gained 266 rushing and 411 passing

ISU ran for 239, but WVU passed for 370

Iowa ran for 24y, Wisconsin ran for 169, Badgers outgained them 273-156 (Iowa -3 turnovers)

 

[M.W.]

I didn’t learn anything from this other than maybe how cruel life is but omg I just saw the last play of fsu/clemson. I had a idea what happened but that was even worse than I pictured it!! The play was set up so perfect, why in gods name did the 1st kid who got the pitch turn backwards? He had 2 blockers in front and a alley, he might have actually freaking scored and won (which woulda been a far more just result in that game!), seriously what the flying fuck was he doing? Don’t they coach that play to be exactly the way it was setting up so he gets the pitch and runs? There no world where going backwards there ever results in a win, and he really might have scored had he just went with the play design! You almost never see that it was gonna work!! I dunno if he fast enough he does score but the play was set up perfectly to actually work! No way it should have resulted in clemson covering!!

Wow -- I still haven't seen it. I was sitting on a train with my family checking the play-by-play on my phone. All I know is it cost me a lot of money (I was on the under).

 

[M.W.]

ULM gained nearly 400y but lost 5 turnovers

Arizona State outgained Wazzou, but lost 5 turnovers (-4 ratio)

Auburn only outgained Ole Miss by 20 yards on 4 fewer plays

Buffalo had a crazy 36-11 first down edge! Yard pretty even 499 (99 plays) - 484 (46 plays), but UB lost 44-56 to BGSU

BYU had staggering 734 TY and rushed for 385!

Cal was balanced 258 RY, 262 PY. Ore St - 3 turnover margin

Clemson outgained FSU by 138y, were -2 net turnovers - plays were 74 - 56

Colorado State only ran for 105 on 35 att

USF lost 4 turnovers, but ECU lost 3 as well

Florida outgained Georgia by 1 yard (355-354), but lost 7-34 - plays were 74-52

UTEP outgained FAU 443-280 and LOST (-2 TOs)

Georgia Southern outgained Georgia State 488-378 and lost by 7

VT ran for 241

Houston outgained SMU 489-355

Illinois only rushed for 107 on 30att vs Rutgers

Kansas State only outgained TCU 388-340, won by 19

UMass ran for 210 (4.56) on Liberty

Texas State went with Vitt at QB, 6-13-62-0-1 was their passing production

Michigan outgained MSU 552 (82 plays) - 401 (63 plays)

MTSU only gained 287 TY but scored 35 pts to beat USM 35-10, USM - 5 TOs, MTSU -3 TOs

Miss State 74 plays 438, UK 48 plays 216 (UK - 4 turnovers)

UNLV ran for 10 yards, Nevada ran for 22

Nebraska -4 turnovers (surprise!)

Minn ran for 308

UNC outgained Notre Dame by 39 yards, lost by 10, 564-525

Kansas had 7 first downs

Oregon passed for 568!

Pitt outgained Miami 587 (79 plays) to 499 (67 plays), Pitt lost 2 turnovers, Miami 1

Rice outgained North Texas by 76y, lost in OT, no turnovers either team

Wyoming actually gained 400y!, lost 2 turnovers

Akransas State lost 4 turnovers, outgained by 200y

Washington outgained Stanford 375-265, Stanford -3 turnvoers

Syracuse outrushed BC 293-71

Tulane lost 4 turnvoers to Cincy (UC lost 1). Tulane outrushed them 187-124

Navy did not complete a pass in their win at Tulsa (attempted 4)

Utah ran for 290

WF gained 266 rushing and 411 passing

ISU ran for 239, but WVU passed for 370

Iowa ran for 24y, Wisconsin ran for 169, Badgers outgained them 273-156 (Iowa -3 turnovers)

Thank you.

 

[s--k]

Thank you.

I did that run down pretty quick from the Pointwise newsletter. You can get it in Mark's newsletter thread. Their box score stat summaries are easy to read. If they gave us 3rd down%, RZ conversions and ST/D scores for non-offensive TDs it would be perfect.

 

[2daBank]

Wow -- I still haven't seen it. I was sitting on a train with my family checking the play-by-play on my phone. All I know is it cost me a lot of money (I was on the under).

It even worse than you can imagine. The only thing I’d say bout under is if the kid would have ran the play correctly fsu might have scored. So you were getting burnt either way! Lol